NBA Line Betting: Hawks will continue to soar

Basketball / Nick Shiambouros / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Atlanta's Jeff Teague scored a career high 24 points last time out

"Atlanta Hawks will be very difficult to beat and must be backed with the handicap -4.5 at around [2.0]."

There are some important games taking place in the NBA tonight as this exciting season continues. Below is a preview of three games with handicap betting advice from Nick Shiambouros.

Boston Celtics v Cleveland Cavaliers
The Celtics, 9-10 for the season, are not playing anywhere near their best and seem to be missing Rajon Rondo who is recovering from a wrist injury. The point-guard's absence has forced Boston to run their offence through Paul Pierce which is not ideal.

Boston coach Doc Rivers is concerned by the lack of effort from his rotation but I am certain he will make the necessary adjustments ahead of this game.

The Cavaliers are 8-11 and are slowly adjusting to life without LeBron James. Rookie Kyrie Irving has impressed me this season with his outstanding ball distribution. This young point-guard has a future in Cleveland and will only get better with time.

Cavs forward Anderson Varejao has a decent record against Boston averaging 14.6 points per game over the last five meetings. He is an explosive player who could make the All-Star team next month.

This is a very important game for Boston. This veteran team needs to start winning games in a hurry to secure their place in the post-season. I think they will come out firing against the Cavs and should be backed at around [2.0] with the -3 handicap. They have a deep roster and should have way too much class for Cleveland.

Atlanta Hawks v Toronto Raptors
The Hawks are 15-6 and are playing some very sound basketball. On Sunday they thrashed New Orleans 94-72 with an outstanding team effort.

Atlanta has been in irresistible form on the road and will be looking for their fourth win of a five game trip. Point-guard Jeff Teague spreads the floor well and is coming off a career high 24 points effort against New Orleans.

The Raptors are 7-14 and have lost their last three home games. Toronto has been plagued with injuries this season and will not have the services of Andrea Bargnani who is still nursing a sore calf.

Toronto has some talented players in the rotation but they have not found a replacement for Chris Bosh, who was traded to Miami last season.

I think the Atlanta Hawks will be very difficult to beat and must be backed with the handicap -4.5 at around [2.0].

New Jersey Nets v Indiana Pacers
The Nets are 7-14 for the season, and are coming off a 94-73 loss to Toronto on Sunday. This team is led by superstar guard Deron Williams who has been in fine form recently but receives very little support from the rest of the rotation.

The Pacers are 13-6 and are in superb form. On Sunday they beat Orlando 106-85 with a lethal display of shooting. Forward Danny Granger scored 24 points and was the most effective player on the floor.

The Pacers have owned the Nets in recent meetings having won the last eight. I think another victory is assured and they should backed at around [1.9] with the -9.5 handicap.

Recommended Bets
Back Boston Celtics at [2.0] with advertised handicap -3 2pts
Back Atlanta Hawks at [2.0] with advertised handicap -4.5 1pt
Back Indiana Pacers at [1.9] with advertised handicap -9.5 2pts

There are some interesting fixtures taking place this Friday as the NBA season continues. Nick Shiambouros previews three games and provides handicap betting advice....

New York will struggle against a strong Charlotte side while Indiana look set to march on and Portland bid to win a tight contest. Nick Shiambouros previews the three games and provides handicap betting advice....

The NBA keeps on trucking with another handful of interesting games taking place tonight. Nick Shiambouros previews three of those games with handicap betting advice....

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Nick Shiambouros' Patented 80/20 Bet: Folkestone, 14:50

80/20 / Nick Shiambouros / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nick can't Promise that this selection will go one better than second place last time out but he is hoping for a strong run

Today's 80/20 is Avoca Promise in the 14:50 at Folkestone.

This gelding finished a decent second to Super Directa over this course last March, making good progress two flights from home and keeping on well in the closing stages without troubling the easy winner. I think he brings a good level of form to the table and should go close at a fair price. At present he is trading at [4.4] on the exchange.

Who has Nick plumped for today?...

Hurdles debut for today's selection - will it be a winning start over obstacles?...

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African Cup of Nations Diary: Group win for Gernot's Gabon?

African Cup Of Nations / Jonathan Wilson / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Tournament co-hosts have won both games so far and could secure a stay at their favoured Libreville stadium throughout the knockout stages by avoiding defeat. Jonathan Wilson thinks they can do it

The tournament feels as though it's hit something of a lull. After all the excitement of the second round of games, when last-minute winners confirmed the progress of Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Tunisia, the final set of games has been about jockeying for quarter-final positions. Even the events of yesterday, when Sudan edged through to the last eight thanks to Angola's shambolic defending lacked the drama of last week.

So we know now that Zambia will play Sudan in the first semi-final, and that Ivory Coast will then take on Equatorial Guinea in Malabo, where the smaller stadium will surely offer less of an advantage than they would have enjoyed had they won their group and remained in Bata.

Gabon and Tunisia, who meet on Tuesday evening, have already secured their progress, but both know that the likely result of finishing second in the group is a game against Ghana. Only a Guinea victory against the Ghanaians could unseat the Black Stars from the top of the group and were that to happen there would be a serious possibility they would not qualify at all, for Mali will surely beat Botswana to leave three teams locked on six points.

Similarly, their coach, Gernot Rohr, sees an advantage in staying in Libreville.

"We would like to finish first in the group because when we finish first we can play in Libreville, in this wonderful stadium with this fantastic crowd," he said.

"And I hope we can be first because then we can stay in Gabon. If we are second it's possible that we'd play a semi-final in Equatorial Guinea. It will be a difficult game against Tunisia. They have two victories, too."

A draw would be enough for Gabon to top the group, but a win would also help to convince home fans who, weirdly, seem to think their team should be playing even better than it is. After the extraordinary late drama of the win over Morocco, when Gabon scored in the 77th and 79th minutes to take the lead, conceded in the 90th and then regained the lead in the 97th, the first question Rohr faced in the post-match press conference asked why his side hadn't won more easily.

"I don't feel any vengeance against me but the people are impatient," Rohr said, but he must be frustrated that having taken a team that was [30.0] at the beginning of the tournament to the quarter-finals, his work is not better appreciated.

"They didn't really understand we wanted to create a young team that would work together and be united. They are gaining more and more confidence because we have a good blend. There is a fresh new spirit, a cocktail that has produced a good competition for us so far."

Does that mean that he will play a full-strength team? Are Tunisia, whose policy of defending deep and hitting on the break has been successful so far but has required a certain amount of fortune, more likely to rest players? Probably, but both sides are unlikely to risk players on a yellow card and thus at risk of suspension.

So what of the other Tuesday game, between Morocco and Niger, two sides who are already out? The suspicion is that Morocco, who thought they had a genuine chance of winning the tournament, will give squad players a chance, while Niger, for whom even a point in the tournament would be success, may pick something more closely resembling a first choice side.

Recommended Bet
Morocco look short and laying them at [1.61] may be an option, but in an uncertain world, I like the look of [2.1] on over-2.5 goals in that game. A Moroccan backlash could obliterate Niger, while Niger are wobbly at the back and showed against Tunisia that they have the firepower to upset ostensibly better sides.

Win £1,000 on the African Cup of Nations Megaminute!

Fancy winning a cool £1,000? Simply login to Megaminute and guess the time of the first goal in our selected match from the tournament. If there is no winner, the fund gets rolled into the pot for the next matchday. To qualify, a £50 bet (single or multiple) must be placed on any football match featuring on the same day as the selected match. See Megaminute for full details.

Group C's top two are already confirmed in the last eight, but Tobias Gourlay believes Gabon have more to lose from this match than Tunisia...

Tobias Gourlay speculates that Group C will finish with Niger not losing a finals match for the first time in history...

James Eastham says motivation will be a major factor as the tournament favourites play their third and final Group B game....

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Red Mills Chase: Rubi heads to Gowran

The Cheltenham Festival / Timeform / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Rubi Light will run at Gowran before Cheltenham.

"He doesn't need long coming out of his races. He did the same last year..."

Trainer Robbie Hennessy will follow a tried-and-tested route by running Rubi Light at Gowran before heading to Cheltenham...

The seven-year-old won the Red Mills Chase in 2011 on the way to finishing third to Albertas Run in the Ryanair Chase at the Festival.

The two-and-a-half-mile contest on February 18 is again ideal for Hennessy's charge as it comes just less than four weeks before his prime objective.

"We are going to give him a run in Gowran Park on the 18th of February in the Red Mills and that's something to look forward with him first," said County Meath-based Hennessy.

"He won it last year and the weather forecast is bad for the foreseeable future, so I imagine the ground will be testing which would play to his strengths.

"After that we'll just keep him ticking over for Cheltenham.

"He doesn't need long coming out of his races. He did the same last year."

Rubi Light has enjoyed a profitable campaign that has seen him win the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown and finish second in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on his first try over three miles.

Rated 162 by Timeform, Rubi Light can currently be backed at [8.8] for the Ryanair, a marginally bigger price than antepost favourite Noble Prince ([7.8]).

Others to note in the market would be Somersby ([9.6]), Riverside Theatre ([12.0]) and Captain Chris ([17.5]).

Racing For Change's main aim is to "broaden the appeal of the sport". The scheme's decision-makers could do a lot worse than put the feelers out to stage a match between the two outstanding hurdlers of the moment, argues Timeform jumps handicapper Phil Turner......

The Alan King-trained Montbazon got back to winning ways at Plumpton on Monday......

Diamond Harry will be checked out for a possible breathing problem after his run at Cheltenham on Saturday......

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European Tour Form Guide: Peter a Hanson bet in Qatar

Golf Form Guide / Mike Norman / 30 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Swede Peter Hanson

"Retief Goosen and Peter Hanson are of more interest however - the former showing glimpses of his best form in recent weeks, whilst Hanson’s final round display last week is best ignored."

Ignore Peter Hanson's final round collapse in Abu Dhabi says Mike Norman, the Swede is still playing well and is one of this week's Form Guide's three suggested players.

If it was a 'dream' for Robert Rock just to be playing in the same group as Tiger Woods, I wonder how he's feeling now that he went head-to-head with the great man in the final group on a Sunday - and defeated him.

It was a fabulous performance from Rock, and although he wasn't one of our 'Players to Watch' last week, the likeable down to earth Englishman was recording his third top-10 finish and fourth top-12 finish in his last four events, so a form clue was definitely there.

Alvaro Quiros was a big disappointment for us last week but two of our other players to watch - Charl Schwartzel and Peter Hanson - got into contention at different stages and traded significantly lower than their pre-tournament odds.

The Tour stays in the desert this week for the Qatar Masters where another strong field has assembled. Lee Westwood is the early favourite at [11.0], just ahead of Martin Kaymer and Sergio Garcia, both available to back at [16.0]. American Ryder Cup star Hunter Mahan ([25.0]) makes a rare but welcome appearance on the European Tour but I doubt his presence will generate anywhere near as much attention as Tiger Woods did seven days ago.

Tournament Finishing Positions

(Tournaments used: Abu Dhabi Championship, Volvo Golf Champions, Joburg Open, Africa Open, Dubai World Championship, UBS Hong Kong Open)

Branden Grace (2)... 27
Rory McIlroy (2)... 26
Robert Rock (3)... 22
Retief Goosen (2)... 21
Louis Oosthuizen (3)... 21
Peter Hanson (2)... 15
Alvaro Quiros (2)... 15
Charl Schwartzel (2) ... 14
Paul Lawrie (3)... 14
Jaco Van Zyl (2)... 13.5

*number in brackets after a player's name is the number of top-10 finishes achieved in qualifying period
**players in bold are scheduled to participate in the next tournament on tour

Branden Grace remains top of our form guide as the fact is, despite missing the cut in Abu Dhabi, he has won two of his last three events. Retief Goosen and Hanson are of more interest however - the former showing glimpses of his best form in recent weeks, whilst Hanson's final round display last week is best ignored. The Swede recorded a magnificent eight under par third round on Saturday but looked visibly nervous playing in the same group as Woods on Sunday.

Players to watch: Branden Grace [70.0], Retief Goosen [30.0], Peter Hanson [44.0]

The Cut-makers

Jaco Van Zyl... 17.5
Charl Schwartzel... 14.5
George Coetzee... 13.5
Retief Goosen... 12.5
Thomas Bjorn... 12
Ernie Els... 12
David Drysdale... 12
Robert Karlsson... 12
Jamie Elson... 12
Luke Donald... 12
Gregory Havret... 12

Jaco Van Zyl is becoming a solid weekend performer. If scores were reset at the halfway stage the South African would have finished first, fourth, and eighth in his last three events and is a total of 26 shots under par for the last six weekend rounds he has played. Van Zyl is definitely a player to watch In-Play when making the cut and is worth keeping an eye on in various markets depending on how far back he is.

Players to watch In-Play: Jaco Van Zyl, George Coetzee, Retief Goosen

Don't forget to check back later in the week for The Punter's in depth preview of this event.

The European Tour moves to UAE this week where a world class field has been assembled, but Mike Norman's Form Guides points us firmly in the direction of a likeable desert specialist....

Mike Norman's updated form guide has thrown up a trio of South African-born players to follow at this week's prestigious Volvo Golf Champions event....

Mike Norman kicks off his new Form Guide column with a look at the best performing players on the European Tour currently, and recent winner Louis Oosthuizen heads the list....

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Folkestone

Going Report / Editor / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Racecourse: Folkestone
First Race Time: 13:50
Going: Chase course - Good
Hurdle course - Good to Soft, Soft in places
Other Information: RACING GOES AHEAD. 0ºC overnight. Cloudy today with temperature 3ºC.

Racecourse: Southwell First Race Time: 1.30pm Going: Standard Other Information: Dry overnight...

Racecourse: Taunton First Race Time: 13:40 Going: Good to Soft, Soft in places Other Information: Dry overnight. -1.9ºC at 6.40am but no problems anticipated at this stage....

Racecourse Ayr First Race Time 12.50pm Going Soft, Heavy in places Other Information RACING GOES AHEAD. 0.2mm of rain in the last 24 hours. -1ºC overnight, +1ºC at 6.30am. Temperature forecast to rise from 10am to a maximum of 4ºC....

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Follow The Money: No sanctuary for out of form Sanctuaire

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Sanctuaire (right) continue a poor run of recent form?

"On old form, including a novice hurdle beating of Grands Crus, Sanctuaire would be a banker but those days seem along way away judged on his last few runs."

Today's Follow The Money comes from the meetings at Southwell and Taunton.

Our first mover goes in the apprentice race from Southwell at 13.30, the horse being the Ian Williams-inmate Teutonic Knight who has been backed from [30.0] into [12.5]. The five-year-old was a promising third on debut last year in a bumper at Lingfield but has disappointed since, being well beaten in another bumper and three maidens on the Flat. It's worth bearing in mind though those three maiden runs were all over a mile and today he adds another six furlongs to the distance. Judging by his debut this type of distance should suit and everything points to a big run.

Moving now to Taunton for the novice chase at 14.40 where there has been a negative move for Paul Nicholls' Sanctuaire, who has drifted from an opening [1.81] out to [2.44]. On old form, including a novice hurdle beating of Grands Crus , Sanctuaire would be a banker but those days seem along way away judged on his last few runs. Though the six-year-old is young enough to go chasing you can't help but think Nicholls has stuck him over fences in hope that a change of scenery might bring about some improvement.

Sanctuaire was tricky at the start last time out, eventually jumping off after missing the start by 20 odd lengths. His is taking on some promising rivals today and will have to be on his best behaviour if Ruby Walsh is to get the best out of him at the business end. That said, if any trainer can get the best out of this strong traveller it's Nicholls though it is understandable that layers are keen to lay him at odds-on.

We stay at Taunton for our final move of the day, which comes in the 15.40 where Charlie Longsdon's Onefourfun who has been backed from [10.0] into [5.9]. The horse has been of the course for 733 days but prior to this was a consistent improving type in handicap hurdles. Even though the horse is now 10 years old he is still relatively lightly raced and could be running of a very reasonable mark today is running well fresh and judging by the move for him connections must have prepared him well after his lengthy layoff.

Recommended Bets
Back Teutonic Knight @ [12.5] Southwell 13.30
Lay Sanctuaire @ [2.44] Taunton 14.40
Back Oneforfun @ [5.9] Taunton 15.40

Two backs and one lay based on price movements on Betfair's racing markets. The reasons and the reasoning are explained by the Follow The Money crew......

Today's Follow The Money comes from the meetings at Ffos Las and Leopardstown....

Today's Follow The Money bets run at Doncaster, Cheltenham and Uttoxeter....

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Market Movers: Tuesday January 31

Market Movers / Editor / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Folkestone, Southwell and Taunton

Folkestone
13.50
Open Hearted 1.98 in to 1.71
Likeable Rogue 4.8 out to 6.2
Be All Man 9.4 out to 14.0

14.20
Merion Square 4.6 in to 3.5
El Padrino 7.0 in to 4.6

14.50
Fourth Estate 2.26 in to 1.69
Opening Batsman 6.8 out to 9.0

15.20
Just Josie 1.5 out to 2.02

15.50
Surf And Turf 3.9 out to 4.7
Sawago 6.7 in to 4.6

16.20
Ya Hafed 5.1 in to 4.1
Refusal 5.9 out to 11.5

Southwell
13.30
Sistine 3.9 out to 6.2
Teutonic Knight 30.0 in to 10.5

14.00
Magic Millie 6.4 in to 3.6

14.30
Pick A Little 3.5 in to 2.44
Malcheek 3.25 out to 4.6
Imprimis Tagula 4.6 out to 7.6

15.00
Dubai Sunshine 4.3 in to 3.1
Zenaad 24.0 in to 9.6

15.30
Fantasy Fry 5.5 in to 3.2
Pulsatilla 19.0 in to 10.5

16.00
Soopacal 5.8 in to 4.1
Punching 8.8 in to 6.2

16.30
Gracies Gift 5.7 out to 9.0
Bond Blade 13.0 in to 8.8

Taunton
13.40
Sparkling Air 26.0 in to 13.0

14.10
Alwaary 7.8 in to 6.2
Constant Contact 8.4 out to 14.0

14.40
Sanctuaire 1.81 out to 2.36
Easter Meteor 3.4 in to 2.68

15.10
Aather 12.5 in to 8.6
Monetary Fund 9.0 out to 12.0

15.40
Val Mondo 4.7 in to 3.4
Oneforfun 10.0 in to 5.9

16.10
Renard 5.6 in to 4.6
Nomecheki 11.0 in to 6.8
Humbel Ben 12.5 in to 8.0
Star Galaxy 5.5 out to 9.8
Wessex King 7.4 out to 11.5

16.40
Vic Ar Aghaidh 7.0 in to 4.4
Go Annie 9.0 in to 5.9

All the early price movements on Betfair's racing markets....

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Ffos Las and Leopardstown...

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Cheltenham, Doncaster, Lingfield, Uttoxeter and Leopardstown...

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Timeform Daily: Tuesday, Taunton 15:10

Race of the Day / Timeform / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Taunton is the venue for Tuesday's Race of the Day.

"A mark of 120 could easily underestimate smart Flat performer Ted Spread, and he can go in at the second time of asking for Paul Nicholls..."

Timeform preview an excellent handicap hurdle at Taunton on Tuesday...

Grey Gold was a Hereford novice hurdle winner last season who took form to new level when making winning reappearance in 17f Bangor handicap in November. This tougher off 9 lb higher but could have more to give.

Monetary Fund is a fairly useful hurdler who largely performed with credit in some competitive handicaps for Nicky Henderson last term. Returns to track with his new yard in form and no shock if he goes close.

Pantxoa has still not got many miles on the clock and returned with a pair of good placed efforts in competitive 2m handicap hurdles. Excuses can be made for latest run and no surprise if he bounces back.

Pascha Bere is a useful hurdler who made a pleasing return to action when fourth to Featherbed Lane at Ascot. Excuses for both runs since (given plenty to do last time) and chances are he remains in form.

Ted Spread was smart on the Flat up to 1¾m for Mark Tompkins. Promise both starts over hurdles, joining Paul Nicholls before second to Grumeti over C&D last month. Tongue tied now and almost certainly more to come.

Ifyouletmefinish is a bumper winner who has shaped with promise when placed in pair of novice hurdles over C&D in recent weeks, chasing home smart Pearl Swan last time. Another who could easily have more to give.

Aather is a pretty useful hurdler on his day. Edged down weights after a winless 2010/11 campaign for Alan Fleming and should be sharper for last month's return. Yard off cold list at Wincanton recently.

Wings of Smoke progressed well over hurdles last summer, winning novice at Aintree and fourth in Hexham handicap. Travelled well long way under testing conditions on recent return and this test more suitable.

Double Handful was fair on the Flat and switch to Lawney Hill has seen him translate that to hurdles, bolting up twice this month (C&D first occasion). Higher mark in stronger race demands more but could be up to it.

Sacrilege is an ungenuine hurdler who ran respectably when third in 2m Newbury handicap last March. No impact on recent return from break at Sandown, though, and likely to find this too competitive.

Bathwick Brave finished placed in both outings in bumpers and on 3 of 4 starts in novice hurdles. Didn't seem to face a visor when well beaten on recent handicap bow and no surprise to see headgear off now. Still early days.

Cantabilly has found winning difficult in recent times and fact he was only third in a claimer over C&D last time suggests he's likely to find it tough going back in a competitive handicap.

Leopard Hills' 4 wins over hurdles have come in selling company. Well held in handicap over C&D a month ago and same fate awaits here in all probability.

Piroulet is an ex-French gelding who held every chance when jockey caught unawares on run-in at Exeter a year ago. Not progressed since, including in blinkers on recent handicap bow. Tongue tie also added now.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Ted Spread
2. Double Handful
3. Monetary Fund

Timeform Verdict: A rise in the weights shouldn't prevent Double Handful from going close in his hat-trick bid but a mark of 120 could easily underestimate smart Flat performer Ted Spread, and he can go in at the second time of asking for Paul Nicholls. Monetary Fund and Pantxoa also make the shortlist.

Timeform take a look at the runners in this handicap hurdle over an extended three mile at Plumpton......

Timeform takes a look over a small but select field for the Irish Champion Hurdle, the second Grade 1 on Leopardstown's Sunday card......

Timeform run the rule over the three-mile handicap hurdle at Ffos Las......

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Handicappers' Corner: Big Buck's vs Hurricane Fly

The Cheltenham Festival / Phil Turner / 30 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Big Buck's vs Hurricane Fly would be a match to savour.

"As the ratings imply, Big Buck's would just get our vote, particularly as he looked every bit as good as ever when stretching his unbeaten record to fifteen..."

Racing For Change's main aim is to "broaden the appeal of the sport". The scheme's decision-makers could do a lot worse than put the feelers out to stage a match between the two outstanding hurdlers of the moment, argues Timeform jumps handicapper Phil Turner...

Both Hurricane Fly (Timeform rating h174) and Big Buck's (h176+) enhanced their reputations with imperious displays this weekend and, should they retain their respective Champion Hurdle and World Hurdle crowns as expected at the Cheltenham Festival in March, a mouth-watering clash between the pair would surely be what most racing fans would wish for before the season is out.

Indeed, history is littered with examples of how you cannot beat a good head-to-head to broaden interest in a sport. For example, worldwide news bulletins were dominated by chess (yes CHESS!) during the summer of 1972 as the much-anticipated world championship match between maverick young American Bobby Fischer and reigning champion Boris Spassky took place, with the former striking a blow for the Western World at the height of the Cold War as he wrested the title away from the Soviet Union for the first time in twenty-five years.

Some twelve months later, the American public were gripped by another high-profile sports talking point when retired tennis pro Bobby Riggs challenged the two leading female players of the day, Margaret Court and Billie-Jean King, to a "Battle of The Sexes" contest in a chauvinistic attempt to expose the weakness of the women's game. Fifty-five-year-old Riggs defeated Court 6-2 6-1, but then lost to King 4-6 3-6 3-6 in a match which was televised live nationally.

A closer example to any proposed Hurricane Fly-Big Buck's match came in 1997 when the reigning 100m and 200m Olympic champions, Donovan Bailey and Michael Johnson, met in a specially staged 150m race (75m curve and 75m straight) to decide who was the "World's Fastest Man". Unfortunately the race proved to be something of a damp squib, with Johnson pulling up "injured" once clearly held by Bailey.

A similar scenario befell "The Great International Race" at Belmont Park in 1923 between Zev and Papyrus, winners of that year's Kentucky Derby and Epsom Derby respectively, which proved a disappointingly one-sided affair due to the British raider failing to handle the unfamiliar dirt underfoot conditions.

Matches in horse-racing can work, however. An estimated forty million radio listeners tuned in to hear commentary of the "Match of The Century" between Seabiscuit and War Admiral at Pimlico in 1938, the events of which proved the centrepiece of a best-selling book and hit movie early in the 21st Century. Meanwhile, there was also huge interest in National Hunt's finest match to date, which came at the Punchestown Festival in 1986 when Irish racing authorities stumped up the bulk of a sizeable pot to attract a clash between that year's Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Dawn Run and Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Buck House.

Dawn Run won that particular "Battle of The Sexes" despite eschewing her usual mares' allowance to race at level weights and also dropping down to two miles. No such gimmicks would be required for any Hurricane Fly-Big Buck's clash, with the intermediate trip of two-and-a-half miles surely a fair compromise for both. So who would win?

As the ratings imply, Big Buck's would just get our vote, particularly as he looked every bit as good as ever when stretching his unbeaten record to fifteen with a seven-length defeat of Dynaste (h160) at Cheltenham on Saturday. If anything, though, Hurricane Fly was even more impressive when making light of rain-drenched conditions to beat Oscars Well (h164) by a cosy six-and-a-half lengths in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown twenty-four hours later, his performance all the more meritorious given it came after months of rumours and speculation as to his well-being. Perhaps the most pertinent question should any such match materialise is which of the pair would their regular pilot Ruby Walsh choose?

Unfortunately, one clash which won't be taking place (at Cheltenham at least) in the near future is that of Flemenstar (c153p) against the leading British-trained two-mile chasers Al Ferof (c161), Sprinter Sacre (154p), Cue Card (c154) and Peddlers Cross (c150p).

Flemenstar simply hasn't looked back since finishing runner-up to Bog Warrior (c154) on his chasing debut back in the autumn and confirmed himself a top-class prospect with a runaway win in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown on Sunday, but he'll reportedly be kept to Irish soil for the time being due to concerns about him being a bad traveller.

There are no such fears with regards to Boston Bob (h154p), who'll take plenty of beating in either the Neptune Novices' Hurdle or the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham - indeed, Fingal Bay (h156p) is the only novice so far in 2011/12 to have bettered the form Boston Bob showed when winning a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on Sunday. He certainly makes more appeal at this stage than Batonnier (h135p), who showed a likeable attitude to win another Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham's Trials Day, yet will need to improve if he's to have place claims at the Festival.

Meanwhile, almost identical comments apply to Saturday's big race winner Midnight Chase (c162), who bounced back to his best to record a fifth Cheltenham success in the Argento Chase, but his two-and-a-quarter length defeat of the quirky Tidal Bay (c160$) is unlikely to have connections of Long Run (c182) or Kauto Star (c181) losing any sleep.

The Alan King-trained Montbazon got back to winning ways at Plumpton on Monday......

Diamond Harry will be checked out for a possible breathing problem after his run at Cheltenham on Saturday......

Henrietta Knight is leaving a decision on Somersby's Cheltenham target until as late as possible because of the unpredictability of the British weather......

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Opta Stats: More joy for Arsenal goal machine away to Bolton

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Two penalties against Aston Villa extended Robin van Persie's fine run

"Robin van Persie has scored 20 goals in his last 20 Premier League away appearances."

The Opta trends for the midweek Premier League games suggest that Robin van Persie will deliver again, while Danny Graham, Tim Cahill and Darren Bent all look good scorer bets...

Swansea v Chelsea (Tuesday, 19:45)
Danny Graham has scored in four of his last six Premier League starts at the Liberty Stadium
A slow start appeared to justify concerns that the former Watford striker would struggle to step up to the Premier League, but seven in 17 starts is a respectable return at a promoted club. The last of those, a winner against Arsenal, was arguably the most important of all, and showed that he can be relied upon on occasions like this.
Recommended Bet: Graham to score @ [3.9]

Everton v Manchester City (Tuesday, 20:00, Sky Sports 2)
Only Aston Villa (6) have been on the wrong end of more Tim Cahill goals in the Premier League than Man City (five)
Despite his position, Cahill is often Everton's shortest-priced player to score - a situation that may be remedied by the anticipated arrival of Nikica Jelavic - so his recent 13-month goal drought hit the Toffees hard. The Australian finally found the net in their last league game though, and the timing of his resurgence will unnerve Roberto Mancini.
Recommended Bet: Cahill to score @ [5.6]

Aston Villa v QPR (Wednesday, 19:45)
Darren Bent has scored three goals in his last four Premier League appearances and has netted 99 Premier League goals in total
It hasn't felt like a vintage season for Bent and yet his gift for hitting the target is so great that he has still managed to post a strike rate of close to a goal every other match. The England international is currently enjoying his most sustained scoring streak of the campaign, firing his last three outings, so will be optimistic of completing his century.
Recommended Bet: Bent to score @ [2.4]

Bolton v Arsenal (Wednesday, 20:00)
Robin van Persie has scored 20 goals in his last 20 Premier League away appearances
The Premier League's leading marksman attracted headlines for the wrong reasons in the FA Cup at the weekend, but even then grabbed a brace. He has scored 19 in 21 league starts and failed to notch in just four of his last 14 games in all competitions, so should pose plenty of problems for a Bolton defence clean sheet-less in 11.
Recommended Bet: van Persie to score @ [2.1]

Click here to access dozens more priceless Opta statistics

After analysing all of the Opta stats and picking out his four favourites, Michael Lintorn is backing Wolves, Blackburn and Sunderland to enjoy midweek home wins......

Two of the most impressive teams in the Premier League over the last few months collide in front of the TV cameras at the Stadium of Light......

Arsenal desperately need to see the back of a dire run of three straight defeats when they make the trip up to improving Bolton......

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Southwell

Going Report / Editor / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Racecourse: Southwell
First Race Time: 1.30pm
Going: Standard
Other Information: Dry overnight

Racecourse: Taunton First Race Time: 13:40 Going: Good to Soft, Soft in places Other Information: Dry overnight. -1.9ºC at 6.40am but no problems anticipated at this stage....

Racecourse: Folkestone First Race Time: 13:50 Going: Chase course - Good Hurdle course - Good to Soft, Soft in places Other Information: RACING GOES AHEAD. 0ºC overnight. Cloudy today with temperature 3ºC....

Racecourse Ayr First Race Time 12.50pm Going Soft, Heavy in places Other Information RACING GOES AHEAD. 0.2mm of rain in the last 24 hours. -1ºC overnight, +1ºC at 6.30am. Temperature forecast to rise from 10am to a maximum of 4ºC....

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Qatar Masters: Bjorn again for the Punter

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Thomas Bjorn, looking to double up at Doha

“The forecast suggests an early start on Thursday could be a distinct advantage, so if you haven’t played yet, make sure you bear that in mind.”

It's going to be a blustery week in Qatar, so who has the best draw? And what does it take to win around Doha? Read Steve's event preview here...

Tournament
This will be the 15th staging of the Commercialbank Qatar Masters, the middle leg of the Race to Dubai's Middle East swing.

Venue
Doha Golf Club, Qatar

Course Details
Par 72, 7388 yards. Like last week's venue, Doha was also designed by Peter Harradine. Punter's may want to keep a close eye on the weather forecast, the wind plays a big part in the outcome of the tournament and those drawn in the afternoon on day one last year were severely hampered. Runner-up, Alvaro Quiros, playing in the very worst of the winds and was five over par at one stage on day one. I'd shown my hand before the draw was made and I've one pick with a good draw and one with a poor one, but the forecast suggests an early start on Thursday could be a distinct advantage, so if you haven't played yet, make sure you bear that in mind. The rough is even less penal this year because of the forecast windy conditions.

Useful Sites

www.dohagolfclub.com

www.qatar-masters.com

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Doha/forecasts/latest

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days - starting 7.00am Thursday and Friday, 9.30am Saturday and 8.30am on Sunday

Last five winners
2011 - Thomas Bjorn -14
2010 - Robert Karlsson -15
2009 - Alvaro Quiros -19
2008 - Adam Scott -20
2007 - Retief Goosen -15

Typical Winner
As is so often the case, the most important stat here is Greens In Regulation. Unlike last week, Driving Accuracy isn't crucial at all. The plan here is fairly simple, bang it a long way off the tee, find the green and get hot with the putter. Although only Adam Scott has been successful more than once here, the same players tend to contend and conversely, some players just don't seem to get it. Martin Kaymer's record is lamentable and Rory McIlroy hasn't been back after a couple of fruitless visits.

Market Leaders
Lee Westwood has a fine record at Doha without winning but he was carrying an injury last week and that's more than enough to put me off. Sergio Garcia also has bits and pieces of form here but he's plenty short enough for my liking. Graeme McDowell and Martin Kaymer are the next two in the list and of the two, I much prefer G-Mac. He didn't look miles off last week whereas Kaymer was awful. As previously stated, the German's record here is poor too.

Selections
I picked out Alvaro Quiros as a pick here at the end of last year. Put simply, he's a no-brainer bet, especially now he has an advantageous early start on Thursday. He won the event three years ago and he's finished runner-up in each of the last two years. He missed the cut last week but he's never got to grips with Abu Dhabi and I'm happy to dismiss that performance. Hopefully, it's given him the opportunity to blow away a bit of rust and us a chance to get a better price here. I'd have gladly taken [16.0] and was delighted to get on at an average of [19.5].

Last year's winner, Thomas Bjorn, hasn't looked back since success here, challenging hard at the Open Championship and winning a couple more times on the Race to Dubai. He won comfortably last year (four strokes) and played very well last week. For once, Thomas isn't overlooked in the market but I still wanted him onside. Unfortunately his afternoon draw on Thursday isn't anywhere near as favourable as Alvaro's morning one.

Qatar Masters Selections
Alvaro Quiros @ an average of [19.5]
Thomas Bjorn @ [26.0]

I'll be back later with a preview of the US Tour's event, the WM Phoenix Open, and I'll kick off the In-Play Blog on either Thursday or Friday.

As if there wasn't enough drama in Abu Dhabi, with Robert Rock holding Tiger Woods and Co at bay, last night's Farmers Insurance Open produced an unbelievable finish......

Tiger Woods is back, but can he finish the job off tomorrow? With a round to go, Steve's picked out three players at tasty prices, just in case he can't......

Our man runs the rule over this week's PGA Tour action, where Phil Mickelson will be trying to make up for last year's near miss. Read Steve's thoughts here......

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Red Mills Chase: Rubi heads to Gowran

The Cheltenham Festival / Timeform / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Rubi Light will run at Gowran before Cheltenham.

"He doesn't need long coming out of his races. He did the same last year..."

Trainer Robbie Hennessy will follow a tried-and-tested route by running Rubi Light at Gowran before heading to Cheltenham...

The seven-year-old won the Red Mills Chase in 2011 on the way to finishing third to Albertas Run in the Ryanair Chase at the Festival.

The two-and-a-half-mile contest on February 18 is again ideal for Hennessy's charge as it comes just less than four weeks before his prime objective.

"We are going to give him a run in Gowran Park on the 18th of February in the Red Mills and that's something to look forward with him first," said County Meath-based Hennessy.

"He won it last year and the weather forecast is bad for the foreseeable future, so I imagine the ground will be testing which would play to his strengths.

"After that we'll just keep him ticking over for Cheltenham.

"He doesn't need long coming out of his races. He did the same last year."

Rubi Light has enjoyed a profitable campaign that has seen him win the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown and finish second in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on his first try over three miles.

Rated 162 by Timeform, Rubi Light can currently be backed at [8.8] for the Ryanair, a marginally bigger price than antepost favourite Noble Prince ([7.8]).

Others to note in the market would be Somersby ([9.6]), Riverside Theatre ([12.0]) and Captain Chris ([17.5]).

Racing For Change's main aim is to "broaden the appeal of the sport". The scheme's decision-makers could do a lot worse than put the feelers out to stage a match between the two outstanding hurdlers of the moment, argues Timeform jumps handicapper Phil Turner......

The Alan King-trained Montbazon got back to winning ways at Plumpton on Monday......

Diamond Harry will be checked out for a possible breathing problem after his run at Cheltenham on Saturday......

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Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Montbazon eases clear at Plumpton

News / Timeform / 30 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Montbazon was successful at Plumpton.

"We won't have learned a lot from that but he's a smashing horse..."

The Alan King-trained Montbazon got back to winning ways at Plumpton on Monday...

Considered a live contender for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham, Montbazon had finished just a length behind Colour Squadron on his first start over hurdles at Newbury in December.

The only brief moment of concern for Wayne Hutchinson was when Montbazon jumped to the right at the third-last and cannoned into Victor Leudorum.

But he quickly recovered to finish 15 lengths in front of that rival.

"We won't have learned a lot from that but he's a smashing horse," said King.

"I'd like to give him a bit more practice and we might look at the Listed hurdle at Exeter in a couple of weeks."

Montbazon is currently trading at [20.0] for the Supreme, with Steps to Freedom heading the market at [9.4]. Cinders and Ashes ([12.0]), Darlan ([12.5]) and Simonsig ([14.5]) are also prominent in the betting.

Diamond Harry will be checked out for a possible breathing problem after his run at Cheltenham on Saturday......

Timeform take a look at a number of three year-old's from the Roger Charlton yard, reviewing what they have achieved to date and what they may go on to accomplish in the coming Flat season......

Timeform look back at a weekend dominated by Cheltenham Trials day on Saturday and some top-class action from Ireland on Sunday, including the return of Champion Hurdler Hurricane Fly......

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African Cup Of Nations Diary: Senegal to sign off with a win

African Cup Of Nations / Jonathan Wilson / 29 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will they finally see their team win?

"Even if Senegal give reserve players a chance against Libya, though, you’d still expect them to have a forward line that can damage Libya – one of the few advantages of bringing seven centre-forwards in the squad."

It's been a disappointing tournament for Senegal but they can make amends by signing off with a win, says Jonathan Wilson

Malabo stands on the north-west tip of Bioko, the main island part of Equatorial Guinea. On the south-west corner is Luba, a small town that feels a bit like Ambleside transplanted to Africa. It's all grey stone, and a small river runs through the centre of it, crossed by a number of quaint bridges. The water is surprisingly clear, affording a perfect view of all the rubbish that lies among the weeds on the bed. Towards the sea, women wash clothes and children paddle.

A little way inland on the main street, the river curves towards the mountainside, leaving a shallow floodplain that is covered in shingle. In the midst of it stands a pedestal, and on that is a bust of Maximiliano Jones. He was a slave trader from Sierra Leone who sold his own brothers, and founded the two sometime in the seventeenth century. Not, you'd think, the kind of man who would normally be celebrated, but his name is dotted about the town. The main hotel, which bears a pleasing resemblance to the African hotel in which Jack Nicholson holes up in Antonioni's film The Passenger, is painted pale blue. It's name? Hotel Jones (pronounced, of course, 'Hoh-ness').

It was in Luba that Equatorial Guinea were supposed to be based, having left the mainland for their final group match, against Zambia. They arrived on Friday, though, took one look at the hotel and decided that after two wins they're worth rather more. Somebody clearly agreed, because they've moved up to Sipopo, a luxury resort a few miles north of Malabo featuring a Sofitel and 52 luxury villas where the respective national presidents stayed during the African Union summit last year.

Zambia, by contrast, seem to have got the rough end of the deal, and on Friday there were training in the dark on the unlit artificial pitch outside the main stadium - a pitch so un-exclusive it's where I go for my morning jog. Equatorial Guinea are already through, and a point will be enough to Zambia, even if Libya beat Senegal.

I'm wary, though, of what team Equatorial Guinea will pick, and how motivated they'll be. Certainly, you imagine, they can't be as lucky again as they were against Senegal. And, equally, Zambia are a better balanced, more coherent side than Senegal - while lacking their forward power - are as such are less likely to offer them the same opportunities. Then there's the issue of the group. The stadium in Malabo has a capacity of only 15,000 and as such clearly won't offer the same level of vocal backing as the 38,000 stadium in Bata.

The other game presents similar difficulties. Libya need to win, but they're a side essentially set up to endure. They scored twice against Zambia, admittedly, but the absence of Khalid El Kharatoushi with a calf injury will cut their creative options even further. Senegal, meanwhile, have essentially gone out of the tournament as a result of a poor first half against Zambia. They were unable to turn that fixture around, and that left them vulnerable to the sort of bad luck that cost them against Equatorial Guinea.

Even if Senegal give reserve players a chance against Libya, though, you'd still expect them to have a forward line that can damage Libya - one of the few advantages of bringing seven centre-forwards in the squad. And, surely, they're due a bit of luck in this tournament.

Recommended Bet
I can see a mutually beneficial draw in the Equatorial Guinea v Zambia game, which would be [2.54], but I'd suggest going for Senegal to pull off a face-saving performance and beat Libya at [2.08]. And if you fancy something more ambitious, maybe Senegal to win both halves at [8.0]: if they get ahead early, they could pick Libya apart on the break.

Libya are likely to leave more space at the back than usual and Tobias Gourlay thinks Senegal's strikers will finally start shooting straight...

The market thinks Equatorial Guinea and Zambia might settle for a draw in Malabo, but Tobias Gourlay has found reasons to believe otherwise...

Guinea are deservedly backed by the market going into this crucial Group D clash, writes James Eastham....

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Market Movers: Sunday January 29

Market Movers / Editor / 29 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Ffos Las and Leopardstown

Ffos Las
13:15
One Term 3.45 in to 2.74
Seventh Sky 7.8 out to 17.0

13:45
Rowlestone Lad 2.96 in to 2.58

14:20
Hows Business 1.3 out to 1.62
Alexander Road 5.5 in to 4.1

14:55
The Tatkin 4.5 out to 7.4
Taranteeno 7.2 in to 5.4
Bendant 8.0 in to 6.4
Al Shababiya 7.6 out to 10.5
Seymour Eric 20.0 in to 13.5

15:25
Bring On The Judge 4.7 in to 3.2

16:00
Normally 2.3 out to 3.55
Turbulance 4.7 out to 5.9
Oran Flyer 4.9 out to 7.8
Backstreet Billy 8.0 in to 5.0

Leopardstown
12:55
Thomas Edison 4.4 in to 3.0
Burn And Turn 3.1 out to 4.8
Tennis Cap 3.15 out to 4.9
Protaras 25.0 in to 14.0

13:25
Blackstairmountain 2.42 out to 2.8
Flemenstar 3.15 in to 2.84
Foildubh 19.0 out to 40.0

13:55
Lukes Benefit 3.95 out to 5.3
Senior Again 5.4 in to 4.6
Jigalo 9.2 in to 6.6

14:30
Hurricane Fly 1.4 out to 1.64
Unaccompanied 5.6 in to 4.8

15:05
Make Your Mark 2.86 out to 3.2

15:35
Alfa Beat 5.7 out to 6.8
Apache Drums 19.0 in to 8.0

16:10
Magic Spear 4.98 in to 3.48

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Cheltenham, Doncaster, Lingfield, Uttoxeter and Leopardstown...

This evening's market movers from Dundalk and Wolverhampton......

This afternoon's market movers from Fontwell, Huntingdon and Lingfield......

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TVG Blinkers Off: With Timeform's Jamie Lynch

Jamie Lynch / Timeform / 29 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Black Caviar: Second only to Frankel in Timeform's Global rankings

Timeform's Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch joins TVG's Matt Carothers on the latest edition of Blinkers Off...

Topics up for discussion include Black Caviar, who recently took her unbeaten run to 17 and could be on course for a trip to the UK in the summer, the $10million Dubai World Cup run at Meydan racecourse on March 31 and Timeform's Global Rankings for 2011, which saw Henry Cecil's unbeaten superstar Frankel rated 143...

The big issue this weekend was supposed to be Grands Crus, and his chance on the ratings is still worth discussing says Jamie Lynch, but stay tuned until the end because he thinks he's found the winner anyway....

Is there room for another reality show? Timeform's Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch says yes as he takes a look at the big race of the weekend......

Can racing take a leaf out of football's book? Jamie Lynch thinks so, as he proposes a new cup competition, besides taking a look at the big race of the weekend....

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Nick Shiambouros' Patented 80/20 Bet: Sedgefield, 13:05

80/20 / Nick Shiambouros / 29 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Hurdles debut for today's selection - will it be a winning start over obstacles?

Today's 80/20 is Purcell's Bridge in the 13:05 at Sedgefield.

This gelding finished fifth to Coneygree at Uttoxeter last November. He made good progress two furlongs from home and kept on well all the way to the line. I think he has ability and could run well at a decent price on his hurdles debut. At present he is trading at [9.0] on the exchange.

Nick's selection is crying out to be backed this afternoon, but who's he on?...

We're at Newcastle today for our 80/20 bet but will Nick's selection end up bathed in glory?...

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