African Cup Of Nations 
/ Jonathan Wilson / 29 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Will they finally see their team win?
"Even if Senegal give reserve players a chance against Libya, though, you’d still expect them to have a forward line that can damage Libya – one of the few advantages of bringing seven centre-forwards in the squad."
It's been a disappointing tournament for Senegal but they can make amends by signing off with a win, says Jonathan Wilson
Malabo stands on the north-west tip of Bioko, the main island part of Equatorial Guinea. On the south-west corner is Luba, a small town that feels a bit like Ambleside transplanted to Africa. It's all grey stone, and a small river runs through the centre of it, crossed by a number of quaint bridges. The water is surprisingly clear, affording a perfect view of all the rubbish that lies among the weeds on the bed. Towards the sea, women wash clothes and children paddle.
A little way inland on the main street, the river curves towards the mountainside, leaving a shallow floodplain that is covered in shingle. In the midst of it stands a pedestal, and on that is a bust of Maximiliano Jones. He was a slave trader from Sierra Leone who sold his own brothers, and founded the two sometime in the seventeenth century. Not, you'd think, the kind of man who would normally be celebrated, but his name is dotted about the town. The main hotel, which bears a pleasing resemblance to the African hotel in which Jack Nicholson holes up in Antonioni's film The Passenger, is painted pale blue. It's name? Hotel Jones (pronounced, of course, 'Hoh-ness').
It was in Luba that Equatorial Guinea were supposed to be based, having left the mainland for their final group match, against Zambia. They arrived on Friday, though, took one look at the hotel and decided that after two wins they're worth rather more. Somebody clearly agreed, because they've moved up to Sipopo, a luxury resort a few miles north of Malabo featuring a Sofitel and 52 luxury villas where the respective national presidents stayed during the African Union summit last year.
Zambia, by contrast, seem to have got the rough end of the deal, and on Friday there were training in the dark on the unlit artificial pitch outside the main stadium - a pitch so un-exclusive it's where I go for my morning jog. Equatorial Guinea are already through, and a point will be enough to Zambia, even if Libya beat Senegal.
I'm wary, though, of what team Equatorial Guinea will pick, and how motivated they'll be. Certainly, you imagine, they can't be as lucky again as they were against Senegal. And, equally, Zambia are a better balanced, more coherent side than Senegal - while lacking their forward power - are as such are less likely to offer them the same opportunities. Then there's the issue of the group. The stadium in Malabo has a capacity of only 15,000 and as such clearly won't offer the same level of vocal backing as the 38,000 stadium in Bata.
The other game presents similar difficulties. Libya need to win, but they're a side essentially set up to endure. They scored twice against Zambia, admittedly, but the absence of Khalid El Kharatoushi with a calf injury will cut their creative options even further. Senegal, meanwhile, have essentially gone out of the tournament as a result of a poor first half against Zambia. They were unable to turn that fixture around, and that left them vulnerable to the sort of bad luck that cost them against Equatorial Guinea.
Even if Senegal give reserve players a chance against Libya, though, you'd still expect them to have a forward line that can damage Libya - one of the few advantages of bringing seven centre-forwards in the squad. And, surely, they're due a bit of luck in this tournament.
Recommended Bet
I can see a mutually beneficial draw in the Equatorial Guinea v Zambia game, which would be [2.54], but I'd suggest going for Senegal to pull off a face-saving performance and beat Libya at [2.08]. And if you fancy something more ambitious, maybe Senegal to win both halves at [8.0]: if they get ahead early, they could pick Libya apart on the break.
Libya are likely to leave more space at the back than usual and Tobias Gourlay thinks Senegal's strikers will finally start shooting straight...
The market thinks Equatorial Guinea and Zambia might settle for a draw in Malabo, but Tobias Gourlay has found reasons to believe otherwise...
Guinea are deservedly backed by the market going into this crucial Group D clash, writes James Eastham....
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