/ Timeform / 01 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
AP McCoy: Binocular his only major chance of the week?
"All in all, it could easily be a bleak four days at Prestbury Park for Tony McCoy, with Binocular his only major chance, and he’s no good thing by any means."
Timeform's Martin Dixon previews what might be in store for AP McCoy at Cheltenham 2011...
Along with Quevega, Time For Rupert and Big Buck's, one of the hottest favourites at this year's Cheltenham Festival is Ruby Walsh to yet again retain the Thomas Pink leading jockey award, trading currently at [2.56] to back. It's perhaps surprising that AP McCoy isn't next in line, with Barry Geraghty at [3.7], whilst 'the Champ' trades at a somewhat derogatory [9.2]. Derogatory, that is, as to his talents, but how many 'chances' does McCoy actually have in 2011? I'm left to delve.
I'm sure some of the stats boffins amongst us have this all sewn up; only twice since 1999 has McCoy ridden 2 or more winners at the Festival. Surely then, 0-1 winners is an odds-on chance. Steam in at [2.5]!
Of course, that's the simple approach. In reality, the stats of previous years are irrelevant, with McCoy all set for an entirely different book of rides, and the only way to forecast is to consider just what that book of rides is likely to consist of. Here goes...
We'll deal with the obvious first, with Binocular in the Champion Hurdle. It's a fiercely competitive renewal, almost certainly deeper than in 2010, but he was a decisive winner a year ago and has had a better preparation this time around. He's McCoy's big chance of the week. The worrying point for AP, though, is that beyond that his chances are much less obvious.
Day 1 will be crucial, not only does he ride Binocular but Starluck has now been confirmed for the Arkle, whilst Quantativeeasing is ante-post favourite for the closing Centenary Novices' Chase.
Starluck got off to an encouraging start over fences at Huntingdon last week and, with J.P. McManus not having an obvious Arkle contender, McCoy is set to retain the ride. Admittedly, it wasn't a strong race at Huntingdon, but his very smart hurdles form dictates that he's open to significant improvement and McCoy is the perfect partner for a horse with limited chasing experience.
If the chance of one horse sums up the whole week for AP, then it's probably Quantitiveeasing. Talk of him as an ante-post favourite may be misleading, as the newly-formed Centenary Novices' Chase is a very difficult race to get a handle on. He's a promising young chaser, no doubt, but so are many of those that he's likely to be up against.
Alongside Binocular, Albertas Run completed a Festival double for the Champion Jockey with success in last year's Ryanair, but he has a lot to prove after a poor run in the King George, whilst Captain Cee Bee's chances look remote in the Champion Chase.
As ever, there are likely to be some J.P. McManus-owned handicap plots for McCoy, with Sunnyhillboy one that stands out, but to cling your Festival winners' hopes on them is dangerous and, often, unfruitful.
All in all, it could easily be a bleak four days at Prestbury Park for Tony McCoy, with Binocular his only major chance, and he's no good thing by any means.
Those stats weren't so irrelevant after all, were they?
With only two weeks to the day before the cream of the hurdling crop navigate their way around Prestbury Park, before rising to the top of that famous hill, the shape of the race is now clearly defined, and it's multidimensional according to Timeform's Adam Brookes....
Timeform's Martin Dixon previews what might be in store for AP McCoy at Cheltenham 2011......
Whilst you may not be able to see past Binocular winning his second Champion Hurdle, or superstar stayer Big Buck's dominating once again in the World Hurdle, you may have also decided that the current odds on offer are too skinny for you to get involved. Well, help is on hand in the shape of the Betfair Cheltenham Specials markets....
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