Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Final day three

Timeform Radio Tip / David Cleary / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will David's picks be first over the line?

"The Group 1 Nassau Stakes at 15:10 brings together three top-class fillies or mares, but at the likely prices Crystal Capella has to be backed."

David Cleary has selected a trio of promising bets on day five at Glorious Goodwood...

Glorious Goodwood has been providing a feast of exciting, top-quality racing all week and the final afternoon should produce more of the same.

The Group 1 Nassau Stakes at 15:10 brings together three top-class fillies or mares, but at the likely prices Crystal Capella has to be backed. She hasn't stood much racing in recent seasons but she showed just what she's capable of in the Princess of Wales's Stakes at Newmarket last time, a career best effort. In contrast, both her main rivals were below form last time, Midday particularly so in Ireland, while Snow Fairy, with just one run this year, has yet to show she's fully trained on. The drop back to a mile-and-a-quarter seems to be the main reason behind Crystal Capella's price, but she was good enough to beat Dar Re Mi at the trip as a four-year-old.

The Stewards' Cup at 15:45 looks predictably hard to solve, with the absence of too much obvious pace and the usual conundrum of the draw. Perhaps the most interesting runners are drawn low, with Macs Power and Mon Cadeaux nearest the far rail. Macs Power has an obvious chance, while Mon Cadeaux is among the best handicapped in the field and shapes as if he could even benefit from dropping back to six furlongs.

The staying handicap at 14:35 is open but Sharaayeen has untapped potential and a step up in trip could be just the thing to unlock it. Investissement rates the danger.

Recommended Bets
Back Crystal Capella @ [6.0] in the15.10 at Goodwood
Back Sharaayeen @ [8.4] in the 14.35 at Goodwood
Back Mon Cadeaux @ [42.0] in the 15.45 Goodwood

Glorious Goodwood's Friday card is perhaps the most punter friendly of a very tough week. Handicap good thing Green Destiny and unbeaten juvenile Harbour Watch are among the leading attractions as Timeform Radio Pundit Graham Cunningham runs the rule over the best of the action....

Almost anything would seem humdrum after the brilliance of Frankel yesterday but the third day of Glorious Goodwood will do its best not to. Punting won't be easy, with some wide-open looking races all the way, but there are a couple of races which appeal to David Cleary....

David Cleary is off to Glorious Goodwood this afternoon and he's opted for the value on day one......

Betfair website

Michael Vaughan: Broad lifeline means I'm backing England

England Cricket / Michael Vaughan / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Broad celebrates his hat-trick

"Strauss might have thought England were out of it as Yuvraj and Dravid looked set to pile on the runs. However, after Broad's superb hat-trick, the hosts will be feeling buoyant."

Stuart Broad was the star on day two once again - this time with the ball - and ex-England skipper Michael Vaughan is convinced that England can now go on and triumph...

At the end of a great day at Trent Bridge, England's will be the happier dressing room. The Betfair markets may disagree but I'm sticking with the home team to win the second Test.

They've been given a lifeline by Stuart Broad. On day one, he turned England's fortunes around with a superb innings of 64 and, on day two, he changed the course of the game again with Test best bowling figures of 6 for 46. In the space of a fortnight, he's turned his own form around too and now looks far more at ease with himself.

You can back England at [2.78] to win the match, with India [1.87] and an unlikely draw at [9.0]. India may have scored the bigger first innings total and England would have liked to have ended the day with all wickets intact but they are playing with momentum and conviction. They could win the match on day three but a fourth day is more likely and I still see them winning in Monday's final session at [3.55].

Two hours before the close of play, I feared for England and Andrew Strauss might have thought his team were out of it as Yuvraj Singh and Rahul Dravid looked set to pile on the runs. However, after Broad's superb hat-trick, England will be feeling buoyant.

It's now up to the batsman to make the most of the platform that Broad has give them. Jonathan Trott's injury is a big blow - he's going to be sore and will probably not be able to do much more than come in and block - but England must bat 90 overs. If they can do that they will win this match. They should look to make around 270 on Sunday and then let the attack go all out at India on Monday.

So who will get the runs? Ian Bell may relish his chance to perform at number three and Strauss could do with a captain's innings. However, I have a feeling that someone further down the order could come in and succeed with a bold, aggressive innings, similar to the way Broad did on day one. I won't back the Nottinghamshire man though; instead, I'll have a bet on Any Other Batsman at [3.9] because I can see Matt Prior coming in and smashing it.

After that it will be down to England's bowlers. Dravid and Yuvraj showed their class on Saturday but the Indian tail is woefully long, as Broad demonstrated. Mahendra Dhoni is out of sorts with the bat and the gloves and the tourists are lacking leadership. The pitch is a bit of a gremlin too and the bounce is working in England's favour. Put simply, India don't like it and I can't see things improving for them. Game on, England.

Recommended Bets
Back England @ [2.46] 3pts
Back Day Four Evening @ [2.7] in the Test Match End Market 2pts
Back Any Other Batsman @ [3.9] to England Second Innings Top Bat 1pt

Another thrilling day's cricket draws to a close with India on top, but only just. Andrew Hughes has the details of Saturday's play and looks ahead to tomorrow.

It was hard to take your eye off the action on a dramatic opening day to this Second Test. Andrew Hughes brings us up to date with Friday's events and looks ahead to Saturday's action.

The momentum is with England after Monday evening's events and they can go 2-0 when we head to Nottingham, where conditions will assist the bowlers and mean the match is unlikely to go the distance....

Betfair website

Follow The Money: Sporting chance at Glorious Goodwood?

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Blue sky, sunshine and great racing...

"At Goodwood for the negative of the day in the 16:20, the horse is Sports Section has drifted from [2.9] out to [3.5]."

This afternoon's Follow The Money movers come from Goodwood and Newmarket...

We start in the first at Goodwood at 14:05 and the horse in question is Dubai Media who has been backed from [30.0] in to [19.5]. Ed Dunlop's four-year-old won twice last year, the first of them being around this time of year. Since then she has not quite had her best conditions and a fast run race, over 6 furlongs and on drying ground could be ideal for her today. She is one of the most lightly raced in the field so still might still have some improvement to come.

Over to Newmarket we go for the 15:55 which has seen a positive move for Luca Cumani's Bourne, having been backed from [3.95] into [3.45] The five-year-old and been largely consistent since his three maiden runs. Last time the gelding was a good second to the old boy Halicarnassus, that day though it looked like he didn't stay that well and today will be far more happier over the 1 mile 2 furlong trip. It's also worth noting that all three of his wins have been over this trip. The Luca Cumani stable have had two winners in the last three days including yesterday's Goodwood winner Drunken Sailor, everything point to a big run today.

Lastly we are back at Goodwood for the negative of the day in the 16:20, the horse is Sports Section who has drifted from [2.9] out to [3.5]. On his only start he was second at Newmarket over today's seven furlongs. It was a good run that day, the worry though would be the form could look suspect in that race. The favourite that day was well beaten and the first eight or nine home that day finished quite bunched up. Today's drying ground today could be a worry along with the fact today he takes on some very promising types.

Recommended Bets
Back Dubai Media @ [19.5], Goodwood 14:05
Back Bourne @ [3.45], Newmarket 15:55
Lay Sports Section @ [3.5], Goodwood 16:20

In Follow The Money's usual offering, two backs and one lay are as ever, the order of the day....

Today's Follow The Money comes from Stratford and Goodwood....

The Follow the Money team serve up a Sussex Stakes special and provide a couple of other promising bets......

Betfair website

Nick Shiambouros' Patented 80/20 Bet: Goodwood, 15:45

80/20 / Nick Shiambouros / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Nick crown five a Glorious few days with a Saturday afternoon winner?

Today's 80/20 is Crown Choice in the 15.45 at Goodwood. This gelding finished fifth to Brae Hill at HQ earlier this month. He kept on strongly inside the final furlong and was not beaten all that far. He will be suited by the furious early pace today and should be putting in his best work in the closing stages. I think he could run well at a big price. At present he is trading at [22.0] on the exchange

Nick will be trying to crack this 80/20 business once again by picking a horse running at Goodwood this afternoon....

Can Nick's selection miraculously beat the field at Goodwood today?...

Nick talks us through the reasoning of his glorious selection for today....

Betfair website

Timeform Daily: Sunday, Chester 15:30

Race of the Day / Timeform / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

The listed Queensferry Stakes is due off at 15:30

"Anne of Kiev has been a revelation this year and could well add to her listed win at Haydock..."

The listed Queensferry Stakes around Chester's sharp 6f looks one of the highlights of a busy Sunday afternoon...

Baby Strange is a hold-up performer who won 5f AW handicap in March. Has caught eye finishing well on couple of occasions since but has stiff task here for all he's got best of draw. Engaged 2.05 Goodwood Saturday.

Blue Jack improved in 2010, winning Newbury handicap and listed race here. Struggled to get back to that level this time round, and is best at 5f.

Rock Jock was useful and consistent last year, and posted his best effort of 2011 when fourth in hot 28-runner handicap at the Curragh (6f) last month. Poorly drawn when third in listed race since.

Silaah thrived on AW over winter, winning twice before second at Meydan and Lingfield. Only once repeated that form since though, and others have more convincing claims.

Star Rover finds winning difficult nowadays. Still has plenty of pace and runner-up in C&D handicap earlier in month, but up against it in this company.

Anne of Kiev is a hold-up sprinter much improved on AW over winter and has continued the good work on turf since, winning listed race at Haydock in May. Not at best last time but leading player if getting the breaks.

Lexi's Hero is a strong-travelling front runner who's thriving this season, winning 6f handicaps here and at York. Another fine effort when blinkered at Newmarket last time but wide draw here a worry.

Rose Blossom won a 6f Group 3 at York last summer but not easy to predict this year. Has been set some stiff tasks, but her failure to see her races out has become a worry.

Tropical Treat readily landed listed event at Ayr last summer and improved when neck second to Rose Blossom in Summer Stakes at York next time. Ended 2010 out of form and no sign of revival on return, however.

Button Moon has been much improved this season, placed in listed contest in Germany in May, but sixth at best in similar races here and below form in handicap last time. Cheekpieces now replaced by blinkers.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Anne of Kiev
2. Lexi's Hero
3. Rock Jock

Timeform's View: Anne of Kiev has been a revelation this year and could well add to her listed win at Haydock with a fast pace seemingly guaranteed. Stall 9 isn't a help for Lexi's Hero but he can still put up a good fight, while the more favourably-berthed Rock Jock is another in with a shout.

The Group 1 Nassau Stakes is the highlight on the final day of Glorious Goodwood, can Midday make it three in a row? Read our runner-by-runner guide......

The intriguing Glorious Stakes is the highlight of the penultimate day of the Goodwood meeting. Read our runner-by-runner guide......

The Group 2 Goodwood Cup is one of the most popular spectacles of the flat season. Read our runner-by-runner guide......

Betfair website

Afternoon Market Movers: Saturday July 30

Market Movers / Editor / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

This afternoon's market movers and from the UK and Ireland...

Goodwood

14.35
Captain John Nixon 10.0 in to 8.4
Investissement 17.5 in to 13.5
Sabotage 27.0 in to 21.0

15.10
Principal Role 18.5 in to 14.5

15.45
Colonel Mak 21.27 in to 15.5
Edinburgh Night 6.77 out to 18.0
High Standing 36.0 in to 27.0

16.20
Sports Section 2.72 out to 3.2
Mickdaam 6.6 in to 5.4
Niceofyoutotellme 8.6 in to 6.8

16.55
Avon Pearl 10.2 in to 7.0
Amis Reunis 6.2 out to 8.2
Apostle 6.4 out to 7.6

Newmarket

14.20
Lay Time 4.45 in to 3.75

14.50
Nearly a Gift 9.4 out to 14.0

15.25
Really Lovely 6.4 out to 11.0

16.05
El Muqbil 8.6 in to 6.6

17.15
Full Speed 5.8 in to 4.8

17.50
Zero Money 4.76 out to 5.9
Lujeanie 10.0 in to 8.8

Doncaster

14.10
Siouxperhero 2.91 out to 3.35
Mister Bob 9.2 in to 8.0

14.45
Palace Moon 5.96 out to 9.2

15.55
Bourne 3.9 in to 3.3

Thirsk

13.55
Bang Tidy 8.6 in to 5.5
Full Support 6.6 out to 19.0

14.30
Guru Girl 5.4 out to 6.4

16.45
Simple Jim 2.97 in to 2.56

Galway

14.25
Natural High 2.28 in to 1.86

14.55
Silverhand 6.96 in to 6.2

This evening's market movers from Hamilton and Lingfield......

All the early price movements on Betfair's racing markets....

Betfair website

Evening Market Movers: Saturday July 30

Market Movers / Editor / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

This evening's market movers from Hamilton and Lingfield...

Hamilton

19:10
Dancing Freddy 12.0 in to 8.60
Bosun Breese 6.0 out to 8.80

19:40
Countrywide Flame 3.50 out to 4.50
Sharp Sovereign 3.20 out to 3.90

20:10
Bouncy Bouncy 4.0 out to 5.60

Lingfield

17:55
Dies Solis 6.02 out to 6.80

18:55
Starwatch 13.0 in to 5.0
Italian Tom 4.30 out to 6.20

19:55
Gin Twist 2.64 out to 3.05

This afternoon's market movers and from the UK and Ireland......

All the early price movements on Betfair's racing markets....

Betfair website

Doncaster

Daily Racing Info / Editor / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

First Race Time: 14:10
Going: Good to Firm
Other Information: Dry overnight and a fine day forecast

All the early price movements on Betfair's racing markets....

Racecourse Bangor First Race Time 2.10pm Going Good (watered) Other Information Dry overnight...

Racecourse Goodwood First Race Time 2.00pm Going Good to Firm, Good in places Other Information The track was selectively watered overnight...

Betfair website

Thirsk

Going Report / Editor / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

First Race Time: 13:55
Going: Good, Good to Firm in places
Other Information: Dry overnight

First Race Time: 14:05 Going: Good to Firm, Good in places Other Information: A light shower overnight, fine and dry today....

First Race Time: 14:10 Going: Good to Firm Other Information: Dry overnight and a fine day forecast...

First Race Time: 14:20 Going: Good to firm Other Information: Dry overnight. Sunny spells today, 21ºC....

Betfair website

England v India Day Two: Close of play summary

England Cricket / Andrew Hughes / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Broad’s spell brought back memories of 1981

"But though India may hold the advantage, England will be on a high after a blistering spell of bowling from Stuart Broad blew away the Indian batting order."

Another thrilling day's cricket draws to a close with India on top, but only just. Andrew Hughes has the details of Saturday's play and looks ahead to tomorrow.

What a Test match! Only two days gone and we're already into the third innings. Saturday ended with India on top, holding a 43 run lead that could prove vital. I'm not sure I'd have them as short as [1.85] in the match odds market, but the big problem for England and the reason why punters should be reluctant to lump on them at [2.82] is the absence of Jonathan Trott. He suffered a nasty shoulder injury and will not bat again, which means they are effectively 24-2 at the close, with lots of work to do.

But though India may hold the advantage, England will be on a high after a blistering spell of bowling from Stuart Broad blew away the Indian batting order. Having been poised to build a match-winning lead at 267-4, they were skittled for 288. It was to England's credit that they had remained patient throughout a day when Rahul Dravid, VVS Laxman and Yuvraj Singh dealt effectively with a tricky pitch.

So what can we expect on Sunday? England's best hope is to attack, because on this deteriorating surface, sooner or later every batsman can expect an unplayable ball. A lead of anything over 200 could prove difficult for India to chase down. And if the game continues to rattle along, we could well be looking at a Day Three finish, an eventuality that you can back at around [5.0] in the Test Match End market.

Stuart Broad was the star on day two once again - this time with the ball - and ex-England skipper Michael Vaughan is convinced that England can now go on and triumph......

It was hard to take your eye off the action on a dramatic opening day to this Second Test. Andrew Hughes brings us up to date with Friday's events and looks ahead to Saturday's action.

The momentum is with England after Monday evening's events and they can go 2-0 when we head to Nottingham, where conditions will assist the bowlers and mean the match is unlikely to go the distance....

Betfair website

Timeform US Tips: Saturday July 30

US 1-2-3 / Timeform / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

There's some top-class Stateside action tonight, including the Grade 1 Diana Handicap at Saratoga (22:12 BST), but the best bets are at Delaware and Monmouth...

Delaware race 6 (20:30 BST) win back #9 STOLZ at [3.0] or longer

Monmouth race 8 (21:22 BST) win back #4 TANGLED TANGO at [3.0] or longer

Delaware race 8 (21:24 BST) win back #3 SPORTING HOLIDAY at [4.0] or longer

Don't forget, there's a guaranteed $500k pick 4 at Saratoga tonight (first race 21:39 BST). Why not use the Timeform Free Form Site to make your selections, or click HERE to place your bet on Betfair.

The Timeform US tipping service was back to form with a bang on Thursday, with 3 successful recommendations out of 3. Let's hope for more of the same with this trio for tonight......

Timeform's successful US tipping service brings you three horses to back tonight.........

Once you have got all of the UK meetings out of the way today, settle down for a night of racing in the US and make sure you back these three selections......

Betfair website

Goodwood Placepot: Saturday July 30

Daily Placepots / Mark Powell-Bevan / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Crystal Capella is the sole selection in the Nassau

"it is Crystal Capella who could prove key to the race, as while today’s circumstances are very different to those she faced when dotting up at Newmarket last time (had Redwood 8 lengths back in second), she’s never been short of speed..."

With the Stewards' and the consolation to negotiate among today's Goodwood placepot this could easily go very wrong, but the 'pot' is going to dwarf any of the others and it's a case of 'you've got to be in it to win it', so here goes...

14:05 - The consolation race for those who didn't make the Stewards' Cup is no easier to solve than the main event itself, but Thunderball seems an obvious starting point having looked much improved dropped to 6f for the first time since his debut when winning at Pontefract last time, for which he has just a 3-lb penalty. Golden Desert ran well at the meeting earlier in the week and is also worth keeping on side among those drawn high, whilst towards the other side it could be worth chancing that Kevin Ryan can work his magic with the well-handicapped Courageous, who just hasn't fired as expected for Dandy Nicholls. Klynch also earns a place in the line-up for the good work he's done thus far this year, his latest run easily excused.

14:35 - It's not getting any easier, but in Harlestone Times we have a strong one to go to war with in this handicap, as while his run when favourite in the Northumberland Plate was tame, stamina could well have been the issue and his previous form is strong, including a win at Goodwood. The race is competitive, however, so it's worth insurance in the shape of Sharaayeen, who shaped much better than the bare result in trying to come from a hopeless position in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock last time.

15:10 - The defection of Misty For Me takes away from what looked a stellar Nassau, but it is still a classy race and it's hard to make a decision on whom to include. The front three in the market all have plenty going for them, Midday of course going for a hat-trick of Nassau wins, but it is Crystal Capella who could prove key to the race, as while today's circumstances are very different to those she faced when dotting up at Newmarket last time (had Redwood 8 lengths back in second), she's never been short of speed and strikes as a typical Stoute filly that keeps on progressing.

15:45 - We're not in a position to learn anything about the draw from race one so far as the placepot goes, so it has to be a case of spreading the selections out again. Mac's Power, from the Fanshawe stable which has been having it right off with its sprinters this year, is a must, and joining him from the low draws is the back-to-form Secret Asset, who won (over 5f) at the meeting earlier in the week. Hoof It is the obvious one among the high numbers, but he had a hard race at York a week ago, so instead go for Wokingham third Pastoral Player and another one drawn high in Colonel Mak, who looks to be recovering the form that saw him win the Ayr Silver Cup last autumn.

16:20 - Sports Section and Mickdaam stand out on what they achieved on debut in the same maiden at Newmarket, one that has been won in recent years by the likes of Rio de La Plata, Elusive Pimpernel and Native Khan, but it's sensible to take only one from that form line (Sports Section, who has an excellent pedigree and shaped as well as any in finishing second) and look elsewhere for a back-up. Nawaar is the one to turn to, as he shaped with plenty of promise when third on his Ascot debut and is sure to have improved for that experience.

16:55 - A tricky nursery to end, but Amis Reunis looks to have got in lightly despite having won twice (in good times) already and is taken as a banker to see us home. She accounted for a speedy sort at Bath last time in spite of keeping to 5f if anything, so 6f should be in her favour and her market strength that day was notable, too.

Selections
14:05 - 2, 10, 12, 20
14:35 - 4, 11
15:10 - 1
15:45 - 6, 12, 15, 24
16:20 - 11, 15
16:55 - 12
= 64 lines

We head to Goodwood again for another crack at the Placepot, with Joe Szekeres' selections including no fewer than four runners from the Richard Hannon stable......

With a punting record at Goodwood similar to that of Newcastle United's success in the Premier League, Timeform's Paul Robson is leaving his Panama in the cupboard and has chosen Nottingham to crack the Placepot....

The placepot at Glorious Goodwood includes the Sussex Stakes and two difficult looking handicaps but Timeform's Joe Szekeres believes he has found the horses to provide a solution......

Betfair website

Goodwood

Going Report / Editor / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

First Race Time: 14:05
Going: Good to Firm, Good in places
Other Information: A light shower overnight, fine and dry today.

First Race Time: 13:55 Going: Good, Good to Firm in places Other Information: Dry overnight...

First Race Time: 14:10 Going: Good to Firm Other Information: Dry overnight and a fine day forecast...

First Race Time: 14:20 Going: Good to firm Other Information: Dry overnight. Sunny spells today, 21ºC....

Betfair website

Hungarian Grand Prix: Can Vettel hold off the Brits?

Formula One / James Frankland / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

The front three for Sunday's Grand Prix

"Vettel was top of Saturday’s practice session by three tenths of a second, and secured an eighth pole position of the season later in the day."

The world champion is in pole position but, with the two McLarens directly behind him, does James Frankland believe we might see a consecutive British victory?

Red Bull always seem to find time when they need it most. Having finished behind Lewis Hamilton in both of Friday's free practice sessions, the Milton Keynes-based team used up the first of their curfew allocations to work deep into the night on Sebastian Vettel's car. The result? Vettel was top of Saturday's practice session by three tenths of a second, and secured an eighth pole position of the season later in the day.

Red Bull needed to up their game in the face of a determined push from McLaren, who qualified second and third in Hungary, Hamilton shading Jenson Button by less than half a tenth. The Ferrari duo occupy fourth and fifth places, Felipe Massa - returning to the track at which he suffered a fractured skull in 2009 - ahead of Fernando Alonso, who has rather better memories of this venue: it was where he scored his debut Grand Prix victory back in 2003. Last year's winner, Mark Webber, is in sixth and has an uphill task ahead of him to repeat his 2010 triumph.

Hungary is a track that does not breed overtaking, although the placement of the DRS zone, which can be used for the full length of the start/finish straight, should aid efforts this year. As ever the onus will be on whoever leads into the first corner to generate themselves at least a one second gap straight away, else they risk falling into the clutches of those behind.

At last year's race, Red Bull had a massive margin over the rest, for the circuit accentuates what makes the blue car so good - its efficient use of the downforce it generates and its grip through medium and high-speed corners. Vettel only failed to win here last year by making an uncharacteristic mistake under a safety car period and I expect he'll remember that tomorrow. His error allowed Webber to build momentum in his own championship challenge and he won't want to give Hamilton, or any of the chasing pack, the same confidence boost ahead of the four-week summer break.

Tyre strategy for cars further down the order has been key to picking up points and in Hungary, Williams have had a go at trying to give their season a boost, deliberately not running Pastor Maldonado in the second qualifying session so the rookie can start with one more fresh set of tyres. The team have suffered a difficult season with a car that is not really suited to high downforce tracks, but Maldonado knows the track well from his GP2 days and could be a good outside bet for a points finish at [5.5]. Slightly shorter odds can be found on Kamui Kobayashi [1.82] starting 13th, and the [2.82] for Paul di Resta, who starts only one place out of the points in 11th, is also worth considering.

Finally, if you fancy that come race day, Mark Webber can match his teammate's pace and join him on the Hungarian Grand Prix podium, then his odds of [3.65] are worth a look. He may need some strategic help from his pit wall colleagues to achieve that, mind.

Recommended Bets
Sebastian Vettel to win @ [2.58]
Mark Webber to finish on the podium @ [3.65]
Paul di Resta to score points @ [2.82]

He may have messed up in Germany but the World Champion has proved that he can put his rare mistakes behind him. Ralph Ellis expects Sebastian Vettel to return to winning ways this weekend....

We may have a very competitive race ahead of us on Sunday with Hamilton, Webber and Alonso very difficult to split in the betting. The weather, as ever, will play a big part, says James Frankland....

Jorge Lorenzo capitalised on a rare Casey Stoner slip-up last time out and now he senses blood. Trent Burton thinks the Spaniard can follow up......

Betfair website

Betting Briefing: Ascot stages exciting Shergar Cup meeting

Timeform Features / Timeform / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ascot is host for one of the most enjoyable meetings in racing this Saturday.

"The highlight of the week on Saturday with the Shergar Cup set to be staged at Ascot where Great Britain, Ireland, Europe and the Rest of the World will be competing to land the winning prizes..."

Timeform look ahead to next week's racing, with the highlight taking place next Saturday as Ascot stages the Shergar Cup meeting...

Sunday July 31
The Queensferry Stakes at Chester and the Chalice Stakes at Newbury take the fore on Sunday afternoon in Britain with a National Hunt meeting also coming from Market Rasen. Over in Ireland the Galway Festival draws to a close with an eight-race mixed-card and there is a Flat meeting at Cork.

Monday August 1
Ripon is the venue for afternoon Flat racing whilst Windsor and Carlisle both stage evening meetings. Newton Abbot is the host on Monday afternoon for the only Jumps fixture of the day in this country whilst over in Ireland there is National Hunt racing at Cork and action on the level at Naas.

Tuesday August 2
Bath and Catterick stage afternoon Flat racing while Ffos Las and Southwell are on during the evening. There is action over Jumps in Ireland with a single meeting taking place at Roscommon.

Wednesday August 3
There are six Flat meetings in total on Wednesday with afternoon action at Brighton, Newcastle and Pontefract. Evening meetings at Kempton and Yarmouth complete the schedule in this country while Sligo hosts a Flat meeting in Ireland.

Thursday August 4
A busy Thursday program and action on the level is set to continue this side of the Irish Sea with Brighton, Haydock and Yarmouth the three venues for afternoon racing followed by further Flat racing coming from Chepstow, Folkestone and Sandown during the evening. Over in Ireland there are two meetings as Leopardstown stages the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes over a flat mile and a half and Sligo hosts a National Hunt Card.

Friday August 5
Flat racing on Friday comes from Brighton and Lingfield during the afternoon whilst Haydock and Newmarket stage evening meetings. Worcester hosts the the only Jumps card of the afternoon with Tipperary staging two Listed Flat contests in Ireland during the evening, including the Abergwaun Stakes.

Saturday August 6
The highlight of the week on Saturday, with the Shergar Cup set to be staged at Ascot where Great Britain, Ireland, Europe and the Rest of the World will be competing to land the winning prizes. Richard Hughes will be captaining the Irish team once again as they seek to land yet another victory in the competition but the race for the Silver Saddle may prove the most fascinating contest on an action-packed afternoon.

Flat racing continues elsewhere at Haydock, Newmarket and Redcar during the afternoon with the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at HQ and the Group 3 Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock. Ayr and Lingfield complete the week's racing with evening meetings on the level and in addition to this Kilbeggan also hosts a National Hunt meeting over in Ireland.

The traditional cavalry charge over Goodwood's sharp six furlongs looks as tough to fathom as ever, but Simon Rowlands reckons there are two you must have on your side......

Wondermare Goldikova returns to the racecourse this Sunday for the first time since her defeat to Canford Cliffs at Royal Ascot and is set to face seven rivals when she attempts to land the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at Deauville for a fourth time......

Timeform give an overview of the weekend's best racing with the notable highlight being the Group 1 Nassau Stakes on the final day of Glorious Goodwood......

Betfair website

Timeform US Tips: Wednesday July 27

US 1-2-3 / Timeform / 27 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Once you have got all of the UK meetings out of the way today, settle down for a night of racing in the US and make sure you back these three selections...

Delaware race 8 (21:24 BST) win back #7 ONE FOR BISCUIT at [4.5] or longer

Evangeline Downs race 1 (23:40 BST) win back #8 POMEROSA PROSPECT at [2.8] or longer

Penn National race 5 (00:38 BST) win back #1 CANDY GAMES at [2.0] or longer

Get a free form guide for racing in the US & Canada at http://bit.ly/dP3Uvj.

Three more selections from Timeform's US team hoping to provide some winners from the other side of the Atlantic......

Three more selections from Timeform's US team, which will hopefully get the week off to a winning start......

Timeform's US team bring you the three best bets on Sunday......

Betfair website

London 2012: Exactly one year to go...

2012 Olympics / Ralph Ellis / 27 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

An aerial view of the London 2012 stadium where the track and field events will take place

"A decent bet now could be a reason to be waving the flag in front of the telly."

The London 2012 Olympics get underway a year today and Ralph Ellis believes that British chances of medals are on the increase...

If, like me, you're still sulking about not getting any tickets, it's been hard to get excited about the Olympics. We had a whole long weekend in London planned around watching cycling, athletics, table tennis, badminton and tennis and I'd put the best part of a grand aside to pay for it all. The only person who finished up happy with Seb Coe's curious ballot system was my bank manager.

Today it's starting to feel a bit different, though. We're exactly a year away from the opening ceremony, the Breakfast TV shows were full of inspiring pictures of the swimming pool (sorry, aquatics centre), and many of the papers are carrying Olympic coverage. The Daily Mail's 16-page supplement is especially good.

But while that's all well and good for some reading over coffee and biscuits, the key question for us is whether it offers any decent prospect of a winning bet. And the answer seems to be a resounding 'Yes', if you look at Betfair's market on the number of gold medals that Great Britain's team can hope to collect.

The early market makes less than 19 favourite at between [3.3] and [3.95] and I reckon the best bet at this early stage is to lay it. The Mail's experts have helpfully gone through the Games event by event listing the potential medal haul - and it comes up with a total of 70, which covers everything from archery and athletics through to weightlifting and wrestling.

You'd think less than a third of those would be gold, which would support the bet low theory. But it doesn't take into account the impact of a home crowd on performers who will spend the next year focused on just one goal. The stampede for tickets might have been bad news for those of us who missed out, but it will be good news for the home competitors who can look forward to being cheered on by massive crowds to hit the heights.

Everywhere you look there is steady improvement. In athletics, chief coach Charles van Commenee took over a failing team in 2009 and has brought drastic change. His draconian methods might have upset a few, but this is a man who believes in the principle of no gain without pain. And the impact he's having was shown last week when Mo Farah smashed the European record to go to the top of the world rankings in the 10,000 metres.

The Dutchman, who memorably guided Denise Lewis to Olympic gold and then called Kelly Sotherton a wimp for only achieving silver, thinks he has 15 medal contenders at the moment and will have more in a year's time. And if that progress is shared across other sports we could comfortably achieve 19 golds or better.

Tick the boxes in steady improvement in cycling where Mark Cavendish has just won a green jersey, and sailing where in several events the only question is which Briton wins, through rowing where we could easily beat the two golds from Beijing. I'd even give Andy Murray chances in the tennis with a reduced field from a normal Wimbledon tournament because there's only two contestants per country.

Ok, so come this time next year I'll still be sulking about not having tickets. But at least a decent bet now could be a reason to be waving the flag in front of the telly.

Five things you might not know about Charles van Commenee

1. Born June 1958 in Amsterdam, and grew up in the tough inner city area of Osdorp. Father Otto worked in a heavy industry factory. Mother Ineke was a descendant of Indonesian immigrants

2. He was a promising club runner at 200m and also competed in the decathlon before a hamstring injury finished any hope of a career. He started coaching looking after some local kids while he was doing a degree in physical education

3. After a year in the army doing national service he took up coaching full time and progressed to be the Dutch javelin coach, and by 1991 for all throwing and combined events - the job that was his first for the UK in 2001

4. He's an Ajax football fan

5. He turned down the position of UK performance director in 2004 to take the same job with Holland - and returned from Beijing with his country's highest ever medal haul

An Olympics in London without something going wrong? It doesn't sound very British to Dan Fitch, who has unearthed a host of past Olympics disasters....

Betfair website

Pre-season Friendly Betting: Barcelona v Bayern Munich

Betfair Live Video / Michael Lintorn / 27 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Bayern Munich beat Italian champions AC Milan on penalties to earn this tie

"The hosts are taking the tournament more seriously than their guests because it marks their final friendly action before the start of the new campaign."

There is another hugely appetising friendly that Betfair customers can watch for free on Wednesday, as Barcelona and Bayern Munich contest the Audi Cup Final...

This writer's suggestion to lay Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the Audi Cup semi-finals proved shrewd - unlike the under 2.5 goals suggestion for Barca's 2-2 draw with Internacional - but both progressed regardless with the aid of a penalty shootout.

The consequence is that the lucky supporters at the Allianz Arena get to see two giants of European football with four Champions League wins apiece collide in Wednesday night's final, with home advantage enough to render Bayern slight frontrunners to triumph in 90 minutes at [2.74].

Barcelona aren't far behind at [2.78], though it could be judged a surprise that they are outsiders at all given the dominant manner with which they saw off the [1.61] Bundesliga favourites 5-1 on aggregate when they last met in the Champions League quarter-finals in 2008-09.

Counting against Jupp Heynckes' side are poor recent results, their one 90-minute victory in four fixtures coming against fan club Red Bulls Taubenbach. The fact that Barcelona have started pre-season with draws against Hajduk Split and Internacional points to another as the best bet at [3.45].

One other thing worth noting is that the hosts are taking the tournament more seriously than their guests because it marks their final friendly action before the start of the new campaign, and they fielded effectively their strongest available team against AC Milan on Tuesday.

By contrast, Barcelona are without their Copa America stars Dani Alves, Javier Mascherano, Lionel Messi and new signing Alexis Sanchez, and despite the big-name absentees still opted for a mix of experience and youth, so if you play the "draw no bet" market, Bayern appear the sounder option.

There is no favourite when it comes to over/under 2.5 goals, with both options priced at [1.96], but overs looks more attractive as two of their last three clashes have filled that criteria. It is [1.63] that both sides score in this match, which Betfair customers can watch through the Live Video service.

Best Bet: The draw @ [3.45]
Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [1.96]

Few pre-season games attract 74,244 fans but this meeting of capital clubs from Germany and Spain is a rare exception that you can watch live on Betfair......

Barcelona are not as certain of victory over South American giants Internacional in the semi-finals of the Audi Cup as their odds suggest, says Michael Lintorn....

One of the most enticing friendlies of the summer is available for Betfair customers to watch on Tuesday afternoon as Valencia and PSV meet in the Karnten Cup....

Betfair website

Follow The Money: Canford Cliffs hanger?

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 27 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Canford triumph in the big race this afternoon?

"Canford Cliffs is attempting to win a race no horse has won twice."

The Follow the Money team serve up a Sussex Stakes special and provide a couple of other promising bets...

We start at Goodwood with today's negative where in the 15:10 Sussex Stakes ran over a mile Canford Cliffs has been easy to back, moving out from [2.36] to [2.60] as he attempts to win a race no horse has won twice. Richard Hannon's four-year-old has won five Group Ones in a row most notably last time out at Ascot beating the mighty Goldikova by a length. That contest six weeks ago may have had a different result if the French mare did not have to carry and extra 2lb, weight advantage could be crucial today, giving 8lb to his unbeaten three-year-old rival.

In the next Goodwood race at 15:45, Four Nations has seen significant support, moving from[11.0] into [7.4]. Amanda Perrett's three-year-old gelding has course form winning back in April over 1mile 2 furlongs. Stepping up to today's distance last time out at Newbury, he achieved a creditable second and looks set to go one better today, running off bottom weight. Considering the trainer's record in this race, victory is a distinct possibility.

At Redcar, in the 16:30, Intiqaal's price has shortened dramatically, from [8.3] into [3.8]. This is the four-year-old gelding's first run for trainer Keith Dalgleish, having previously been with Ed Dunlop. Although not having impressed after an encouraging reappearance, he is lightly-raced and his new trainer able to get the best out of him today.

Recommended Bets
Back Four Nations @ [7.4] Goodwood 15:45
Back Intiqaal @ [3.8] Redcar 16:30
Lay Canford Cliffs @ [2.6] Goodwood 15:10

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Goodwood and Beverley....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Ayr and Yarmouth....

Follow The Money give us their usual two backs and one lay based on price movements on the Exchange....

Betfair website

Goodwood Placepot: Wednesday July 27

Daily Placepots / Joe Szekeres / 27 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Frankel is one of the afternoon's three selected bankers - He goes in the 15:10

"Frankel’s victory in the 2000 Guineas ranks as one of the greatest turf performances in living memory and, if he can produce anything near that level, then the rest are playing for second place..."

The placepot at Glorious Goodwood includes the Sussex Stakes and two difficult looking handicaps but Timeform's Joe Szekeres believes he has found the horses to provide a solution...

14:00 - A 19-runner staying handicap looks a difficult place to begin on an exciting afternoon's racing at Glorious Goodwood, but a few may have crept under the handicapper's radar. It pays to respect national hunt trainers in these contests, and Liberate can deliver a late birthday present for Philip Hobbs in the opener after a long absence from flat racing having posted a career-best over fences on his penultimate start. Another fitting a similar profile is the Tim Vaughan-trained Spirit of Adjisa who secured a Grade 1 (novices) victory over timber last time out. These two selections hold good chances this afternoon and should see us through.

14:35 - Last year's winning trainer Richard Hannon dominates the Vintage, fielding four of the seven runners. His best chance is arguably with Chandlery, but he was beaten last time out by our first banker of the afternoon, Red Duke. John Quinn's colt comes into the race under a 3lb penalty but looks progressive enough to overcome the extra weight and confirm superiority over Chandlery, having looked value for a bigger margin win last time.

15:10 - Frankel takes on Canford Cliffs to decide who is the champion miler in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes and the preference lies very much with the three-year-old who is today's second banker. Frankel's victory in the 2000 Guineas ranks as one of the greatest turf performances in living memory and, if he can produce anything near that level, then the rest are playing for second place, including Canford Cliffs who is a top-class miler in his own right but one who will do incredibly well to defeat Frankel conceding 8 lb.

15:45 - Another tricky-looking handicap faces punters in leg four, but the lightly-raced Halifax can put his fifth in the Queen's Vase behind him dropping back down in trip, spared a hard ride by Richard Hughes at Ascot that day as it was clear he was running out of steam. Kieren Fallon is booked this afternoon and Halifax should go close. It would be folly to include just one selection in such a competitive handicap, and another which takes the eye is Four Nations, a winner on his seasonal reappearance over 10f at Goodwood before stepping up to today's trip and finishing second and then fifth. Four Nations came from a long way back on his latest start and, hopefully ridden slightly more positively today, should run well under up-and-coming claimer Kieran O'Neil who takes 3lb off.

16:20 - Diamond Finesse is the third and final banker of the afternoon, having put up a very solid performance on debut, challenging strongly late on against a more experienced rival to lose by a narrow margin. Two winners have emerged from that particular race and Diamond Finesse can make it a third for the Ed Dunlop yard, who rarely have their two-year-olds in peak physical condition first time out.

16:55 - The final race of today's Placepot card is arguably the trickiest leg of all, with the market suggesting that this may be one of the most open contests of the entire meeting, which is why the line-saving tactics were employed earlier. It seems obvious to start with the Timeform top-rated, Common Touch, who was impressive at York on good ground on his penultimate start before disappointing on a seemingly unsuitable soft surface at Royal Ascot. Another who should put up a good show is Zenella. Although she ran below her best when finishing sixth on her seasonal reappearance at Chester earlier this month, this lightly-raced filly should come on for the run and will be thereabouts if showing more like last year's form, which included a listed win. The final selection in the last leg is Golden Desert, one that has slipped down to his lowest handicap mark for almost two years, predominantly due to the fact that he has been racing in the most competitive of handicaps including the Wokingham and the Victoria Cup.

Selections:
14:00 - 9, 10
14:35 - 1
15:10 - 4
15:45 - 3, 12
16:20 - 2
16:55 - 4, 14, 15
= 12 lines

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The never-ending Galway Festival got underway last night and now it's the turn of Goodwood to kick off their Glorious week......

Field sizes at Ayr at today look perfect to land the Placepot with just a few lines, and Timeform's Adam Brookes believes he's found the horses to do the job ......

Today's placepot comes from Pontefract....

Betfair website