The lack of width upfront could lead to a surprise in the corners market
Chelsea v Barcelona, Wednesday 7:45, ITV1.
Match odds: Chelsea 5.55/1, Barcelona 1.731/1, The Draw 4.04/1
Barcelona may be favourites for this game and even stronger favourites for the tie, but expect Pep Guardiola to give Chelsea a lot of respect with his overall strategy and approach.
Guardiola remembers the tie at Stamford Bridge three years ago, when Chelsea came within minutes of knocking out Barcelona. Much has changed since then, at both clubs, but Guardiola expects a physical, powerful performance from Roberto Di Matteo's side here.
Therefore, he is likely to beef up his midfield. Rather than play three out-and-out forwards, Lionel Messi is likely to play alongside Alexis Sanchez upfront, with a nominal midfielder - Cesc Fabregas or Andres Iniesta - the third-highest player up the pitch, and the other deeper alongside Xavi Hernandez and Sergio Busquets. Another option would be to play Seydou Keita in the centre, though he has struggled for fitness in recent weeks.
The likely lack of width upfront could lead to a surprise in the corners market - Barcelona don't win many corners away from home in big games (three and two in the two away games at Milan this year, five at Real Madrid and three at Valencia in the league) and I'll back Chelsea to win more corners at 3.13/1.
At the back, Barcelona will probably play a back four rather than the more risky back three, and the big question mark is at left-back - Carles Puyol could play out there, with Gerard Pique and Javier Mascherano in the centre. Adriano would be a more adventurous option, but Guardiola is more likely to play it safe.
Roberto Di Matteo's major selection decision is between Didier Drogba and Fernando Torres upfront. Stylistically, Torres at his peak would be handy for getting in behind the Barcelona defence - and he had a great record against them in his Atletico Madrid days - but his form is clearly a greater consideration, and Drogba seems the better option. Mascherano may be comfortable at the back these days, but he's still not particularly powerful in the air, so Drogba is a decent option against him.
Di Matteo may look to the strategy Real Madrid used in last year's Copa Del Rey final, where they concentrated on getting the ball wide, before crossing for Cristiano Ronaldo and Pepe to challenge for in the air. Guardiola might respond to the threat of Drogba by asking his centre-backs to switch around during play, and making sure his best aerial centre-back stays with Drogba regardless of which side of the pitch he is on.
In deeper positions, expect Di Matteo to play physical but mobile players. Ramires is perfect for this game, in terms of his energy and his sudden burst of pace to get past Barcelona's first press. Raul Meireles could also be important, and if there's one player that might not suit this match from the start, it's Frank Lampard - who has been used deep in midfield alongside John Obi Mikel recently. Meireles and Michael Essien might be better options. There's also a decision to make at the back - Gary Cahill will probably replace David Luiz with Branislav Ivanovic at right-back, told to defend very narrow and likely to have no direct opponent if Iniesta starts on the right.
The key for Chelsea is not necessarily how to attack, but when to attack. Any approach against Barcelona will feature a period of standing off - it's just too difficult to press them for the entire game - but Di Matteo will have to combine that with either a counter-attacking threat, which Chelsea don't particularly specialise in - certainly not when compared to the 2004/05 game when they had the pace of Damien Duff on the break.
But they can look to that game for an example of a great start. There, Chelsea had a brilliant early spell of pressure and went 3-0 up after 20 minutes, then struck again in the final 15 minutes to progress. It may be entirely coincidental, but that approach would work well here - Barcelona are often slow to get going and settle down into their rhythm, as Real Madrid have showed by successfully pressing them at the start of matches. They can also tire late on after pressing so heavily, as Arsenal showed twice at the Emirates by turning 0-2 and 0-1 into 2-2 and 2-1 with late rallies.
Barcelona have learned from the Arsenal displays, and are now tighter at the back late on. But the early pressure could work, before Barcelona's dominance becomes clear, so I'll back Barcelona to win from behind at 10.09/1.
Recommended bets:
Chelsea in Corners Match Bet at 3.13/1
Barcelona to win from behind at 10.09/1
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