Longchamp Arc Meeting 
/ Graham Cunningham / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Will So You Think be the Arc winner?
"So You Think and Sarafina have the most persuasive credentials as win bets."
You wait ages for a big Group 1 contest and then seven come along all at once. The menu for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe day could hardly be more tempting and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham has been lapping up the Parisian sunshine as he anticipates the jewel in the crown of the European Flat season.
So You Think and Hiruno to shine in a fiendishly difficult Arc
Nothing would please me more than to say I think I have the Arc 2011 winner up my sleeve. But, whichever way you slice it, this year's race looks very hard to solve. Timeform ratings have no fewer than nine horses within 7lb of each other and for most punters it's a case of trying to use a process of elimination to make the long list more manageable.
So here goes.
I'm very confident Sarafina (TF 138) will play a major role simply because she was very unlucky not to go close last year and has made serene progress towards a repeat bid. Her potent turn of foot could be very valuable.
And I'm equally confident that So You Think (TF 142) is a major player for the simple reason that his ten furlong form is just about the best on offer and there seems every reason to expect him to stay the extra quarter mile.
Last year's winner Workforce (TF 141) and Snow Fairy (TF 140) both tie in very closely with So You Think having finished just half-a-length behind him in the Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes, while Danedream (TF 137), the highly progressive Galikova (TF 136p), Reliable Man (TF 135+), Masked Marvel (TF 135) and Meandre (TF 132) all boast high-class form and represent the three-year-old group who have won no fewer than 14 of the last 17 Arcs.
Hiruno D'Amour (TF 131) makes more appeal than last year's runner-up and fellow Japanese raider Nakayama Festa (TF 133+) based on their running behind Sarafina in the Prix Foy, but enough of the detail and onto my likely betting plan for this year's Arc.
The first point to make is that I won't be going overboard; the second point is that I can envisage a tight finish with luck in-running possibly playing an important part again; the third point is that I think that So You Think and Sarafina have the most persuasive credentials as regards win bets; and the fourth point is that Masked Marvel offers some place lay potential given that by far his best Timeform figure was recorded granted a much more demanding stamina test in the St Leger.
Recommended Bets
Back So You Think
Save on Hirono D'Amour
Place lay Masked Marvel
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Worthadd and Frankie to rain on Goldi's final French parade
It promises to be a long day in the sunshine if Sunday's Paris weather mirrors that of Saturday and my main punting action of the weekend will centre around the four Group 1 contests which lead up to the Arc.
Tangerine Trees is my live longshot for the Prix de l'Abbaye at 12.45.
Granted, he needs a career best to beat the likes of Prohibit and Margot Did, but he showed that he's in form of his life when defying a hefty penalty in the Beverley Bullet and his brazen early speed could be a big asset in a race where it can be very tricky to come from well off the pace.
Zantenda and Dabirsim will both be strong favourites for the Prix Marcel Boussac at 13:20 and the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at 13:55. I'm in no mood to oppose either.
Zantenda took a while to subdue Rajastani in the Prix d'Aumale over this course and distance but was nicely on top at the line.
The turn of foot she showed could well be the key factor against the front-running Elusive Kate and Fire Lily, while Dabirsim stamped himself as the leading juvenile colt in Europe by romping clear of Sofast in Deauville's Prix Morny and with the extra furlong here likely to suit it will come as a big surprise if he's beaten.
Goldikova's final appearance in France in the Prix de la Foret at 14:30 provides the perfect appetiser for the Arc and, despite having opposed the mighty mare to my cost in the past, I'm sorely tempted to take her on again in search of value.
The freewheeling Worthadd is the one who is doing the tempting. This Italian raider ran a screamer to chase home Canford Cliffs in Newbury's Lockinge Stakes in May and I'm inclined to forgive him a poor effort when well behind Goldi at Deauville last time on account of the fact that he was messed about by a couple of pacemakers.
I'm encouraged by the drop down to seven furlongs and I love the fact that Frankie will be aboard for the first time. In short, Worthadd makes clear each way appeal at [10.0] or bigger. In fact, he looks one of the best value bets of the entire weekend from where I'm standing.
Recommended Bets
12:45: Back Tangerine Trees win and place
13:20: Back Zantenda
13:55: Back Dabirsim
14:30: Back Worthadd win and place
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Timeform Race Cards for Arc Sunday are available now at timeform.com
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