The Joker's Bet of the Day: Leaping for joy in south Yorkshire

The Joker's Bet Of The Day / The Joker / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.77] in Sheffield United v Scunthorpe

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way...

A Bradley Wright-Phillips hat-trick?

Really?

The Joker's been robbed, you might say.

As the world recovers its senses, there will hopefully be no after-shocks. Not in Yorkshire, at least, where 13 of Sheffield United's 16 home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals. The same's happened in three of Scunthorpe's last five on the road.

Opportunities like this don't come around every year.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.77] in Sheffield United v Scunthorpe

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

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Follow The Money: Mabel's able...

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will our Folkestone fancies come through?

"With a return to a forecast sounder surface she should go close to breaking her duck today."

Today's FTM selections come from the cards at Folkestone and Southwell.

We start at Southwell with today's negative, Ring Bo Bee, who has drifted out to [3.1] from [2.46] to win the 2m4f Handicap Chase at 14:00.

A small field lines up here and the recent form of the four runners suggests that this is between two horses, Ring Bo Bee and Milgen Bay.

After improving throughout the season, Ring Bo Bee finally broke his duck over fences last time out over course and distance, having being allowed to dictate matters. He is still open to improvement in this sphere but in market favourite Milgen Bay he encounters a rival who is also unexposed over fences and will not let him have his own way up front. The selection may have to settle for second best today.

Down to Folkestone now and in the 2m4f Mares' Novices' Hurdle at 14:45 there has been solid support for Mabel Tasman who has shortened in to [3.7] from an early [6.2]. She showed a fair amount of promise in four bumper runs and seems to have carried it over to hurdles. She started with a decent fourth at Exeter in early November then improved markedly for that effort with a good second behind a well-regarded Nicholls sort at Wincanton a couple of weeks later. The one run since came on unsuitably soft ground and she can be forgiven that effort. With a return to a forecast sounder surface she should go close to breaking her duck today.

Our final selection is also at Folkestone in the 3m7f Kent National at 16:15 where there has been steady money for Upham Atom who price has contracted in to [6.2] from [14.0].

He has not shown much in four starts this season, most recently in similar company to today, but for the first time this season he is tackling an extreme trip which, on last season's form, is what he needs. A winner over 3m2f at Exeter last March he followed that up with a good second in better company over 3m4f at Wincanton in April. He is now 3lbs lower for that effort and with some known front runners in opposition today they should ensure it is a test and a bold showing could be on the cards.

Recommended Bets
Lay Ring Bo Bee @ [3.1] Southwell 14:00
Back Mabel Tasman @ [3.7] Folkestone 14:45
Back Upham Atom @ [6.2] Folkestone 16:15

Today's movers come from Catterick and Lingfield....

Welcome to follow the money for Monday February 27. Today's movers are from the cards at Plumpton and Wolverhampton....

Two backs and one lay as ever. Amongst those you want to be with is Seabass, who has a great chance in the 16:05 at Naas and will be in the expert hands of Ruby Walsh....

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Neptune Novices' Hurdle: Fingal Bay ruled out of Festival

News / Timeform / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Fingal Bay will miss Cheltenham.

"Unfortunately time has beaten us and Fingal Bay won't make Cheltenham..."

Philip Hobbs has admitted defeat in the race to get Fingal Bay to the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival...

The unbeaten six-year-old, rated 156p by Timeform, suffered a setback last week and while the injury is only minor, it has come at the wrong time of the season.

Having been ante-post favourite for the race for most of the season, the news is another blow for punters after the likes of Grandouet and Minsk were ruled out of their respective targets in recent days.

"Unfortunately time has beaten us and Fingal Bay won't make Cheltenham," said Hobbs.

"Thankfully, it is not a serious problem which is the silver lining as we'll have him for Aintree and Punchestown.

"He just needs another week which we haven't got."

Simonsig now heads the market for the Neptune at [4.9], but there is still a possibility that he will run in the Supreme, for which he can be backed at [16.5]. Boston Bob, who heads the Albert Bartlett market, is currently trading at [5.3] for the Neptune with Monksland third-best at [8.8].

For the second year running there has been an above average winner of the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield with the unbeaten More Than Ready filly Samaready dominating last Saturday's field....

Cirrus Des Aigles will step up his preparations for next month's Dubai World Cup night with a run in the Prix Meydan Hotel at Chantilly on Saturday......

Nicky Henderson is predicting an ultra-close fifth clash between Long Run and Kauto Star in the Gold Cup......

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Nick Shiambouros' Patented 80/20 Bet: Folkestone, 14:45

80/20 / Nick Shiambouros / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

We're at Folkestone today for our daily 80/20 selection but who is Nick showing faith in?

Today's 80/20 is Mabel Tasman in the 14.45 at Folkestone.

This mare was pulled up in a race won by Native Gallery at Aintree last December. She never appeared happy in the testing conditions and was struggling some way from home. But she had previously finished a decent second to Rolling Aces at Wincanton in November, which reads well in the context of this race. I think she will run well at a fair price today. At present she is trading at [5.1] on the exchange.

We're at Catterick today for Nick's 80/20 bet but who is he backing for success?...

Nick explains why he expects today's 80/20 to get the week off to a winning start......

Will Nick's selection put on a good 'show' this afternoon?...

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Market Movers: Wednesday February 29

Market Movers / Editor / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Bangor, Folkestone and Southwell

Bangor
14:20
Native Beauty 2.86 out to 3.45
Golden Firebird 2.78 out to 3.55

14:55
Kauto Relko 2.82 out to 3.35

15:25
Big Easy 3.8 in to 2.9
Cantlow 8.6 in to 7.0
Timesawastin 11.0 out to 16.5

15:55
Valley View 1.9 out to 2.18

16:25
Dawn Commander 5.6 in to 4.2
Cloudy Too 13.0 in to 9.0

16:55
Share Option 7.2 out to 10.5
Ajzal 9.4 out to 14.0

17:25
Dalaver 2.52 out to 3.65
Imperial Leader 9.0 in to 4.1

Folkestone
14:10
Marcus Antonius 11.5 in to 9.2
Chasing Aces 20.0 out to 32.0

14:45
Mabel Tasman 6.2 in to 4.0
Steady Girlfriend 4.1 out to 5.4

15:15
Knock Boy 2.02 out to 2.54

15:45
Outside The Box 9.2 in to 6.2
Royal Riviera 17.5 in to 11.5

16:15
Wide Receiver 4.0 in to 3.5
Upham Atom 14.0 in to 6.4

16:45
Commander kev 5.4 in to 4.4

17:15
Move Along 6.6 out to 9.0

Southwell
14:00
Ring Bo Re 2.42 out to 3.05

14:35
Tears From Heaven 2.87 out to 5.4
Raphiell 7.65 in to 5.3
Amazing Valour 15.94 in to 8.6

15:05
Kudu Country 1.38 in to 1.31

15:35
Solaras Exhibition 4.9 in to 2.92
Donatorio 2.16 out to 3.35

16:05
Bardolet 4.9 in to 4.0
Wiesentraum 8.6 in to 6.4
Cardinal Rose 4.8 out to 7.8

16:35
Royal Entourage 4.28 in to 3.6
Mrs Peacock 8.75 in to 6.4
Sam Doc 5.73 out to 11.5
Cruising Bye 22.36 in to 10.0

17:05
Deed Of Gift 2.72 out to 3.6

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Catterick, Leicester and Lingfield...

This afternoon's market movers from Plumpton and Wolverhampton......

All the early movers from Betfair's racing markets....

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Timeform US SmartPlays: Wednesday February 29

Timeform US SmartPlays / Timeform / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Timeform's US team highlight three SmartPlays to back in North America this evening...

Aqueduct race 5 (19:52 GMT) win back #5 GOTOGO BYE at [3.6] or longer

Charles Town race 1 (00:15 GMT) win back #1 BACKINTHECOTTON at [3.2] or longer

Charles Town race 6 (02:34 GMT) win back #6 DANGEROUS VIXEN at [3.2] or longer

Click HERE to read Timeform's new weekly series, profiling the top dozen contenders for the Kentucky Derby.

Timeform's US team highlight a further three SmartPlays for Tuesday evening......

Following two successful bets from three yesterday, Timeform's US team are hoping for a full house from this evening's trio of SmartPlays......

After three successful selections yesterday, at BSPs of [3.39], [3.09] and [2.59], Timeform's US team highlight a further three SmartPlays for this evening......

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What if Tendulkar's hundredth 100 never comes?

Bat and ball / Ralph Ellis / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Another chance gone. Sachin Tendulkar is out to his Mumbai Indians team-mate Lasith Malinga and the wait for his 100th 100 goes on.

"You start to wonder if it will ever happen, though. Just as Gary Lineker missed the penalty that should have tied him with Bobby Charlton at the top of the all-time England goalscoring charts, so it seems Tendulkar could also miss out on a record everybody thought would be his."

It's now over a year since Sachin Tendulkar struck his 99th international century but the 100th is yet to come. And as the matches go by, the Little Master and his billion plus fans must be doubting whether it will ever come, says Ralph Ellis.

All top cricketers know about the nervous nineties. One minute they are batting freely, effortlessly hitting fours or sixes and seeing what is normally a small, red cricket ball like it was a giant beach ball. The next they are scratching for a single or two to push and prod their way to the magic three figures.

It's why the first international century is the hardest to get. The nerves kick in and however much you are trying to bat for the team, it has suddenly become an individual sport. Get there once and it becomes far simpler to pass the milestone again.
But what if, like Sachin Tendulkar, you are trying to reach the 100th hundred? Then, it seems, you go right back to the beginning and the nerves take over like a novice.

It's nearly a year now since the Little Master made it to 99 with an imperious display against South Africa in a World Cup group game. We all thought it was written in the stars that he'd wait until India were at Lord's for a Test last summer to reach the milestone, but Stuart Broad and Jimmy Anderson put paid to that. And so it has gone on. Until today Tendulkar, who wasn't expected to play in the Asia Cup at the end of March, has had a change of heart and been included in India's squad to give him yet another chance to get that very elusive ton.

You start to wonder if it will ever happen, though. Just as Gary Lineker missed the penalty that should have tied him with Bobby Charlton at the top of the all-time England goalscoring charts, so it seems Tendulkar could also miss out on a record everybody thought would be his.

Tendulkar's inclusion and the fervour it will create means India will be favourites for the Asia Cup, but the competition will be strong. Pakistan are bound to benefit from the arrival of new head coach Dav Whatmore, who has the perfect credentials to add structure to a team that has plenty of talent. And Sri Lanka, with the inimitable talents of Tillakaratne Dilshan - who scored a magnificent 160 not out against the Indians in the Commonwealth Bank tournament yesterday, will always be a force.

Certainly England coach Andy Flower won't have enjoyed watching the sort of form that Dilshan displayed in Hobart - even if he might have been more encouraged at their poor bowling, as Virat Kohli crashed the way to a winning score of 321 with more than 13 overs to spare.

After rightly being lauded for his leadership in winning the Ashes in Australia, then moving to the top of the world rankings, Flower is under pressure for the first time. He's axed Eoin Morgan from his squad that will tour Sri Lanka once the Asia Cup is over, and turned to Samit Patel in the search for a new number six.

England are [2.98] favourites to win the first Test, but much will depend on whether Flower, after admitting he got the preparation for the Pakistan series wrong, has learned lessons from that. There will be tricky spin to deal with again, and this time England must have an answer.

After all, nothing in sport comes easily. Just ask Tendulkar.

Five things you might not know about Dav Whatmore

1. Born March 1954 in Colombo, Sri Lanka, he taught himself to bat by throwing a ball against a wall before hitting it because his two sisters wouldn't play cricket with him.

2.When he was eight the family emigrated to Australia and moved to Melbourne. He went to Mentone Grammer School, but developed a stutter as a reaction to bullying because he was an Asian.

3.He scored more than 6,000 runs for Victoria but played only seven Tests for Australia during the Kerry Packer era and his top score was 78. He says now: "I had the talent to be a top player but not the application. I wish I'd had a coach like me at that time."

4.His most famous achievement as a coach might have been Sri Lanka's 1996 World Cup win, but he was also the man in charge of Lancashire's one-day double winning team two years later.

5.He says he has many heroes but has only ever asked for one autograph - when he met Posh Spice, aka Victoria Beckham, and his daughter Alexandra insisted he come home with her signature.

Pakistan Cricket captain Misbah-ul-Haq is receiving undeserved heat for his leadership of the team in the wake of poor ODI and Twenty20 performances - but the clamour for a showman uncovers poor judgement from media and fans alike, says Frank...

We all thought Ricky Ponting was dead and buried after losing the captaincy and a poor series in South Africa. But the Tasmanian is made of pretty stern stuff and England may not have seen the last of him with...

Virender Sehwag overtook Sachin Tendulkar's 200 as he smashed 219 to set a new world record for the highest individual score in an ODI....

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Bangor back bets

Timeform Radio Tip / Terry Norman / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Today's success or failure revolves around a pair of Hobbs' horses

"While I may not fancy Big Easy in the 15:25 I do think that Philip Hobbs will saddle a winner with the resurgent Lord Crewe in the 16:25 at Bangor. "

Terry Norman picks a pair to follow in Wales today where Philip Hobbs' horses will play a pivotal role

Big Easy is certain to attract plenty of support in the 2m 4f handicap at Bangor-on-Dee (15:25) after an impressive victory over the same trip at Doncaster where Philip Hobbs' five-year-old strode clear from the last to score by just over a length. Big Easy has an obvious chance but he has been raised 13lbs and can ill-afford to make the sloppy mistakes he made en route to success.

Instead I prefer the chance of Cantlow. Paul Webber's son of Kayf Tara ran a fine race when chasing home the well handicapped Poungach at Sandown. It was his best display since a second to Saint Are at Aintree last spring in a Grade 1 contest.

The ease in class and the drop to 2m 4f are two pluses. There is also plenty of pace in the event to enable Dominic Elsworth to settle the hard-pulling Cantlow.

While I may not fancy Big Easy I do think that Philip Hobbs will saddle a winner with the resurgent Lord Crewe in the 16:25 at Bangor. The nine-year-old is approaching his form of two years ago after a long lay-off through injury.

After a win on his comeback, Lord Crewe nearly completed a double from a 8lb higher mark from a nigh impossible position at Taunton. Only fifth jumping the final flight, Lord Crewe rallied powerfully to get within a length of the winner, Fox Appeal, who is earmarked for the Albert Bartlett at the Festival.

Lord Crewe is likely to hit a flat spot in the race - he did in both his last two contests - but there is a plethora of pace in the event to bring his limitless stamina into play.

Recommended Bets
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104995557&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104995561&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013

David Cleary makes the case for a couple of promising runners at decent odds on Tuesday afternoon......

Paul Smith supplies two bets for Monday afternoon and explains how you can get your week off to a sweet start......

Coughing in Paul Nicholls' yard, backing the horses of out-of-form trainers to come good and taking on one of the Queen's horses at odds-on. Rory Delargy explains all....

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Honda Classic: Fowler heads the three-ball bets on day one

Three Ball Bets / Dan Geraghty / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Rickie Fowler has lost none of his style but does his sound game remain?

"Graeme McDowell is based in Orlando and if past results are anything to go by, will certainly find this week's set up and conditions more to his liking than last week in Arizona.

Just as it was looking rosy for Dan Geraghty along came the World Matchplay to wipe out a promising P&L - can he turn it around at this week's Honda Classic? Here are the three musketeers he's hoping can swashbuckle him back into profit

Well, last week was a disaster to say the least and killed the P&L. I console myself slightly in the fact that some of the shrewdest golf punters I know struggled as much as I did.

This week the PGA Tour rolls into Florida for the Honda Classic.

Robert Allenby put in a fine performance in a poor field at last week's Mayakoba Golf Classic but ultimately he may struggle to come to terms with the defeat. Standing on the final tee Allenby had the tournament won but ruined his flawless card with an ugly double bogey to lose out to Korean-American John Huh. On Thursday the Australian is partnered by D A Points and Graeme McDowell [2.6] whose last round here was a 64. The Northern Irishman is based in Orlando and if past results are anything to go by, will certainly find this week's set up and conditions more to his liking than last week in Arizona.

Last week Rickie Fowler [2.3] was narrowly beaten by David Toms but finished so well that I'm happy to take him to beat an out of sorts KT Kim, who hasn't played here before and Boo Weekley who has been struggling with his game for a while now and has not enjoyed the Honda since his playoff defeat in 2007.

Ben Crane's [2.6] stroke average around here reads well (69.13 for eight rounds). Third on his last appearance at the Honda (2009), Crane's first day opponents look highly beatable. Freddie Jacobson has had a very slow start to the year due to torn ligaments in his left thumb - the Swede struggling badly when losing to Robert Karlsson in the first round of the Matchplay last week - and Mr Consistency, Charles Howell III, while a danger, lacks the class of Crane.

Recommended Bets
Graeme McDowell [2.6] - 2 points
Rickie Fowler [2.3] - 2 points
Ben Crane [2.6] - 1 point

Season Profit Loss: -12.02 points

Dan Geraghty makes his selections for the first round two balls at the WGC Accenture Matchplay......

After a clean sweep last week, Dan Geraghty makes his three ball selections for this week's Northern Trust Open. Can our man work his magic again?...

Dan Geraghty selects a trio of players who he believes should be backed in first round three balls at this week's Dubai Desert Classic......

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The never-ending football managerial merry-go-round

English Football League / Hannah Duncan / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Simon Grayson: out of the Leeds hotseat and into the Huddersfield one within a matter of weeks

"It all goes to show hiring and firing is an inexact science and could be a contributing factor as to why the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal haven’t bitten the bullet just yet with regards to AVB and Arsene Wenger."

Mark Hughes and Simon Grayson are just two of the managers to have accepted new jobs over the last couple of months; Steve Bruce and Mick McCarthy just two of the men who lost theirs. But to what extent does the mid-season managerial change work?

It took nearly two weeks and countless rejections for Wolves to finally replace Mick McCarthy until at least the end of the season. After numerous managers with years of top-flight experience between them ruled themselves out of the running, Steve Morgan and co. decided the man they really wanted all along was Molineux coach of 13 years, Terry Connor.

Former Leeds and Brighton centre-forward Connor took the reins at the Black Country club last week and has already made a positive start to his tenure, as his side battled back from a two-goal deficit to rescue a point at high-flying Newcastle on Saturday. But there's still a long road ahead for Connor's men, as Wolves remain second-favourites at [1.78] for the drop on Betfair.

If Connor can keep Wolves in the Premier League for another season, the decision to oust McCarthy will surely go down as an exceptional move by owner Morgan. But hiring and firing mid-season is always a risky business. It often keeps those baying for blood on the terraces happy, but is it always the right move?

Yorkshire rivals Leeds and Huddersfield both said "You're fired" to their respective managers at the turn of the year. Neither former Leeds boss Grayson nor dismissed Huddersfield manager Lee Clark had been doing badly in their roles. Grayson had seen his side promoted from League One in 2009-10 and had them in and around the Championship play-offs this season and last. While Clark led the Terriers to the League One play-off final last year and looked to have them challenging again this time around - having been on an 11-month Football League record-breaking 43-game unbeaten run, spanning both seasons, in the process.

Grayson, who got one-time Champions League semi-finalists Leeds out of the League One doldrums is now back in the division, having put two fingers up to his former employers by joining the Terriers. Huddersfield are currently third favourites for promotion at [2.7].

Leeds meanwhile have snatched up Neil Warnock - a man who they hope can replicate his promotion success from the Championship with both Sheffield United and QPR. The Elland Road outfit are an outside bet at [3.8] for a top 6 finish this season.

Though let's be honest, however Leeds' season turns out, the Warnock-Ken Bates meeting of minds is a mouth-watering prospect for all in football.

But, as is usually the case, it's been another mixed season for mid-season managerial replacements. Following the dismissal of former Manchester United stalwart Steve Bruce in November, Martin O' Neill has worked wonders at Sunderland.

When he took the reins, the Black Cats were looking increasingly like this season's relegation fodder, yet now just three months on, they've beaten title contenders Manchester City, knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup and are sitting pretty in ninth position in the Premier League.

At the other end of the spectrum, QPR ditched Neil Warnock during the January transfer window and gave former Wales and Blackburn boss Mark Hughes the task of keeping the R's out of the drop zone. And despite numerous January signings including Bobby Zamora and Nedum Onuoha, Hughes's side only escape the relegation zone on goal difference and are at [1.91] on Betfair for the drop.

It all goes to show hiring and firing is an inexact science and could be a contributing factor as to why the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal haven't bitten the bullet just yet with regards to AVB and Arsene Wenger.

Four matches in League Two to look at and some bets to allow you to profit from them via the keyboard of Ian Lamont. Including why Swindon should pick up another three points....

There's a mouth-watering clash at the top of League One this weekend as the two Sheffield clubs go head-to-head. Alan Dudman previews the affair and fancies United to be the better side on the day....

Charlton and Sheffield United continue to impress in League One, and both could get another win under their belt without conceding a goal this weekend says Alan Dudman....

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Timeform UK SmartPlays: Wednesday February 29

Timeform UK SmartPlays / Timeform / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kempton is the venue for all three of Wednesday's SmartPlays.

"Yankee Storm may have yet more to offer and can get off the mark for his new trainer at the third time of asking..."

Timeform highlight a trio of SmartPlays on this evening's Kempton card...

Our first selection comes in the 18:05, where the improving My Name Is Sam is taken to open his account at the fifth time of asking. The three-year-old, trained by Ron Harris, took a big step forward when finishing third at Wolverhampton just under a fortnight ago, finishing best of all having been held up in a slowly-run race. Clearly things did not pan out in his favour that day but a return to six furlongs is likely to be in his favour, as is the stronger pace that a 12-runner field will hopefully ensure, and he has solid claims of boosting his trainers' excellent level-stakes profit at the track (+44.71 to a £1 level-stake in the last five years).

Yankee Storm (18:35) has gained all six of his wins on the all-weather, with his latest win in March last year coming over course and distance. His debut effort for the Michael Wigham yard at Lingfield late last month, after a nine-month absence, was not all that inspiring but there were much brighter signs on his latest start, also at Lingfield, where he travelled strongly before being badly hampered and finishing with running left. He may have yet more to offer and can get off the mark for his new trainer at the third time of asking.

The 20:05 looks a fairly open contest, but a chance can be taken on the Jeremy Gask-trained Laser Blazer. The four-year-old has shaped better than the result on a number of occasions, including on his last two starts when fifth and third at the course. In both cases he has been ridden somewhat aggressively, doing too much too soon and pressing on earlier than was ideal, catching the eye all the same. The cheekpieces worn on his most recent outing are in evidence once again, he should stay today's mile and a half trip and he remains on an appealing handicap mark, having dropped 7 lb from his opening BHA rating of 57.

Timeform SmartPlays
all at Kempton

Back My Name Is Sam @ [5.6] in the 18:05
Back Yankee Storm @ [5.8] in the 18:35
Back Laser Blazer @ [7.0] in the 20:05

....................
Timeform ratings are in fine form! Among 5 top-rated winners at Kempton on Saturday was Nacarat (BSP [5.58]). Click HERE for today's cards & ratings.

Three more SmartPlays from the Timeform Free Form Site with two bets at Catterick and one at Lingfield this afternoon......

On a relatively quiet day of racing, Timeform's SmartPlays team like the look of a few runners on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.......

Fontwell stages graded action this afternoon and we turn to the Sussex course for all of today's three SmartPlays......

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Nicholls' Week Ahead: The Timeform Preview

Weekend Runners / Timeform / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Woolcombe Folly is arguably Nicholls' highest profile entry this weekend

"Of the three, it is arguably Woolcombe Folly who has the greatest chance of winning having fallen in the handicap of late..."

A relatively quiet time of year for most trainers with all eyes on the Cheltenham Festival but Paul Nicholls still has some high profile representatives due to take up engagements this weekend...

A novice hurdle on Taunton's Thursday card is likely to get the yard underway this week with the champion trainer holding four entries at this stage: Opening Batsman, The Timeform Betfair Racing Club-owned Unparthou, Black Thunder and Jump City. Of the quartet, it is the latter pairing that look to hold the stronger claims, the duo joint-top on Timeform ratings. Black Thunder also looks open to progression after just two runs over hurdles and he could take a lot of beating should he line up, though it is worth noting that he also holds an entry at Newbury on Friday.

Egypt Mill Spirit is Nicholls' other entry at Taunton, that one set to go to post in the 19.5f handicap hurdle due off at 16:10. Egypt Mill Spirit has 10 lb to find with the David Pipe-trained Katchmore at the weights but he remains relatively lightly raced and there is a chance that he could progress given his connections and the manner of his four starts over timber so far.

Billy Merriott and Themilanhorse are the stable's only entries at Ludlow on Thursday, the pair entered in what looks a modest 21f handicap hurdle. Themilanhorse is perhaps the more likely winner, currently considered 2 lb superior to his stablemate and also open to more progression after just the two tries over hurdles. Whilst Themilanhorse remains 4 lb adrift of Venetia Williams' Sprit d'Armour at the weights, he could easily give that one something to think about if building upon his Warwick performance last time, as is expected to be the case.

Likeable Rogue and Curtain Razer join Black Thunder in the aforementioned novice hurdle at Newbury on Friday afternoon, the trio all with a bit to find with Phillip Hobbs' Talkonthestreet. Both Black Thunder and Likeable Rogue are open to improvement, however, and it would be of little surprise if they were to figure in the finish should either take their place in the line-up.

No Loose Change is another Nicholls entry later on the Newbury card, set to run in a novice handicap chase over two miles and six furlongs. The half-brother to useful bumper horse Dylan Ross will be making his debut over fences and the step back up in trip should be to his advantage.

Tigre d'Aron could be the final runner for the yard at Newbury. also set to make his fencing debut when taking in the two-and-a-half-mile handicap. Tigre d'Aron has been relatively disappointing in two hurdle starts since leaving Howard Johnson, finishing well down the field at Cheltenham back in November and never a factor over three miles at Taunton last time, but the step back down in trip should be to his favour and he does have the physique to excel over fences (dam won 19f chase in France).

Niche Market could get Nicholls off to a good start on Saturday as he is entered in a veterans' handicap chase at Newbury. Niche Market would seem to have a good chance at the weights and comes out joint-top rated with Whinstone Boy after a solid effort behind West End Rocker in the Becher Chase last time. His main target has always been the Grand National on April 14 and Saturday's race could see him put just right for that race.

Nicholls is triple handed in the following race at Newbury, the Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase, with Aerial, Pasco and Woolcombe Folly all set to go to post. The race looks very competitive at this stage with all three of Nicholls' representatives with in 4 lb of the Timeform top-rated horses. Of the three, it is arguably Woolcombe Folly who has the greatest chance of winning having fallen in the handicap of late, and he is now down to a BHA mark (158) off which he could be competitive. Aerial was a well-held fourth on his latest start despite running creditably, whilst Pasco has showed signs of temperament in the past.

It is worth noting that Aerial is also entered in a race at Kelso on Saturday but has a fair bit to find with ratings topper Ballabriggs. The two miles and six furlongs may be a bit on the sharp side for Ballabriggs, however, and, given that Donald McCain's eleven-year-old will be using the race as a Grand National prep, he's unlikely to be at a peak on Saturday.

Edgardo Sol is Nicholls' remaining entry at Kelso on Saturday, entered in a Grade 2 novice hurdle. Edgardo Sol currently heads the ratings for the contest, considered 5 lb superior to his nearest rival and, judging by how his season has taken shape so far, another solid performance wouldn't surprise.

Takeroc could round the weekend off well for the yard in what admittedly looks a fairly open handicap chase at Doncaster. Takeroc is another Timeform top-rated after a useful performance behind Finian's Rainbow last time and a reproduction of that form will surely see him go close. He will have to shoulder top-weight in Saturday's contest but, with conditions likely to suit, he should have every chance of featuring in the finish.

Timeform take a look at a weekend where it was very much business as usual for Britain's champion jumps trainer......

Paul discusses his two runners at Fontwell on Sunday, including one that could be ideally suited by the distance......

Paul has several promising runners in action at Kempton on Saturday afternoon as well as a couple of chances at Chepstow. Below, he offers a comprehensive assessment of their chances......

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Nicky Henderson: Cheltenham hill to Long Run's advantage in Gold Cup

The Cheltenham Festival / Timeform / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Long Run will be defending his Gold Cup crown this year.

"I know Long Run's win (Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury) didn't please everyone, but it certainly pleased us..."

Nicky Henderson talks through the chances of stable stars Long Run, Burton Port, Binocular and Sprinter Sacre at the Cheltenham Festival...

Long Run (7 b.g Timeform Rating 182)
Burton Port (8 b.g Timeform Rating 166)

Henderson said: "I know Long Run's win (Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury) didn't please everyone, but it certainly pleased us. It was a pity we had to run two but it was the best place to start off Burton Port after his tendon injury.

"Some here even fancied Burton Port (who received 10 lb) to win that day because he's definitely a better horse than he was two years ago. Long Run jumped nicely and we think the Cheltenham hill will be to our advantage. Burton Port has an excellent record over fences and has yet to finish out of the first two. My worry with him is the bounce factor."

Although it was much better last time, Long Run's jumping is possibly his biggest hindrance for further Gold Cup glory and he currently trades at [3.35] for the March 16 showpiece. Burton Port, who looks well handicapped for the Grand National ([20.0]) on April 14 having been allotted a BHA rating of 158 before his Newbury return, finds himself behind his stablemate and Kauto Star only in the Gold Cup betting at [11.0].

Binocular (8 b.g Timeform Rating 167)

Henderson said: "What happened at Wincanton (beat Celestial Halo six lengths) was tremendous and it has put a spring back in our step. AP had mentioned his wind after the Christmas Hurdle and it's probably no coincidence Wincanton was his first run back from a soft palate procedure to correct that."

That strong-travelling win last time was much more taking that his two previous 'prep' runs for the Champion (forced to miss last year's renewal on the BHA's advice having been treated for an allergy leading up to the race) and he ran to the same Timeform rating as when taking the big one in 2010. He looks the leading home-trained hope and his current odds of [7.4] for the Champion Hurdle on March 13 feature look fair, whilst he can also be backed in the "To Be Placed" or "Without Hurricane Fly" markets.

Sprinter Sacre (6 b.g Timeform Rating 160p)

Henderson said: "I don't usually pay much attention to race times, but all three runs have been exceptionally quick yet he has finished hard on the bridle every time. After the Supreme last year, AP said he was suspicious of his wind and we therefore had that rectified.

"I know people say he's a flat track horse who won't come up the hill, but I don't subscribe to that. I read that Cue Card is going to make the running, which is fine."

A 152p rated hurdler, Sprinter Sacre has improved on each of his starts over fences so far and was especially exuberant when beating returning stable-companion French Opera by an eased-down six lengths in the Betfair Super Saturday Chase at Newbury last time. While he remains 1 lb behind Al Ferof in the current Timeform standings for the Arkle Chase, he is deemed open to more progression that that rival and it's hard to argue that he doesn't deserve his place as [2.38] market principal. Sprinter Sacre can also be teamed up with other Festival favourites in the "Favourites Acca" market.

Simonsig, Darlan and Bobs Worth are a trio of novices that are heading to the Festival with excellent chances of success......

Philip Hobbs has admitted defeat in the race to get Fingal Bay to the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival......

Nicky Henderson is predicting an ultra-close fifth clash between Long Run and Kauto Star in the Gold Cup......

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Team Betfair Tearing Up The GSOP Through Events #1 and #2

Grand Series of Poker VIII / Matthew Pitt / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Dollars, lovely dollars all heading to Team Betfair players!

Team Betfair have been fast out of the blocks and have been tearing up the first couple of events. The running total so far is 590 entrants, 99 cashes and a massive $148,461.68 in prize money being won

The eighth edition of the Grand Series of Poker (GSOP) kicked off on Sunday 26 February and already Betfair Poker players are absolutely destroying the series and winning ridiculous sums of cash! Even this humble scribbler is in profit, what on Earth is happening?!

GSOP Event #1: $190+$10 No Limit Hold'em Deepstack $500,000 Guaranteed

The first GSOP VIII event started at 2000 CET on Feb. 26 with the $190+$10 No Limit Hold'em Deepstack event that carried a massive $500,000 guarantee on it. I almost missed the start as I was travelling back from EPT Copenhagen but managed to get back home with mere minutes to spare. Even if I had missed the start it would not have been too bad because the structure was so amazing; 5,000 chips and 20-minute blinds.

The slow structure must have appealed to my donkish ways and I somehow managed to make it into the money places, eventually crashing in 370/2,419 for a more than welcome $282.20. The run could have possibly been even deeper but I made a bad push in the last hand where I three-bet jammed over an UTG raise for 15bb whilst holding AhJh and ran into AxKx but it was fun, if a little tiring!

It was not only little old me representing Team Betfair who made it to the money, there were 75 of my fellow Betfair Poker players who cashed so a massive congratulations to you all! Special mentions have to go to fellow Brit harwell2 and Romania's FIREZUCU who both finished in the top 20 places (19 and 15 respectively) but an even bigger shoutout has to go to richard5174 who eventually busted out in fifth place for a score of $18,510.20.

But he was not the best placed Betfair Poker player, no, that honour went to mar1ach1 who almost took down the first event but fell just short in second place. The German lost heads-up to pasikko but I'm sure the $49,049.64 he picked up for second place will help numb the pain a little! It has been quite the couple of months for mar1ach1 as he also finsihed second in the Jan. 23 Champion Chip $200,000 guaranteed for $24,462! Congratulations!

Event # 1 in numbers

Total entrants: 2,419
Total prize pool: $500,000
Total Team Betfair entrants: 417 (17.24% of field)
Total Team Betfair ITM finishes: 76
Total Team Betfair prize money: $112,457.23 (22.49% of prize pool)

GSOP Event #2: $50+$4 No Limit Hold'em Turbo Unlimited Rebuys $75,000 Guaranteed

If it was up to me I would not speak about my performance in Event #2 because the tournament went terribly. As my Betfair account balance was looking extremely sorry for itself I was forced to play in a rebuy tournament with just a single bullet, a far from ideal scenario.

I had managed to build my stack up to 2,985 and was laughing in the face of those who had rebought but they were to have the last laugh. The blinds were 25/50 and I was under the gun with a beautiful pair of black aces, the best kind I'll have you know. I raise four times the big blind hoping for some nutcase to come over the top of my donkey raise and the ploy worked as Linbeo three-bet to 1,000. Mission accomplished; or so I thought. The big blind, Betfair player Slayerpl then moved all in for 3,000 in total and I obviously shipped in the rest of my stack and the cards were flipped over.

Me: AcAs
Slayerpl: QdJd
Linbeo: KdKc

I had around 67% which is all fine and dandy until the bloody flop came down 8s-7c-Ks. Yeah thanks for that. The turn and river were the 2c and 4c respectively and the 9,010 chip pot was shipped to Linbeo. It would not have hurt as much if he had put them to good use but he didn't even cash.

So my "Pud won a GSOP" brag attempt ended in me finishing a very disappointing 815/895 but it could have been so much better. God bless tournament poker.

But these articles aren't just about me they are about my fellow Team Betfair players too and 23 of you did me proud by making it into the money places. Giro_413 was the first to pick up some moolah, $229.20 to be exact and this amount started to gradually increase right up until j_sideris of Greece's 18th place finish that saw him scoop $898.72 for his efforts.

But again his performance was not the best of Team Betfair because we had two players on the final table! The player who sounds like the seagulls from Finding Nemo, MYMMYMMYM, almost took down Event #2 but he busted out in third place for a bankroll boosting $11,399.92.

Usually this would be enough to get the non-existant but still lucrative title of Team Betfair Player of the Tournament that I have just this second made up but not in this event because jumpjump99 of Denmark finished in second place for a cool $15,923.69. He narrowly missed out on glory when he was defeated by the_pean heads-up. Can Team Betfair Players please stop finishing second! A massive congratulations to everyone who made it into the money places, especially our final table members.

Event #2 in numbers

Total entrants: 895
Total prize pool: $134,000
Total Team Betfair entrants: 173 (19.33% of field)
Total Team Betfair ITM finishes: 23
Total Team Betfair prize money: $36,004.45 (26.87% of prize pool)

As you can see Team Betfair have been fast out of the blocks and have been tearing up the first couple of events. The running total so far is 590 entrants, 99 cashes and a massive $148,461.68 in prize money being won; that is 23.42% of the prize pools so far!

Keep up the good work boys and girls and hopefully we can write about more Team Betfair exploits in the coming days!

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Blue Diamond Stakes Review: Samaready for anything now

News / Gary Crispe / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mick Price's Samaready

"At that level Samaready joins the outstanding juvenile and now champion sire Redoute’s Choice as the second highest Timeform rated winner of the Blue Diamond in the last 25 years."

For the second year running there has been an above average winner of the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield with the unbeaten More Than Ready filly Samaready dominating last Saturday's field.

Last year Australian racing embraced the brilliant colt Sepoy spreadeagling a handy line up of juveniles by over four lengths setting a new peak Timeform rating of 124 for past winners of the Blue Diamond in the last 25 years. Sepoy's winning margin was also the biggest in the same period.

Last Saturday Samaready ran to a Timeform rating of 123p just 1 lb off joining Sepoy as the highest Timeform rated winner of the Group 1 feature in recent times. Nonetheless the winning performance by this filly stands out like a beacon.

The authority of the win over No Looking Back, who bought the strong Magic Millions form line to the race, was a telling part of the assessment. Samaready had the race won on the turn when she ambled up to the leaders under a tight hold from race rider Craig Newitt. The fact she was able to do this considering the fast early sectionals was just one factor in the analysis of this impressive victory.

Once Newitt asked her to extend, Samaready showed a quick turn of foot to put the race beyond issue.

Admittedly No Looking Back covered ground from a wide draw but she did have some cover and seemed to be travelling well enough on the turn to take a hand in the finish. However the winner was in another class. No Looking Back was assessed to run to 113, a pound under her Magic Millions run.

Timefigure analysis for the Blue Diamond Stakes points to a 121 rating while historical race standards analysis suggest a 123+ figure.

At that level Samaready joins the outstanding juvenile and now champion sire Redoute's Choice as the second highest Timeform rated winner of the Blue Diamond in the last 25 years.

No filly has ever run to a Timeform rating of 123 in winning a Blue Diamond. Until last week, the highest rated winning filly was the classy Alinghi who rated 120 in her 2004 victory over the Gai Waterhouse-trained Wager and World Peace.

There is an uncanny similarity between Alinghi and Samaready. Both had their debut run prior to Christmas and then spelled for an Autumn campaign. They both remained unbeaten with their Diamond wins at their third race start and both defeated a Gai Waterhouse-trained filly.

But there is little doubt Samaready is a superior filly which is quite a big statement in itself.

Once again using Alinghi as a yardstick, following her Blue Diamond win, Alinghi then scored effortlessly in the Group 2 Reisling Stakes at Rosehill before going down narrowly in the Golden Slipper Stakes finishing a close third to Dance Hero and Charge Forward with Fastnet Rock close up in fourth place.

That form line would stand up as one of the strongest Slippers in recent time and right now we have a filly rated superior to Alinghi.

Clearly there is a long way to go before Golden Slipper Day and plenty can go wrong with young horses, but there is definitely something special about Samaready.

Get free form, cards & results for Australia at timeform.com/free/

Philip Hobbs has admitted defeat in the race to get Fingal Bay to the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival......

Cirrus Des Aigles will step up his preparations for next month's Dubai World Cup night with a run in the Prix Meydan Hotel at Chantilly on Saturday......

Nicky Henderson is predicting an ultra-close fifth clash between Long Run and Kauto Star in the Gold Cup......

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Lingfield Placepot: Tuesday February 28

Daily Placepots / Matt Gardner / 28 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The Queen's colours will be carried by our final leg banker today.

"The drop in trip doesn’t strike as being an obvious move for Traveller’s Tales but she ought to have enough to see off her rivals..."

Timeform's Matt Gardner heads to Lingfield for Tuesday's crack at the placepot...

14:10 - It would come as no surprise were Always Eager to do better having been gelded and now switched to polytrack, but he was no more than modest as a juvenile and does have an absence to overcome. Saucy Cat has shown signs that she is going the right way in two starts for her new yard, particularly when staying on over C&D recently, and she remains unexposed. Conversely, Complex looks vulnerable to an improver for win purposes but has performed creditably on her last six starts (finished in the first three on each occasion) and ought to give her running once more.

14:40 - Anginola was in this headgear (visor) when winning and finishing fourth at Wolverhampton last month, but ran a poor race in first-time blinkers on her most recent start two weeks ago. A chance is taken that the returning visor will see a reoccurrence of her previous form, which would give her the edge on main rival Moment in the Sun.

15:10 - Difficult to dismiss any of these, but selecting both Maison Brillet and Ministry ought to ensure a safe passage. The former has been lightly raced since winning at Kempton in December 2010, but has shown that he retains all of his ability by kicking off 2012 with a trio of second-placed efforts, and there is no reason why he shouldn't go well again. Ministry's last two runs on the flat were his best efforts to date, winning at Kempton before finishing second at Wolverhampton, and was bought out of the John Best yard for 21,000 gns. He has since been hurdling, running his best race in that sphere on his last start, and he could well be up to making the first two.

15:40 - Barring non-runners there are three places on offer in the fourth leg, presenting an excellent opportunity to double-up. Katmai River has been knocking on the door of late, finishing second on his last three starts at Kempton, and the return to seven furlongs ought to suit. Buxton's BHA mark of 56 is very appealing, given his last win was achieved off a mark of 70, and it is worth taking the chance that he has been freshened-up by a two month break.

16:10 - Alkadi wouldn't need to be out of the ordinary to run well here but she was unraced for Godolphin, leaving Saeed bin Suroor in November last year, which is a very slight cause for concern. It's difficult to split Gold Falcon and Sugar Prince, and if Alkadi disappoints we may well be left with the two places at our mercy. Gold Falcon has shown just modest form in two starts to date, but signs of greenness on both starts suggest a bigger performance may be in the offing, and the return to this trip is likely to suit. Sugar Prince belied his odds to shape well on debut here, finishing fourth, and is another who should appreciate today's distance.

16:40 - Just the four runners for the final leg, and the Richard Hannon-trained Traveller's Tales is selected as a banker. She was gradually progressive in maidens last year, the soft ground a plausible excuse on her sole nursery start, and although the drop in trip doesn't strike as being an obvious move, she ought to have enough to see off her rivals.

Selections:

14:10 - 5, 6
14:40 - 1
15:10 - 2, 4
15:40 - 2, 5
16:10 - 2, 4
16:40 - 4
= 16 lines

....................
Timeform ratings are in fine form! Among 5 top-rated winners at Kempton on Saturday was Nacarat (BSP [5.58]). Click HERE for today's cards & ratings.

It's a ropey day on the placepot front, but Wolverhampton makes a bit more appeal than Plumpton, so it's there that Timeform's Simon Baker is headed......

Timeform's Matt Gardner heads to Fontwell for Sunday's placepot permutation......

Timeform's Phil Thompson has a crack at the Chepstow placepot........

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Nick Shiambouros' Patented 80/20 Bet: Catterick, 16:50

80/20 / Nick Shiambouros / 28 February 2012 / 1 Comments

We're at Catterick today for Nick's 80/20 bet but who is he backing for success?

Today's 80/20 is The Red Laird in the 16.50 at Catterick.

This gelding finished second to Storm Survivor at Plumpton last month.He made a couple or errors but kept on well in the closing stages to finish a clear second.I think he sets a good standard in this race and should run well at a fair price.At present he is trading at [4.8] on the exchange.

Nick explains why he expects today's 80/20 to get the week off to a winning start......

Will Nick's selection put on a good 'show' this afternoon?...

Why this Choice is the right choice as regards today's 80/20 bet....

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