In-running 
/ Neil Munro / 14 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Neil has identified some interesting horses to follow in-running
"Excelette is one to trade on at short prices in her next few runs."
As with anything else in life, the best in-running insights come to those who put the hard work in, says Neil Munro.
As well as taking a few days out this week to enjoy some of the sights of Dublin with friends (and I don't just mean the bars), I have been doing some work on my In Running database.
I wanted it to give me more idea of what prices I should be trading on for certain horses. Unfortunately, it only gives you the information you want if you put the hard work in. So now I am starting to get the percentage chance if a horse is trading at half his SP, other prices and odds-on as well figures for those horses that trade bigger when they win. This is all useful information that will be shared as we discuss various horses over the coming months.
Our Jonathan: One of Dr Marwan Koukash's 500 horses in training. Seriously, we have to be thankful for new owners like the good doctor and we also have the advantage of knowing, because of his honesty, that he loves to have a winner at Chester, his local track. Indeed he has a 14 percent strike rate there and you would have made £18.83 to a unit pound stake by backing his horses blindly at the course.
Do we make this game too complicated at times? From an in-running point of view Our Jonathan is an interesting character. He has a win ratio of around 28%, which is pretty decent, and he has enjoyed the step up to seven furlongs this season. But he's a slow starter which means hold-up tactics are the norm. As you can imagine at Chester these tactics are far from ideal but he has won there once in three efforts. Out of five career wins he has traded at double his BSP three times, so if you want to back him try and do it at decent prices in the run. If he goes off at shortish prices I'm tempted to lay him pre-race and back him in the run if I feel the opposition is strong enough.
Excelette: On the same card at Chester ran Excelette, Bryan Smart's two-year-old, only four runs into her career. She had already caught my attention and is one to keep an eye for the rest of the summer. She looks a decent type as she did it the hard way, coming out of the stalls heading right on a tight left-handed track before tracking the pace and making up plenty of ground in the straight. She traded big in-running ([36.0] having gone off BSP [4.40]) but I think she is one to trade on at short prices in her next few runs. Previous to the Chester run she had been ridden prominently and already had two odds-on turnovers and another short price defeat. So as she steps up in class, I would back her pre-race and lay out at 25% of her BSP for your stake with a further odds-on offer to win on the field.
If you ever have any questions fire away on Twitter (@neilmunr) where I also try and point out some daily plays when I see them.
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