March 31, 2011

The Lord's Lays: Two to oppose at Swindon

General RSS / The Lord / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

General

"If there are any chinks in Bush Paddy's armour, the presence of two marathon dogs could see him denied even after an early lead."

It's the Arc final live on Sky Sports 4 from Swindon tonight. The Lord has two short-shots you should be... against.


Aherlow Shaw (19:40)

Could be one of the punts of the night for many, but is worth taking on. He has packed an early punch in so many of his races, but arrives at Swindon following a short lay-off. Will the edge be off him? Will he stay after being caught over a faster 480m at Monmore? And surely Mountjoy Moon will be heavy presence on his inside, and will be pushing to middle and wide ground from two. Take him on.

Bush Paddy (21:10)

A cracking winner of the Golden Jacket at Crayford, but this is chalk and cheese to that. The 737m trip puts pressure on his stamina and a healthy lead will be required. That could be difficult with pace either side of him. And if there are any chinks in his armour, the presence of two marathon dogs in the field in the shape of Killishin Masai, a dog with good course and distance form, and Santiago Lad could see him denied even after an early lead.



Recommended Bets

Lay Aherlow Shaw @ [4.1] in the 19:40 @ Swindon
Lay Bush Paddy @ [3.25] in the 21:10 @ Swindon

The title of this column may suggest a dubious night out in Essex but the Lord intends to stay on the straight and narrow with some smart selections......

The Lord livens up the midweek dogs fare by taking on the big boys at Notts......

The Lord selects a pair of dogs to oppose in tonight's South Yorkshire action......


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Winner Stays On: Making your own luck

Winner Stays On RSS / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

210 Winner Stays On

"Here at WSO we feel we have more in common with the Bobster. Sick of If Only and his attitude, strut and general contempt for his opponents, we decided to do something about it. After all, if these were characteristics we condoned, we would be fans of Paul Robinson. Which we’re not."

If Only has finally been knocked out and we here at Betfair Towers are taking all the credit for it.

I once had a housemate who was a tad lazy.

He'd walk into the hall where there were two light switches separated by about ten feet. The first was the one for the kitchen, a room in the house that he had no need for (he didn't cook). The second switch was for the lounge where he spent the vast majority of each and every day (he didn't work) watching TV, playing Playstation and occasionally looking at the pictures in the newspaper (he didn't like to read). He could never remember which switch was which so if he turned one on and it was the one for the kitchen, which he didn't want, he'd sit down on the sofa in darkness for the rest of the day.

When this happened I'd occasionally ask him why he didn't walk over to the other light switch, turn it on, and in the process turn off the light in the kitchen.

His response was generally something quite philosophical, along the lines of "it wasn't meant to be", "destiny decided that I should be paired with darkness" or "we can't decide our own fate. That's for someone Else to do". The latter phrase was normally accompanied with a raising of the eyebrows and a rolling of his eyes towards the ceiling.

This attitude is of course is in sharp contrast to Robert the Bruce and his spider mate. Bob felt we made our own destiny and if things went wrong the first time, it was us and not some higher being, who could rectify that.

Here at WSO we feel we have more in common with the Bobster. Sick of If Only and his attitude, strut and general contempt for his opponents, we decided to do something about it. After all, if these were characteristics we condoned, we would be fans of Paul Robinson. Which we're not.

Hence, you'll remember we strategically placed black cats and ladders in his path and warned our readers of the consequences of him carrying on winning WSO every week. He'd become Prime Minister with Paul Robinson as his Deputy, you'll recall.

And it worked. FFormigal responded to our plea and took him out. Not for dinner. Nor did he "take him out" in the Tony Soprano sort of way, you understand. He eliminated him from our family-friendly competition and in the process restored the values that are the cornerstone of this wonderful contest. And for that, we thank him.

This week's matches

Napoli v Lazio
Rennes v Auxerre
Benfica v Porto

Fformigal's selections

Napoli v Lazio - Back Lazio to win at [5.9]
Rennes v Auxerre- Back Rennes to win at [1.77]
Benfica v Porto- Back Benfica to win at [2.4]

Paulscholes18's selections

Napoli v Lazio- Napoli to win 1-0 at [6.4]
Rennes v Auxerre- Back 1-1 draw at [7.8]
Benfica v Porto- Back both teams to score at [1.9]

The consequences of If Only's incredibly fortunate win last week could end up being disastrous. Read on to find out why....

If Only keeps on winning and quite frankly, we're pretty sick of him......

Reigning champ If Only tries to make it six in a row with Arenal's trip to Old Trafford amongst this week's matches....


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Negreanu Mounts Epic Comeback

Poker News RSS / Matthew Pitt / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

100 Poker News

A week ago Daniel Negreanu played the first of his two 2,500 heads up matches against the enigmatic Viktor "Isildur1" Blom and got owned by both the young Swede and the deck. In fact he was that badly beaten that he became the first of Blom's "SuperStar Showdown" challengers to lose their $150,000 bankroll before the allocated 2,500 hands had been played. However, that did not deter the plucky Canadian and he sat down across four tables of $50/$100 heads up no limit Hold'em tables on Sunday with a fresh $150,000 on the line.

A large percentage of the online poker community thought that Negreanu should have pulled out of this second battle because of how the first encounter went down but he was determined to prove he has what it takes to play the very best players at their own game. Within 1,300 hands it looked as if Negreanu's decision to play was one of the worst of his life as he was down another $120,000 and it looked as if he could go broke even sooner than the 1,439 hands it took in the previous match.

Negreanu cited the main reason for his early demise in the first match was the fact he ran massively under EV, especially in pots of $20,000 or greater. In fact he won only two of the 14 pots of this size. It appeared that he had really angered the poker gods because his horrific run continued into the second 2,500 hand match. He first lost an AsQc versus kings encounter all in preflop then in another hand he raised to $300, Blom made it $1,200 to play and Negreanu put in a further raise to $3,100. Blom called this then shoved on a 5h-4h-2h flop only to find Negreanu making the call with Jh8h for a flopped flush, but the turn and river were both fives, which gave Blom an unlikely full house!

This prompted Negreanu to type, "This is unreal," in the chat box before adding ,"You run insane against me." Blom admitted this in his response of ,"Yep its really insane." Negreanu then continue to run bad first losing with AcJc versus Kd3d with the money going in on a Ad-Jc-6d flop then getting the dreaded kings into aces situation that we all love to hate. Then something happened and Negreanu flopped the nut straight on a two-flushed board and won a substantial pot as he faded Blom's flush draw. This was followed by Negreanu calling Blom's $55,700 shove into a $4,000 pot on a Tc-9c-4d flop in a four-bet pot. Blom held 9h7h to Negreanu's KdKc and the comeback was well and truly on.

The outspoken Canadian then scooped a $56,300 pot when his aces held against QdJh on a Js-6c-5c flop and then 350 hands from the end he actually nudged in front when his Ah8h bested the 8d7d of Blom when the final board ran out As-7c-5s-6h-8c. With 38 hands to go there was an impromptu pause during which Negreanu admitted to going on tilt saying that he had "broke lots of stuff" in his room and that he had "smashed everything." In the last 38 hands there was only one all in encounter and Negreanu won that, his aces beating Blom's fours all in preflop. When the challenge came to an end they had actually played 2,502 hands and Negreanu, despite being down $120,000 at one stage, had actually won with a profit of $26,500. An epic comeback.

At the end of the match Negreanu was full of praise for Blom calling him "incredible" and saying that he hopes to be able to have some lessons from the 20-year old Swede as he "is the best." Blom takes on Scott "urnotindangr" Palmer this coming Sunday in another two 2,500 hands battles. Many believe Palmer will be Blom's toughest opponent since he began his so-called SuperStar Showdown challenge. This writer is of that train of thought too, it should be one of the true online battles.

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Timeform US Tips: Wednesday March 30

US 1-2-3 RSS / Timeform / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

003 US 1-2-3

After more success yesterday, here are three recommendations for Wednesday from Timeform's US team...

Tampa Bay Downs race 4 (18:45 GMT) #10 SNUGGLIN JO JO win back at [2.80] or bigger

Hawthorne race 8 (22:53 GMT) #4 WEEKEND PASS win lay at [4.0] or smaller

Charles Town race 2 (00:41) #7 MR KEEPER win lay at [4.0] or smaller

Get a free form guide for racing in the US & Canada at http://bit.ly/dP3Uvj.


With both of yesterday's lays losing, the Timeform US team are in good form and here are their three advised bets for today......

After two winners from three selections yesterday, including one at [22.0], here are two lays and a play for Monday from the Timeform US team......

On the back of winners at [7.2] and [4.0] yesterday, here are three more bets from Timeform's US team......


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Afternoon Market Movers: Wednesday March 30

Market Movers RSS / Editor / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

This afternoon's market movers from Catterick, Hereford and Lingfield.

Catterick

14:20
Fashion Icon 9.60 out to 16.0
Radiator Rooney 12.0 out to 19.0

14:50
Dazeen 13.0 in to 8.60

15:20
Kiama Bay 4.30 out to 5.80
Baltimore Clipper 8.40 in to 6.0
The Oil Magnate 11.0 in to 7.40

15:50
Thrust Control 7.40 in to 5.70
Royal Dignitary 4.60 out to 7.0

16:20
Another Wise Kid 11.0 in to 6.60

17:20
Majestic Millie 9.73 in to 7.20


Hereford

14:10
Raya Star 3.50 out to 4.90

14:40
Chicago Alley 2.98 out to 4.20
Formedable 23.0 in to 11.0

16:10
E Street Boy 1.90 in to 1.57
The Composer 6.80 out to 12.0

16:40
Sourchamp 12.0 in to 7.20

17:10
Little Fritz 2.70 in to 2.08


Lingfield

14:00
Bold Diva 4.40 out to 5.20
Thoughtsofstardom 21.0 in to 13.0

14:30
Miss Work Of Art 3.20 in to 2.40

15:00
Speak The Truth 7.0 in to 4.50
Bianco Boy 4.50 out to 9.0

16:00
Shaded Edge 9.60 in to 7.20
Teen Ager 14.0 in to 10.50
Crazy Parachute 16.0 in to 10.0

16:30
Camps Bay 6.40 out to 8.40

This evening's market movers from Wolverhampton......

All the latest price movements on Betfair's racing markets....

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Plumpton, Towcester and Wolverhampton...


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Timeform 1-2-3 Tips: Wednesday March 30

Timeform 1-2-3 RSS / Adam Brookes / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Fresh from his victory on Presvis in Dubai, Ryan Moore is back in action at Lingfield today.

Fresh from his victory on Presvis in Dubai, Ryan Moore is back in action at Lingfield today.

"..if Moore can poach an easy lead (on Deauville Post) before kicking off the home bend, he should be very difficult to get past."

No 20-runner races for very sharp juveniles, no ante-post plunges on Group horses in handicaps, no trainers firing out six darts with a single throw in order to claim the first big prize of the season. Well not until Saturday anyway; but the Flat season does indeed start today at Catterick and thankfully we won't need to worry about reversing any draw bias as the powers that be have broke us in gently, with all three Flat meetings staged today at left-handed courses.

Right, after all that build-up, I have to concede that with five of the seven races at Catterick being wide-open handicaps featuring a number of horses who have been plying their trade on artificial surfaces, for betting purposes we should concentrate on the other meetings, in particular Lingfield.

The opener looks as good a place as any to begin and in Far View we have just the horse to get us off to a winning start after his impressive victory in February on his first start for George Baker. Admittedly, he was below that form when possibly finding the race coming too soon at Wolverhampton last time, but, returning to Lingfield will suit and he has the perfect draw in stall 2 to capitalise on his early pace, especially as there are no other obvious front-runners in the field. What's more, with Jimmy Fortune taking over from apprentice jockeys, albeit very capable ones, he looks set fair for a very bold show.

A six-furlong all-weather seller has never been my idea of fun, but a winner is a winner and hopefully Waterloo Dock will be a tasty-priced one at that after the 15:30 today. The quandary with this horse is whether he can reproduce his form of earlier in the year, or whether his last two dismal runs are the ones to judge him on. I'd be inclined to give him another chance, especially in this lowly company and with first-time blinkers, Martin Dwyer in the saddle and a perfect draw in stall 2, he's taken to make all the running and cling on.

Finally, Ryan Moore makes his first appearance since returning from Dubai at Lingfield today and it would appear that Richard Hannon has sorted him out with at least one winner. Deauville Post lost his form midway through last season but came back to something like his best when second to Fantastic Strike at Kempton in October, on the back of a near two-month break. That form, accompanied by the promise he showed in maidens at the beginning of 2010, makes him a very attractive betting proposition in a race comprising otherwise exposed horses, and if Moore can poach an easy lead before kicking off the home bend, he should be very difficult to get past.

Recommendations

Back Far View @ [3.85] Lingfield 14:30
Back Waterloo Dock @ [8.2] Lingfield 15:30
Back Deauville Post @ [3.25] Lingfield 16:30

Technically it's the eve of the Flat season, but Catterick tomorrow is a poor card and we all know that the turf doesn't really kick off until Doncaster on Saturday, so until then we'll persevere with what's available, starting at Southwell this afternoon......

Luscious scenery, Sussex hog roast baps, and one of the best racecards in the land, Plumpton has it all. It's also the venue for Monday's three tips....

Three bets for Sunday from the Timeform Free Form Website....


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Catterick Placepot: Wednesday March 30

Daily Placepots RSS / Harry Bowles / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

The turf season gets underway at Catterick this afternoon

The turf season gets underway at Catterick this afternoon

"Danceintothelight was rather more fully campaigned as a juvenile hurdler, winning two of four completed starts, and with fitness assured and conditions fine, he looks one to keep on side."

Contrary to others, I have no problem with the turf season getting under way with a decidedly workaday card at Catterick. Sure, there'll be the odd big-race meeting here and there, but it's such tracks as Catterick - and such horses as Fremen et al - who are going to occupy the bulk of our time in the coming months. Get used to it!

14:20 - No half-volley looseners to get us off to an easy start, then, the opening sprint handicap for apprentices making for a particularly tricky first leg. A low draw looks set to prove an advantage and Wanchai Whisper, in four, makes some appeal on her first start for Mark Rimmer. Her fitness is assured, and even if she hasn't won for a while is reasonably consistent and is suited by coming off a strong pace. Rio's Girl is less exposed than most and warrants plenty of respect after a couple of getting-to-know-you runs at Wolverhampton for her new yard.

14:50 - April Fool has been in good touch on the AW, winning three since the turn of the year, but he's just as effective on turf and looks a sound starting-off point in the seven-furlong handicap which follows. He usually forces the pace, but he's shown before that doing so is no a prerequisite, so he'll be equally happy tracking the leaders with a couple of other front-runners in the line-up. Dazeen isn't one for win purposes, but for our needs is well worth incorporating. Despite being a maiden, he's finished placed on ten of his nineteen starts - including the last five - and he showed himself to have returned in form over an insufficient trip at Southwell earlier in the month. Lindoro arrives at the top of his game and is a more straightforward selection, proven both on turf and over seven furlongs.

15:20 - All bar Chookie Hamilton and The Oil Magnate have a question to answer on grounds of fitness in the twelve-furlong handicap. Whatever the concerns, it's difficult not to have Kiama Bay on side as he's progressive and has the look of a deserving favourite twelve weeks on from an impressive success at Wolverhampton. Karen McLintock has had three winners from her last six runners over jumps, and whilst none of those were Mason Hindmarsh, he's still one to view positively this afternoon. It had looked as if he could progress well as a hurdler after making a winning start at Aintree in October, but his jumping let him down when pitched in deep at Cheltenham next time and he hasn't been seen since. He wasn't tried beyond a mile and a quarter on the Flat last term and, given the manner of that hurdles success, there's good reason to imagine he could do better for the step up to this trip.

15:50 - The three Dandy Nicholls-trained runners in the seven-furlong claimer rather complicate matters. Aged eleven, Fremen was having his first ever start on Fibresand at Southwell last time and that below-form effort is readily disregarded. Like that one, Royal Dignitary is prolific at this level, but he hasn't been seen since last August and, on balance, it's better to look elsewhere. Thrust Control isn't the most consistent, but he won at Southwell earlier in the month and has the services of Silvestre de Sousa to boost his chance. Apache Ridge's limitations are firmly established, but this is his level and he'll be much more at home back in plating company having been below form in a handicap at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago.

16:20 - It's time to husband lines, and having swerved Dandy Nicholls in the previous race, we're going in with him in the six-furlong maiden. Sinadinou's juvenile form looks comfortably the best on show, and his sub-par reappearance can easily be attributed to the Fibresand.

16:50 - Getting to the final leg will represent a success in itself, and things don't get much easier once one is there. Madamlily hasn't won since her two-year-old days, but she ran well over this course and distance when last seen on the Flat in October, and after one encouraging outing over hurdles, she returns to the level in what looks a good spot. Danceintothelight was rather more fully campaigned as a juvenile hurdler, winning two of four completed starts, and with fitness assured and conditions fine, he looks one to keep on side. Eijaaz is capable on his day and is respected, but the doubts are sufficient to prevent him from making the placepot slip; it may just be worth chucking a few quid at him to win, though.


Selections:

14:20: 8,9
14:50: 7,13,14
15:20: 6,9
15:50: 3,8
16:20: 8
16:50: 4,7

48 lines


With the imminent Flat season looming large over this jumps reporter, there really is no danger of me taking on either Lingfield or Southwell. Small fields abound at Taunton, so let's stake low and hope for a 'payer'......

This week sees the return of Flat turf racing at Catterick on Wednesday, but until then we'll have to settle with today's mediocre card at Wolverhampton....

With the small fields at Wincanton, there's little option but to have a crack at Hexham for this afternoon's placepot...


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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Ministar at a massive price

Timeform Radio Tip RSS / Jamie Lynch / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will you back Jamie's bets?

Will you back Jamie's bets?

"There’s a strong case for Deauville Post to be trading at odds-on in a race in which the rest all have big question marks over them."

Jamie Lynch selects a pair of promising Wednesday afternoon bets, including a lively outsider a big odds...

It was around this time last year that Deauville Post finished second in a maiden at Newmarket. The winner, Desert Myth, was Timeform rated 112 by the end of the season, while the third Awsaal won his next two starts and fourth-home Theology went on to finish second in the Queen's Vase.

On that form, Deauvile Post will win today's low-key handicap at Lingfield at 16:40 by half the track. He lost his way in the summer, albeit in good races, but bounced back on his final 2010 start by finishing second in a handicap at Kempton, proving his worth on polytrack. Significantly kept in training by Richard Hannon, Deauville Post could and should be a class apart from the moderate opposition he faces today, and though short on the face of it at [2.6], there's a strong case for him to be trading at odds-on in a race in which the rest all have big question marks over them.

The 16:00 at Lingfield is crying out for a bet, considering that non-winners Tuscan King and Jonnie Skull are at the top of the market. An outsider worth throwing a few quid at is Pippbrook Ministar, who has far fewer miles on the clock than the rest and is well handicapped on the form she was showing at this track a year ago. A short break and first-time cheekpieces are other reasons for anticipating some sort of revival from Pippbrook Ministar today, and odds of around [25.0] are just too tempting to let go.

Recommended Bets:
Back Pippbrook Ministar @ [25.0] in the 16:00 @ Lingfield
Back Deauville Post @ [2.54] in the 16:30 @ Lingfield

David Johnson has just the one bet for us this afternoon but it looks a good one......

Timeform Radio pundit goes to Towcester for his best bets...

We'd be lying if we said it was a great day's racing ahead of us but that shouldn't stop us from making some money from today's action. David Cleary gives us his best bets....


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March 30, 2011

Wheels, Pain and Making it Rain

Pud's Poker Progress RSS / Matthew Pitt / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

130 Pud's Poker Progress

Like many people in Britain I have struggled to find a dentist that will take NHS patients onto their books. Again, like many people in Britain I point-blank refuse to pay some jumped up 25-year old graduate tons of cash just to look in my gob and patronise me about my dental hygiene when an NHS dentist will do it for a quarter of the price.

With that in mind it should be quite clear why I've only been to the dentist three times in 12 years, the first time to have a manky tooth removed at a private dentist (he wanted £400 to repair or £40 to extract it) and the second time after finding an NHS dentist at the start of March and the third time yesterday. Amazingly I only needed three fillings and the horrible sounding de-scaling of the plaque build up. Sexy.

The dentist gave me a couple of injections, which were uncomfortable rather than painful, then set to work de-scaling. This hurt like crazy and when I rinsed my mouth out it was basically all blood though today my mouth feel uber fresh so it was definitely worth it. She only did two of the required three fillings because she said they don't like to numb all of your mouth at once as you not only can't eat or drink but you can also swallow your tongue. So she set to work on the top-right filling and all was fine but when she came to do the bottom-right one the numbing agent didn't work!

I mean it took the edge off but Jesus Christ it hurt, like nothing I have ever felt. After moving out of the way like I was having a seizure she asked "can you feel that?" Of course I could feel it dickhead, why do you think I was body popping down your chair? She gave me another injection and said that should sort it. She was wrong. I could still feel it and she informed me I would not get any number! I just told he to get on with it and she said she'd be as quick as she could be. Five minutes later, which felt like an hour, she was done and said "well done" like I was six. Anyway, I have to go back at the start of May for the left filling doing, hopefully she'll buy some better drugs for me.

Straight after the dentist I had to go to the bank because I needed to draw some money out to pay for a car I have just put a deposit down on. I managed to get £670 out and headed back home to do something I've always wanted to do but for one reason or another never had. I wanted to "make it rain" where you throw bundles of cash into the air and watch them rain down. So armed with a load of notes I did this in the living room and it was rather disappointing to say the least so I headed upstairs to stick it in a draw. One last count revealed there was only £600 there. In a panic I phoned the bank and asked them to see if the ATM had short-changed me and they agreed to start an investigation.

About half hour later I was playing with the youngest Pudding in the living room and he pointed to the ceiling and said something about bears. I thought he was just being daft but when I looked up towards the ceiling I saw a number of shadows in the "big light's" lampshade! On closer examination these shadows turned out to be seven £10 notes! Oops! I phoned the bank back and told them of my sad attempt to make it rain and they had a giggle and said they were happy I'd found my money! Bet they think, correctly, that I am a right loser. Oh well. The car isn't anything special, it;s a diesel Citroen Saxo which should mean that we save more than £150 a month just on fuel and car tax, and cutting down our monthly outgoings is a priority at the moment. I'm not overly thrilled about downsizing as I like my Vectra but it's just so thirsty on fuel and costs a bomb to maintain so it needs to go.

I'll update my poker progress, or severe lack of it, in another post because I need to dash now to go pick up the aforementioned motor. Until next time, thanks for reading and best of luck at the tables!

Sign up for a free Betfair Poker account and you will be able to choose your own sign-up bonus of between $50 and $2,500 and you too could make it rain!

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Follow The Money: Smart Choice?

Follow the Money RSS / Follow The Money / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Choice Of Remark storm to victory at Lingfield?

Will Choice Of Remark storm to victory at Lingfield?

"The market support for Choice Of Remark is of huge significance."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Lingfield, Catterick and Hereford.


In Lingfield's Five Furlong Maiden Stakes for two-year-olds at 14:30, Choice Of Remark is now trading at [3.45] from [5.10]. David Evans is known for getting his two-year-olds ready early in the season and this horse looks like another likely type on pedigree. The market support is of huge significance for a race like this.

Chicago Alley has been showing little support today and is out to [3.95] from [2.98] in the 14:40 at Hereford. Tony Carroll's mare is returning from a 10 month break. She was a maiden over hurdles before showing much better form when switched to fences. She won three of her last four races in that sphere but starts out again this season over hurdles so it would seem more of a warm-up race today before going back over the larger obstacles.

Finally we go to Catterick for the start of the turf flat season and Another Wise Kid has been showing some nice support into [6.00] from [11.00] in the 16:20 Maiden Stakes. Paul Midgley's gelding showed some promise when finishing third on his last outing as a two-year-old and the improvement he showed through all four of his races suggests there is more improvement to come. The market support backs this up.


Recommended Bets
Back Choice Of Remark @ [3.45] Lingfield 14:30
Lay Chicago Alley @ [3.95] Hereford 14:40
Back Another Wise Kid @ [6.00] Catterick 16:20

THe FTM boys tell us which two are worth backing which one should be laid....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Plumpton, Wolverhampton and Towcester...

THE FTM boys give us their usual two backs and one lay....


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Miami Masters Tips: America's next top tennis player?

Events RSS / Ben Caudell / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ben's backing Mardy Fish to be the American number one

Ben's backing Mardy Fish to be the American number one

"If Fish wins today, not only would he reach the semi-finals of this event for the first time, he would also become the top ranked American for the first time in his career."

He'll have home support on his side and a strong record against top ten players, but can Mardy Fish overcome David Ferrer in what is likely to be a long match?

David Ferrer (ESP) v Mardy Fish (US)

After surprising first round losses for both these players at Indian Wells a fortnight ago, Miami has proved to be a different kettle of 'fish'. With the Spaniard and American firing on all cylinders and with both players yet to drop a single set, we can look forward to a real corker of a match that looks evenly balanced on paper but not in the match odds where Fish can be backed at [2.80].

The head-to-head record reads three wins apiece with only two of the six matches having been won in straight sets. However, it's been nearly four years since these two stalwarts last competed against each other, so history shouldn't have a significant baring on how this quarter-final pans out.

What is important, though, is the fact that Fish is coming into a purple patch of form at the right time. Having completed notable wins over former top ten player Richard Gasquet 6-4 6-3 and former US Open Champion Juan Martin Del Potro, the American has another incentive that will give him an extra adrenaline boost. If Fish wins today, not only would he reach the semi-finals of this event for the first time, he would also become the top ranked American for the first time in his career.

Fish has a great record against top ten players and he recorded a positive 5-3 stat in 2010. He's appearing in his third ATP World Tour quarter-final or better this year and his fourth ATP World Tour Masters quarter-final. An important fact to note is that from his last three appearances at this stage of a Master series event Mardy has gone on to reach the final.

There will be a lot of home support cheering Fish on. This match will probably go all the way but my money is going on the soon to be top American.

Recommended Bets
Back Mardy Fish @ [2.8] to win match
Back three sets @ [2.44]

It's an all-Serb clash in Miami today and it's hard to see the prohibitively short-priced Novak Djojovic losing this one to Viktor Troicki. We must therefore go in search of alternative betting options, says Ben Caudell....

Rising Ukrainian can edge ahead of inconsistent Frenchman, says Ben Caudell...

Former US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro is up against Robin Soderling in the glamour tie of the third round in Miami and Ben Caudell thinks the smart money is on the Swede...


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India are Cricket World Cup favourites after dramatic win

Sri Lanka RSS / Maxliu / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Tendulkar v Murali is the battle to relish in the World Cup Final

Tendulkar v Murali is the battle to relish in the World Cup Final

"India scored 260, a decent total on a tough pitch, and Pakistan always looked unlikely to reach that target."

Pakistan put up brave chase in thrilling semi-final but it's the Little Master and co. who will take on Sri Lanka in the final...

The match of the century - that's what today's Cricket World Cup semi-final between India and Pakistan was billed as and in the end it was the hosts who prevailed.

India now trade as [1.66] favourites to win the tournament when they meet Sri Lanka [2.48] on Saturday.

MS Dhoni's men were backed at [2.28] midway through the contest after they struggled to build a on strong start. Sachin Tendulkar was their star man with a score of 85 but it could have been different if Pakistan had been sharper in the field.

India scored 260, a decent total on a tough pitch, and Pakistan always looked unlikely to reach that target. Misbah-Ul-Haq was their best batsman with 56 but they were all out for 231, 29 runs short.

The result means that we now have the mouthwatering prospect of seeing Sachin Tendulkar compete against Muttiah Muralitharan in what will undoubtedly be a terrific World Cup final this Saturday.

Let us know what you thought the semi-finals and who you think will win the final below...


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Evening Market Movers: Wednesday March 30

Market Movers RSS / Editor / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

This evening's market movers from Wolverhampton...

17:30
Kylladdie 3.90 in to 3.10
Desert Strike 6.60 out to 8.40

18:00
Aquasulis 2.30 out to 4.70
Dijarvo 9.0 in to 5.20

19:00
Palm Pilot 4.90 in to 4.0

19:30
Stargazing 4.90 in to 3.20
Dazakhee 20.0 in to 14.50
Catching Zeds 6.60 out to 16.0
Twisted 16.50 in to 5.0

20:00
Smart George 4.30 in to 3.50

20:30
Spinning Bailiwick 4.50 in to 3.50

This afternoon's market movers from Catterick, Hereford and Lingfield....

All the latest price movements on Betfair's racing markets....

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Plumpton, Towcester and Wolverhampton...


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Red Rum's five Grand National appearances

Features RSS / Dan Fitch / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

The legend of Red Rum lives on at Aintree.

The legend of Red Rum lives on at Aintree.

Dan Fitch takes a look at Red Rum's five Grand National appearances which saw the horse win the race on three occasions.

When you think of the World Cup, images of Pele and Maradona come to mind. Wimbledon evokes memories of McEnroe, while the Masters at Augusta belongs to Jack Nicklaus.

Some sporting greats and certain events will be forever entwined and when it comes to the Grand National, no horse is more synonymous with the race than Red Rum.

Rummie ran in five Grand Nationals, winning it three times and coming second twice. Join us as we look back at Red Rum's five Grand National appearances.

Red Rum entered the Grand National for the first time in 1973 and though he won the race, it was the second-placed Crisp who had everyone talking the next day.

Crisp was an Australian horse and started the 1973 National as the 9-1 joint favourite. This tag looked justified when Crisp was some 20 lengths ahead halfway through the race, but gradually Red Rum managed to gain ground and just managed to pip the tiring Crisp on the line.

Having carried some 24lbs more than Red Rum, Crisp's performance is considered to be one of the greatest of any second-placed runner at the National and it took a course record from Ginger McCain's horse to beat him.

Red Rum would prove that his first National win wasn't a fluke, when he became the first horse to win the race in successive years since Reynoldstown in 1936.

Starting as the 11-1 third favourite, Red Rum was racing off a mark two stone heavier than in 1973. Rummie's second win secured a love affair with the general public and just three weeks later, Red Rum was back in the headlines as he won the Scottish Grand National.

Having won the race in the proceeding two years, the big question in 1975 was whether Red Rum could win a third successive Grand National.

Rummie could have barely come closer to achieving just that and was leading the race at the last fence, only to be overtaken by the two-time Gold Cup winner L'Escargot.

The year of 1976 saw Red Rum make another valiant attempt to win a third Grand National, only to finish second again.

This time it was Rag Trade who got the better of him. Red Rum never gave up and was closing on the back straight, but just couldn't make up enough ground. As is often the way with the British public, these near misses would only strengthen their affection towards Rummie.

Red Rum finally won his third and final Grand National in 1977 as a 12-year old. Ginger McCain had planned Red Rum's whole season in preparation for the race and he wasn't let down on the day.

It was ultimately a fairly routine victory, as Red Rum took up the lead soon after Becher's and saw off a challenge from Churchtown Boy to romp home to a rapturous reception.

Red Rum was set to try for a fourth win in 1978, only to pull up a day before the race with a hairline fracture. The nation's favourite racehorse and the greatest Grand National winner of all time was forced into retirement. When he died 17 years later in 1995, Red Rum was buried at the winning post at Aintree.


Dan Fitch looks at the numbers which define the records and statistics of the Grand National....

The names of Arkle, Red Rum and Desert Orchid are the most legendary in the post-war history of steeplechasing. Three-times Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Arkle remains Timeform's highest-rated horse ever, whilst exhilerating front runner Desert Orchid drew a huge following due to a succession of brilliant big-race wins. However, neither of that illustrious pair could match the popularity of Red Rum, who remains the best-known horse ever to race in Britain....

Dan Fitch takes a look at the racehorse owners who were even more famous than their Grand National winning horses....


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Rickie Fowler

Player Profiles RSS / Paul Krishnamurty / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Player Profiles

Tiger Woods Phil Mickelson Lee Westwood Martin Kaymer Graeme McDowell Nick Watney Paul Casey Luke Donald Rory McIlroy Dustin Johnson Matt Kuchar Bubba Watson Jim Furyk Padraig Harrington Hunter Mahan Steve Stricker Ernie Els Retief Goosen Geoff Ogilvy Vijay Singh Anthony Kim Alvaro Quiros Ian Poulter Justin Rose Sergio Garcia Adam Scott Rickie Fowler KJ Choi Martin Laird Francesco Molinari Woefully under-priced maybe, but never under-dressed - it's Rickie Fowler

Woefully under-priced maybe, but never under-dressed - it's Rickie Fowler

Last five Masters results: -/-/-/-/-
Current Masters odds: [65.0]

With his flamboyant style and superb iron play, Fowler is another emerging American with more than a passing resemblance to Mickelson. However, while nobody doubts his enormous potential, the 2010 'Rookie of the Year' is becoming rather frustrating to follow. Despite challenging on numerous occasions, he's yet to win a title and as such is woefully under-priced on his Masters debut, even if he'll probably win a Green Jacket eventually.

Last five Masters results: 30/-/-/-/- Current Masters odds: [80.0] Europe's 'Mr Consistency', with 17 top-ten finishes in the last 18 months, probably remains the better player of the two Molinari brothers, despite an inferior conversion ratio. Francesco's temperament was deservedly...

Last five Masters results: -/-/-/-/- Current Masters odds: [60.0] Scotland's new golfing hero surged into Masters contention with victory at Bay Hill, doubtless to the delight of punters who've backed him at up to [280.0] for Augusta. Perhaps thanks to...

Last five Masters results: 4/mc/41/27/mc Current Masters odds: [70.0] Choi has twice put up a superb final day challenge at the Masters, including when fourth last year. Those memories are bound to make the Korean a popular outside pick, especially...


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Justin Rose

Player Profiles RSS / Paul Krishnamurty / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Player Profiles

Tiger Woods Phil Mickelson Lee Westwood Martin Kaymer Graeme McDowell Nick Watney Paul Casey Luke Donald Rory McIlroy Dustin Johnson Matt Kuchar Bubba Watson Jim Furyk Padraig Harrington Hunter Mahan Steve Stricker Ernie Els Retief Goosen Geoff Ogilvy Vijay Singh Anthony Kim Alvaro Quiros Ian Poulter Justin Rose Sergio Garcia Adam Scott Rickie Fowler KJ Choi Martin Laird Francesco Molinari It's simple, really. Justin Rose has a lot in his favour ahead of Augusta 2011

It's simple, really. Justin Rose has a lot in his favour ahead of Augusta 2011

Last five Masters results: -/20/36/5/-
Current Masters odds: [38.0]

Though his profile beyond the States has slightly dipped since winning the 2007 Order of Merit, Rose remains one of Europe's likeliest candidates for the Masters. He's hit plenty of excellent rounds here, particularly when contending throughout for fifth place in 2007. Two victories in 2010 confirm he isn't scared of winning in the States, and he looks in excellent form right now, registering consecutive top-tens at Copperhead and Bay Hill.

Last five Masters results: 30/-/-/-/- Current Masters odds: [80.0] Europe's 'Mr Consistency', with 17 top-ten finishes in the last 18 months, probably remains the better player of the two Molinari brothers, despite an inferior conversion ratio. Francesco's temperament was deservedly...

Last five Masters results: -/-/-/-/- Current Masters odds: [60.0] Scotland's new golfing hero surged into Masters contention with victory at Bay Hill, doubtless to the delight of punters who've backed him at up to [280.0] for Augusta. Perhaps thanks to...

Last five Masters results: 4/mc/41/27/mc Current Masters odds: [70.0] Choi has twice put up a superb final day challenge at the Masters, including when fourth last year. Those memories are bound to make the Korean a popular outside pick, especially...

Last five Masters results: -/-/-/-/- Current Masters odds: [65.0] With his flamboyant style and superb iron play, Fowler is another emerging American with more than a passing resemblance to Mickelson. However, while nobody doubts his enormous potential, the 2010 'Rookie...


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Ian Poulter

Player Profiles RSS / Paul Krishnamurty / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Player Profiles

Tiger Woods Phil Mickelson Lee Westwood Martin Kaymer Graeme McDowell Nick Watney Paul Casey Luke Donald Rory McIlroy Dustin Johnson Matt Kuchar Bubba Watson Jim Furyk Padraig Harrington Hunter Mahan Steve Stricker Ernie Els Retief Goosen Geoff Ogilvy Vijay Singh Anthony Kim Alvaro Quiros Ian Poulter Justin Rose Sergio Garcia Adam Scott Rickie Fowler KJ Choi Martin Laird Francesco Molinari He's got the bottle, but will lack of distance hurt Poulter when it counts most?

He's got the bottle, but will lack of distance hurt Poulter when it counts most?

Last five Masters results: 10/20/25/13/-
Current Masters odds: [80.0]

Poulter seems to improve slightly with each season, so the fact he's yet to seriously challenge in the Masters should not completely discount his chances. Four straight top-25s show he can play the course, although he is another whose relative lack of driving distance is a handicap here. One thing we can at least be confident of however, is that this fierce competitor won't buckle in contention should the opportunity arrive.

Last five Masters results: 30/-/-/-/- Current Masters odds: [80.0] Europe's 'Mr Consistency', with 17 top-ten finishes in the last 18 months, probably remains the better player of the two Molinari brothers, despite an inferior conversion ratio. Francesco's temperament was deservedly...

Last five Masters results: -/-/-/-/- Current Masters odds: [60.0] Scotland's new golfing hero surged into Masters contention with victory at Bay Hill, doubtless to the delight of punters who've backed him at up to [280.0] for Augusta. Perhaps thanks to...

Last five Masters results: 4/mc/41/27/mc Current Masters odds: [70.0] Choi has twice put up a superb final day challenge at the Masters, including when fourth last year. Those memories are bound to make the Korean a popular outside pick, especially...

Last five Masters results: -/-/-/-/- Current Masters odds: [65.0] With his flamboyant style and superb iron play, Fowler is another emerging American with more than a passing resemblance to Mickelson. However, while nobody doubts his enormous potential, the 2010 'Rookie...


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Trophee Hassan II Betting: Spanish trio the ones to follow

Golf Bets RSS / Mike Norman / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Alvaro Velasco is back on the main tour after topping last season’s Challenge Tour money list

Alvaro Velasco is back on the main tour after topping last season’s Challenge Tour money list

"Incredibly, Carlos Del Moral was six over par after just 11 holes on Thursday, but he then played the next 61 holes in exactly the same number as eventual winner Paul Lawrie."

It's another low key affair on the European Tour this week so Mike Norman is pinning his hopes on a trio of Spanish players, two of which have been very consistent in 2011.


Throughout this season Mike will give one selection in each of the Winner, Top Five Finish and Top Ten Finish markets every week a European Tour event is being played.


The Gulf Swing apart, it's been pretty dire stuff on the European Tour so far this year, and with the US Masters just around the corner I'm afraid we've got another low-quality field at this week's Trophee Hassan II.

Welshman Rhys Davies was a bit of a 'find' in 2010 and he's back in Morocco to defend this week, albeit at a completely different venue to where he secured his maiden Tour victory. His form tailed-off somewhat once he was being touted as a candidate for Colin Montgomerie's Ryder Cup team but a reproduction of anything he showed last spring will see him go well at odds of [55.0].

Davies was of course plying his trade on the Challenge Tour the season before last, and it's another Challenge Tour graduate - and two of his Spanish compatriots - that make up my trio of selections this week.


Winner

Rafael Cabrera-Bello continued him impressive run of figures at last week's Open de Andalucia; his 11th place finish was his sixth consecutive top-30 finish on the European Tour. I confess to knowing very little about how the Golf du Palais Royal (it's been 12 years since the Moroccan Open was played here) and Golf de L'Ocean courses will play during the next four days, but the indications are that with wide fairways on both courses, and therefore many greens to be hit in regulation, then someone who can putt well will stand a great chance of winning. Cabrera-Bello ranks fifth in Putts per GIR on the Tour this season which is highly encouraging.

From the footage that I saw of this emerging Spaniard last week he was regularly leaving his approach shots just marginally outside decent birdie range, so it was testament to his ability and consistency that he climbed the leaderboard as the week progressed. If he can dial in his approach shots just a few feet closer this week then the [24.0] currently available in the Winner market could look very big come Sunday afternoon.


Top Five Finish

One player who may well break through on the European Tour this season is that Challenge Tour graduate I referred too earlier - Alvaro Velasco. True, Velasco has played on the main Tour previously - mainly in 2008 and 2009 where he recorded just six top-10 finishes in 55 events - but the relegation to golf's second tier did him no harm at all last season. The 29-year-old recorded six top-10 finishes from just 16 events; his two victories and one second place finish enabling him to finish top of the Challenge Tour money list.

Velasco has finished in the money in seven of the eight events he has played this season, with his best result coming at the prestigious Dubai Desert Classic where he finished in a highly-credible tie for fourth place. A reproduction of that form will give us a great run for our money at odds of [15.0] in this market.


Top Ten Finish

We won't get rich backing Carlos Del Moral at [6.0] but he represents an extremely solid selection. Like Cabrera-Bello he has been very consistent this season, making the cut in all six events he's played and recording four top-25 finishes (including a fifth place finish when he was a selection two weeks ago). And his tie for 36th place last week was far better than it suggests. Incredibly, Del Moral was six over par after just 11 holes on Thursday, but he then played the next 61 holes in exactly the same number as eventual winner Paul Lawrie. He also made a staggering 19 birdies in those 61 holes, more than any other player in the whole field.


Recommended Bets

Back Rafael Cabrera-Bello at [24.0] in Winner market
Back Alvaro Velasco at [15.0] in Top Five Finish market
Back Carlos Del Moral at [6.0] in Top Ten Finish market


Total pts bet this season (one pt bet per selection): 27
Total pts returned: 10.75
2011 European Tour season Profit/Loss: -16.25

The European Tour visits Spain this week for a tournament hosted by loveable veteran Miguel Angel Jimenez, but Mike Norman finds reasons to oppose both Jimenez and his classy countryman Alvaro Quiros....

There's a new venue for the European Tour this week but Mike Norman is not put off by having no course form to go on, he's been studying hard he tells us....

There are some marquee groups teeing off at Doral tomorrow but there's value to be found right through the card on day one of the latest WGC event....


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Sergio Garcia

Player Profiles RSS / Paul Krishnamurty / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Player Profiles

Tiger Woods Phil Mickelson Lee Westwood Martin Kaymer Graeme McDowell Nick Watney Paul Casey Luke Donald Rory McIlroy Dustin Johnson Matt Kuchar Bubba Watson Jim Furyk Padraig Harrington Hunter Mahan Steve Stricker Ernie Els Retief Goosen Geoff Ogilvy Vijay Singh Anthony Kim Alvaro Quiros Ian Poulter Justin Rose Sergio Garcia Adam Scott Rickie Fowler KJ Choi Martin Laird Francesco Molinari Still a 'Big Gun'? The last few years suggest not

Still a 'Big Gun'? The last few years suggest not

Last five Masters results: 45/38/mc/mc/46
Current Masters odds: [80.0]

Despite an increasing lack of supporting evidence, Garcia is still considered to be one of the game's 'big-guns', and will attract support accordingly. In fairness, five top-30 efforts so far this year are an improvement on a disastrous 2010, but he remains one to oppose in contention. Garcia's troubles with the putter have become painful to watch, and go a long way towards explaining a failure to register a top-30 at Augusta since 2004.

Last five Masters results: 30/-/-/-/- Current Masters odds: [80.0] Europe's 'Mr Consistency', with 17 top-ten finishes in the last 18 months, probably remains the better player of the two Molinari brothers, despite an inferior conversion ratio. Francesco's temperament was deservedly...

Last five Masters results: -/-/-/-/- Current Masters odds: [60.0] Scotland's new golfing hero surged into Masters contention with victory at Bay Hill, doubtless to the delight of punters who've backed him at up to [280.0] for Augusta. Perhaps thanks to...

Last five Masters results: 4/mc/41/27/mc Current Masters odds: [70.0] Choi has twice put up a superb final day challenge at the Masters, including when fourth last year. Those memories are bound to make the Korean a popular outside pick, especially...

Last five Masters results: -/-/-/-/- Current Masters odds: [65.0] With his flamboyant style and superb iron play, Fowler is another emerging American with more than a passing resemblance to Mickelson. However, while nobody doubts his enormous potential, the 2010 'Rookie...


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