"But there has been a strong suspicion that this pace-setter/prominent racer will be just as effective, if not more so, over a shorter trip like this, and I can see him running a big race from the front from a decent stall in six."
Back Bobby’s Kitchen @ 15.014/1 or better - 21:05 Santa Anita
Breeders' Cup Saturday is one of the highlight of the racing calendar, so with so much top class action on show we asked our regular tipster Tony Calvin to provide his bets bets of the night...
Having been lucky enough to have attended a few Breeders' Cups - though my first visit, to a rain-soaked Monmouth Park in 2007 wasn't the greatest advert for the sport - it is fair to say that I am a fan of the meeting.
Whether or not it should be split into two days is another matter - it should be a day-long occasion like the Dubai World Cup, especially with fine weather pretty much guaranteed in California - and the simple fact is, like the action in the desert, it doesn't really grab the attention of punters in the UK.
They simply don't know enough about the US horses and dirt racing to really unload, and the timing clearly doesn't help either. Which made those PR "gravy train" trips to Santa Anita and Dubai a bit hard to justify - impossible in fact, if truth be told - and probably explains why the Racing Post, Guardian and Telegraph are the only newspapers to have sent one reporter to this meeting.
But Breeders' Cup 2008 in Santa Anita was the scene for one of my most enjoyable punting moments, when Raven's Pass stormed through the gloom to take the Classic from Henrythenavigator and land the travelling UK media and journo syndicate the Pick 6 (equivalent of our Scoop 6) and hefty four-figure wins all round.
I even think I smiled.
It is undoubtedly a top-class meeting, even if the number of high-profile withdrawals this year - from Wise Dan downwards - is far greater than that of British Champions Day, but I tend to make this meeting a small-stakes interest card.
Be sure to check out the Timeform's cards, ratings and information on www.timeform.com, as they are an invaluable guide to the night's punting.
There are three bets worth having, but I'll go through the card in chronological order and touch on them one by one.
The opening Juvenile Fillies Dirt at 19:05 is not for me - that's a proper guessing game, and Timeform only have 6lb between the top six in their ratings - and I originally thought there was plenty of mileage in opposing Dank in the Filly & Mare Turf at 19:43.
For all that there is a quiet confidence emanating from the Stoute camp about her chances of retaining her title, her price is very skinny considering she hasn't raced since coming back very poorly indeed from Royal Ascot and Timeform only have her 4lb clear of these, too, so she has to be pretty near her best to be winning such a competitive race.
I went round in circles before deciding to sit this out, but I suspect I may end up place laying Dank if she gets too short near the off.
I moved swiftly past the Filly & Mare Sprint at 20:21 but I am going to take a shot at Bobby's Kitten at odds of 15.014/1 or better in the Turf Sprint at 21:05, though I wouldn't be all surprised were Caspar Netscher to come late and hard and go close here.
The angle often used in UK Sprints is latching on to a high-class miler stepping down in trip, and that is what we have with the selection.
He was third in the Juvenile Turf here last season and has been campaigned between 1m and 1m2f since, last time out finishing third to Trade Storm in the Woodbine Mile.
But there has been a strong suspicion that this pace-setter/prominent racer will be just as effective, if not more so, over a shorter trip like this, and I can see him running a big race from the front from a decent stall in six.
He is very keen, so giving him his head over a sprint trip could be just the job. And he is also only 3lb off Timeform's top-rated horse, and may even improve for the step down in distance.
Even in the absence of American Pharoah, the Breeders Cup Juvenile Dirt at 21:43 this year looks a very strong renewal for the home team, with Daredevil the clear form pick on his Champagne Stakes win, and stablemate Carpe Diem is also highly-rated after his runaway Futurity win.
But I think the horse that Daredevil beat at Belmont last time, Upstart, could be worth a small each-way play at odds of 13.012/1.
There was no disgrace in his second there but it could be that the "sloppy" conditions that day were not in his favour and his earlier wins at Saratoga saw him to be very effective on a faster track.
Timeform actually have him second top-rated in here, so a win and place play against the big two looks justified.
I think Flintshire is the likeliest European winner of the night in the Turf but I can't get overly-enthused about odds of around 11-4 given his win record, and predictably nothing floats my boat in the Dirt Sprint.
For some reason, I have never warmed to Toronado and although he is the best horse in the race in the Mile I cannot have him on my mind at around 9-4 in such a deep field around this tight track.
As with the Filly and Mare Turf though, I can't pinpoint any attractive bets against him, so I could well end up laying him for a place.
But for my final bet of the night I am going to suggest another each-way play at the 6-1 mark, and suggest Tonalist at odds of 7.413/2 in the Classic at 00:35.
The unbeaten Shared Belief has the best form coming into this race and is hard to knock, but that is why he is a 7-4 poke, and Tonalist offers a solid each-way alternative.
He doesn't have much to find with the favourite on the evidence of a career-best win in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Stakes at Belmont last time - what, with the Champagne and Futurity Stakes etc, did we nick all the titles of US races, or vice versa, by the way? - and he could still be improving. And, as a 1m4f winner, we know that he will stay if this turns into a grinding war of attrition again.
It'll be disappointing if he is out of the first three. But I'll be keeping stakes low.
Good luck.
Recommended Bets (all Santa Anita)
Back Bobby's Kitchen @ 15.014/1 or better - 21:05
Back Upstart @ 13.012/1 or better - 21:43
Back Upstart to Place @ 4.03/1 or better - 21:43
Back Tonalist @ 7.413/2 or better - 00:35
Back Tonalist to Place @ 2.77/4 or better - 00:35
