Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Two to follow at Cheltenham

Timeform Radio Tip / Rory Delargy / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Punchestowns is a decent bet at odds against today

"Punchestowns is not a horse I’d want to be with in the hurly-burly of the Gold Cup until he proves his mettle, but there’s every chance that today’s motley field won’t get him off the bridle."

Cheltenham resident and jumps guru Rory Delargy has a pair of punts for you at Prestbury Park today

Venetia Williams' horses have shown signs that they are finally ready to fire after a stop-start season, as evidenced by the 66/1 success of Nobunaga at Huntingdon earlier this week, and her Art Professor looks the bet of the day in Cheltenham's 16:10.

The son of In The Wings won his only start of the 2008/9 season at Ascot, beating a competitive field off a BHA mark of 127. He was absent for two years after that until reappearing at Cheltenham in December. He showed there that he retained plenty of ability despite being out of the frame and gave the impression again at Taunton that he needed the spin to sharpen him up. The handicapper has been kind in dropping him to a mark of 122, and he can be expected to be cherry ripe now. Cunning Clarets and Tanks For That look dangers but the hill is a concern for the former, and the latter will be better back over fences, with the Grand Annual at the Festival looking his long-term aim.

Earlier on the card, Punchestowns looks very hard to oppose in the Argento Chase at 14:30. He's opposed by horses who are either temperamentally suspect (The Tother One, Tidal Bay) or with serious doubts about current ability (Neptune Collonges, Madison du Berlais). His defeat by Pride of Dulcote looked disappointing at the time, but the subsequent victory of Tatenen, beaten fully 40 lengths there, suggest that form is a lot better than initially thought. He's not a horse I'd want to be with in the hurly-burly of the Gold Cup until he proves his mettle, but there's every chance that today's motley field won't get him off the bridle, and he looks a decent bet at odds against.

Recommendations:
Back Art Professor in the 16:10 Cheltenham @ [16.5] (NAP)
Back Punchestowns in the 14:30 Cheltenham @ [2.14] (NB)

Timeform's Simon Baker looks through the main contenders for what is shaping up to be the best Champion Hurdle in many seasons......

The XY Factor is at Lingfield on Saturday................

Today's FTM market movers all come from the jumps action at Cheltenham....

Betfair website

The Punter's Live Golf Blog: The Volvo Golf Champions and the Farmers Insurance Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 29 January 2011 / 1 Comments

Paul Casey – In with a great chance in Bahrain

“Casey must be keen to win on the Colin Montgomerie designed course - it wouldn’t be much compensation for missing the Ryder Cup but it would be slightly ironic should he win here, given the Scot overlooked him for a place in the European team last year.”

Woods and co are still in the mix at the Farmers but Steve's just about given up in Bahrain...

14.45 - January 28, 2012

Yesterday looked destined to be an utterly disastrous day until it was mercifully saved somewhat by strong finishes by three of my pre-event picks at the Farmers....

Outsider Robert Garrigus had already blown his chance on day one but Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Ben Crane had all started the event well enough on Thursday. When Woods birdied four holes in a row from the 3rd yesterday he shortened right up to [2.76], and that didn't look short to me. I was gaining confidence and starting to really enjoy it but then, almost inexplicably, and not for the first time in recent history, Tigers game started to unravel in no uncertain terms. He bogeyed three holes on the back nine and needed a number of lengthy par saves to just hang on in. Thankfully he birdied two of the last three and now sits on -6, which is still five off Bill Haas' lead.

Phil Mickelson struggled to find fairways all day on the easier North Course and as a result didn't get close enough often enough with his second shots to construct a low score. Birdies on his last two holes glossed over a disappointing round and I'm hoping that that's his bad one out of the way. And alongside Lefty on -8 is Crane, who also birdied the 8th and 9th holes to end on a high on the North Course.

I've now layed out a little more cash, getting Anthony Kim onside at [10.0]. I backed AK in his first two starts of the season at long odds and was encouraged by his performances in both. The only reason I didn't back him from the start was his very poor form at Torrey Pines. I have Kim in mind for the Masters and I haven't seen anything yet to put me off - now fully recovered following a nasty hand injury sustained last year, 2011 could be the year AK kicks on and, just two shots off the lead at halfway, I can't quite see why he's as big as [10.0].

Sometimes you just have to laugh at this game. The plan in Bahrain was to place a few small bets at the start, get to grips with the new course and then get involved towards the end of day two - which is pretty much what I did. But to be out of the game before the leaders had even reached halfway on day three is desperate. And it wasn't as if I backed outsiders!

Round three saw Alvaro Quiros at least stop haemorrhaging bogeys, but he also stopped making birdies and Edoardo Molinari had a deplorable day on the greens, making nothing whatsoever with the putter.

I'm almost certainly out of the game here now and I'm not entirely sure I want to re-enter it either! Paul Casey and Peter Hanson head a tightly packed leaderboard but I don't fancy either at the short prices. Casey must be keen to win on the Colin Montgomerie designed course - it wouldn't be much compensation for missing the Ryder Cup but it would be slightly ironic should he win here, given the Scot overlooked him for a place in the European team last year.

I might back the Italian pair of Matteo Manassero and Francesco Molinari, should they drift to suitable prices, but then again, I might not. I do think the leaders are vulnerable though and that there might be some value from off the pace, but I've struggled from the start here and it may well be wise to just give up. I'm not going to whine and whinge about it though...unlike Mr Poulter! (See Mike's comment below).

14.25 - January 28, 2012

I was more than happy with the first round of the Farmers Insurance Open. Tiger Woods didn't score particularly well, playing the slightly easier North course and finishing the day on -3 but I thought he played well. His putting looked a little rusty but his iron-play was superb and I fancy he'll be there or thereabouts come Sunday.

The South Course, with an average of 72.73, played almost two shots tougher than the North Course, which averaged 70.96, so in theory, Phil Mickelson, who drifted all week in the run up to the start, should widen the gap between him and Woods. Lefty equalled the best score of the day on the South with a five under par 67. That was his best round there since 2004 and he was no doubt spurred on by his wife Amy's presence in the galleries.

Already aboard at [19.0], I greedily topped up on Lefty at [9.6] so I'm hoping he can keep things moving along. And he'll have to, despite the good start; he's still three off the lead - held by Korean rookie Sunghoon Kang.

We've now reached the halfway point of the Volvo Golf Champions and I've made a right mess of my book there and I had such a great plan. Wait until the afternoon starters have played eight holes and then make any plays after that. Instead I placed my first bet before the afternoon starters had even begun!

When Jose Manuel Lara birdied the 7th hole, his 16th of the round, to get to within two of the lead, I backed him at what looked a very generous [90.0]. It was too big because I layed half my stake straight back at [65.0] but then he double-bogeyed the 8th. I should have known then that it perhaps wasn't going to be my day in Bahrain.

I then decided that Edoardo Molinari looked too big at [6.0] as he birdied the 9th - his final hole of the day. I thought that if the wind was anything like as bad as had it been in the afternoon on day one, that he would be in a great position at halfway. It didn't blow at all, and those that played in the afternoon on day one have had the worst of the draw by far - the Molinari brothers are the only players from that side of the draw in the top-ten.

And just to finish off the mess I also backed Alvaro Quiros at [16.0] during his second round. He bogeyed two of his last five holes and can now be backed at twice that price! Oh well.

Somewhat bizarrely the pros will be joined by amateurs tomorrow. I have no idea whose idea that was but it's a pants one! I really dislike Pro-Ams but at least they usually have the amateurs play the first few rounds, and then they're out of the way by the final one. I'm under the impression they only join the pros for tomorrow's third round here, but why? The event's starting to hot up now, couldn't they have got in the way on day one?

14.15 - January 27, 2012

My initial impression of the Montgomerie Course this morning was that it was a very easy track. Hardly any of the competitors were over par and Johan Edfors reached -8 for his round, but as the wind got up in the afternoon the scoring slowed up.

The stats show it was actually just one stroke harder in the afternoon, but it looked tougher than that. I'm still unsure whether accuracy is going to win over power - Edfors leads the Greens In Regulation stats as well as the tournament and the presence of Francesco Molinari and Matteo Manassero on the leaderboard suggests accurate iron-play could win the day. But on the other hand, renowned big-hitter Alvaro Quiros is just three off the lead. He should have fared better but two visits to the water took the edge of a round which saw him birdie half of the holes he played.

What we do already know about the venue is that the finish is tough. The long par three 16th played the hardest and the last two holes ranked fifth and sixth in terms of difficulty. A lead of one or two with three or four to play on Sunday may well not be enough. And if playing in-running before that, the scoring section of the course appears to be from the ninth to the 14th but the run of five holes from the fourth hole before that is far from easy. Players face three of the toughest four holes on the course before pitching up on the ninth tee.

All four of my small initial plays had afternoon tee-times and none of them fared brilliantly. Rhys Davies looks out of it already, while both Thongchai Jaidee and Rafael Cabrera-Bello came to grief at the end of their rounds. Frustratingly, both dropped two shots over the closing three holes and ended the day on -3. The best of mine is Brett Rumford, who started his round on the 10th. Now on -4, he finished really well and I've had a small top-up at [150.00].

I haven't made any further plays yet but I suspect tomorrow's going to be a lot busier now that the watching brief is just about complete.

I'll be back again at around this time tomorrow, by which time we'll know how Tiger Woods and co have started off in the States.

Betfair website

FA Cup Betting: Arsenal v Huddersfield

FA Cup / Frank Gregan / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Arsene Wenger will play a few 'squad' players against Huddersfield - but it's not a bad squad to choose from

"I've kept pinching myself to make sure I'm not dreaming but odds against have been matched on Arsenal winning this game to nil."

Frank Gregan can't believe his eyes - near even money on a home win 'to nil' - fill yer boots time!

Sunday January 30
Kick Off 12:00, live on ESPN

An Arsenal fan returning from a 12 month expedition to the jungles of Borneo could be forgiven for thinking that his team have been relegated. This will be the Gunners' fifth game in seven matches against opposition from outside the Premier League. Their record in the last four games against the underdogs reads won two, drawn one and lost one, a return of only seven points had they been league games.

That's not the kind of return Wenger's men are used to but of course they were cup games and the bottom line is they progressed in both competitions - job done. At home to a side from League One, the Frenchman is unlikely to pick his strongest side but he won't be taking the opposition for granted.

Huddersfield come into this tie lying in third place in their division but they have conceded goals away from home recently. They lost 4-1 against Southampton at the end of last month and if they defend like they did against Carlisle last week in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy (they were beaten 4-0), the Gunners fans may have to take their shoes and socks off in order to keep the score!

Arsenal should be able to welcome Sebastien Squillaci (hamstring), Tomas Rosicky (virus) and Abou Diaby (calf) back to the squad. Huddersfield will be without the injured Jordan Rhodes (ankle) and youngster Benik Afobe who is on loan from the Gunners and is ineligible because of FA regulations relating to youth contracts.

Match Odds - Arsenal [1.14], Huddersfield [23.0], The Draw [10.5]
The [1.14] available on the Gunners is marginally bigger than their midweek starting price against Championship side Ipswich and if the Arsenal line up is strong there will be plenty out there happy to take a 14% return on their investment. The trend-buckers may have a go on Huddersfield at [23.0] but will probably opt to have the draw on their side by pressing the Arsenal lay button.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Another lop sided market with overs priced at [1.36] and unders at [3.7]. Those odds reflect the fact that eight of Arsenal's 11 home league games this season have yielded over 2.5 goals and against a side two divisions below it will be a shock if this is a low scoring affair.

Correct Score
Any unquoted (either team to score four goals or more) is available to back at [2.52] which is almost an identical price that was available in midweek prior to Arsenal's Carling Cup game against Ipswich. Keep an eye on this market In-Play because after 20 minutes on Tuesday night the price had swollen to [4.0] and with half an hour on the clock and the scores still level it was [5.0]. When Arsenal scored their third it plummeted to [2.3] affording plenty of opportunity to trade. Huddersfield will be desperate not to concede early and if they manage to hold out for 20 minutes or so a much more tempting price will be available.

Arsenal to Win to Nil
The old saying 'if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is' has been modified in the investment world with definitely replacing probably! However, I've kept pinching myself to make sure I'm not dreaming but odds against have been matched on Arsenal winning this game to nil. I understand the importance of the team-sheet and I accept that Lee Clark is a bright, attack-minded young manager but Arsenal are one of the best clubs in the country (and Europe) at home against a League One side and odds against represents tremendous value.

Best Bet: Back Arsenal to win to nil at [2.04] or better.
Other Recommendation: If Arsenal don't score early back any unquoted in the correct score market as soon as [4.0] or better becomes available.

Betfair website

Festival Trials Weekend Review: Can Grands Crus topple Big Buck's?

Results & Reviews / Timeform / 31 January 2011 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

Grands Crus pulls a long way clear of Knockara Beau

Timeform look back over the major talking points to emerge from Trials day at Cheltenham...

"The bare form Grands Crus achieved in beating Knockara Beau 10 lengths is not a great deal better than he achieved in a handicap the time before, but the really exciting thing about him is the promise of how much more there is still to come"

Festival Trials day at Cheltenham on Saturday certainly lived up to its billing, producing several performances that are sure to have implications for the big one in March. The undoubted star was Grands Crus, who laid down his claims as a more-than-credible challenger to Big Buck's in the World Hurdle when destroying the field in the three-mile Cleeve Hurdle. The bare form Grands Crus achieved in beating Knockara Beau 10 lengths is not a great deal better than he achieved in a handicap the time before, but the really exciting thing about him is the promise of how much more there is still to come. On Timeform ratings, Grands Crus is rated just 2 lb below Big Buck's, with a 'p' on his rating signifying the likelihood of further improvement.

In terms of having implications on the Festival, the day's next most significant race was the two-and-a-half mile Classic Novices' Hurdle, which was won by the Nicky Henderson-trained Bobs Worth. In beating Rock On Ruby by two and a quarter lengths, Bobs Worth ran to a level of form more or less on a par with what most Baring Bingham winners achieve, and he is rightly now the favourite for that race. The runner-up Rock On Ruby shaped almost as well as the winner and will certainly be worth his place in a Grade 1 at the Festival. The disappointment of the race was Backspin, whose below-form fourth resulted in his displacement at the head of the ante-post market for the Baring Bingham.

The day's most valuable event was the Grade 2 Argento (Cotswold) Chase over three and a quarter miles. The race has tended to be a Gold Cup trial in name only in recent seasons, and this year's renewal is unlikely to buck that trend. Nevertheless, Neptune Collonges produced a high-class performance, returning to something like his best, in beating the mercurial Tidal Bay by a length and a quarter. While anything more than a minor placing will likely prove beyond Neptune Collonges in the Gold Cup, he is reportedly under consideration for the Grand National, and appeals as the type to take to the unique demands of that race. The disappointment of the race was Punchestowns, who is yet to approach his top-class hurdles form as a chaser, not finding much having made mistakes on Saturday.

Elsewhere on the card at Cheltenham, Local Hero maintained his unbeaten record over timber in the Triumph Hurdle Trial, putting himself firmly in the picture for the main event at the Festival, while Philip Hobbs's novice chaser Wishfull Thinking put up a much improved performance to win the valuable Murphy Group Handicap, in so doing confirming himself a leading contender for the new Jewson Novices' Chase at the Festival.

Sunday's most interesting racing took place at Punchestown, where the highlight was a five-timer for Willie Mullins. The best of those five winners was Golden Silver, who upset hot favourite and reigning Champion Chaser Big Zeb in the Grade 2 Tied Cottage Chase. It is worth remembering that Golden Silver has disappointed both times he has run at Cheltenham, but the level of form he achieved at Punchestown puts him right in the mix for the Champion Chase. Big Zeb met with his first defeat since last season's Tingle Creek, but ran creditably all the same and probably didn't do his Champion Chase prospects too much harm, arguably hitting the front soon enough as Paul Townend delivered Golden Silver with a perfectly judged challenge to lead close home.

Betfair website

Follow The Money: Cheltenham Trials Day special!

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will today's Cheltenham selections come good?

"Backspin is undefeated in two starts over hurdles including a Grd1 last time, beating an impressive field."

Today's FTM market movers all come from the jumps action at Cheltenham.

Our first selection comes in the 15:05 2m4f Nov Hrd where Backspin has been well backed from [3.45] into [2.66]. The JP McManus-owned chestnut is undefeated in two starts over hurdles including a Grd1 last time, beating an impressive field. Today's race is not short of promising types either, but with the champion jockey aboard he sets the standard here.

Our next selection comes in the Cleeve Hurdle at 15:35. Grand Crus has drifted out from an early [2.92] out to [3.9]. This horse has won both starts this term but that was back in November. Today's race poses a much sterner test of his abilities as it is a big step up in class, also despite hailing from David Pipe's powerful and well respected stable his record with runners at Cheltenham is unimpressive with just a 8% strike rate and the drift seems to stabilise this view.

The final selection is in the final race of the day in the 16:10 2m1f Hcap Hrd. The horse in question, Cockney Trucker, has been supported from an early [21.0] into [15.0]. He is yet to win a handicap but there is plenty to like about his previous runs, he was a little too keen when fading into sixth last time out but can definitely improve on that effort. This is a very open race and with Richard Johnson enjoying a 16% strike rate when riding for Philip Hobbs at this course all the signs point towards a good run.

Recommended Bets:
Back Backspin @ 15:05 [2.66]
Lay Grand Crus @ 15:35 [3.9]
Back Cockney Trucker @ 16:10 [15.0]

Timeform's Simon Baker looks through the main contenders for what is shaping up to be the best Champion Hurdle in many seasons......

The XY Factor is at Lingfield on Saturday................

Today's FTM market movers all come from the jumps action at Cheltenham....

Betfair website

Fifth ODI Betting: Australia v England

ODI preview / Andrew Hughes / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Watson is coming home

"The home side are still a work in progress, but they have the firepower to triumph in these conditions"

England's spirited showing in Adelaide came at just the right time with the World Cup round the corner and it means this series is still alive with three to play. Andrew Hughes previews Sunday's action in Brisbane

Venue and Conditions
The ground has not been affected directly by the devastating floods that swept through Brisbane earlier this month and we can expect a typical Gabba wicket, offering plenty of pace and true bounce. Strokeplayers like Shane Watson will be in their element and there will be something for the fast bowlers too, particularly given that the groundsman has left a healthy covering of grass on the wicket.

Team News
It seems unlikely that England will make any changes, unless one of the team that won in Adelaide has picked up a knock subsequently. Michael Yardy and Matt Prior appear to have cemented their places and if there is to be a change, it could be that Chris Tremlett is rested and Chris Woakes gets a game.

Given the extra bounce in the surface, Australia will be desperate to get one or ideally both of Mitchell Johnson and Shaun Tait back into the side after their respective injury problems. They may not want to play two spinners, in which case, Xavier Doherty or Steve Smith will miss out.

Match Odds
England have given themselves a glimmer of a chance of winning the series by putting together a much better all-round performance in Adelaide. At just the right time, out of form players like Prior and Yardy turned up and Johnathan Trott's century was well-timed, although in the long term, his useful bowling spell might prove to be of more significance. The return of James Anderson lends their bowling a degree of menace it had lacked in the first three games.

But Australia have three more chances to put the series to bed and I think they will do it in Brisbane, particularly if both Johnson and Tait are fit. The pitch is more conducive to their fast bowling-dominated attack and they should cause England plenty of problems, whilst the likes of Watson, Cameron White, David Hussey and Brad Haddin should relish the true bounce of a typical Australian pitch. The home side are still a work in progress, but they have the firepower to triumph in these conditions and I will be backing Michael Clarke's men at [1.92]

Top Batsman
It will be an emotional return to Brisbane for local boy Shane Watson. Australia's man of the series so far, he has been in devastating form at the top of the order and will be determined to put on a show for his home crowd. He is the form horse and the one to be on at [4.5] or so in an Australian batting line up that hasn't always fired.

One or two England batsmen are looking good at the moment and many will want to back Trott to continue his excellent form. But this kind of pitch is tailor made for Kevin Pietersen's free-flowing game and batting at four is not a problem for such a quick scorer. He should be backed at [5.0] or better

Featured Market
The average top score on this ground is 91 and I think there is some mileage in backing 'Over 82.5' in the Highest Individual Score market at [1.86] or better.

Andrew Hughes says: Back Kevin Pietersen to top score for England @ [5.0]

Betfair website

Cheltenham Festival: Make sure the trends justify the means

Features / Simon Rowlands / 31 January 2011 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

Binocular prepped for the Champion Hurdle at Sandown in February 2010 and may do so again this year

Our resident blogger Simon Rowlands points out the shortcomings of some types of conventional trends analysis...

"The fact is that “trends” often seem to exist when they are looked at crudely and weaken or disappear altogether when the data is looked at in a more sophisticated manner. This is a point well worth bearing in mind at this time of year more than most."

Mark Twain is most often cited as the source of the phrase "...there are lies, damned lies, and statistics..." Whether or not it was he who first said it, it is a good job that the author of Huckleberry Finn and Tom Sawyer did not then cast his sceptical eye over racing, else he might have added "...and, finally, there are trends."

It is not that all trends are worthless, any more than that all statistics are worthless, just that rather a lot of them are. Their value depends not only on the information that is used but on how that information is interrogated and the conclusions that are drawn from it. Trends frequently fall down in this area.

Views about trends are never so much in evidence than in the lead up to the Cheltenham Festival. There is some justification in this. No race meeting in Britain - and possibly in the world - exerts the kind of pull that the Festival in March does. Horses are targeted at it from months, and sometimes years, in advance. Only good horses win there - well, almost only - and any systemic biases are likely to be crucial.

With that in mind, I thought I would do a quick reprise of some of the possible pitfalls of so-called trends analysis with six "golden" rules. My apologies to anyone who has read something similar from me before, but bad trends analysis seemingly won't go away.

1. Beware of small samples. If you look at most data on a microscopic basis you could easily convince yourself that a trend exists. I backed three winners out of four bets yesterday, but it would be wrong (VERY wrong!) to take that as representative of my betting as a whole.

2. Beware of big samples. The way to offset small samples is not to go so far back into history that the information you are using has little or no relevance to what is about to happen now. Trends, if they exist at all, tend to change over time. Keep things as contemporary as seems suitable.

3. Do not consider only winners. This is a common mistake. While winners are what most people get paid out on, a trend (if it exists) should potentially apply to all horses under consideration. Winners represent only a small fraction of the runners in races.

4. Take into account not just whether a horse wins or loses, but the degree to which it wins or loses. Should a non-winner that was beaten a short head be accorded the same significance as a non-winner that was tailed off? No.

5. Compare realisation with expectation. Horses of a certain age group might have won a given race 80% of the time, but that is neither here nor there if 80% of the time is exactly what you could expect from that age group's representation.

6. Do not apply filtering techniques unless they are strictly justified. The flawed reasoning is that you should rule horses out successively according to whether they "pass" certain criteria until only one or a few "qualifiers" are left. As an example of the folly of this, one criterion could be that a horse is rated a certain figure or higher, another could be that it had been born in a certain month. It is very unlikely that the criteria are of equal worth, and yet crude filtering implies that they are.

I was reminded of the pitfalls of conventional trends analysis by a recent internet discussion as to the worth of a horse prepping for the Champion Hurdle in a given month, a discussion that seems more significant than usual in view of the number of horses already having been put away for the Festival.

Seven of the nine winners of the Champion Hurdle since 2000 had their previous race in February. Then again, more horses - both winners and losers - had run most recently in February than in any other month. However, that is still a strike-rate roughly twice what could be expected.

Sixteen of the twenty-seven placed horses in the Champion Hurdle in the same period had prepped in February. That is roughly one and a half times what could be expected from that age group's representation.

However, if you consider all horses over the period - and the degree to which losers were beaten, not just simply that they were beaten - things become less cut and dried still. In terms of percentage of rivals beaten, which is usually a better way of looking at such matters, horses running in the Champion Hurdle that had prepped in February came out top again, but only just and not to a degree that should be a cause for excitement or a betting strategy.

The figures were: February 52.8%; December 51.8%; January 50.1%; and other months well behind. There is little in it between those three months, which provided over 90% of all runners, in other words.

The fact is that "trends" often seem to exist when they are looked at crudely and weaken or disappear altogether when the data is looked at in a more sophisticated manner.

This is a point well worth bearing in mind at this time of year more than most.

Betfair website

NBA Weekend Betting: Thunder can blow away Heat while Magic condemn Cavs

Basketball / Nick Shiambouros / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Kevin Durrant is playing his heart out for the Thunder

"The Oklahoma City Thunder can take care of the Heat in this one and should be priced at around [1.8] in the match odds market."

Nick Shiambouros selects the best bets from an exciting weekend NBA programme as Miami aim to get back on track in Oklahoma and Cleveland try to avoid a 19th straight defeat.

The New York Knicks beat the Miami Heat 93-88 in a pulsating encounter at Madison Square Garden on Thursday evening. The Heat led 73-64 at the beginning of the fourth quarter and looked in complete control but the Knicks had other ideas.

New York staged a rally late in the game and sealed the victory with consecutive three point shots from Danilo Gallinari and Landry Fields with just over a minute left. The celebrity filled crowd that included Donald Trump and Howard Stern gave the Knicks a standing ovation at the buzzer.

This is the best New York team we have seen in the past ten years and they look certain to make their presence felt in the post-season.

The Boston Celtics began a four game road trip with an emphatic 88-78 victory over Portland late on Thursday. The Celtics were in control of this game from the opening tip and were never threatened in this one sided affair. Boston are now three games ahead of Miami at the top of the Eastern Conference.

There are a couple of fascinating games taking place this weekend as the season continues.

On Sunday the Oklahoma City Thunder play host to the Miami Heat in a nationally televised game. The Thunder are having another solid year and are in fourth place in the Western Conference with a record of 28-16. Forward Kevin Durant is averaging over 28 points per game for Oklahoma and is one of the most explosive players in the game.

Russell Westbrook is another player who is having a good year for Oklahoma. This talented guard is averaging over 22 points per game and has developed a good understanding with Kevin Durant.

The Miami Heat have been hit with a spate of injuries lately and will probably be without Chris Bosh who is nursing a sprained ankle. Superstar Dwyane Wade has been fighting migraine headaches that have forced him to wear tinted covered goggles on the floor. Wade missed seven straight shots in the fourth quarter against New York on Thursday and was clearly in some discomfort.

Oklahoma City Thunder can take care of the Heat in this one and should be priced at around [1.8] in the match odds market.

The Orlando Magic are also in action on Sunday when they play the Cleveland Cavaliers at the Amway Center. The Cavs have the worst record in basketball and have only won eight games in the entire season. This franchise is in a world of trouble and has lost 18 games in a row.

The departure of LeBron James last summer has had a devastating effect on the team and the city of Cleveland. Forward Antawn Jamison is playing his heart out for Cleveland and is averaging just over 17 points per game. He is the one shining light in this disappointing rotation.

The Magic have recovered from a poor start to the season and are in fifth place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 29-16. Team leader Dwight Howard is having a superb year and is averaging a career best 22 points per game. Howard has just been voted starting center for the 2011 All-Star Game which takes place in California next month.

I expect the Orlando Magic will destroy Cleveland in this game. They are playing at a pretty high level and should run up the score against a demoralised Cavalier rotation. The Magic should trade around [1.8] with the handicap.

Recommended bets:
Sunday back Oklahoma City in the match odds market at [1.8]
Sunday back Orlando with advertised handicap at [1.8]

View the original article here

Serie A Betting: Old Lady to be dealt a killer blow

Italian Football / Editor / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Christams come early for Udinese fans? Toto Di Natale is one of the best finishers in Serie A and can give Juve serious problems

"Given the way that Udinese took on Inter last weekend, and the form that is being shown by both Antonio Di Natale and Alexis Sanchez, I’ll take the risk that an open game provides four goals at least, and that Udinese come out on top."

Udinese are one of the great entertainers of Serie A and have been in good form of late, making their trip to Juventus an intriguing one. Elsewhere, Napoli host Sampdoria...

Juventus v Udinese

When Francesco Guidolin turned down the Queen's Park Rangers job four years ago, few people in England had heard of him, but now his Udinese team is the talk of Serie A.

Udinese are unbeaten since the season resumed at the start of the month, and in those five matches they've scored fifteen times. ESPN viewers last Sunday morning were treated to an attacking masterclass against Inter Milan, and now Guidolin's team goes to the Olimpico in Turin to take a Juventus side who were rocked in midweek by their elimination from the Coppa Italia.

The manner in which a strong Juve team was picked apart by Roma must have been worrying for Gigi Del Neri and there are signs that the giants are in a little bit of trouble. A home win over Bari a couple of weeks ago was unconvincing, and aside from that, they've had the worst of a 0-0 draw at Sampdoria, and been beaten convincingly in Naples and at home by Parma.

That match against Guidolin's old team is the most fascinating form guide ahead of this match. Parma's coach Pasquale Marino used to be in charge of Udinese, and he went to the Olimpico with an attacking mentality and saw Parma run Juve off their feet in a 4-1 victory.

Udinese can do something very similar and Sunday night viewers may well witness the humiliation of Juventus. Del Neri has injury problems going into this one, and despite the probable return of Vincenzo Iaquinta, they're still not looking a threat in front of goal, and the second half of the season could be a long one. With the likely pattern of the match established, the question remains as to the best way for us to make money. Over 2.5 goals is certainly too big at [1.93], and Udinese are [3.5] for the away win. Given the way that Udinese took on Inter last weekend, and the form that is being shown by both Antonio Di Natale and Alexis Sanchez, I'll take the risk that an open game provides four goals at least, and that Udinese come out on top.

Recommendations:

Udinese to beat Juventus @ [3.5]

Over 3.5 Goals in Udinese v Juventus @ [3.3]

Napoli v Sampdoria

Napoli did the job for us last week at Bari, but as has already been discussed, they seem to look more comfortable away from home than they do at the San Paolo, and with Edinson Cavani probably out of the weekend's match against Sampdoria, they may find it hard to break down one of Serie A's dullest teams.

If Napoli haven't made a genuine challenge for the Scudetto by the end of the season, then this may be a year on which they look back with great regret. It feels like one of those transitional years in Italy, with none of the big clubs looking entirely convincing, and with the opportunity there to be grabbed by a Lazio or a Napoli. Roma may still come storming up the rails to win the title, but if Napoli can sort out their home form then they too can challenge.

They've already dropped ten points here this season, and while that might not sound like many, it's the nature of the opposition which will so have disappointed Walter Mazzari.

Fiorentina held them 0-0, Bari also drew, and Chievo beat them. Add those seven points to Napoli's total and they'd currently be three clear at the top. Sampdoria have played it safe since the turn of the year, with coach Mimmo Di Carlo realising that fight has become more important than flair, and since the resumption, Samp have failed to score in three of four games. They'll go to the San Paolo with the intention of getting a 0-0 draw, and with Cavani absent, they may well manage, despite their growing list of absentees. The 0-0 draw is trading at a tempting [12.0], but if you do take that price, then be very aware in play of the fact that Napoli make a habit of scoring late late goals here. I'm happy to take the [3.5] about their being under 1.5 goals, and may have a bit of fun In-Play as the 0-0 price dips below [1.2].

Recommendation Back under 1.5 goals in Napoli v Sampdoria @ [3.5]

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Australian Open Womens' Final: Killer instinct Kim

Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Kim Clijsters has a very strong record in finals

"As much as I would sincerely like to see Na Li win her first major, Kim’s mental toughness and dominance on the women’s circuit is hard to match. "

Ni La has already made history by becoming the first Chinese woman to reach a Grand Slam final but her record-breaking exploits will end there as shefaces a player who makes the most of her finall appearances.

Na Li has come a long way since her impressive semi-final finish last year that marked the first time in Grand Slam history that two Chinese women reached the singles semi-finals. Fast forward 12 months, and Li is breaking new records again, having made it through to the Australian Open 2011 final for the first time where she faces the reigning US Open Champion, Kim Clijsters.

The Belgian currently ranked three in the world has a 4-2 head-to-head series lead over Saturday's opponent, however their most recent match was won by Li in the final at the Sydney WTA Premier event three weeks ago (7-6 6-3).The finalists have contested two Grand Slam matches against each other, with Clijsters winning both in straight sets, 2009 US Open Quarter Final 6-2 6-4 and 2006 Wimbledon Quarter Final 6-4 7-5.

Li is yet to lose a match in 2011, recording prolific stats on her way to reaching the Aus Open final. The 28 year-old has won 11 matches in a row in Australia, 11 in a row on hard courts, and four of the last five when priced as a moderate underdog. Kim Clijsters also has decent stats and has been superb when it comes to playing in finals. The three time Grand Slam champion, who is vying for her first ever Australian Open title, is 8-2 in finals, whereas Na Li is 5-5 - she has won 13 in a row at Slam level and 17-2 in Australia since the start of 2010.

Both finalists are loved by the Australian public however it is Clijsters who is cherished that little bit more because of her links with Australian tennis legend Lleyton Hewitt. In the absence of defending champion Serena Williams, the Belgian's road to the finals became that little bit easier than in previous years. The 2003 Open finalist simply outplayed her semi-final opponent and number two seed Vera Zvonareva, dispatching of the Russian in two comfortable sets 6-3 6-3. She is yet to drop a set all tournament.

As much as I would sincerely like to see Na Li win her first major, Kim's mental toughness and dominance on the women's circuit is hard to match. The Belgian just about confirmed that this will be her last full season on the tour and the assumption is that's because she wants to have another kid or just be a full-time mother for a while. Either way, if that's confirmed (her second retirement), this will be her last Australian Open tournament and she will therefore want to go out in blaze of glory in front of her adopted home crowd.

Since 2006 only two Grand Slam Finals have been contested in three sets and I think this one will continue the trend: Clijsters will claim her fourth Grand Slam title in two tight sets.

Recommended Bets:
Back Kim Clijsters @ [1.34] to win match
Back Clijsters 2-0 @ [1.9]

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Winner Stays On: Revamping the FA Cup

Winner Stays On / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

The fair and mature way to find a winner if the match ends a draw

"If a team is playing against another which is two or more divisions below them that team should have to play with a handicap. Like having to eat a roast dinner just half an hour before kick-off. Or playing with shorts that are a little too big for the players. Or having to play with Niklas Bendtner in your starting line-up."

It's FA Cup this weekend so WSO has come up with a few suggestions as to how to make the competition interesting again, plus the small matter of the selections of our two contestants.

The danger that was Dangerous Dave is no more. He couldn't hack it. The pressure of being reigning Winner Stays On reigning champ got to him and he bottled it. There's no other way of describing it.

This week we kick off the competition with an FA Cup tie. Ah, the FA Cup. They say the competition creates heroes and makes dreams come true.

But here at WSO we're not so sure about that. All it seems to create is a congested fixture list and the only dreams that come true are those where your team gets knocked out early on so you can concentrate on more important matters.

So here are WSO's suggestions as to how the competition can be improved.

1)Make the draw more dramatic.They always get some World Cup winner from '66 in and they ask him to pick a ball out of a bowl. There are a few gasps and some representative from the club jots down who their team has drawn. As if they're going to forget on the way home or as if the information isn't available elsewhere. Play some music, get the mascots to square up to each other like they do in boxing, get a comedian to make some disparaging remarks about each club. Do something.

2)Make it a more even contest. A few weeks back I had the fortune to play a round of golf with a player ranked in the World's Top 10 in a charity event. Suffice to say, I suspect he'd played before. Suffice to say he played off a handicap. Suffice to say he still beat me to a pulp. But why should football be any different? If a team is playing against another which is two or more divisions below them that team should have to play with a handicap. Like having to eat a roast dinner just half an hour before kick-off. Or playing with shorts that are a little too big for the players. Or having to play with Niklas Bendtner in your starting line-up.

3)Scrap replays. No-one wants to have to play the same team just a few days after you've already played them, it's boring. Find a winner on the day. If it's a draw after 90 minutes, do what most mature adults do when trying to come to a solution. Get the PS3 out, pick your best player and have them play Pro Evolution Soccer against the opposition's best player on the console with the teams you actually play for. And let the game unfold on the big screens so the crowd can feel involved. If that ends a draw too, get the two captains to play paper-scissors-stone, best of three. At no point should the teams resort to a penalty shoot-out. That's just pot luck and doesn't help us find the deserved winner.

Looking for deserved winners this week are reigning champ If Only and challenger Ahenbest.

This week's matches:

If Only's selections:

Everton v Chelsea-Back Over 2.5 goals at 2.02
Arles v PSG- Back a PSG clean sheet at 2.14
Lazio v Fiorentina- Lazio to score two goals or more at 3.6

Ahenbest's selections

Everton v Chelsea- Back Chelsea to win at 2.08
Arles v PSG- Back PSG to win at 1.57
Lazio v Fiorentina- Lay Lazio at 2.24

View the original article here

XY Factor - Friday 28 January

XY Factor / XY Factor / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton on Friday.....

Today's Race: Kempton 7.10

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
3 point win and 3 point place BEL CANTOR [6.8]

Yesterday's Return: +19.56

Running Return (January)
-48.46

VERDICT:
Mr Chocolate Drop (Betfair SP 6.3) won well last night to help claw back some of January's losses. We head to Wolverhampton for the 7.10 race tonight and are looking towards BEL CANTOR to go very close. He has finished second at Southwell in his last two starts but seems to go equally well on the Polytrack and can hopefully go one better here.

All the betting moves ahead of the evening racing at Wolverhampton...

Today's Follow The Money movers run at Fontwell and Doncaster....

It's the first of two days of top racing at Doncaster, and Town Moor is where we are for today's placepot attempt......

View the original article here

FA Cup Betting: Southampton v Manchester United

FA Cup / Dan Fitch / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Hernandez could start after his super sub appearance in midweek.

They may have had to come from behind against Blackpool, but the visitors have been leading at half-time in six of their last eight wins, in which they have scored within the first five minutes on five occasions.

Southampton might have past form in beating Manchester United in the FA Cup, but Dan 'The Betting Man' Fitch expects no shocks against a visiting side that are quick off the mark. Best Bet: Back Manchester United to win half-time/full-time @ [2.2].

Venue: St Mary's

Kick-Off/TV: 17:15/ITV1

Despite having won the FA Cup more than any other team, Manchester United have not had their hands on the trophy since 2004. As the [5.1] favourites to win the competition, they are expected to make it safely through to the fifth round on Saturday.

Standing in their way are Southampton, who famously beat United to win the FA Cup in 1976. On that day there was one division dividing the teams. These days they are two divisions and a whole world apart.

Manchester United are likely to rotate their squad and will definitely have a fringe player between the posts, as Edwin van der Sar has been left out, giving an opportunity to either Anders Lindegaard or Tomasz Kuszczak to prove that they can replace him next season. Rio Ferdinand, Patrice Evra and Rafael da Silva are also all out, while Michael Carrick is doubtful with an injury.

Southampton could be without their skipper Dean Hammond who has a calf problem and Adam Lallana, who had been suffering from a knee injury. New singing Dany N'Guessan, who arrives on loan from Leicester, is available.

Match Odds: Southampton [8.4], the draw [4.8], Manchester United [1.48]

Manchester United may have gone out of the FA Cup to League 1 opposition last season, but I don't expect them to make the same mistake twice and think that the [1.48] on offer for an away win is good value.

United's defence might have an unfamiliar look and offer Southampton some encouragement, with the likes of Wes Brown, Chris Smalling, Jonny Evans and Fabio all in the running to start.

In the midfield and attack though, the visitors have more strength in depth. Ryan Giggs should start having come on at half-time to rescue his side in midweek, while Javier Hernandez will relish the opportunity to get back amongst the goals after scoring on Tuesday.

Southampton knocked out Premier League opposition in the form of Blackpool in the third round, but lightning rarely strikes twice.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 [1.73], Under 2.5 [2.32]

Southampton are a good defensive side, with only top of the table Brighton having conceded less goals within their division. With that in mind, the [2.32] available for under 2.5 goals could give you an opportunity to trade In-Play.

It's a risky strategy though. In the last week United have shown against Birmingham and Blackpool that they've got plenty of goals in them and it will only take an early one for the game to open up.

Therefore I'd recommend backing the overs at [1.73]. With United looking likely to field a weakened defence both teams could easily get on the score-sheet.

Half Time/Full Time

If you fancy a United win but think that the match odds are too small for your liking, then I'd recommend backing them to be winning at half-time and full-time at [2.2].

They may have had to come from behind against Blackpool, but the visitors have been leading at half-time in six of their last eight wins, in which they have scored within the first five minutes on five occasions.

If you reckon that the Saints will make life tough, the draw/Manchester United is [4.9] and the draw/draw is [7.8].

First Goalscorer

Considering that the Mexican is likely to start, the [5.5] that should be available for Hernandez to open the scoring when the market opens on Betfair, looks better than the [4.2] for Dimtar Berbatov or the [4.5] for Wayne Rooney.

The much hyped Alex-Oxlade Chamberlain should be priced at around [18.0] for Southampton, with Richard Lambert the favourite for the home team at about [11.0].

Best Bet: Manchester United to win half-time/full-time @ [2.2]

Recommended Bets: Over 2.5 goals @ [1.73], Javier Hernandez to score first @ [5.5]

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Nick Shiambouros' Patented 80/20 Bet: Cheltenham, 15:05

80/20 / Nick Shiambouros / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Nick's backing an improving horse to do the business at Cheltenham today in his win and place special bet, will you follow?

Today's 80/20 is Champion Court in the 15:05 at Cheltenham.

This gelding was very impressive last time out when thrashing Sybarite over this course last November. He quickened in the manner of a very good horse approaching the final flight and pulled away for a decisive victory. I think he is open to further improvement and should run well at a decent price. At present he is trading at [10.0] on the exchange.

Nick's backing an improving horse to do the business at Cheltenham today in his win and place special bet, will you follow?...

Racecourse: Doncaster First Race Time: 12:40 Going: Good, Good to Firm in places Other Information: SECOND INSPECTION AT 9:30. -3ºC overnight, -2ºC at 6.30am, top temperature today 2-3ºC. The whole course was covered after the last race yesterday....

Racecourse: Lingfield Park First Race Time: 12:50 Going: Standard...

Betfair website

FA Cup Betting: The pick of this weekend's non-TV games

FA Cup / Mike Norman / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gus Poyet’s Brighton side are set to play out an entertaining encounter at the home of Watford

"The Hornets’ last five home games – in which they have won every one – have averaged 4.2 goals per game, whilst Gus Poyet’s Brighton have scored 15 goals in six games since the turn of the year."

Mike Norman takes a look at five of this weekend's FA Cup ties and fancies Watford and Brighton to share a bag full of goals. Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] in Watford v Brighton.

Aston Villa [1.85] v Blackburn [4.9]; The Draw [3.8]

If Villa can stay relatively injury-free, and get lucky in the draw, then I fancy them to go a long way in this season's competition. First they have to get past Blackburn of course, but after two league wins in four days Gerard Houllier's men should be full of confidence. Darren Bent is cup-tied, but the Villa squad is full of attacking talent and I can see them getting past Rovers with relative ease.

Blackburn are performing much better than I thought they would under Steve Kean but their away form remains a concern; they've lost five of their last six, the last two without scoring a goal. The two bets I like in this game are Villa/Villa at [3.1] in the Half Time/Full Time market, and the 2-0 Correct Score - available to back at [11.0].

Birmingham [1.88] v Coventry [5.2]; The Draw [3.5]

With one Wembley appearance already secured it's difficult to envisage Alex McLeish instructing his Birmingham side to go all out to progress in this competition. Premier League safety has to be Birmingham's priority, so with some heavy legs in the squad after playing 120 minutes on Wednesday night, McLeish is likely to rest a few players for the visit of Coventry.

The home side should (and probably will) still be too strong for an out-of-form City side but at the odds I'm prepared to give the visitors a chance. It's pointless me recommending any bets involving a Coventry win as they'd be more out of hope than confidence, so at [1.89], a lay bet on Birmingham is my only wager in this game.

Bolton [1.73] v Wigan [5.5]; The Draw [4.0]

Bolton have gone on a really poor run of form but I don't think they are playing as bad as their results suggest - in fact against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea (at Stamford Bridge) they were arguably the better team. The worry is that they put in their worst performance of the season last time against Chelsea, but on this occasion I'm prepared to forgive them as their fourth round opponents Wigan are playing some awful football of their own.

If both sides really set out to win this game then we could be in for an entertaining encounter, however, I'm not sure that will be the case. Like Birmingham, Wigan's priority is Premier League survival and I have a feeling we'll see a few unfamiliar faces in their line-up. Under 2.5 Goals ([1.9]) is likely to be the outcome, though my best of this game is Bolton Win to Nil - available to back at [3.2].

Watford [1.92] v Brighton [4.4]; The Draw [3.8]

This promises to be one of the most entertaining of all fourth round fixtures - Championship play-off hopefuls Watford score for fun whilst Brighton also know how to attack and currently sit top of League One. Basically, every man and his dog are expecting goals in this game and I'll be surprised if anyone is left disappointed.

Predicting the outcome of the game is a hard one - my marginal preference would be for the home side - so it is probably best that we stick to the goals markets. Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.84], but I'm going to make Over 3.5 Goals ([3.1]) my best bet of the weekend. The Hornets' last five home games - in which they have won every one - have averaged 4.2 goals per game, whilst Gus Poyet's Brighton have scored 15 goals in six games since the turn of the year.

West Ham [2.32] v Nottm Forest [3.7]; The Draw [3.4] (Playing Sunday)

The Premier League strugglers featured so far (Birmingham and Wigan) I've tipped to encounter problems in their respective fourth round ties, but in West Ham's case I have a small hunch that they'll do ok. Beating Forest - who have won seven of their last eight games - won't be an easy task however, but how many opportunities will you get to back a Premier League side at home to a Championship side at odds of [2.32]?

True, the Hammers are bottom of the Premier League for a reason, but their recent results (won two, drew two and lost two of their last six) suggests they are improving, albeit slowly. As I've said, Forest are in great form but I still think there's a big gulf between the top two divisions in English football. I fancy a few goals here and have no hesitation backing Over 2.5 Goals at [2.06], but my main bet in this game is simply to back a home win.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] in Watford v Brighton
Back Aston Villa HT/Aston Villa FT at [3.1] v Blackburn
Lay Birmingham at [1.89] v Coventry
Back Bolton Win to Nil at [3.2] v Wigan
Back West Ham at [2.32] to beat Nottm Forest

*Mike's record on his Best Bets this season is 17 wins from 38 selections resulting in a profit/loss of +£2.40 (£10 stake/liability per selection)

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Is Andy Murray the Tom Okker of this tennis generation?

Australian Open Betting / Jack Houghton / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Murray grab a slice of tennis glory at the third time of asking?

"For every Agassi or Lendl who announces their Grand Slam intentions with a plucky final defeat or two; there is a much longer list of those who get close without ever delivering when it really matters."

There's a long list of Grand Slam finalists who never quite made it to the top table of tennis winners, says Jack Houghton, and good though he is, Andy Murray may just be the Magnus Norman of the 2000s

Here's a great quiz question for you. What do the tennis players Tom Okker, Dick Crealy and Harold Solomon all have in common?

Unless you possess a freakishly strange statistical knowledge of 1970s tennis, it's highly likely you haven't the first clue. In fact, I'm willing to bet that a high percentage of you won't even recognise the names.

Don't worry; you're not deficient in any way. After all, they could be any Tom, Dick and Harry (boom boom).

I could have been a lot kinder with the question. A trio of Robin Soderling, David Nalbandian and Andy Murray would have made things easier - three more names picked at random from the 44 tennis players who have played in a Grand Slam final in the Open Era without winning one.

It's a statistic that will do little to calm the nerves of those willing Murray to victory in Sunday's Australian Open Final (BBC1 and Eurosport, 08:15 GMT).

Sure, Murray is a player full of promise, and with this his third appearance in a Grand Slam final, he certainly seems to have more going for him than the lowly-ranked player who enjoys a run of form to coincide with a serendipitous draw. Mal Washington he's not; he's made his third final on merit.

After all, he's been winning Tour titles for a few years now, and has been in the world's top-five since 2008. Surely he's going to win a title that matters before long? Surely he isn't destined to be a perennial also-ran; remembered only by tennis stato-freaks contesting highly-specialist pub quizzes in years to come?

I guess we'll find out; and maybe even before our eggs and bacon have digested on Sunday morning. But it's worth remembering that for every Agassi or Lendl who announces their Grand Slam intentions with a plucky final defeat or two; there is a much longer list of those who get close without ever delivering when it really matters.

Particularly telling is that, looking down the list of the most successful Grand Slammers of the last 40 years - Federer, Nadal, Sampras, Courier, Edberg, Becker, McEnroe, Borg, Connors - they all took their Grand Slam opportunity at the first time of asking. Murray may well win one, but he doesn't look a likely candidate to forge a long career at the very top of the game.

On Sunday morning of course, such concerns will be irrelevant. Murray's mind will be on his first title; the history-making can wait.

At the prices though, I'll be backing Novak Djokovic ([1.75]). He outplayed Federer in the semi, producing a performance beyond anything Murray has yet to produce in his career. And he's delivered on a Grand Slam match point, which might be the most decisive factor of all.

Murray's Tour credentials and Grand Slam near-misses might seem appealing, but just go look at some of the other possible names in our quiz question - Todd Martin, Magnus Norman and Guillermo Coria will get you started. Many promised as much as Murray; but none converted.

Murray might have what it takes to beat Djokovic this weekend; but it's more likely he'll further cement his place on a long list of nearly-but-not-quites.

Recommended Bet:
Back Novak Djokovic @ [1.75] to win the Australian Open

Betfair website

Australian Open Result: Clijsters grand slam champion in Melbourne

Australian Open Betting / Joe Dyer / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Clijsters can now add the Australian Open to the list of Grand Slams she has won

"Clijsters never traded higher than [5.0] in the tournament winner."

Belgian is matched at [3.8] for the win after losing first set

Kim Clijsters is the Australian Open champion for the first time after beating Na Li in three sets today.

The Belgian, a Melbourne finalist in 2004, overcame a first set defeat to reign in her Chinese opponent taking the final two sets 6-3, 6-3 to win the title.

Clijsters was troubled during the opening skirmishes, losing the first set 6-3, and was matched at a high of [3.8] to emerge victorious.

And during a topsy-turvy second set Na Li was backed at [1.33] to win the match as the women traded service games, with neither able to dominate.

Clijsters never traded higher than [5.0] in the tournament winner. Li, on the other hand, was backed at a high of [200.0] and a low of [1.41]. A nice trade in anyone's books!

Betfair website

Irish Racing Tips: Arctic Mick to skate in

Tipping / Patrick Jupp / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

A 7-race card at Fairyhouse is scheduled to start at 13.10

"No prizes for originality with this one but Arctic Mick (14.40) looks banker material in the handicap hurdle over two and a half miles"

Fairyhouse is the venue for today's Irish action and we've got three win bets lined up.....

Backing Johnny McGeeney (13.40) won't be everyone's cup of tea after his rather tame finishing effort when third at Cork last time, but he'll face nothing of Byerley Bear's calibre today and did shape really well when second at Gowran the time before, that effort by some way the best on offer here. He looks the likeliest winner in a race lacking depth, whilst another angle could be to use the safety net of a back-to-lay approach, Johnny McGeeney's strong-travelling style making a short in-running price a very likely scenario.

The novice handicap hurdle at 14.10 contains a couple of last-time-out winners, namely Turner Brown and Ardglen, and both warrant respect. However, they are hardly the types to go under the radar so a better value bet may be Catleen. She ran as well as could be expected when sixth on her chasing debut at Thurles last time but it's her earlier effort at this track that marks her out as being potentially ahead of her mark. That day she really caught the eye with how she travelled into the race and was only nailed on the run-in by the up-and-coming Trendelenburg. Today's shorter trip will play to her strengths and she's reunited with Paul Townend as well.

No prizes for originality with this one but Arctic Mick (14.40) looks banker material in the handicap hurdle over two and a half miles. He's proved steadily progressive since joining Michael O'Hare and turned a run-of-the-mill handicap chase at Navan earlier this week into something of a procession (won by ten lengths). He took that race off an ITC mark of 93 and is able to race here off 80, so the only worry is that he's turned out quickly after scoring in heavy ground.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Back Johnny McGeeney in 13.40 at Fairyhouse
Back Catleen in 14.10 at Fairyhouse
Back Arctic Mick in 14.40 at Fairyhouse

Nick's backing an improving horse to do the business at Cheltenham today in his win and place special bet, will you follow?...

Racecourse: Doncaster First Race Time: 12:40 Going: Good, Good to Firm in places Other Information: SECOND INSPECTION AT 9:30. -3ºC overnight, -2ºC at 6.30am, top temperature today 2-3ºC. The whole course was covered after the last race yesterday....

Racecourse: Lingfield Park First Race Time: 12:50 Going: Standard...

Betfair website