World Match Play 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Every Jason has his Day. The Aussie has a very winnable first round match against Kyung-Tae Kim.
"Finally, in the Sam Snead Bracket, Jason Day is an enormous price at [110.0] considering that he starts as hot favourite for his opening match against Kyung-Tae Kim."
This is the sort of tournament where everyone is a big price, though not necessarily a value price. But which three figures prices are the ones to be on?
The format used for this week's World Matchplays presents an obvious trading strategy. Because there is a fixed draw, it makes sense to pick out one player from each of the four brackets, in the knowledge that successfully picking just one semi-finalist would guarantee a profit on the event.
Firstly in the Bobby Jones Bracket, odds of [110.0] about Martin Laird are frankly an insult, bearing no reflection to his recent numbers. This is a player with top-five finishes in four of his last seven starts, often in very strong company. Even for one of his lesser recent performances, Laird was bang in contention after four rounds of the Bob Hope Classic. The draw has been fairly kind too, with a perfectly winnable opening match against Edoardo Molinari.
With his odds vastly inflated at [170.0] compared to relatively recent levels, it could be worth taking a chance that the switch from strokeplay to matchplay can work the oracle for Bo Van Pelt. Few players showed more consistent improvement in 2010, so it's too early to write him off for 2011. As it happens, his only decent effort so far came here in Arizona earlier this month when hitting three good rounds at the Phoenix Open. Again his first round opponent in the Ben Hogan Bracket, Louis Oosthuisen, doesn't set a terrifying standard.
Ryan Palmer similarly owes his place in this elite event to a much improved 2010 campaign, although in his case fourth at the Bob Hope Classic confirms he remains in good form. Furthermore, Palmer is in the weakest section, with only three players from the Gary Player Bracket currently trading under [60.0]. If Ryan can upset the odds against an out-of-form Jim Furyk on Wednesday, [160.0] could quickly look huge.
Finally, in the Sam Snead Bracket, Jason Day is an enormous price at [110.0] considering that he starts as hot favourite for his opening match against Kyung-Tae Kim. That quote looks an over-reaction to missing last week's cut, his first for nine months, and the young Aussie prospect is better judged on consecutive top-20s previously in Hawaii.
The trading plan is to invest six units, at odds that combine to a little more than [25.0]. Then, place two lay orders on each player, both for ten units, at [7.0] and [3.0]. Hitting the first lay target would involve winning three matches, and taking the lead in the quarter-final. The second target would involve reaching the last four, and again taking the lead.
Recommended bets
1.5 units Martin Laird @ [110.0]
1.5 units Jason Day @ [110.0]
1 unit Ryan Palmer @ [160.0]
1 unit Bo Van Pelt @ [170.0]
Place order to lay each player 10 units @ [7.0]
Place order to lay each player 10 units @ [3.0]
Updated 2011 Stats: -12 units
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