Golf Bets 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
The Doha course has not suited Kaymer in the past - why would it now?
"Having arrived here three times in stellar form only to fail miserably each time, one must assume there is something about the layout that doesn't fit Kaymer's game."
Paul Krishnamurty finds plenty of reasons to doubt [7.8] market favourite Martin Kaymer in Qatar this week, and finds a pair of players with which to oppose the German genius
If the new season were your first experience of golf betting, it would be easy to conclude that whereas the PGA Tour was a wide-open mug's game, picking Race to Dubai winners is as easy as shelling peas.
While the shortest priced winner of the four US events so far has been [90.0], the favourite has won the last three 'European' events. After scouring recent Euro Tour schedules, I can find no precedent for such a run, though I'm sure somebody with a longer memory can remember the last time it happened. Nor has the trend been restricted to favourites - the previous two winners started as third and second favourite.
It would of course be wrong to assume that those trends reflect anything deeper over the long-term. After all, the 2010 season saw only six favourites win throughout the entire year, and the general consensus is that the European Tour is becoming ever more competitive. Nevertheless, recent results at the Qatar Masters point to another predictable winner. Since this event began to attract top international stars halfway through the last decade, one of them has tended to win.
A golden opportunity for Martin Kaymer to deliver a fourth straight win for favourite backers and become world number one, then? Mike Norman certainly thinks so and punters have been quick to steam into odds of [7.8] about the German. I have to disagree.
I should add that has absolutely nothing to do with my wider view about Kaymer, who I agree will become world number one soon. Indeed, the last time he had such an opportunity at last autumn's Valderrama Masters, I tipped him at an almost identical price. Kaymer failed miserably on that occasion - perhaps due to the pressure, but that isn't part of my reasoning. He lacks nothing in the bottle department. Instead, my opposition is based on three grounds - price, opposition and most importantly, the course.
There is no sense in trying to find fault with Kaymer's performance to win his third Abu Dhabi title, because there were none. It was almost perfect, 'machine' golf. However, we already knew that the course was absolutely perfect for him on the basis of previous renewals, so there's no reason to assume he'll be anywhere near so dominant elsewhere. Against a field that also includes three other members of the world's top-seven, [7.8] is a very short price about anyone, especially given serious doubts about Kaymer's suitability for this Doha course.
Kaymer has played Doha three times, with a best result of just 31st. I suppose he could be forgiven at least one of the failures, as it came immediately after winning his first title. Many youngsters suffer such a reaction. But having arrived here three times in stellar form only to fail miserably each time, one must assume there is something about the layout that doesn't fit. I suspect it has much to do with tricky, undulating Bermuda greens, that are different and slower than at Abu Dhabi. Kaymer certainly wouldn't be the first classy player to struggle to get the hang of them.
Given those previous Doha failures, the best value may lie in laying Kaymer to finish in the top-ten and top-five. As for alternative picks, refer to my recent "Five to follow during the Desert Swing" piece. In addition to discussing Kaymer's prospects around these different layouts, Alvaro Quiros and Chris Wood were identified as players to follow. Quiros absolutely loves this layout, finishing first and second in the last two years, even when not quite at his best. A top-ten on a less suitable layout in Bahrain is the ideal prep.
Wood also took the eye on last year's Doha debut, starting poorly with 75 before fighting back to register a top-15 finish. He's started the season well and looks as likely a first-time winner as anyone. Moreover, the strong winds forecast this week are right up his street, as illustrated by top-fives on his first two cracks at the Open Championship.
Recommended Bets:
Lay Martin Kaymer to make the top-five @ [2.9]
Lay Martin Kaymer to make the top-ten @ [1.9]
Back Alvaro Quiros @ [16.5]
Back Chris Wood @ [70.0]
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