Premier League 
/ Michael Cox / 05 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Edwin Van Der Sar should expect a busy afternoon at Anfield
"Carroll will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing Smalling and Brown –and if he does, first goalscorer odds of [8.5] look pretty good."
Forget about the two matches that we've already seen between these clubs this season, because Sunday's contest at Anfield will be entirely different, says Michael Cox.
This is the third match of the season between Liverpool and Manchester United, with Sir Alex Ferguson's men winning the first two games narrowly - 3-2 and 1-0. Those two matches were both at Old Trafford, however, and back at Anfield Liverpool will be confident of ending a poor run of form against their rivals.
Kenny Dalglish had been in charge for a matter of hours before the 1-0 defeat to United, and his job was made more difficult when Steven Gerrard was dismissed in the first half for an unnecessary two-footed lunge on Michael Carrick. This will be a completely different contest.
The major team news concerns Manchester United's centre-backs. With Nemanja Vidic sent off against Chelsea and therefore joining Rio Ferdinand on the sidelines, United are significantly weakened at the back. The replacement partnership looks set to be Wes Brown alongside Chris Smalling - a duo that have never played together before. The two are reasonably similar and would both prefer to have a stronger, more physical character alongside them, and United have looked much more prone to conceding headed goals when Vidic is not on the pitch.
The major beneficiary of that weakness would be Andy Carroll - but it remains to be seen whether he'll be fit enough to play. Carroll's first game of the season was against United, where he gave their back four a torrid time, winning 12 of his 16 aerial battles - and that was against Vidic. He'll be licking his lips at the prospect of facing Smalling and Brown -and if he does, first goalscorer odds of [8.5] look pretty good. Remember, bets are voided on any player who takes no part in the match or who comes on as substitute after the first goal has been scored.
Dalglish's first decision will be about his formation, however. His reintroduction of a back three worked excellently against Stoke and Chelsea - perhaps catching his opponents by surprise - but last week against West Ham, Liverpool were outplayed. If United play a 4-5-1 shape, or have one of their forwards dropping off into midfield, Liverpool's back three may become unnecessary and Dalglish would find himself with a shortfall in midfield. With that in mind, he might consider it wise to switch to a back four here, with a fluid five man midfield supporting the lone striker, or if Carroll is fit, more of a traditional 4-4-2.
Ferguson's formation is equally unpredictable - Dimitar Berbatov has generally been dropped from United's big games so far this season, but having scored a hat-trick against Liverpool this season and winning the crucial penalty in the other, Ferguson might consider it wise to start the Bulgarian here. Away at Marseille recently, Ferguson used Wayne Rooney on the flank - and Rooney's versatility means that we might not know United's true shape even when the line-ups are revealed. Rooney can play upfront or wide, Darren Fletcher can play in the centre or on the right, and Nani can play on either flank - meaning the same XI players could line up in a 4-4-2 or a 4-5-1 system. Javier Hernandez is another man to consider - he had a quiet game at Chelsea, but his pace might cause Liverpool's defence problems, though it wouldn't be a surprise to see him benched.
The formations and line-ups will have a bearing on the corners odds. If United play two wingers on their natural sides - Ryan Giggs and Nani, perhaps - they are much more likely to get to the byline and win corner kicks. On the other hand, if Nani is used on the left and Darren Fletcher is on the right, not looking to get down the line, United will play through the centre more. On the other hand, Liverpool's system with wing-backs has generally produced a high number of corners - so if betting on corners markets, the formations will be crucial.
It's hard to look past the fact that neither defence looks very solid here, and with that in mind, both teams to score at [1.95] is my second recommended bet.
Recommended bets:
Carroll to score first at [8.5]
Both sides to score at [1.95]
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