In-running 
/ Neil Munro / 25 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Wolverhampton (above) was where it all went right for Neil
"French Ties is a real character and attempts to find new ways to lose a race almost every time out."
Neil Munro provides an entertaining account of a race that was run exactly as he thought it would be. He also two profiles a pair of horses for you to add to the in-running portfolio...
For some betting and trading is about bringin in extra cash, for others it's about the thrill of race and for a few it's a full-time profession. Personally, I love studying a race, feeling confident that I can predict how it's going to be run and then seeing it develop in exactly the manner I had thought.
If that sounds smug, let me assure you that it doesn't happen too often. But it did occur recently with the horse Island Legend at Wolverhampton. For those who don't know, I love my sprints (I am not built for sprinting myself but I can admire horses who are) and when it comes to the more experienced horses I have an idea in my mind how most of them run. On the morning of the Wolves race in question, I started my form study with Island Legend. He didn't have the greatest recent form, back on his last winning mark, Milton Bradley has had a few winners, front-runner but drawn wide. The horse is on my in-running database (I mentioned him here in November) but the draw was putting me off putting him up as a back to lay trade.
I then looked at the other runners and found there was no other pace in the race, they were all hold up performers. Now I was interested. In my mind I wanted my end position to have me winning on the field. I looked at my stats. Island Legend had run 34 times and traded at half his BSP on 29 occasions, and more importantly he had traded a quarter his BSP on 25 of them. So now I had my play. Back him at BSP [3.65] and trade out at a quarter the BSP [1.66] for four times my stake.
And then the magic happened. Island Legend got out of the stalls nicely, got himself to the front of the small field with ease, dictated with a good consistent pace and came into the home straight looking the winner. I chanted ,"1.66 "as I watched the race. Matched! Island Legend faded in the final furlong and finished third. A quick check to see his lowest trade showed me had been matched at [1.61]. I was happy with that.
I can honestly say it doesn't go as smoothly as that most of the time but, then again, it isn't often that I feel so confident.
Valmina
Tony Carroll's five-year-old over all win ratio isn't that great but improves over five and six furlongs on the All-Weather and these are the conditions I would trade on Valmina. He travels well out the back and comes into the business end of a race looking the winner and tends to trade low.
Recommended: Over five and six on the AW, back at BSP and then lay out 150% of your stake at half the BSP in the run.
French Ties
Very well publicised, so beware. But Jennie Candish's ten-year-old is a real character who attempts to find new ways to lose a race. Most recently at Market Rasen French Ties decided that, having jumped the final fence, his job was done and, having traded [1.10], he handed the race to another horse.
Recommended: Lay In-running at [2.40] and then various offers at odds-on.
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