Premier League 
/ Michael Cox / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Aaron Ramsey scored the only goal in this fixture last year, and is available to open the scoring at 29.0
"Counter-attacking is generally the key to United beating Arsenal, and they usually do so better within a 4-3-3 system"
Sir Alex Ferguson has tried various approaches at the Emirates in recent years with various degrees of success. Michael Cox ponders the recent history of the fixture and how that will shape Manchester United's tactics here.
Arsenal v Manchester United, Sunday 16:00, Sky Sports 1.
Match odds: Arsenal 2.98, Man Utd 2.6, The Draw 3.5.
The recent history of tactical battles between Arsenal and Manchester United is fascinating. On one hand, Sir Alex Ferguson seems to have found a winning formula to defeat Arsene Wenger. On the other, he seems to keep moving away from it.
The tried and tested method of beating Arsenal is to sit back, defend deep and narrow knowing that Arsenal rarely cross the ball, before breaking quickly once they have players out of position. It doesn't always work, of course, but Ferguson seemed to be the master of doing it. The Champions League semi-final of 2009 and the league match in early 2010 both finished 3-1 to United, and were characterised by brilliant goals on the break - scored by Cristiano Ronaldo in 2009 and Wayne Rooney in 2010.
Crucial in those moves - and in the performances overall - was the use of a 4-3-3 system. It meant an attacking trio could break at speed - Rooney, Park Ji-Sung and either Ronaldo or Nani combined for both those goals.
But last year Ferguson played 4-4-1-1, and United were poor - passed around in midfield and falling to a 1-0 defeat. Back in the league in 2008 he used a similar system with a rare start in a big game for Dimitar Berbatov, and United lost 2-1. There is more to tactics than formations, of course, but counter-attacking is generally the key to United beating Arsenal, and they usually do so better within a 4-3-3 system.
This season, United have rarely used that system with one striker supported by two wide players - but then, they haven't played many of the big clubs away from home. When they travelled to Anfield to play Liverpool they did switch to a combination of 4-1-4-1 and 4-3-3, with Phil Jones alongside Darren Fletcher and Ryan Giggs in midfield, indicating Ferguson is still happy to play that system in big games.
I think he'll do that here, in order to compete with Arsenal in the centre of the pitch. Phil Jones in midfield makes sense if United are to sit deep, while Michael Carrick and Ryan Giggs will play the passes to prompt counter-attacks, with Anderson and Fletcher unavailable. Paul Scholes is another option, but in this fixture two years ago he was poor, with Ferguson switching him away from a deep-lying midfield position because Arsenal kept bursting past him.
It would also mean putting two wingers high up against Arsenal's full-backs, which is clearly Wenger's side's weak spot, with all four full-backs currently injured. Johan Djourou got sent-off at Fulham when played at right-back, Ignasi Miquel looked uncomfortable last weekend at Swansea on the other side - but Arsenal have no other options - unless Thomas Vermaelen makes a recovery to play at left-back.
The United wingers look a good bet to score, then. Park often plays here, but if Arsenal lack full-backs with quality on the ball, there doesn't seem a good reason to play the winger who specialises in defensive work. Antonio Valencia was excellent last week against Bolton and deserves another start, while Nani would suit a counter-attacking game; the Portuguese winger's United career burst into life with a good display here two years ago.
In terms of value for the first goalscorer, I'm surprised to see Aaron Ramsey available at [29.0]. The Welsh midfielder's form has dipped recently and he has yet to score in the league this campaign, but he got the winner in this fixture last season and looks overpriced here.
Meanwhile, Arsenal have lost their last two league games having gone ahead, whilst United are the masters of the late comeback. The odds for 'Man Utd to win from behind' don't look too promising, but a Arsenal / Man Utd in the Half Time / Full Time market at 28.0 looks good.
Recommended bets:
Aaron Ramsey to score first at [29.0]
Arsenal / Man Utd in Half Time / Full time at [28.0]
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