Against All Odds: Wednesday August 31

Against All Odds / Paul Robinson / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

The rules are simple. Every week day Paul Robinson will be looking to take on an odds-on shot by laying them in the match odds market.

Thanks to Port Vale holding Tranmere to a 1-1 draw last night, we're in profit for the week to a level stake and while that's pleasing, we're a greedy lot here in the Against All Odds team and want more of the green stuff in our Betfair accounts.

Our search for more winnings takes us to Ireland tonight for an FAI Cup Fourth Round Replay between Monaghan United and Sligo Rovers. The first match ended in a feisty goalless draw at Sligo's Showgrounds in a game that saw both sides reduced to 10 men. Rovers failed to get the job done on their own patch, yet are quite long odds-on tonight, which is far too short for my liking.

Monaghan sit third in the Airtricity First Division and are pushing for promotion to the elite. They have lost just once in their last six matches and are really hitting form at the right time of the season. They have scored a respectable nine goals in their last half dozen and conceded only four, including three clean sheets.

Sligo are riding high in the Airtricity Premier Division and while that may be the league above Monaghan, the difference isn't all that great, as evidenced by their failure to beat them at home last week. Their recent form isn't that hot either; just one win in six in all competitions, shipping eight goals in the process.

While I don't forsee a comfortable home victory for Monaghan this evening, I just feel that on recent form, Sligo are far too short and in what promises to be a white hot atmosphere in Gortakeegan, I'm making Sligo my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet

Lay Sligo against Monaghan @ [1.73]

The rules are simple. Every week day Paul Robinson will be looking to take on an odds-on shot by laying them in the match odds market....

The rules are simple. Every week day Paul Robinson will be looking to take on an odds-on shot by laying them in the match odds market....

The rules are simple. Every week day Paul Robinson will be looking to take on an odds-on shot by laying them in the match odds market....

Betfair website

Timeform 1-2-3 Tips: Wednesday August 31

Timeform 1-2-3 / Philip Spink / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Fast Shot looks a good thing at Carlisle this evening

"Fast Shot brings some strong form to the table, notably his defeat of York Glory and Shesastar at Doncaster last month."

Three selections for Wednesday's action from the Timeform Free Form Website...

Gordon Elliott's superb record with his raiders from across the Irish Sea is well documented and if you look deeper you'll see that when the stable goes to the effort of booking AP McCoy the numbers are even more striking. The Champion Jockey has ridden nineteen winners from fifty-two rides for the yard and the pair team up on three occasions at Hereford this afternoon, their strongest chance arguably coming in the opener with Priors Gold (14.10). The dual hurdles winner has been ticking over nicely on the Flat following a cracking effort behind the well-touted Tom Horn at Bellewstown last month and appeals as a more solid proposition than Spirit Is Needed.

The colossal 900-mile round trip that Edgware Road (14.20) will undertake to Folkestone and back from Keith Dalgleish's South Lanarkshire base doesn't look like it will be a wasted journey, with the unexposed son of Selkirk holding strong claims in the first race. Stone last in a warm Newbury maiden in April for Roger Charlton, Edgware Road made a blistering start for his new yard four months on as he forged clear in a six-furlong maiden a bit closer to home at Hamilton. An opening mark of 65 likely underestimates Edgware Road, while today's extra furlong will suit as well.

Fast Shot (18.35) is at the top of his game and can give Tim Easterby another winner at Carlisle in the sprint handicap for three-year-olds this evening. He brings some strong form to the table, notably his defeat of York Glory and Shesastar at Doncaster last month, and went down narrowly to Roninski at Catterick last time, battling well but just not quite catching Bryan Smart's charge. Off the same mark of 78, Fast Shot's claims are obvious.

Recommendations

Back Priors Gold @ [2.24] Hereford 14.10
Back Edgware Road @ [4.0] Folkestone 14.20
Back Fast Shot @ [3.0] Carlisle 18.35

Three tips from the Timeform Free Form Site on Tuesday with the bet of the day coming at Epsom......

Plenty of racing to get stuck into on Bank Holiday Monday and we've got three bets from Timeform's Free Form Site......

A selection from each of the three meetings in Britain on Sunday from the Timeform Free Form Website......

Betfair website

US Open Daily Tips: Sabine and the has been

US Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sabine Lisiscki is one of the few players who can compete with Venus Williams on the power stakes

"Hopefully the post-match talking point will be about the tennis and not about whatever foul, tasteless, fashion creation Venus will have sported. We should only have to suffer it once though, as Lisicki should end the hopes of Williams and she’s a backable [1.71] to do just that in their third career meeting."

Sean Calvert tells us why Sabine Lisicki should be far too strong for her multiple Grand Slam winner opponent tonight and what other good bets lie in wait for us on day three of the US Open.

As good as Monday was at the 2011 US Open, Tuesday was equally as bad, with some bizarre matches and a couple of painful losses for me.

Aravane Rezai tried to hit a winner from every shot and ended up spraying the ball to all parts, while Ivan Dodig and Nikolay Davydenko played out a weird five-setter that the Russian nicked.

At least another of my 'five potential first round upsets' came in when Steve Darcis beat Dmitry Tursunov at a handy price, so it wasn't all bad.

Wednesday sees the arrival of Andy Murray to the tournament - on Ashe - when he takes on Somdev Devvarman, the talented Indian player.

The Scot should come through in straight sets, but he's unbackable, so a much better proposition can be found in the match afterwards on Ashe, which should be a cracker - Sabine Lisicki v Venus Williams.

Hopefully the post-match talking point will be about the tennis and not about whatever foul, tasteless, fashion creation Venus will have sported.

We should only have to suffer it once though, as Lisicki should end the hopes of Williams and she's a backable [1.71] to do just that in their third career meeting.

Williams is down at number 36 in the rankings these days and like her compatriot, Andy Roddick, is feeding off former glories in the twilight of her career.

She's played just the one match since Wimbledon and that won't be enough against the German, who is in great form, having just won in Dallas. She is very much a player on the up after enduring a nightmare time with injuries.

On the men's side, the safest bet looks to be that Marcos Baghdatis and John Isner will go over 40.5 games at around [1.8].

This pair will be sick of the sight of each other after this, having met twice in this swing already, with Isner winning both. But the Bagman raises his game at Slams and this one could be great late night entertainment.

But the best value of the day looks to be Julien Benneteau at around [2.92] to beat Nico Almagro in the first match of the day on the new Court 17.

If Benny isn't exhausted from his marathon effort in Winston-Salem last week - and he's had a few days off since then - I don't see any reason why he can't win this.

Almagro hasn't been impressive on anything but the red dirt this year and won't be that confident after being thrashed 6-2, 6-2 by Tomas Berdych in Cincy.

Benny has been in prime form since coming back from a long term wrist injury and has won 11 of his last 13 matches - losing only to Rafa Nadal and Isner.

This could go long too and over 38.5 games at [1.86] is worth an interest as well.

Recommended bets:

Back Lisicki to beat Williams @ [1.71]
Back over 40.5 games in Isner v Baghdatis @ [1.75]
Back Benneteau to beat Almagro at [3.05]
Back over 38.5 games in Almagro v Benneteau @ [1.86]

Ben Caudell explains why he expects an in-form Brazilian to upset an ailing American at Flushing Meadow today. Meanwhile, there's a lay of the day in the women's draw......

"And I'm on Kavcic tonight, you know my stats don't lie and I'm starting to feel it's right...to oppose Ivan Ljubicic", Ben Caudell chants from underneath his pile of stats books. Here are today's two bets....

Sean's buzzing after a successful start to a fortnight at Flushing Meadows. Can he land another pair of value bets on day two?...

Betfair website

Nick Shiambouros' Patented 80/20 Bet: Folkestone, 16:50

80/20 / Nick Shiambouros / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Nick goes in search of the promised land of 80/20 glory once more with the 16:50 at Folkestone in his radar. But who has he gone for?

Today's 80/20 is Protaras in the 16.50 at Folkestone.

This colt finished third to Midnight Oil in a handicap at HQ earlier this month. He met a fair amount of interference a furlong from home but finished strongly and was gaining on the winner close to home. I think he will appreciate the return to maiden company and should run well at a fair price. At present he is trading at [6.0] on the exchange.

Southwell is the venue for today's 80/20 wager but who has Nick entrusted with his hard-earned cash?...

Can Nick find some more 80/20 glory today in the 16:10 at Ripon?...

Will a drop in trip suit today's selection?...

Betfair website

US Open Stat Attack: Boy from Brazil can upset home fans

US Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will the sun set on Ginepri's challenge?

"Souza is ranked at an all-time high of 90 in the world, 253 places higher than his opponent."

Ben Caudell explains why he expects an in-form Brazilian to upset an ailing American at Flushing Meadow today. Meanwhile, there's a lay of the day in the women's draw...

Five Reasons to Back

Joao Souza (BRA) to defeat Robby Ginepri (USA) @ [2.68]

• The 23-year-old Brazilian has hit a purple patch of form, winning nine of his last 11 matches, including making it through three rounds of qualifying to leap into the US Open first round proper for the first time in his fledging career.

• Souza is ranked at an all-time high of 90 in the world, 253 places higher than his opponent. Almost a year ago, Ginepri underwent left arm surgery after a biking accident. The American has been back in action since June and his results have been mixed; however, he has been unable to defeat a player ranked in the top 100.

• The hard courts at Flushing Meadows are reasonably slow and this can only favour the Brazilian who will be fitter and more accustomed to playing best of five sets. Ginepri is unlikely to be in peak physical condition and I believe he'll struggle to win three sets, especially as he has been away for so long. His last Grand Slam win came back in May 2009 at the French Open.

• Souza has a superior surface rating and match statistics, winning 63% within the last 12 months compared with 46% for Ginepri.

• Souza reached the semi-final of Kitzbuhel at the end of July, eventually losing to Robin Haase in three sets, after going on a six match winning streak. Ginepri has lost to players such as James Ward, ranked 174, and Ryyne Williams ranked 608.

2-0 lay of the day - lay Shuai Peng 2-0 v Tsvetana Pironkova @ [1.81]

• Peng leads the head-to-head 1-0 but Pironkova took the first set in Hobart 2011
• Pironkova has a good record at Grand Slams (7-3), reaching the 2011 Wimbledon quarter-final before losing to the eventual champion Petra Kvitova in three sets
• Peng has withdrawn from her last two hard-court tournaments, Cincinnati and Toronto, due to an unknown injury.

Sean Calvert tells us why Sabine Lisicki should be far too strong for her multiple Grand Slam winner opponent tonight and what other good bets lie in wait for us on day three of the US Open....

"And I'm on Kavcic tonight, you know my stats don't lie and I'm starting to feel it's right...to oppose Ivan Ljubicic", Ben Caudell chants from underneath his pile of stats books. Here are today's two bets....

Sean's buzzing after a successful start to a fortnight at Flushing Meadows. Can he land another pair of value bets on day two?...

Betfair website

Tottenham Transfer News: Modric staying, Crouch off, Cahill joining

Premier League / Richard / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Harry Redknapp is convinced Luka Modric will stay at Spurs

"Redknapp was sure his side weren’t going to sign anyone on transfer deadline day last summer and they ended up bagging Real Madrid midfielder Rafael van der Vaart for £8million."

Harry 'don't call me a wheeler dealer' Redknapp looks set for a massive day of wheeling and dealing with several players linked to moves in and out of White Hart Lane

It's just as well Tottenham Hotspur's chairman Daniel Levy has a batter grasp on numbers than manager Harry Redknapp who this morning said he was a "million per cent sure" that Luka Modric would be staying at White Hart Lane.

Speaking to Sky Sports News, the Spurs boss said: "Obviously there's been all the talk about Luka but the chairman has held firm and he's not for sale.

"So he's not going, which is great. That won't happen, no chance. One million per cent - that will not happen."

However, Redknapp was sure his side weren't going to sign anyone on transfer deadline day last summer and they ended up bagging Real Madrid midfielder Rafael van der Vaart for £8million.

If you reckon Harry is telling porkies, then Modric can still be backed to leave Spurs at [4.1].

One player who does look set to leave though is Peter Crouch who is allegedly now being pursued by Queens Park Rangers and Sunderland.

The Black Cats remain favourites for his signature though as the £12million valuation is thought to be putting Neil Warnock and his board off the player.

Crouch would certainly do a job for Sunderland who have been starved of a goalscorer since Darren Bent's move to Aston Villa in January.

If Steve Bruce's side - who have scored just one goal in three Premier League games this term - can start finding the net, a bet on them to finish in the top ten at [2.1] looks well worth a punt.

Meanwhile, Redknapp is also keen to bring in Bolton defender Gary Cahill after Arsenal withdrew their interest in the centre-half yesterday.

Redknapp, rather coyly, said: "I've always been a big admirer of Gary Cahill so we've got to wait and see really," he said.

"We've got some bits and pieces to do ourselves. So we'll see how the day pans out."

There's no doubting Spurs need to add some more quality to their squad if they are to have any chance of getting back into the top four. They are currently [6.0] to do just that.

Everything looks set for another interesting day in North London...

Tied to a chair and armed with just a TV and a laptop, Mike Norman (and later Jaymes Monte) is here to bring you all the deals as they happen on Transfer Deadline Day....

Manchester City are going against the grain and getting someone on the cheap, while Arsenal are going mad and spending some money...

After the Manchester Massacre at the weekend, Wayne Rooney and Edin Dzeko have become joint favourites to finish top Premier League goalscorer...

Betfair website

Transfer Deadline Day: All the moves as they happen

Premier League / Mike Norman / 31 August 2011 / 1 Comments

"Tottenham boss Harry Redknapp says that Luka Modric is a million per cent certain to remain a Spurs player, though Peter Crouch can leave with Sunderland and Stoke leading the chase to land the £10m-rated striker."

Tied to a chair and armed with just a TV and a laptop, Mike Norman (and later Jaymes Monte) is here to bring you all the deals as they happen on Transfer Deadline Day.

12:41

Joe Cole has signed for French side Lille on a season-long loan, scuppering Aston Villa's last ditch attempts to take him to Villa Park.

QPR have agreed a fee with Sunderland to take defender Anton Ferdinand to Loftus Road.

12:33 Done Deal

It's official, Gary Neville is staying at Sky Sports, and he is not moving to some Lithuanian non-league football channel as the whole country had hoped.

Stoke have agreed a fee with Birmingham to bring striker Cameron Jerome to the Britannia Stadium, whilst it is also being reported that Stoke is the preferred club of Peter Crouch. Still no more on that 'exciting' news coming out of Old Trafford however (re: 11:35). Maybe it was Darren Fletcher opening his wallet!

12:15

We are still waiting for official confirmation but it definitely looks like both Arsenal and Liverpool have grabbed themselves a centre back each - Per Mertesacker moving to the Gunners and Sebastian Coates moving to Anfield.

Liverpool can be backed at [1.63] and Arsenal at [2.58] in the Top 4 Finish market.

Meanwhile, ala Owen Hargreaves, I've just released a video of myself proving my fitness in the hope I might get a move to a new club soon - take a look.

11:55

I agree with The Other Stevie G's comment below, especially as it looks like Liverpool have agreed to let David N'Gog go to Bolton. That just leaves Suarez, Carroll and Kuyt at the club who can play in attack. Peter Crouch is available you know. Would you have him back? Big man, giant man in attack could be the new big man, small man combo!

11:45

Here's a tip for all you Football Manager fans. Don't go out and buy FM2012 later this year, just load up your FM2011 Editor and replicate all the real life transfers that way. I'm still using FM1979, though I refuse to retire Trevor Brooking. What a wonderful player he was/is... he's 78 now but he still gets 40 goals a season playing in front of Paul Gascoigne and Lionel Messi!

11:35 - Major news

We don't know what it is, but there are reports that there's some exciting news coming out of Old Trafford for Manchester United fans. For the moment though, we'll just have to sit tight and wait for it. Wesley Sneijder anyone? Bit of an anti-climax that wasn't it?

Aston Villa are in talks with Liverpool's Joe Cole. I'm a big fan of Cole, and at his age he definitely needs to be playing regular football. Will be a good deal all round that one.

11:23

The most surprising signing today could be that of Owen Hargreaves by Man City. The England international has been plagued with injuries since he joined Man Utd four years ago, so much so that Sir Alex Ferguson released him at the end of his contract a few months back.

But in an amazing twist Hargreaves, barring any last minute hitches (like a broken leg, cruciate ligament damages etc) is expected to complete a move to City in the next few hours and join a squad that already has excellent players that can play in his position.

What do you think City fans? Will Hargreaves complete your jigsaw?

As well as all the arrivals at Eastlands (can I still call it that?) in the summer there are a handful of players expected to leave the club today. Shaun Wright-Phillips should complete a permanent transfer to QPR, whilst Craig Bellamy is also in talks with the London club. And Stewart Downing has tweeted that James Milner has left the England camp, though my guess is the City midfielder has gone for an early bath, and not to another club.

Tottenham boss Harry Redknapp says that Luka Modric is a million per cent certain to remain a Spurs player, though Peter Crouch can leave with Sunderland and Stoke leading the chase to land the £10m-rated striker.

11:10

Right, let's start with some odds in the Premier League.

Manchester United are the favourites to retain the title at [2.42], just ahead of neighbours City at [3.15] - both have made magnificent starts to the new season. Chelsea are a rather tasty looking [5.9], how busy will new boss Andre Villas-Boas be today?

In the relegation market QPR can be backed at [2.76] but I have a feeling Neil Warnock and his staff will be bringing in some big names throughout the day and that price may well drift.

11:00

Morning everyone. It's one of the most exciting days in the football calendar today with clubs up and down the country desperately trying to fine-tune their squads before the transfer window slams shut. There will be many twists and turns as the day progresses, and there could even be some huge deals.

All eyes will be on the likes of moneybags Manchester City, Premier League new boys QPR, transfer deadline-crazy Harry Redknapp at Tottenham, and the desperately in need of improving Arsenal.

The betting.betfair team will be here all day to let you know who moves where and who stays put, but it's not all just about the football clubs. You the fans are just as important so please let us know who you would like your club to sign by leaving a comment below. Which players are on your wish list and who are you hoping will be staying put?

It's going to be a very exciting day, and that's about the only thing I can guarantee you at this stage.

Harry 'don't call me a wheeler dealer' Redknapp looks set for a massive day of wheeling and dealing with several players linked to moves in and out of White Hart Lane...

Manchester City are going against the grain and getting someone on the cheap, while Arsenal are going mad and spending some money...

After the Manchester Massacre at the weekend, Wayne Rooney and Edin Dzeko have become joint favourites to finish top Premier League goalscorer...

Betfair website

Failla Thrills Crowd, Wins WPT Legends of Poker

Poker News / Matthew Pitt / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

The final table of the World Poker Tour Legends of Poker has been completed and it is Will "The Thrill" Failla who is the man who managed to win every single chip in play to be crowned as Champion. Failla started the day as the chipleader and although he let his chip advantage slip on a couple of occasions, he always looked like he would be there or thereabouts and at one point Ken Aldridge said Failla's victory was destined to happen.

It took an hour for the first player to be eliminated from the six-handed final table at the Bicycle Casino, Bell Gardens, California and that dubious honour went to Owais Ahmed. The man who won his first World Series of Poker bracelet a couple of months ago started as the shortest stack and from the off was playing very aggressively in an attempt to chip up. However, his efforts backfired as he moved all in from the small blind with Js7s for 1,760,000 (blinds 60,000/120,000/20,000a) and Failla made the call in the big blind with Ac5h. The board ran out As-Kh-7h-Ad-Kc, gifting Failla an unnecessary full house and sending Ahmed to the cashier's cage to pick up $77,100.

Another two hours passed before the five players were reduced to the final four and it was Adam Aronson who was busted out in spectacular fashion. With blinds now 100,000/200,000/25,000a Aronson open-shoved from the button for 1,675,000 chips and was snapped off by Jeff Vertes in the big blind. Aronson flipped over 6c6s and was in a whole world of pain against the AdAh of Vertes but that all changed as the flop came down 8h-6h-3s. The turn was the 7h and brought a few "oohs and aahs" from the crowd as Vertes held the Ah meaning he could win by hitting an ace or heart on the river and it was the latter, the 9h, that made an appearance on the fifth community card sending a disappointed Aronson home for an early bath.

Joshua Pollock's elimination 30 minutes later was a little less exciting in terms of action but it did earn him $128,500. Pollock raised to 425,000 from the button and Aldridge called from the big blind. The dealer got busy putting out the Ad-Kc-4d flop. It was greeted with a check from Aldridge, a 500,000 continuation bet from Pollock and a check-raise to 1,200,000 from Aldridge. Pollock sat for almost a minute before moving all in, Aldridge made the call and showed As7h, which needed to avoid a diamond as Pollock held Jd7d. And avoid diamonds he did as the turn and river were the 7c and Th respectively to send the popular Pollock to the sidelines.

They played three-handed for almost three and a half hours before something finally gave and Vertes was sent packing. With blinds now really starting to bite at 200,000/400,000/50,000a the players were prepared to splash around in pots so it was only a matter of time before two big hands collided. Failla opened to 900,000 from the button and then shoved over the top of Vertes' three-bet of 1,750,000 from the big blind. Vertes made the call and his AhQd was nicely dominating the AdJc of Failla. This was not the case for long as the flop came down Ac-Jd-Tc but the hand was far from over as Vertes still had outs. The 9h was not really one of them and unfortunately for him neither was the As on the river and it sent him home, albeit with $186,400 in prize money.

Going into heads up Failla held a 13,075,000 to 10,650,000 chip lead over Aldridge but that would not last for very long. On just the fourth hand of play Failla min-raised to 800,000 and was called. A flop reading Ac-As-6s was met with a check from Aldridge, a bet of 1,000,000 from Failla and a quick check-raise to 2,500,000 from Aldridge. Failla paused before making the call. The turn was the 4d and again Aldridge checked, again Failla bet this time 1,500,000 but instantly folded as Aldridge made another check-raise, this one all in.

That completely turned the tie around and Aldridge was armed with 14,550,000 chips but in heads up No Limit Hold'em things can change instantly and change they did. Eight hands later and Failla doubled up and crippled Aldridge after some good fortune. Aldridge opened to 900,000 and Failla called, and the latter check-called Aldridge's 500,000 bet on a Jc-5d-2h flop. The 9h on the turn saw Failla check, Aldridge bet 2,000,000 and after a minute of deliberating, a call from Failla. The river was the 7h and now Failla came out betting to the tune of 4,000,000. Aldridge quickly moved all in but was not happy when Failla snap-called and turned over 8h6h for an unlikely flush, much stronger than the AdAs of Aldridge. When the players had stacked their chips Aldridge said "It looks like destiny," referring to a now very likely Failla win.

That win was confirmed just three hands later. Failla now with over 20,000,000 chips moved all in and Aldridge thought briefly before calling. Failla turned over Jh6c which was dominating the 6s4h of his opponent. The dealer put out the five community cards, which read Kc-Kh-7h-Qd-9s meaning Failla's jack-kicker came into play which sent "Teach" Aldridge to the rail as runner-up.

The World Poker Tour next stops off at the Aviation Club in Paris for the Grand Prix de Paris between September 4-12, where yours truly will be reporting live on the World Poker Tour website. Until then, a massive congratulations to Will Failla on his first World Poker Tour title!

Final table payouts

1st: Will Failla: $758,085
2nd: Ken Aldridge: $365,800
3rd: Jeff Vertes: $186,400
4th: Joshua Pollock: $128,500
5th: Adam Aronson: $102,800
6th: Owais Ahmed: $77,100

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The official six-handed final table of the World Poker Tour Legends of Poker has been reached and it is Will "The Thrilla" Failla who is the man they have to catch when play resumes at 1600 local time....

Day 3 of the European Poker Tour's Barcelona main event will start with 141 players still gunning for part of the €4,000,000-plus prize pool and €850,000 first prize. The top 120 spots pay, meaning the cash bubble should be bursting...

Recent days have seen several stories emerge concerning possible legislation to license and regulate online poker in the United States, with activity picking up on both the federal and state levels. On the federal side, much of the talk remains...

Betfair website

Timeform US Tips: Wednesday August 31

US 1-2-3 / Timeform / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Three bets for Tuesday from Timeform's North American team...

Woodbine race 1 (23:45 BST) win back #6 OLD BLUE EYES at [2.2] or longer

Woodbine race 3 (00:47 BST) win back #4 BLING BLING QUEEN at [2.0] or longer

Charles Town race 5 (02:00 BST) win back #12 SUPER BRIAN at [5.5] or longer

Running totals - 441 recommendations, 216 successful, 49.0% strike-rate, Profit/loss +30.04, Profitability on stake +6.8%

Three bets for Tuesday's racing in the US......

Two plays and a lay for Monday......

Three bets for Sunday from Sunday's US team......

Betfair website

Hereford Placepot: Wednesday August 31

Daily Placepots / Keith Melrose / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

We're off to Hereford today - hopefully it's warmer than Halifax

"Manger Hanagment created a good impression when dotting up in an admittedly weak Perth handicap last time, while his size suggests further improvement could well be forthcoming on his second chase start."

With autumn just around the corner, it's high time we started introducing a bit of jumps racing into your diet, so the Placepot on this quiet Wednesday comes from Hereford...

14.10 - A pretty stock-standard summer novice, but it's potentially interesting for Placepot purposes with only two places now up for grabs. Neither Priors Gold nor Spirit Is Needed is sound of temperament, but due to a paucity of opposition we have to take at least one and the nod is given to the former, who hasn't been out of the three over hurdles since his debut. In hope of either one or both of the aforementioned pair having an off day, I'm giving our second spot to Forever My Friend, who wouldn't be far behind the market leaders on his bumper form and can be expected to have learned from his hurdling debut over course and distance.

14.40 - The openness of the market in this low-grade handicap says plenty, so we'll need a couple to help us through. First up is Timocracy, who in truth has never been quite as reliable over hurdles as he is on the Flat, but the feeling is it would take little more than a clear round from him in order to go very close. Among the most unexposed runners in the field, Lombok's suspect attitude may prevent him from winning if it comes down to a battle, but we certainly wouldn't be complaining with second place.

15.10 - Two non-runners have reduced this field to four, so we switch to the tactic of negative Placepotting, whereby we weed out the no-hopers rather than cherry-pick the interesting horses. Call it risky, but I think to avoid our perm spiralling out of control it's worth removing Cityar from the equation, which leaves Green du Ciel, Man In Black and Argaum.

15.40 - Assuming all five stand their ground, this should prove a pretty straightforward leg. Manger Hanagment created a good impression when dotting up in an admittedly weak Perth handicap last time, while his size suggests further improvement could well be forthcoming on his second chase start. He's a banker.

16.10 - As things stand there are four places up for grabs here, so a couple of last-time-out winners should be sufficient to get through. Coolagad Wonder was making just his second start in handicaps when scoring at Fontwell thirteen days ago, so it doesn't take a great leap of imagination to suggest there may be more to come. On the same day, Diamanpeg came back to form to nab his second win of the summer at Stratford; he's not the most consistent, though the fact that there looks to be precious little competition for the lead makes him more interesting than most.

16.40 - If like me you're looking to take on Intac in the final leg, I'm afraid there isn't much to go on. There's potentially a case to be made for the well-handicapped Tempting Paradise, but all told this looks as good an opportunity to follow up as Intac will get, especially with no other established front runners in attendance.

Selections: 24 lines

14.10 - 1, 6
14.40 - 1, 10
15.10 - 3, 4, 6
15.40 - 2
16.10 - 3, 10
16.40 - 1

We're off to Ripon for today's Placepot.......

Epsom hosts an interesting Bank Holiday card this afternoon......

It's a collaborative effort between Timeform's Sunday team for today's placepot......

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Afternoon Market Movers: Wednesday August 31

Market Movers / Editor / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

This afternoon's market movers from Bath, Folkestone and Hereford.

Bath

14:30
Pennfield Pirate 8.15 into 6.0
Bold Cross 5.75 out to 8.2

15:00
Rose Aurora 6.65 into 4.5

15:30
Blackburn 11.0 into 8.0

16:00
Levantera 18.0 into 11.0

16:30
Blue Deer 5.8 into 4.2
Dreams Of Glory 7.0 into 5.5

17:00
Johnstown Lad 17.0 into 12.5

17:30
Flaxen Lake 5.75 into 4.75

Folkestone

14:20
National Hope 9.1 into 5.85
Edgeware Road 2.53 out to 2.85

14:50
Courtland King 2.5 out to 2.75

15:20
Passing Stranger 1.36 into 1.25

15:50
Miss Chamanda 5.15 into 4.35

16:50
Protaras 6.0 into 4.5

Hereford

14:10
Priors Gold 1.88 out to 2.38
Spirit Is Needed 5.5 into 3.6

14:40
Lombok 8.55 into 7.0
Shadows Gold 12.0 out to 16.0

15:10
Argaum 2.9 out to 3.5

15:40
Manger Hanagement 2.58 into 2.2
Vertige Dore 3.3 out to 4.1

16:10
Mix N Match 12.0 into 8.0

16:40
Intac 1.82 out to 2.18

17:10
The Playful Priest 3.0 into 1.96

This evening's market movers from Southwell and Wolverhampton......

This afternoon's market movers from Epsom, Goodwood and Ripon....

All the early price movements on Betfair's racing markets....

Betfair website

Against All Odds: Wednesday August 31

Against All Odds / Paul Robinson / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

The rules are simple. Every week day Paul Robinson will be looking to take on an odds-on shot by laying them in the match odds market.

Thanks to Port Vale holding Tranmere to a 1-1 draw last night, we're in profit for the week to a level stake and while that's pleasing, we're a greedy lot here in the Against All Odds team and want more of the green stuff in our Betfair accounts.

Our search for more winnings takes us to Ireland tonight for an FAI Cup Fourth Round Replay between Monaghan United and Sligo Rovers. The first match ended in a feisty goalless draw at Sligo's Showgrounds in a game that saw both sides reduced to 10 men. Rovers failed to get the job done on their own patch, yet are quite long odds-on tonight, which is far too short for my liking.

Monaghan sit third in the Airtricity First Division and are pushing for promotion to the elite. They have lost just once in their last six matches and are really hitting form at the right time of the season. They have scored a respectable nine goals in their last half dozen and conceded only four, including three clean sheets.

Sligo are riding high in the Airtricity Premier Division and while that may be the league above Monaghan, the difference isn't all that great, as evidenced by their failure to beat them at home last week. Their recent form isn't that hot either; just one win in six in all competitions, shipping eight goals in the process.

While I don't forsee a comfortable home victory for Monaghan this evening, I just feel that on recent form, Sligo are far too short and in what promises to be a white hot atmosphere in Gortakeegan, I'm making Sligo my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet

Lay Sligo against Monaghan @ [1.73]

The rules are simple. Every week day Paul Robinson will be looking to take on an odds-on shot by laying them in the match odds market....

The rules are simple. Every week day Paul Robinson will be looking to take on an odds-on shot by laying them in the match odds market....

The rules are simple. Every week day Paul Robinson will be looking to take on an odds-on shot by laying them in the match odds market....

Betfair website

Caulfield Cup Betting: Europe set to send strong raiding party

Timeform Features / Timeform / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Last year's Melbourne Cup winner Americain has been handed top-weight for the Caulfield Cup

"Of the home contingent, last year's winner Descarado once again lines up and is allotted a weight of 8-12, 8 lb higher than his mark last year."

The Caulfield Cup is set to take place on October 15 and Europe are sending a very strong team this year to try and capture the $2,500,000 race...

Last year's Melbourne Cup winner Americain was allotted top-weight of 9-02 for the Caulfield Cup on Tuesday afternoon in a race that may serve as a prep-run for the Alain de Royre Dupre trained six-year-old before he looks to defend his Flemington crown on November 1.

Americain produced a career-best to land the 2010 running of the Melbourne Cup, catching So You Think with a hundred and fifty yards to go, before drawing clear to score by two and a quarter lengths, earning himself a Timeform rating of 126.

Although he has been below his very best this season, finishing down the field in both the Prix Kergorlay and the Prix de Bababeville, he Melbourne Cup has always been his seasonal objective, a race for which he is currently available at [22]. Americain is currently uncertain to line-up in the Caulfield Cup, with the Cox Plate also being touted by connections as a possible prep-race for the November showpiece.

The British challenge for the Caulfield Cup is headed by Brian Meehan's Breeders' Cup winner Dangerous Midge (Timeform rated 125), set to carry 9-01. He has not been seen since disappointing in the Dubai Sheema Classic, where he finished last of 14 behind Rewilding back in March, but he has proven in the past he can go well when fresh and connections could decide to send him straight to Caulfield.

Michael Bell's Tactician (115) is another British entrant and stands to race off a weight of 8-05. The four-year-old has shown a decent amount of progression in his relatively short career and was at his very best last time out, when he produced a bold front-running display to finish second in the Ebor at York, collared only late on by another who could join him in Australia, Brian Ellison's Moyenne Corniche who could go for the Melbourne Cup.

Group 3 Glorious Stakes winner Drunken Sailor (121) also holds an entry at this stage and is currently priced at [55.0] on Betfair. The Luca Cumani trained six-year-old missed the cut for the Melbourne Cup last year but has looked better this season, winning the listed Aston Park Stakes by seven lengths before his Goodwood success.

The strong pace that the Caulfield Cup is often run at will suit Drunken Sailor, who is seen at his very best when held-up given such circumstances and he is notably entered and available to back at [55.0] for the Melbourne Cup, too.

Of the home contingent, last year's winner Descarado once again lines up and is allotted a weight of 8-12, 8 lb higher than his mark last year. He is currently available to be backed at [50.0], and is bidding to become the first horse to win back-to-back Caulfield Cups since Rising Fast did so in 1955.

Amongst the market principals are Lights of Heaven and Scarlett Lady, who are priced [9.2] and [11.5] respectively and arrive at Caulfield with every chance, having won over £500,000 between them already this season.

James Fanshawe holds a strong hand in Saturday's Haydock Sprint Cup, with Deacon Blues the current favourite and Society Rock also towards the head of the betting, but Timeform reckon the prize could be going back to another Newmarket yard as the race to be crowned Europe's Champion sprinter draws closer to a conclusion......

The news that Andre Fabre's Derby winner Pour Moi has been forced into retirement through injury this week means the market for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in October has been thrown wide open. Timeform look at the main contenders for Europe's premier middle-distance contest......

There was some outstanding racing in the US, despite the intervention of Hurricane Irene. Simon Rowlands reveals the ratings to come out of it as well as out of some of the Group races in Europe....

Betfair website

The Punter's picks for the Omega European Masters and the Deutsche Championship

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jason Day – Runner-up last year, can he go one better?

“I tried very hard to stop myself from backing Jason Day but failed. Last year’s runner-up impresses almost every week and it’s highly possible that he’ll be bobbing around the top of the leaderboard come Monday night.”

Steve looks to the Spanish contingency for success in the Alps. Whilst in the States, is it going to be Jason's Day on Monday?

The picturesque Crans-sur-Sierre course hosts the Omega European Masters for the 65th time this year and the event, now co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour, has attracted one of the best non-major line-ups of the season.

A strong case can be made for any of the first three in the market. Rory McIlroy should have won his maiden event here in 2008, and he finished 7th a year later. Lee Westwood won here way back in 1999 and he's been in tremendous form of late (until he gets to the green and putts!) and Matteo Manassero will win this event at some stage. His third placed finish last year could very easily have been better and his game clearly fits the venue perfectly. But are any of them a value price?

We've not seen Rors since his crazy wrist-wrecking tree root trick at the PGA Championship. Westwood's putting is atrocious, and his form here hasn't been as spectacular as the views since his win anyway, and Manny is not in great form, though he was the closest to inclusion.

I was tempted by Francesco Molinari, who like Manny has the game for Crans, and had he been a fraction bigger I'd have taken a chance on the out-of-form Italian. And Alex Noren and Seung-Yul Noh were both also on the shortlist but in the end I've left them all out.

My first pick is last year's winner, Miguel Angel Jimenez, at what could be a huge price. This is the popular veteran's 23rd consecutive appearance and he has ten top-ten finishes here. His last three year's figures read 3-4-1. He hasn't been himself since breaking his putter in Bahrain but with a course record so strong, he simply had to be backed. Besides, I envisage a bit of Spanish inspiration this year...

The late Seve Ballesteros will be on the minds of many this week and there's a strong Spanish contingency. Crans was the scene of one his most wondrous shots and a marble plaque on the 18th commemorates it. He made numerous course changes back in the 1990's and if there's an event the Spanish will want to bag this season, it's this one, so I've backed a number of them.

There are few players in the field (if any) in better form than South African George Coetzee and after coming up close with him last week in Scotland, I've again supported him here. There's every chance he could bounce after last week's near miss but if he doesn't, with its drivable par fours and reachable par fives, George could just get on a roll.

I've detailed the case for Thorbjorn Olesen and Brett Rumford in this week's Find Me a 100 Winner piece and I've also backed the 2001 champ, Argentine Ricardo Gonzalez at a monster price.

Selections:

Miguel Angel Jimenez @ [40.0]
George Coetzee @ [50.0]
Thorbjorn Olesen @ [120.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [170.0]
Brett Rumford @ [180.0]
Pablo Martin @ [260.0]
Alejandro Canizares @ [300.0]
Ricardo Gonzalez @ [310.0]

The ninth staging of the Deutsche Bank Championship, which doesn't start until Friday, is the second FedEx Cup playoff event. It's Labor Day on Monday in the States and this event traditionally finishes up on Monday.

Charley Hoffman was a shock winner twelve months ago but most years a really class-act picks up the prize. Five of the eight winners to date have been ranked in the top three in the world rankings at the time of their victory and in contrast to the European Masters, I don't think trawling through the players at big odds will pay dividends and all four of my picks are relatively short.

Given he's only chalked up one win so far, I tried very hard to stop myself from backing Jason Day but failed. Last year's runner-up impresses almost every week and it's highly possible that he'll be bobbing around the top of the leaderboard come Monday night.

Olin Browne and Steve Stricker have both won here so you don't necessarily need to bomb it off the tee but it certainly helps. Where it lands doesn't appear to matter too much though- Driving Accuracy isn't an important stat. The stats that do count at TPC Boston are Par 5 performance, Greens In Regulation and Birdie Average.

Five of the eight winners have ranked first for Par 5 Performance and two have ranked second. Seven of the eight winners have ranked in the top-10 for GIR and making lots of birdies is essential - Hoffman made 28 last year!

Webb Simpson looks the perfect fit. He currently ranks second for Par 5 Performance, 14th for GIR and third for Birdie Average. His first round 71 at The Barclays was just too poor to see him go back-to-back after his maiden win at the Wyndham Championship a fortnight ago but he finished like a train with rounds of 66 and 63. He's plainly in good heart, has the game for the venue and at [40.0], he was a no-brainer pick.

Another of last week's selections, Camilo Villegas, gets another chance. He's going in the right direction all of a sudden with two top-10's in-a-row and he was third here in 2008. And finally, Bubba Watson ranks in the top-12 for all three key stats and he could just bounce back to form at a big price.

Selections:

Jason Day @ [26.0]
Webb Simpson @ [40.0]
Camilo Villegas @ [65.0]
Bubba Watson @ [70.0]

It's been a good week for Steve, as Dustin Johnson wins a sprint in New Jersey and Thomas Bjorn eventually secures victory in a Scottish marathon......

With a win in the bag in the States already, our man takes a detailed look at the state of play at Gleneagles and it's a case of Bjorn again for Steve......

Rock steady Robert gets the nod in Scotland and Rose is taken to bloom in New Jersey. Read the Punter's preview of this week's golf action here......

Betfair website

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Wednesday August 31

The Joker's bet of the day / The Joker / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.90] in Atletico PR v Atletico MG

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way...

It's transfer deadline day and there could be a panic buy from Betfair.

And it could be a replacement for the Joker. The Riddler's been mentioned and someone (something?) called the Penguin too.

This has all come about because of a slight rick yesterday column. Nothing to do with the bet, you understand - it won, of course, and easily too - but the odds the Joker hoped for were a little optimistic.

So, today, this is a bet you can make right now at exactly the price quoted...

Since July, four of Atletico Paranaense's five home games in Brazil's Serie A have passed Over 2.5 Goals. Since the end of June, seven Atletico Mineiro away matches in a row have gone the same way.

After you.

Recommendation: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.90] in Atletico PR v Atletico MG

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

Betfair website

Afternoon Market Movers: Friday August 5

Market Movers / Editor / 05 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

This afternoon market movers from Brighton, Lingfield and Worcester...

Lingfield

14.10
Rien Ne Vas Plus 5.25 out to 9.4

14.40
Count Ceprano 2.82 out to 3.7

15.10
Maher 2.18 out to 2.7

16.40
Love Nest 3.05 out to 4.3

17.10
Doctor Hilary 9.20 in to 6.8

Brighton

15.00
Basel 2.28 out to 2.6
Deerslayer 2.14 out to 2.9

15.30
Titus Gent 10.78 in to 8.4

Worcester

14.20
American Art 2.70 out to 4.3

14.50
Geneva Geyser 2.60 in to 2.20
Peachey Moment 8.0 in to 6.4

15.50
Postmaster 17.50 in to 13

16.50
Rowdy Rampage 4.80 in to 3.75
Grovemere 10.0 in to 8.0

All the betting moves ahead of the evening racing at Chepstow, Folkestone, Sandown and Leopardstown...

This afternoon's market movers from Brighton, Haydock and Yarmouth......

All the betting moves ahead of the evening racing at Kempton, Yarmouth and Sligo...

Betfair website

Timeform US Tips: Friday August 5

US 1-2-3 / Timeform / 05 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Three bets for Friday from Timeform's US team...

Finger Lakes race 2 (18:02 BST) win back #8 GREAT ADDICTION at [3.0] or longer

Woodbine race 3 (20:01 BST) win lay #3 WINN CREEK at [3.75] or shorter

Charles Town race 1 (00:15 BST) win lay #8 ZIPPY'S TIGER at [4.0] or shorter

Get a free form guide for racing in the US & Canada at http://bit.ly/dP3Uvj.

Three bets for Thursday from Timeform's US team......

A good night on Tuesday, with a successful back and a lay (the other tip was a NR), but we're aiming for three out of three this evening......

Two plays and a lay for Tuesday from Timeform's US team......

Betfair website

Epic Poker League Set to Debut

Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 05 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

While your faithful Betfair poker bloggers are traveling the world covering poker tournaments -- Matthew Pitt over at EPT Tallinn in Estonia and yours truly at LAPT Punta del Este in Uruguay -- much of the poker world's attention over the next few days will be upon the highly anticipated debut of the Epic Poker League at the Palms Casino in Las Vegas. Today a "Pro/Am" event kicks off the league's first tournament series, while later will come a couple of other tournaments including the $20,000 buy-in Main Event that begins Tuesday, August 9th.

Calling a preliminary a "Pro/Am" in a way recalls the schedule one frequently finds at professional golf tourneys wherein pros and amateurs get together for an early round -- kind of a mini-tournament before the main event that occasionally features significant prize money.

The Epic Poker League Pro/Am that begins later today is a $1,500 buy-in event that will partially serve as a satellite into the Main Event, with the top nine finishers all earning ME seats. If the prize pool exceeds $180,000, the remaining money will be distributed among the other top finishers.

Expect a number of top pros and familiar faces to show up for today's Pro/Am. In fact, many players who have already qualified for entry into the Main Event according to the league's criteria will likely be playing in the Pro/Am as well in the hopes of landing an ME seat for a cheaper price. Epic Poker League members who have already indicated they'll be playing in the Pro/Am include Tom Dwan, Antonio Esfandiari, Ben Lamb, Mike Matusow, Michael Mizrachi, Mike Sexton, and Gavin Smith.

On Sunday, August 7th there will be a charity event, a $240 buy-in tournament (with $100 rebuys and an add-on) hosted by Brad Garrett of "Everyone Loves Raymond" fame. While the entire prize pool will be going to Operation USA, a relief organization currently helping victims of the tornado that tore through Joplin, Missouri back in May, additional prizes are being donated by the online company Zappos and others, including seats to future Pro/Ams and a $2,500 first prize.

Of course, it's the Main Event that most will be focusing upon come next Tuesday, with many curious to see how many of the 252 players who have qualified to play in the Epic Poker League actually come out to participate in the event. For a discussion of the criteria, see this article from early May from when the original list of qualifiers was announced. At the time 218 players had won enough on the tourney circuit to become league members; since then, 34 more have made it through.

That $20,000 entry fee is certainly a higher-than-usual price tag for tour events. And, of course, the field is guaranteed to be especially tough, which some believe might also further discourage some from participating. However, the league has come up with some significant incentives for players to participate.

Just 2% of the entry fees will be taken out for dealers and staff, and a handsome $400,000 will be added to the prize pool. Also, the highly regarded Matt Savage (interviewed here) is serving as the tournament director for the Epic League Poker events, and the tournament will be employing a structure developed by Savage. Players will start the six-handed no-limit hold'em event with super deep stacks (50,000 chips or 250 big blinds) and play 90-minute levels, so there is sure to be a lot of play.

Another possible incentive for some players will be the fact that if they do well in the tournament they may potentially score some television time in addition to the cash prizes. The league has struck a television deal whereby 20 hours' worth of coverage of Epic Poker League events will air on CBS (a major, non-cable network) and Velocity (a less well-known cable channel).

It's hard to say, really, how much of an incentive for players the television exposure might be, both because of the relative obscurity of Velocity and the uncertain situation for player sponsorships post-Black Friday. However, the virtual shutdown of the online game in the U.S. may also indirectly help the Epic Poker League. With the major sites no longer operating in America -- and thus the entire notion of the "sponsored pro" having been currently thrown into question -- there may well be a place in the poker landscape for a sports-like "professional poker league" that wasn't really there before.

More information about the Epic Poker League -- including details about all of the events' schedules and structures, player profiles, videos, news, and more -- can be found on its recently launched website.

By the way, if you hunt around over there on the Epic site long enough you'll find a number of columnists including your humble scribbler, there with a column called "Community Cards" that focuses on poker in popular culture. (Here is the first entry, on poker and late night television.) My plan for the column is to address both contemporary stories/issues as well as to delve into the history of poker now and then.

It is difficult to predict at present how the Epic Poker League will do or what its reception will be. In any event, it should prove intriguing no matter what happens, and I think once that Main Event plays down to its last few tables interest will certainly pick up within the poker community.

I know it will be grabbing the attention of both Matthew and myself -- once we make it back to our homes from all of our globetrotting, that is!

One hundred and ninety players entered the Olympic Casino inside the luxurious Swissotel in the centre of Tallinn, Estonia and exchanged €4,250 for 30,000 tournament chips. By the end of seven one-hour long levels 60 of them had busted out...

With the World Series of Poker effectively over until November, the eyes of the poker world have turned to Estonia for their fix of first class tournament poker. The European Poker Tour is currently in the Estonian capital city of...

"Always with a pen in my pocket and an eye on the outrageous." That's how poker player, writer, and coach Tommy Angelo refers to himself in his newest offering, A Rubber Band Story and other Poker Tales. The book follows...

Betfair website

Timeform 1-2-3 Tips: Friday August 5

Timeform 1-2-3 / Simon Baker / 05 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Roger Varian: Looks booked for another winner with Long Awaited

"Long Awaited produced a useful effort when beating a next-time winner in a maiden at Ripon on his reappearance and then shaped as if comfortably ahead of his mark when fourth on handicap debut at Chester."

Three bets for Friday from Timeform's Free Form Site, on the back of a successful treble on Thursday...

The three-mile handicap hurdle at Worcester (15:50) isn't a bad race for the time of year, with a good proportion of the field arriving in some sort of form. That includes Red Not Blue who has proved a real credit so far this season, winning twice at Southwell in May/June and posting good in-frame efforts on his last two outings. Most recently, Red Not Blue finished fourth to Westlin' Winds in a well-run handicap hurdle on Summer Plate day at Market Rasen. That form has a very solid look to it and a repeat performance will put him right in the mix in what looks a marginally less competitive race today.

Solid options are decidedly thin on the ground in the ten-furlong handicap at Brighton this afternoon (17:00) with the rather obvious exception of the Alan King-trained Ishikawa. He hasn't run a bad race in three handicap outings this year, winning at Wolverhampton in May and running creditably switched back to turf when third at Lingfield on his most recent start. That Lingfield run didn't really represent any improvement in form terms, but there was encouragement to be had in the way Ishikawa travelled a bit further back than the pair that beat him and there is always the possibility that he was just short of peak fitness after two months off. Today's main market rival Snowy Peak warrants respect as a well-bred filly from a top yard, but she hasn't looked anything special in four starts to date and, at the prices, looks a less attractive betting proposition than Ishikawa.

Long Awaited stands out a mile in the concluding six-furlong handicap at Newmarket (20:30) as an unexposed three-year-old taking on a bunch of rivals who, by and large, hold few secrets from the handicapper. Long Awaited produced a useful effort when beating a next-time winner in a maiden at Ripon on his reappearance and then shaped as if comfortably ahead of his mark when fourth on handicap debut at Chester last month. As can sometimes happen at Chester, the pace-setters went off a shade too quickly, setting it up for those held up, and ultimately it is to Long Awaited's credit that he emerged as the best of those that disputed the running. Two of Long Awaited's prominently ridden rivals from Chester have won since, and tonight looks a good opportunity for him to join their company.

Recommendations

Back Red Not Blue @ [7.0] Worcester 15:50
Back Ishikawa @ [4.4] Brighton 17:00
Back Long Awaited @ [2.92] Newmarket 20:30
..................
Have you ever tried Timeform Race Passes? Now there's an even better reason to get the ultimate form guide. Throughout August, you can get a two-day pass for the price of one. Click HERE to find out more.

Timeform's Joe Szekeres brings you his three selections for today, with his best bet due to take centre stage at Haydock this afternoon......

Three selections for Wednesday's racing from the Timeform Free Form Website....

Three more selections from the Timeform Free Form website, with the bet of the day coming from Southwell......

Betfair website