Find Me A 100 Winner 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 24 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Noren is in form and talking a good game
"If you're looking for a comparable upset to last year's shock winner Simon Khan, Marcus Fraser may not be quite the no-hoper suggested by odds of [470.0]."
Outsiders have a good recent record at Wentworth so can Paul score a big priced winner this week?
As pointed out in greater detail here, recent renewals of the European Tour's flagship event have offered plenty of mileage for backing outsiders, so I'm happy to lay out a more substantial portfolio than usual, with four selections. All of this quartet fulfil at least one of the other two main criteria for success at Wentworth - accurate driving or boasting good course form.
Sweden's Alexander Noren is a [120.0] chance in very good form, making two top-fives and four top-25s since the middle of April, and sounds in confident mood on his refreshingly detailed and very honest blog. Noren has already shown a liking for Wentworth, finishing sixth on only his second visit in 2008 and a respectable 21st the following year. A failure 12 months ago should be ignored as he was struggling at the time, whereas those good recent numbers suggest a return to somewhere near his best.
Back in January, I identified Joost Luiten as one of four players to make substantial progress and while he hasn't vindicated that confidence in the same way as fellow picks Charl Schwartzel and Nick Watney, I remain convinced that a breakthrough title is imminent.
Towards the end of 2010, the young Dutchman was in contention virtually every week, and while he hasn't quite hit those heights yet this term, his form is pretty solid. Luiten has made the top-25 on five of his last seven starts, hitting a high percentage of fairways and greens in regulation. He also made a promising Wentworth debut last year, finishing a fairly close 17th despite one ruinous round of 74.
Apart from a fine opening 67 on his 2009 debut, David Horsey has made little impact at Wentworth yet, but as one of the straightest drivers around, he looks tailor-made for this tree-lined layout. In fairness, his form going in on both occasions was incomparable to now and that makes [210.0] a crazy price about a player who won the Hassan Trophy last month and was fifth in the China Open on his latest start.
Finally, if you're looking for a comparable upset to last year's shock winner Simon Khan, Marcus Fraser may not be quite the no-hoper suggested by odds of [470.0]. Fraser shared the lead going into the final day in 2007, before collapsing to 78 as the pressure took it's toll. He's more experienced in such strong company nowadays, and has been very reliable off the tee lately. The Aussie has ranked inside the top-ten for driving accuracy on his last four completed starts, and averaged over 80% of fairways on his last three.
The plan is to lay out five units in total, then place two lay orders at [12.0] and [3.0] on each player. Hitting one lay target would ensure we at least double our money.
Recommended Bets
2u Alexander Noren @ [120.0]
1.5u Joost Luiten @ [170.0]
1u David Horsey @ [210.0]
0.5u Marcus Fraser @ [450.0]
Place order to lay each player 10u @ 12.0
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 3.0
Updated 2011 Stats: -28.5 units
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