NFL Draft Results: Quarter-Back heavy picks

NFL / Andy Richmond / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Prince Amukamara moved to the New York Giants

"Those surprises at the top end of the draft created some excellent value lower down with Detroit (Nick Fairley), Minnesota (Christian Ponder), St Louis Rams (Robert Quinn) and the New York Giants (Prince Amukamara) all far better players than their position in round one of the draft would suggest."

Cam Newton ended up at the Carolina Panthers as expected but there a few other surprises elsewhere. Andy Richmond gives us the lowdown on Thursday night's action.

With so much of the "action" in the NFL of late taking place in the law courts (as the owners and players' labour dispute rumbles on) it was edifying to see some events which may affect the 2011 NFL season on the pitch take place on Thursday night as the 2011 NFL Draft got underway.

As things stand it's only the end of Round One and therefore hard to judge the overall quality but in some ways the draft mirrored last season and got a little crazy at times. The offence-driven NFL saw the draft become quarterback heavy, with four going in the first 12 picks.

There were no surprises in the first three picks - the much hyped or vaunted Cam Newton went to the Carolina Panthers to address their quarterback problems although on a side which went 2-14 last season, he'll need to live up to his billing to get them anywhere near the play-offs. Don't get me wrong on Newton, he is a huge raw talent but that's the key word - raw - and he will have to learn quickly in the NFL. And that's something which I'm not sure he can do. Time is the one thing that he doesn't have to learn how to become an NFL quarterback and the skills that go with it is a huge ask on one year's college experience.

Three other signal callers were taken in the first round to equal the four taken in the 2004 draft, although it remains to be seen whether these four measure up to the class of '04 (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and J.P Losman). The surprising pick amongst this bunch was Jake Locker going to the Titans especially with two (in my opinion) better options in Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert available. Those two found homes in Minnesota and Jacksonville respectively and completed the quarterback stampede in the first round.

Picks two and three were the property of Denver and Buffalo - they both had defensive problems , amongst others, to fix. Denver took Von Miller to address their pass rush issues but surely they would have been better to take Marcell Dareus who the Bulls seized upon gratefully. Dareus will really help with their run defence which was ranked 32nd in the NFL last season. The Broncos may have got the worst end of this deal.

For my money the best pick in the top five came at number five where Cardinals drafted cornerback Patrick Peterson. Combine him with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Arizona have the ultimate coverage package.

Beyond that top five there were some very strange decisions that came out of the draft "war rooms" - in fact they flew in the face of most of the mock drafts that I had seen. Possibly the strangest and the riskiest was the Atlanta Falcons trading up to get wide receiver Julio Jones, that cost them a package of five future draft picks, including their first round-pick in 2012. It gives then two go-to receivers but leaves then still weak defensively and that's where they were expected to strengthen in the draft - whilst not season defining, it is a brave pick.

Those surprises at the top end of the draft created some excellent value lower down with Detroit (Nick Fairley), Minnesota (Christian Ponder), St Louis Rams (Robert Quinn) and the New York Giants (Prince Amukamara) all far better players than their position in round one of the draft would suggest.

Two notable absences from Round One were Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers and Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett; both will surely be snapped up early on in the next round. Injury and attitude doubts respectively holding them back on this occasion.

The strength and success of the draft will ultimately be defined by results during the 2011 season as long as the current dispute is solved - my initial feelings are that those who had the earlier picks will need a lot more than these singular selections to turn their seasons around and those with a solid base from last season are more likely to maintain their form.

This year's NFL Draft is smothered in confusion. The combination of the ongoing labour dispute between owners and players and the lack of a clear-cut candidate to be top pick has left the market wide open. Let's try and work...

There are a plethora of side markets for Sunday's big game - so here are a plethora of side bets for Sunday's big game...

BB's American Football expert Andy Richmond analyses the big one and predicts a defensive classic...

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IPL Betting: Kochi Tuskers Kerala v Delhi Daredevils

Indian Premier League - IPL / Richard O’Hagan / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mahela Jayawardene needs to ensure his Kochi side become more consistent

"This game is going to turn on whichever team recovers faster from their terrible midweek game. For Kochi the big problem is largely one of consistency."

A match between two of the bottom three sides might not look very attractive, but with both sides only a couple of wins away from the playoff places, there is plenty of value to be had...if you know where to look.

Kochi

No-one expected the two new teams to find it easy in their first IPL season. For Kochi it has been a truly Jekyll and Hyde experience, with bad losses alternating with convincing victories. In Wednesday's capitulation to Deccan they managed to hold their opponents to a score of 129-7 and still lose. They have to hope that will be the last of the weak batting performances.

Delhi

That Delhi occupy bottom spot in the entire IPL is a mystery to everyone. No side which contains the world's most feared one day batsman in Virender Sehwag should struggle, and two wins out of seven simply isn't enough for a franchise used to success.

Match Odds

This game is going to turn on whichever team recovers faster from their terrible midweek game. For Kochi the big problem is largely one of consistency. Delhi, though, seem to have no idea what their best team is, with Morne Morkel and Agit Agarkar particular looking like weak links. Without any change on Delhi's part, expect Kochi to win comfortably at odds of 2.14.

Kochi Opening Partnership odds

The game against Deccan was the first time that the opening partnership of Brendon McCullum and Mahela Jayawardene has failed. Prior to this, they had put on over 30 every time. Given the bowling problems that Delhi have had, they appear good value to make at least 40 runs at a price of [2.4]

Best Bet

Kochi Tuskers Kerala to win at 2.14

With Kolkata second in the table, and Punjab sixth (but having played up to three games less than any other side) this is a fascinating match-up between two teams who should be in play-off contention at the end of the...

Kolkata captain Gautam Gambhir has something to prove against the Delhi Daredevils, warns Tobias Gourlay...

The tournament favourites are looking solid in their search for a maiden IPL title....

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Black Friday: Prepared by PLO

Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

It has been two weeks since I've played a hand of online poker for real money. I did sit down for a couple of play money sessions here and there over the last few days. For example, the other night I managed to be the bubble boy in a 100-plus player multi-table tourney, finishing 13th when the top 12 spots paid.

I didn't cash, but then I suppose even if I had won I wouldn't have cashed. (Insert frowny face.)

As an American whose only online poker accounts were on sites targeted by the "Black Friday" indictments and civil complaint unsealed on April 15, I am presently having to do without online poker. I have begun to explore some of the other, still available sites and will perhaps before too long make the not-insignificant effort to get some funds into an account and get back into the game. But for now, like a player who is "card dead" and enduring a sequence of unplayable hands, I am having to be patient.

The game I miss the most is short-handed, pot-limit Omaha, a game that even if I lived in close proximity to live poker (I don't), I probably would not be able to find that easily, either. Over the last couple of years, I'd probably spent at least 80% of my time at the online tables playing 6-max. PLO, a game I've found much more engaging than no-limit hold'em.

While I remain a "recreational" player -- perhaps more serious than most, though hardly a threat to move up to professional status -- I did learn a little something about PLO strategy while playing those thousands of hands online. Reading Jeff Hwang's books on PLO (reviewed here) helped a lot, too.

I realized this week how some of the lessons I'd learned from PLO could be said to have application to "Black Friday" and its aftermath, at least in terms of being an online poker player in the U.S. and having to deal with the sudden unavailability of my favorite sites. Here are three ways you might say PLO has helped prepare me to deal with the current state of affairs.

Learning to Read

When it comes to evaluating starting hands, new PLO players generally have a much steeper learning curve than do those playing their first hands of hold'em. Sure, the NLHE newbie may not realize at first how suited connectors can become big profit-makers if played effectively, but for the most part it isn't that difficult to recognize big pairs and Broadway cards make for good starters in hold'em.

By contrast, evaluating starting hands in PLO is a more complicated matter. Here, too, some of the best ones -- like A-A-J-T double-suited -- might be obvious even to new players. But it usually takes novices a while to learn that starting with a couple of aces isn't always the cat's pajamas in PLO. Or that run-down hands like J-T-9-8 have great potential, too, especially when suited/double-suited or played from a positional advantage.

Starting with four cards means you have six different two-card combinations to choose from to make a hand -- as do all of your opponents. And since it is often the case that multiple players (i.e., more than two) see flops in PLO, the range of possibilities following a flop is much wider in PLO than in NLHE, making it more challenging to "read" the significance of players' subsequent actions.

"Black Friday" took many by surprise, but now we find ourselves looking back at all of the potential signs perhaps indicating the Department of Justice was about to suddenly "raise the pot" (so to speak) and force the largest online sites in the U.S. to "fold."

The arrest of payment processor Daniel Tzvetkoff last spring, the sudden uptick in legislative machinations on both state and federal levels to regulate online poker, and the announcements of those partnerships between the sites and land-based casinos all now appear as related bits information. Put together, they seem now both to suggest something about the strength of the DOJ's hand and that (from the feds' perspective) "slow playing" was no longer an option.

But like a PLO hand, it was a complicated situation, hard for many to "read" and understand definitively.

Dealing with Swings

For various reasons, PLO tends to be a more "swingy" game than other varieties of poker, with a higher "variance" that often translates into sudden changes to one's stack size, overall bankroll, and/or peace of mind. For some, this aspect of PLO makes it a more fun game to play, more likely to get the adrenaline pumping than saving an extra bet in a fixed-limit game or lots of folding in NLHE might.

Just as reading hands and situations in PLO can provide a special intellectual challenge, handling those head-spinning highs and precipitous plummets can present a psychological challenge to players, too. Most frustrating for me would be sessions that would begin with a hundred well-managed hands during which I'd slowly but satisfyingly chip up to improve my stack by a buy-in or more, only to be suddenly felted in one of those all-but-impossible-to-avoid coin-flip situations that will come up now and again in PLO.

When such misfortune occurred, I'd try to remember the flips I'd won -- or those hands when after getting it in as a huge dog I'd luckboxed my way into some undeserved success. I also developed other means by which to improve my perspective on big wins or losses and become less emotionally affected. And the more I played, the more I was able to "embrace the variance" (as Deuces Cracked instructor bellatrix recommends)

It should be obvious how this kind of mental training to handle abrupt changes in fortune comes in handy in the face of an event like "Black Friday." I'm one of many who have been affected in ways that go beyond the temporary lack of a game to play. But using my experience with PLO as a guide, I step back and recognize how rapidly things have changed in poker over the last several years.

"Black Friday" was certainly an especially big pot to lose, but if recent history is any indicator, there will be more big pots, I'm sure.

Thinking Ahead

As a "post-flop" game, PLO requires one to think beyond those initial preflop raises to prepare oneself time and again for multiple decisions on subsequent streets. As Jeff Hwang points out in Pot-Limit Omaha Poker: The Big Play Strategy, PLO "is very much an implied-odds game," especially when played deep-stacked. In other words (suggests Hwang), it is often best to keep in mind that in PLO, really, "every hand is a drawing hand -- including AA hands."

I know from my own experience with PLO that whenever I felt as though I was playing my "A-game" I was consistently doing a good job thinking beyond what was happening preflop to anticipate how I'd be responding to various community cards and opponents' actions after the flop. A stronger player or strategist could probably better articulate what I'm trying to say here, but there's a "rhythm" to PLO to which I sometimes felt especially attuned, and getting to that point often involved focusing more on potential developments than the current situation.

By the same token, I knew I was off my game whenever I fell into what might be called a "made-hand mentality" wherein I was too preoccupied with making (say) my flopped top set stand up than considering the larger picture -- i.e., one that included dealing with the consequences of the turn and the river!

Again, I'm going to try to apply this ability to look ahead when assessing the current situation faced by U.S. players. Some observers have already begun to describe how the events of the last two weeks may in fact prove beneficial in the long run when it comes to those ongoing efforts to license and regulate online poker in the U.S. While I'm too much of a cynic to be overly optimistic, I can appreciate the importance of thinking about the "big picture" and not getting too wrapped up in how lousy a hand we've just been dealt.

PLO is a complicated game. So, too, is the "game" surrounding the future of online poker in the U.S., a game made even more complex thanks to the many political, cultural, and economic forces affecting how it gets played. (Or not.)

The European Poker Tour is currently in Italy for the penultimate stop of Season 7 and some of poker's biggest names have taken to the felt at San Remo over the two official Day 1s....

We are now well and truly into our fourth week of our "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly" promotion and things are really hotting up all over the Master Leaderboard. It looks like everyone wants to get their hands...

Until yesterday Irish poker player Niall Smyth only had around $41,000 in live tournament winnings but this morning he will be grinning from ear to ear after beating Surinder Sunar heads up in the 2011 Irish Poker Open for a...

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Follow The Money: Flowing Cape to wrap it up

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Follow The Money says: Back Flowing Cape in the 15:15 at Leicester @ 5.6

"George Baker`s mount was not totally disgraced on that occasion and back down to a more suitable level could go close, if the drop back in trip works in his favour."

Two backs, one lay, it can only mean the Follow The Money column is here.

Today's Follow The Money come from the meetings at Leicester and Perth.

Starting at Leicester and a negative in the 14.10 maiden contest where Catalinas Diamond has been on the slide from [3.3] out to [3.9]. A decent 2 year old when trained by Brendan Duke last year, she ran creditably on all starts before finishing tailed off at Royal Ascot in July. The fact that she has not been seen out since, is up in trip and has now changed stables, has clearly sent alarm bells ringing amongst backers.

Our next mover is at Perth in their opening maiden hurdle at 14.20 where the The Cockney Mackem has been very solid at the top of the market moving in from an early [2.98] to [2.0]. This 5 year old was a bumper winner on debut before three placed efforts over hurdles. His trainer Nigel Twiston - Davies has a good record at this meeting and although his form is nothing special, The Cockney Mackem does not appear to have much to beat today.

Back to Leicester for our final mover where there has been decent support in the 15.15 race for Flowing Cape, in from [10.5] in to [5.6]. A model of consistency last season, including when running off a higher mark on the all weather, this one was out of his depth in a hot listed contest on reappearance at Leicester. George Baker`s mount was not totally disgraced on that occasion and back down to a more suitable level could go close, if the drop back in trip works in his favour.

Recommended Bets:

Lay Catalinas Diamond @ [3.9] Leicester 14.10
Back The Cockney Mackem @ [2.00] Perth 14.20
Back Flowing Cape @ [5.6] Leicester 15.15

Today's Follow The Money come from the meetings at Perth, Hereford and Bath....

Today's Follow The Money movers all come from the meeting at Pontefract....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Lingfield and Yarmouth....

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Serie A Betting: Don't underestimate teams with little to play for

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Palermo boss Delio Rossi

"Parma may have improved lately, but they’re still not as good a side as Palermo, and I’ll certainly be laying Parma at what is a ridiculously short price."

In years gone by a club that needed to win against a club that had nothing to play for meant just one outcome, but perhaps not anymore says Dave Farrar.

Parma v Palermo

A few weeks ago, Parma's fans were getting used to the fact that they'd be supporting a Serie B side again next season, but in the last two weeks the team has dredged up a couple of remarkable performances to beat both Inter at home and then Udinese away, and now Parma find themselves three points above the drop zone with others fading fast. The job isn't done yet, though, and another resurgent team in the shape of Palermo will provide stern opposition on Sunday.

Parma are [2.02] to win, and it's easy to see why that price is as short as it is; the home team have it all to play for, the away team are safely in the top 10, and so, as the Serie A way goes, Parma will be gifted the win. We'd do well to remember that, at the start of the month, Parma welcomed a Bari team here which had pretty much already been relegated. It was a marriage of convenience if ever there was one but Bari won 2-1 and the cynics had discovered that the ground had moved beneath them. And trust me, if this match is to be a fix in favour of the home team, then Parma would be [1.3] to win, not [2.02].

Parma may have improved lately, but they're still not as good a side as Palermo, and I'll certainly be laying Parma at what is a ridiculously short price. Despite their relatively static position in the table, Palermo's players have good reason to be motivated. The club's maverick President, Maurizio Zamparini, has said that Delio Rossi will be in a job next season, but given the respect that the players have for Rossi, and the trigger happy nature of Zamparini's stewardship so far, they'll want to make sure that they finish as high up the table as possible and give Zamparini no cause whatsoever to sack Rossi for a second time in the calendar year.

I'm tempted by the [4.6] about a Palermo win, and those of you who like to split your stakes and lay one team while backing the other should take advantage of that price. I'm not getting greedy though, and will lay a Parma team for whom a draw wouldn't be a disaster.

Recommendation: Lay Parma against Palermo @ [2.02]

Fiorentina v Udinese

Another team with absolutely everything to gain from a victory, Udinese, travel to Florence, and the men from the Friuli are being priced up far shorter than an away side would normally be for a trip like this. The reason for that, of course, is once again the perception that Fiorentina aren't at all bothered about winning, while Udinese are desperate to. That's why we're able to back Fiorentina at [2.6] and that's well worth doing.

Udinese will very possibly have to do without their three best players on Sunday; Gokhan Inler is definitely out through suspension, Alexis Sanchez has probably played his last game for the club after picking up a muscle injury, and Antonio Di Natale is struggling after reporting that he's feeling unwell.

While the excellent Udinese coach Francesco Guidolin must try and make the best of the players that he has available, it's somehow hard to see the Fiorentina coach Sinisa Mihaijlovic sending out a team and allowing them to play at anything other than their best. There are players with points to prove, most notably Adrian Mutu, and with Riccardo Montolivo and Valon Behrami rejoined by Juan Vargas in a powerful looking midfield, there's every reason to suspect that Fiorentina's front three could have a fun afternoon.

La Viola won this fixture 4-1 last season, and while I can't see that kind of scoreline, the home side should certainly be backed at a price which is based on motivation, rather than reality.

Recommendation: Back Fiorentina to beat Udinese @ [2.6]

Dave Farrar believes both his featured games will provide plenty of goals this weekend, but perhaps the best bet could be for Lazio to grab a famous victory at Inter....

After this weekend's action we're closer to knowing who will be winning the major European leagues and that includes Serie A, after Napoli lost at home to Udinese. It's now AC Milan's to lose, says Ben Lyttleton....

Inter are all but out of this title race in the eyes of Dave Farrar and it's left to AC Milan and Napoli to fight to the bitter death. They should both win pretty comfortably this weekend......

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Weekend Preview: All eyes on Frankel

Weekend Preview/Review / Timeform / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is Frankel in a league of his own?

"Frankel will face 12 others in the Guineas and he is currently a [1.56] shot to win the race, not surprising given that he has 12 lb in hand over his nearest rival, Pathfork, on Timeform ratings. "

Timeform look ahead to the first Classic weeekend of the 2011 Flat season...

There is no doubt as to which horse is the main attraction on Saturday as Frankel will be out to make it six wins from six starts in the 2000 Guineas on Newmarket's Rowley Mile. Frankel will face 12 others in the Guineas and he is currently a [1.56] shot to win the race, not surprising given that he has 12 lb in hand over his nearest rival, Pathfork, on Timeform ratings.

Besides the Guineas, there are two further pattern races on the card at Newmarket, namely the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes and the Group 3 Palace House Stakes. The Jockey Club looks an up-to-scratch if not outstanding renewal and the one to beat is Roger Varian's Laaheb. The Palace House looks even more interesting, with the filly Astrophysical Jet set to take on a pair of Nunthorpe winners in Sole Power and Borderlescott.

Goodwood stages its first meeting of the 2011 Flat season on Saturday and there are a couple of listed races on the card, namely the mile-and-a-half Daisy Warwick Fillies' Stakes and the one-mile Conqueror Stakes. The day's other afternoon Flat fixture in Britain is at Thirsk, where the highlight is the valuable Thirsk Hunt Cup handicap over a mile. There is also an evening Flat meeting at Doncaster, while the day's Flat action takes place at Uttoxeter in the afternoon and Hexham in the evening.

There is also notable Flat action overseas on Saturday. There is an all-weather meeting at Dundalk in the afternoon, while Longchamp has Group 1 action in the shape of the ten-furlong Prix Ganay in which Cape Blanco is set to take on some of France's top older horses in Planteur and Sarafina.

Saturday's 2000 Guineas is all about Frankel, but the 1000 Guineas on Sunday is a decidedly more open affair according to the market. Hooray is clear top-rated with Timeform, but there are stamina doubts about her, and with those in mind the market is currently headed by the French filly Moonlight Cloud. Others who could have a major say in the finish include Sir Michael Stoute's Havant, the Hannon-trained Memory and Irish raider Misty For Me.

The other pattern race on Sunday's card at HQ is the Group 3 Dahlia Stakes over nines furlongs for older fillies and mares, while there may well be some Oaks candidates on show in the listed Pretty Polly Stakes over ten furlongs.

The day's other British Flat fixtures are scheduled for Hamilton and Salisbury, while over in Ireland they go on the level at Gowran Park and over jumps at Sligo.

There is also notable action in the Far East where Jamie Spencer takes the ride on Michael Bell's Wigmore Hall in the ten-furlong QEII Cup.

Timeform look back at the weekend's action at Sandown......

The National Hunt season comes to a close on Saturday, when Paul Nicholls will be crowned Champion Trainer for the sixth consecutive season, but it starts all over again on Sunday and there is also plenty to go at on the Flat across the two days....

Timeform look back over Saturday's best racing......

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Pros out in force at EPT San Remo

Poker News / Matthew Pitt / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

The European Poker Tour is currently in Italy for the penultimate stop of Season 7 and some of poker's biggest names have taken to the felt at San Remo over the two official Day 1s.

There were 438 players who entered on Day 1a whilst a further 549 passed through the doors of the casino armed with €5,300 apiece, which they exchanged for 30,000 tournament chips. Although the total attendance of 987 is way down on last year's 1,239 the prizepool on offer is still a very impressive €4,786,950 and that will be shared out amongst the top 144 finishers, each of those walking away with between €7,500 and a mammoth €930,000.

Across the two starting days there were 460 survivors, but Liv Boeree is not amongst them. Boeree won this very event last year but she never got going in this event and slipped away during Day 1b. Some of the players who did make it safely through to Day 2 included five-time World Series of Poker bracelet winner Ted Forrest and living legend, Barry Greenstein.

Going into Day 2 at the top of the chip counts is Ruben Visser, a Dutch tournament specialist who has more than $830,000 in online poker tournament winnings and a further $325,000 from live events. His best finish in an EPT was in 2009 when he came 14th at EPT Vilamoura but he will be looking to best that finish and carry the momenttum from Day 1b with him, a day of poker that saw him finish with 251,500 chips. He is joined at the top by the Lebonese pro, Nicolas Chouity on 233,400 chips. Chouity is currently ranked 91st in the World for online tournament play and has winnings in excess of $1,580,000 from them. He is also extremely dangerous in the live arena, having won more than $2,450,000 from live tournaments, the bulk made up from his win in the EPT Grand Final last year, which netted him a life-changing €1,700,000.

Also in with a shout of going deep at EPT San Remo are Ivan Demidov, John Eames, Roberto Romanello, Vitaly Lunkin, EPT London winner David Vamplew, Vanessa Selbst and the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event winner, Joe Cada. Each of the players will have to play five 75-minute levels today if they are to make it back to the beautiful Casino San Remo for a third day.

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It has been two weeks since I've played a hand of online poker for real money. I did sit down for a couple of play money sessions here and there over the last few days. For example, the other night...

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World Championship Snooker: In-Play semi-final tips

Snooker / Mike Norman / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ding Junhui holds a narrow 9-7 lead over young Judd Trump

"Both players are more than capable of this and their latter sessions should see both relaxing a bit more and playing their natural high-scoring game."

Alex Lee has got himself into a great position in both semi-finals, but not content with settling for what he's got our expert has come up with some more wagers for you to consider.

With Ding Junhui easing into a 9-7 lead against young pretender Judd Trump, the Chinaman is justifying his pre-match tip and hopefully you'll have all traded out by now. Furthermore, Mark Williams got off to a roaring start against John Higgins, winning the first session 5-3, so the tip to lay Higgins with a view to trading out was a simple no-lose bet too.

The hard part now, of course, is picking a tournament winner, which I'll reserve judgement on for the time being (cough... Williams). While both semi-finals are still in progress, the clever money has to be on the two current leaders Williams and Ding to reach the final, although I expect Higgins to battle back more strongly than Trump. For this reason a little Dutching of 17-16 ([11.0]), 17-15 ([10.0]) and 17-14 ([10.0])* to Williams could be the way forward as it covers a trio of outcomes and offers a very palatable percentage payout.

As far as the Trump/Ding match is concerned, a wise move could be to back the Highest Break (Score) over 128.5 which is currently priced @ [2.44]. Both players are more than capable of this and their latter sessions should see both relaxing a bit more and playing their natural high-scoring game.

At the time of writing, Williams had just constructed a graceful century break in frame 13 and the expression Higgins had on his face was that of a beaten man. While the Scotsman has enormous reserves of mental strength, this match looks out of his reach already due to Williams' free-flowing snooker.

Recommended Bets

Back Highest Break (Score) over 128.5 @ [2.44] in the Trump/Ding game
Dutch Williams 17-16 @ [11.0], 17-15 @ [10.0] and 17-14 @ [10.0] v Higgins

*Prices correct at conclusion of second session with Williams leading 9-7

So far the focus has been on picking the best bets from the individual matches, but there's a tournament to be won when all is said and done. With the quarter-finals well under way, there are two outstanding candidates, says...

Alex Lee believes Allen can give Williams the game of his life in the clash of the Marks, while Judd Trump will beat Graeme Dott....

Bullish Bingham can give Ding a run for his money, says Paul Krishnamurty...

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Estoril Moto GP Betting: Lorenzo the magnificent

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jorge Lorenzo loves it in Estoril

The bikes are back and so is Trent Burton. Here are his thoughts on the Estoril Moto GP and the best bets on offer.

We've been talking about it all month. Counting the sleeps. Worrying about the weather. Predicting this and that. And then on Friday, it was finally here. No, not the bloody wedding.

MotoGP has had a month off after the Japanese GP had to be rescheduled after the unfortunate events that have taken place there this year. And since the mad events of Jerez, we've been desperate to get the bikes back on track.

Jorge Lorenzo may have won in Jerez by twenty seconds but that barely made the top five talking points. There were breakdowns and crashes aplenty, none more interesting than Valentino Rossi's fall that took out Casey Stoner. There was a bit of hubbub in the press as a whole host of things were blown out of all context and proportion but the simple facts were this...

Rossi made a mistake. Stoner was unlucky to get taken out. Sometimes that happens in racing. It's no secret the two aren't exactly mates so all it did was widen an already wide divide. And prove that underneath that often gruff exterior, Casey has quite the dry sense of humour.

So now we find ourselves at Estoril. Lorenzo Land. Jorge has never lost a race on an MotoGP bike since he first came here in 2008. The Yamaha might struggle down the long straight here as it's still a little down on power, but even so he's been consistently quick during Friday's practice. Second favourite at [2.94] is an excellent price for the Spaniard to go four in row.

It's been the Hondas setting the pace though. Marco Simoncelli ended Friday the quickest, the most consistently fast rider over the course of the day was Dani Pedrosa and, despite a few setup issues, Stoner was still able to dial in a healthy supply of quick laps too. Simoncelli might look tempting at 6.4 for the win but it's still not a risk I'd be taking. But if his podium price heads up around [1.8], it's well worth a look.

Pedrosa's [7.6] is more tempting however. He's managed a third and a second so far this year with a bung shoulder that he's had fixed in the month off. If it holds up for the full distance there's no doubt he'll be right up there. That price is covered in doubt about the shoulder but he's said it feels a lot better after testing it out on Friday. As such, I'd be looking at that price now before it steadily falls as we approach race day.

Stoner is an interesting one. He's never done particularly well at Estoril and hasn't blown everyone way early on in practice, which is his usual style. He's a [2.76] favourite but I'm much more drawn to what's on offer for the two Spaniards this weekend.

But the forecast for the weekend is rain what might change things a little. If it does rain, a certain Italian comes into the equation. Rossi was quick in the wet in Jerez before he crashed and he's been good already in the dry here, much higher up the order than he has been of late. I wouldn't get too excited and stump up for the [7.8] price on a win but, if wet, [1.76] for a first Ducati podium for Valentino is certainly something to consider.

Rain or shine, the times are desperately close so it should be a cracker. The Ducatis will wear red, Jorge is after a fairytale and I'm sure, whoever wins, they'll give us a wave from the balcony at the end. Just don't expect Casey and Valentino to kiss and make up....

Recommended Bets

Back Jorge Lorenzo for the win at [2.94]
Back Valentino Rossi for a Top 3 (if wet) at [1.76]

Back to Europe, and the Mecca of Spanish motorsport in Jerez, for round two of the championship this weekend. Trent Burton looks for the best bets...

Winter is over and the most anticipated MotoGP season of the 800cc era is finally upon us with Round One from Qatar this weekend. Trent Burton previews the season-opener...

Trent Burton looks ahead to the coming MotoGP season where it's likely to be Lorenzo v Stoner battle for the title...

Betfair website

Winner Stays On: What if Mourinho is right?

Winner Stays On / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jose Mourinho can't believe what's going on at the moment

"Real players are sent off when they shouldn't have been, Barca's get away with murder, penalties aren't awarded to his team but they're awarded against his sides. It's all engineered to stop him on his tracks and prevent him from winning yet another Champions League title."

Conspiracy theories are the name of Mourinho's game. But what does Winner Stays On make of it all?

So Jose Mourinho has complained that it's all a conspiracy.

Everyone wants Barcelona to win and for whichever club he's in charge of to lose. Barca are in on it and UEFA are pulling the strings to ensure that every decision goes against them. Real players are sent off when they shouldn't have been, Barca's get away with murder, penalties aren't awarded to his team but they're awarded against his sides. It's all engineered to stop him on his tracks and prevent him from winning yet another Champions League title.

We're fair people here at Winner Stays On and for what it's worth that sending off of Pepe did look a little harsh in the context of the match given the referee had been pretty lenient up to that point with the way he'd gone about officiating the match. But if it is all a conspiracy as he suggests and they really are all out to get him we were just wondering: given how he's conducted himself over the past eight years or so - could you blame anyone if it was all true?

Searching for glory in a fair and equitable way this week are this week's two contestants.

EddieHoweDo?'s selections

Toulouse v Lyon - Back Lyon HT/FT at 3.5
Setabal v Porto - Back Over 2.5 goals at 1.76
Bayern Munich v Schalke - Back Bayern Munich to win at 1.36

Johnyrambo's selections

Toulouse v Lyon - Back Toulouse to win at 4.1
Setubal v Porto - Back the Draw at 4.0
Bayern Munich v Schalke - Back Under 2.5 goals at 2.58

We have two new contestants this week battling it out to stay on. Find out why......

It wasn't always the case that footballers were millionaires. Had they been born in another era this might have happened......

We give you the Top 5 ways not to spend £100 should you win that by playing Winner Stays On....

Betfair website

Timeform Daily: 2000 Guineas, Saturday, Newmarket 15:10

Race of the Day / Timeform / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Frankel: A red-hot favourite for the Guineas

"It is hard to look beyond the unbeaten Frankel with no concerns about his well-being, and he looks set to justify a tall reputation."

Timeform go through the runners for the first classic of the season...

Broox is a front runner who won three times up to six furlongs in France last year, when also second to Irish Field in the Prix Robert Papin and fourth to Dream Ahead in the Prix Morny. Even that form leads him with plenty to find here.

Casamento developed in a leading juvenile last year for Mick Halford, tasting defeat just once (beaten a head by Pathfork) and ending the season with a game success in the Racing Post Trophy. His new trainer has made a good start to the campaign and a big run is expected.

Dubawi Gold was promising for Michael Dods last year and has improved to land both starts in listed company on the AW for his current yard. He failed to settle when winning last time and a stiff mile at the top level may be beyond him.

Frankel proved himself one of the best juveniles for many years when a ready winner of the Royal Lodge and the Dewhurst in an unbeaten campaign. He easily landed the Greenham on his return and will prove very hard to beat.

Fury was unbeaten in two runs last year, improving markedly on his maiden win when landing the Tattersalls Millions here in some style. He looks an exciting prospect and is sure to develop into a better three-year-old.

Happy Today shaped better than the bare result when fourth on debut here in August prior to a routine win in a Bath maiden. He improved to finish runner-up in the Feilden Stakes on his return but looks to be punching above his weight here.

Loving Spirit looked a smart prospect when landing a 17-runner seven-furlong maiden here on debut last year and confirmed that impression by finishing second in the Houghton Stakes later in October, but his future lies over further than a mile.

Native Khan wasn't far off the best juveniles last year when winning the Solario Stakes and finishing fourth to Casamento in the Racing Post Trophy. He landed the Craven Stakes here on his reappearance but that form has already been let down and the chances are he'll find at least a couple too speedy.

Pahtfork was unbeaten in three starts as a two-year-old, lowering the colours of Casamento in the National Stakes at the Curragh on his final start in 2011. He promises to be better still at a mile and can't be ruled out with his yard among the winners. He wears a first-time tongue tie today.

Rerouted won a seven-furlong Group 3 at this track last season and was a good second in the Free Handicap on his reappearance, but he wears blinkers here and is likely to be making the pace for Frankel.

Roderic O'Connor stepped up on his maiden win when chasing Frankel home in the Dewhursy and landed a Group 1 in France on his final-two-year-old start. He is respected as the Ballydoyle number one, but it's difficult to see him reversing Dewhurst form with Frankel.

Saamidd made a big impression on his first two starts in 2010, notably when quickening smartly to win the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. He clearly wasn't himself when running a shocker in the Dewhurst, but has questions to answer now and Dettori prefers Casamento.

Slim Shadey's sole success in six starts as a two-year-old came in a minor event at Ascot and while he wasn't discredited in smart company afterwards, is clearly some way short of the level required to make an impact here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Frankel
2. Pathfork
3. Casamento

Timeform View: It is hard to look beyond the unbeaten Frankel with no concerns about his well-being, and he looks set to justify a tall reputation. Pathfork and Casamento are closely matched and can fill the places, with the former perhaps the more progressive of the pair.

Timeform run the rule over this five-furlong handicap for three-year-olds......

It's the Perth Festival for today's Race of the Day......

In the week of the Royal Wedding, Free Agent will aim to give the Queen a winner at Ascot in the 2m Sagaro Stakes.......

Betfair website

Doncaster Placepot: Friday April 29

Daily Placepots / Shahin Khoshsokhan / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

"Sairaam's fitness has to be taken on trust, but she's returned to her last winning mark and this trip on good to firm going should be ideal for her."

Small fields means only ten places are up for grabs at Doncaster today, but we'll do our best, anyway.

14-30 - Only the four runners, but Tasman Tiger is hard to recommend on what she's shown in a couple of bumpers while Adaria also has plenty to prove and is bred to need further than this. That leaves just Royal Hush, who will be suited by the step up in trip, and newcomer Bella Montagna, who's bred to be useful and is from a yard that are capable of readying a newcomer.

15.00 - Sairaam's fitness has to be taken on trust, but she's returned to her last winning mark and this trip on good to firm going should be ideal for her. Musical Festival is another who's making his comeback but he's still relatively lightly raced and had excuses since getting off the mark at Ayr last summer.

15.35 - Boundaries isn't the strongest of finishers, but his speed makes him hard to keep out of the frame nonetheless, and his third at Thirsk on his return recently proves he's trained on well. Look Who's Kool beat a couple of subsequent winners on his final start as a juvenile and should have further progress in him being a half-brother to the smart Now Look Here.

16.10 - A very tight handicap and the withdrawal of Pertemps Networks means coming third is now worthless. Fourth Generation is arguably open to the most improvement than any of these, lightly raced and having plenty of physical scope, and he hails from a yard whose runners continue to run well. Patavium hides no secrets from the handicapper, but he's very reliable and has winning form over this course and distance.

16.45 - Another four-runner event, but this looks trickier than the opening race on the card. Oasis Storm pulled too hard upped to this trip on his return last time, while Baharat hasn't looked the most straightforward on his previous two starts, which leaves us with the reliable George Woolf and the top weight Halfspin, whose maiden win last time has since been boosted by the third.

17.20 - Bosambo took another step in the right direction when runner-up at Redcar recently and should play a big part from the same mark here. Another Citizen remains with potential and this step up in trip could well be the answer.

Selections: 64 lines

14:30 3,5
15:00 3,5
15:35 2,4
16:10 3,7
16:45 1,5
17:20 1,3

A choice of meetings at which to play today but, with field sizes looking manageable and a Frankie Dettori-ridden banker, Bath appears as the safest Placepot proposition....

For all there's plenty of quality down at Ascot, Pontefract appeals as the better of the two afternoon Flat meetings for placepot purposes....

A much calmer day of racing today and it's over to Lingfield for the Placepot......

Betfair website

Evening Market Movers: Friday April 29

Market Movers / Editor / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

All the evening market movers on Bwetfair's racing markets.

BANGOR

17.45
Supernoverre 7.4 in to 4.9
Morning Sunshine 3.85 out to 5.4
Perfectus 20.0 in to 10.5

18.15
Trooper Clarence 1.93 out to 2.26
Mujamead 7.4 in to 6.0

18.45
Alazan 6.4 in to 4.4
Al Qeddaaf 4.6 out to 7.6

19.15
Sweet Irony 1.69 in to 1.25

19.45
Soulard 13.0 in to 9.6

20.15
My Flora 1.68 in to 1.48
Goscar Rock 7.2 out to 10.5

FONTWELL

17.30
Psi 6.8 in to 4.7
Royal Wedding 3.4 out to 4.8
High Jack 8.2 in to 5.9
Victory Surge 6.6 in to 5.3

18.05
Lord Liath 2.03 in to 1.49
Lombok 20.0 in to 9.0

18.35
Free To Air 2.1 in to 1.61

19.05
Rare Symphony 2.8 out to 4.6
First Smash 6.0 in to 4.5

19.35
King Of Leon 3.3 in to 2.96
Good All Days 6.2 in to 4.7

20.05
Rossbrin 2.62 in to 2.06

DUNDALK

18.30
Ballroom 4.0 in to 3.15

21.00
Hired Hand 3.25 in to 2.62
Swing Pattern 2.5 out to 3.3

21.25
Hassanali 6.0 in to 4.35

KILBEGGAN

17.50
Akatara 5.9 in to 4.4
Priors Gold 2.52 out to 3.1

18.50
Larkin 9.6 in to 8.0

This evening's market movers from the UK and Ireland......

This afternoon's market movers from Bath, Hereford and Perth....

This evening's market movers from the UK and Ireland......

Betfair website

IPL Betting: Kolkata Knight Riders v Kings XI Punjab

Indian Premier League - IPL / Richard O’Hagan / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jacques Kallis would love nothing better than to be wearing the Orange Cap at the end of the tournament

"Punjab have been so reliant upon their top three that they could be in severe trouble if Brett Lee and Lakshmipathy Balaji remove two of Valthaty, Adam Gilchrist and Shaun Marsh early on. Pick Kolkata for the win at [1.78]."

With Kolkata second in the table, and Punjab sixth (but having played up to three games less than any other side) this is a fascinating match-up between two teams who should be in play-off contention at the end of the IPL season.

Kolkata

The Knight Riders might have a 4-3 record, but two of those defeats were narrow ones and only their loss to Bangalore can be considered a significant defeat. Gautam Gambhir has proved to be a shrewd captain as well as scoring runs consistently and will be a big factor for them.

Punjab

Kings XI have a 3-2 record from their five matches, with batsman Paul Valthaty the surprise package of the entire tournament. He will be seeking the sixteen runs that he needs to regain the orange cap from Sachin Tendulkar.

Match Odds

Kolkata have an embarrassment of riches at the top of their order, and their biggest decision could be which overseas batsman to leave out from Kallis, Haddin, ten Doeschate and Morgan. Punjab have been so reliant upon their top three that they could be in severe trouble if Brett Lee and Lakshmipathy Balaji remove two of Valthaty, Adam Gilchrist and Shaun Marsh early on. Pick Kolkata for the win at [1.78]

Top Scorer odds

Valthaty isn't the only one seeking that orange cap in this game. Kallis is just 17 runs behind him and the South African is one of the most tenacious opponents around when he has a record in his sights. He should be available at around [4.5] to top score in this game.

Best Bet

Jacques Kallis to be top scorer at around [4.5]

A match between two of the bottom three sides might not look very attractive, but with both sides only a couple of wins away from the playoff places, there is plenty of value to be had...if you know where to...

Kolkata captain Gautam Gambhir has something to prove against the Delhi Daredevils, warns Tobias Gourlay...

The tournament favourites are looking solid in their search for a maiden IPL title....

Betfair website

Guineas Festival: Graham Cunningham on Saturday

Guineas / Graham Cunningham / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is Frankel set for Guineas glory?

"Most likely, Frankel will use that raking stride to forge clear up the hill to give Cecil his 25th British Classic win and send the Newmarket faithful into raptures."

Friday was royal wedding day but on Saturday the mighty Frankel bids to crown himself king of the classic colts. All eyes are on Newmarket as the fiery Galileo colt bids to give Henry Cecil his 25th British Classic winner. Graham Cunningham pinpoints a clutch of betting angles in part one of his Guineas weekend focus.

If history tells us one thing it is that any horse can be beaten and logic suggests there are three ways Frankel can be beaten in Saturday's 2000 Guineas.

First, he might run below par for no obvious reason; second, his tendency to pull hard might prove a weakness on his biggest day yet; or third, one of his rivals might just spring up and record a top-notch performance to beat him fair and square as the pair pull clear.

But much the most likely scenario is that Frankel will use that raking stride to forge clear up the hill to give Cecil his 25th British Classic win and send the Newmarket faithful into raptures.

Granted, Frankel's habit of pulling hard early is a slight concern, but it hasn't stopped him winning four good races by a total of almost 30 lengths and, with potential dangers like Wootton Bassett, Dream Ahead and Dubai Prince all missing, I reckon he should be more like [1.4] than the current [1.57] available on Betfair.

However, the best Guineas value probably lies in using a little imagination in the place lay and without Frankel markets.

Those with a line into Coolmore seem to feel Dewhurst second Roderic O'Connor hasn't grown over the winter, but he thrived on racing at two and is the only horse to give Frankel anything like a race since his debut.

He looks capable of running a bold race on the pace again, while Casamento is another proven Group 1 performer who looks capable of outrunning long odds even though it is a shade worrying that his presence seems something of an afterthought after Godolphin were forced to scratch Dubai Prince.

On the lay front it looks like I will have to go pretty high to oppose Dubawi Gold in the place market. The risk looks worth taking, though, as Richard Hannon's colt is surely in much too deep here having been hard pushed to land a couple of Lingfield Listed contests this spring.

The older I get the less keen I am to commit in races where the market has yet to take shape properly, but the following points might be worth noting on the rest of the Guineas day card...

Proponent looks to have much more going than most in the opener at 14:00.

Roger Charlton's gelding is a past winner of this and hasn't gone backwards judged on several good efforts in top handicaps last year and a strong-finishing fourth on his Newbury reappearance.

These conditions suit and having Frankie on board for the first time is clearly no hardship.

Four of the sextet for the 14:30 look very closely matched but a split stakes ploy involving Laaheb and Dandino looks the safe ploy.

The market won't miss Laaheb. That said, he's a hugely reliable and uncomplicated horse with fitness on his side and leading form claims.

Dandino needs a lifetime best to win this, but the market might take a chance with him. Either way, he boasts a fine strike rate and looked better than ever when slamming a couple of useful rivals at Ripon.

I don't doubt that Astrophysical Jet is the most interesting horse in the Palace House at 15:45.

Whether Ed McMahon's filly is nap material first time out under a penalty is another matter, but AJ thrived last year and owns the sort of late burst which very few of her peers can match.

The freewheeling Jonny Mudball, Inxile and Tangerine Trees look bound to help force a searching gallop here, but even so I doubt they will go hard enough to allow Evens And Odds land a major blow.

He offers place lay potential on his first run over five furlongs since 2008, while Tangerine Trees is another for the place lay short list given that there seems zero chance of a soft lead at this level.

The 15:45 is tough to price up and even tougher to call. Fahey and Hanagan seldom err when it comes to assessing their horses and the jungle drums keep beating out a message suggesting that big things are expected of Alben Star this year.

If that's the case, a mark of 89 could prove very workable, while Regal Approval blotted his copybook at the stalls on his final start in 2010 but did enough before then to suggest that he is another with the scope to do some damage in valuable handicaps this year.

Much depends on how they bet in a 16:55 which looks wide open. The fact that Namibian recorded a career best here despite being hampered on his reappearance suggests that he ought to corner a fair chunk of the market.

If he does then I suspect I will be laying him. Mark Johnston's colt has shown a lazy streak on occasion and that might just cost him here against improvers like Cai Shen, Ocean War and Treasury Devil.

Timeform go through the runners for the first classic of the season......

A maximum field of fifteen will line up for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday, with Dream Ahead the most notable absentee at the latest declaration stage, whilst 23 have been declared for the 1000 on Sunday......

Paul Jacobs poses the questions at Billy Nash who gives an Irish perspective on the upcoming 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas while also looking at potential Irish raiders for the 2011 Flat season...

Betfair website

Timeform Horses in Focus: Arizona Jewel, Glen's Diamond & Night Carnation

Horses in Focus / Timeform / 28 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Henry Cecil: Has a viable Oaks candidate in Arizona Jewel

"Arizona Jewel...looks certain to improve for the run and will presumably take in a trial next time out, with her handler regularly using the Lingfield Oaks Trial and York’s Musidora Stakes to test his fillies’ classic credentials."

Timeform's Phil Thompson brings you three horses worth watching closely in the coming weeks...

First up this week is Arizona Jewel. Trained by the legendary Henry Cecil and from an excellent family - she is closely related to Frankel's dam Kind - Arizona Jewel caught the eye with how well she travelled when third on her debut at two. Given time to strengthen thereafter, she was an impressive winner of a maiden at Sandown on her return as a three-year-old. In control from halfway, she easily accounted for the equally well bred Skip Along by a length and a half and in doing so, went onto plenty of shortlists for the Oaks. She looks certain to improve for the run and will presumably take in a trial next time out, with her handler regularly using the Lingfield Oaks Trial and York's Musidora Stakes to test his fillies' classic credentials. Henry Cecil

Richard Fahey has a lot to look forward to this season and Glen's Diamond is certainly one of his more interesting three-year-old prospects. All three this progressive gelding's wins have only seemed to scratch the surface of his ability and there is definitely more to come from him. After winning his last two starts as a juvenile. Glen's Diamond returned with a victory in a competitive handicap at Musselburgh, winning by a length and a quarter from Calypso Magic, despite still showing signs of greenness and clearly needing a stiffer test of stamina. His handler had warned that he was not fully wound up for his reappearance and even further progression can be expected when he is stepped up to 1½m in the Edinburgh Gold Cup at the same track on Derby Day (June 5). Richard Fahey

Finally, we come to the three-year-old filly Night Carnation. Trained by Andrew Balding, it would be fair to say that she did not set the world alight during her four runs at two, for all that she was promising in winning a maiden and then finishing runner-up in a listed contest at Doncaster on her final two starts. However, she looked a different proposition altogether when impressively landing a handicap off top-weight at Sandown on her reappearance. Dropping back to the minimum distance for the first time, she travelled smoothly and quickened impressively to lead at the furlong pole and quickly put the race to bed, beating Ahtoug by two lengths. In doing so Night Carnation displayed form that entitles her to be competitive at Group 3 level at the least, especially in fillies only company, with five furlongs likely to prove her optimum trip. Andrew Balding

With a [33.0] winner, Wayne Bailey's National Hunt 'horses to follow' showed good profits - but will the flat season prove more tricky?...

Two performers to watch on the all-weather...

Another three to watch from the Timeform team...

Timeform take a close look at three horses who you will want to keep an eye on in future.......

Betfair website

The Punter's Live Golf Blog: The Ballantines Championship and the Zurich Classic

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 28 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Kyung-tae Kim – Has the Punter secured some early Korean value?

"I can’t say I was looking to back Kyung-tae Kim but I couldn’t work out his price at all."

Y E Yang disappoints again but it's not all doom and gloom at this very early stage...

14:45- April 28, 2011

It's a bit early to kick-off the live blog but I have already made an in-running move at the Ballantines Championship, backing Kyung-tae Kim at an average of a shade over [30.0] this morning.

It's been a first round of mixed fortunes for my pre-event picks with three of the four managing to shoot under par, a feat only achieved by 35 of the 154-strong field, but the one most likely to do ok, according to rankings and price, Y E Yang, has once again been awful.

My first sighting of the Korean superstar this morning was a sign of things to come. Already on a score of +1 for the round when Sky went live, he played from a fairway bunker to a greenside bunker and managed to plug the ball and give himself no chance to save par. That started a run of three straight bogeys and pretty much did for his chances.

It was a case of yin and yang for the two picks that had started early and were already in the clubhouse when I got up. Kiradech Aphibarnrat had a mare early on, double-bogeying his first hole, the tenth, and reaching the turn on +3 before firing two birdies and an eagle on the front-nine (his second nine) to finish the round under par. In stark contrast, Rikard Karlberg, also playing the back-nine first, reached -4 after 11 before dropping three shots in his last seven. Both sit on -1 and have to be considered still in it.

My only other pick, James Morrison had a great day and shot -3.

I can't say I was looking to back Kyung-tae Kim but I couldn't work out his price at all. He had already shot -3 and was safely in the clubhouse and yet was being offered up at above [30.0] and was even matched at above [40.0]! Given that he went off at just a few ticks bigger than that I felt I had to get him onboard. I know what usually happens when I get a great price about someone I wasn't looking to back though... down the leaderboard they tumble. I could just lay back and take a free bet but I'll let it roll, it's not as if alternatives are clear at this stage.

Of the big names, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Dustin Johnson have started the best but they're both four shots behind early pace-setter Damien McGrane, who sits on -6.

Over at the Zurich Classic, they've only just started but I wish it was over! My man Charlie Wi is making the early running but to say there's a long way to go is sizable understatement.

Pre-Event Picks
Ballantines Championship

Y E Yang @ [24.0]
Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ [120.0]
James Morrison @ [180.0]
Rickard Karlberg @ [370.0]

In-running Bets

Kyung-tae Kim @ an average of [30.0]

Pre-Event Picks
Zurich Classic

Bubba Watson @ [34.0]
Troy Matteson @ [200.0]
Charlie Wi @ [230.0]

There's little to go on in Korea and clues are few and far between in Louisiana but Steve's dug out a few to go to war with........

Colsaerts powers home in China as Brandt sneaks in to nick the title in South Carolina, but how did our man fare and what have we learnt for next year?...

Steve finds reasons to take on Luke with Ben but China's off the radar for now......

Betfair website

The Championship Betting: Must win time for Blades and Lions

Championship / Andrew French / 28 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Micky Adams’ Sheff Utd side have a tiny chance of achieving Championship safety

"It was the Blades' second consecutive 3-2 win, and the fact they have ground out those two successes shows they are prepared to fight for their survival."

For different reasons, Sheff Utd and Millwall need three points on Saturday, whilst Crystal Palace will be delighted if they can secure a point at Hull. Andrew French explains all.

Sheff Utd v Barnsley

Even to have a chance of staying up, Sheffield United need everything to go their way both this weekend and next. All they can do is win and hope - and I think they have every chance of doing the former. The Blades were all but down when they trailed 2-0 at Reading on Monday, but an amazing rally to win that game has given them a slender lifeline. It was the Blades' second consecutive 3-2 win, and the fact they have ground out those two successes shows they are prepared to fight for their survival. Visitors Barnsley have nothing to play for but pride - and they have won only once in their last eight outings. They have not won any of their last eight away games and, having conceded at least once in each of their last nine games, the evidence points to the home side being able to find the net.

Back Sheff Utd at [2.18]

Millwall v Swansea

One of four teams fighting for the last play-off slot, Millwall are on something of a roll - and how often do we see teams come from outside the top six with a charge at the end of the season? The Lions have won six of their last nine and were lethal in putting away a woeful Preston side at The Den last weekend, following up by just about sending Scunthorpe down to League One with a win at Glanford Park on Monday. Visitors Swansea are assured of being involved in the play-offs, but are not in the greatest form. Monday's win over Ipswich was their first in four attempts, and they have lost more away matches this season (11) than any other team in the top 10. They particularly struggle when visiting the division's better teams, losing seven of their nine games away to top-half opposition.

Back Millwall at [2.46]

Hull v Crystal Palace

A point will be good enough to make sure Palace are playing Championship football again next season, and while no team will ever admit to playing for a draw, you couldn't blame Palace for looking to keep it tight in this one. Their away record suggests they can't risk being too cavalier; their 16 defeats is the highest in the division and their sole victory on the road was way back on October 10. However, the Eagles have been far harder to beat on their travels lately, drawing their last two at Doncaster and Leicester. In fact, their recent run of two defeats in seven shows they have knuckled down just when they've needed to. Hosts Hull can, conceivably, still finish sixth - but it would take an incredible sequence of results. Instead, they are set for a mid-table finish and their home form must give Palace plenty of hope. The Tigers have failed to win 15 of their 22 matches at the KC Stadium, and have been beaten at home by two of the bottom three sides already this season.

Lay Hull at [1.86]

Since the start of 2011 Andrew has had 38 winning bets from 57 selections, resulting in a profit of £203.17 (£10 stake/liability on each selection)

There's some crucial action in The Championship promotion battle and Andrew French picks the best bets from three games at the top of the table...

With just a handful of games to go the Easter programme has a big say in deciding who goes up and who goes down, and Andrew French is hoping Watford can see of Barnsley and push for a play-off spot....

There's still lots to play for in the Championship and Andrew French believes Preston, Hull and Crystal Palace can go along way to achieving their aims by securing vital home wins this weekend....

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