FA Cup 
/ Soccer Widow / 27 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Ryan Giggs has had five days' rest since his last match and is raring to go
"The market odds reflect these probabilities quite accurately and there is little value in any of the prices offered, although United remains the slight favourite in our view."
Soccer Widow uses her trusted calculator and spreadsheets to work out the value bets ahead of this mouth-watering clash. Nothing leaps out as outstanding but United do a look a tad over-priced...
Widely regarded as one of the most significant rivalries in world football, fans of both teams will relish this bonus cup match for differing reasons. Liverpool should be on a high following their Wednesday aggregate defeat of Manchester City in the Carling Cup semi-final, whilst United will not want their defeat of the same City side to be in vain, following that classic encounter during the 3rd round of the FA Cup earlier this month.
Following a run of three consecutive league defeats at Anfield, Sir Alex Ferguson experimented with his line-up and secured a positive result with the 1-1 draw on October 15th. Expect United's team-sheet to be once again structured with the intention of nullifying Liverpool's most potent threats, most significantly Steven Gerrard and Craig Bellamy, who have galvanized most of Liverpool's performances in recent weeks. There is also the element of revenge following United's 1-0 victory at Old Trafford in last season's FA Cup 3rd Round, plus the fact this game is the first between the two clubs since the infamous Evra-Suarez bust-up, and the Uruguayan hitman misses this game as part of his eight-match ban. All in all, the appetite is whetted for another intriguing battle, and of course, these teams never need an excuse to go at each other's throats from the first whistle...
How do the statistics stand up?
Head-2-Head (Liverpool Home vs. Man Utd Away, all competitions, 15 matches since 1998
• 6 home wins (40%), 3 draws (20%) and 6 away wins (40%)
• 3 matches have ended 0-1 (20%), and another three finished 3-1 (20%)
• 7 matches under 2.5 goals (46.7%); 10 matches under 3.5 goals (66.7%); 14
matches under 4.5 goals (93.3%)
• Liverpool has 'won to nil' only twice (13.3%); United, 3 times (20%)
• In 9 of 15 games since 1998 both teams scored (60%)
Liverpool's 25 most recent home games in all competitions
• 13 home wins (52%), 11 draws (44%), 1 away win (4%): Last 6 (most recent first):
H-D-H-D-D-D
• 6 of the last 25 home matches ended 1-1 (24%)
• 10 clean sheets in 25 home games (40%)
• In 14 of the last 25 home games, both teams scored (56%)
• 23 of 25 games finished with less than 4.5 goals (92%)
• Goal numbers in the last 6 home matches (most recent first): 2-2-5-0-1-0
Man Utd's 25 most recent away games in all competitions
• 5 home wins (20%), 5 draws (20%), 15 away wins (60%): Last 6 (most recent first):
A-A-H-A-A-H)
• 4 of the last 25 away matches ended 1-1 (16%)
• 12 clean sheets in last 25 away games (48%)
• In 10 of the last 25 away games, both teams scored (40%)
• 21 of 25 matches finished with less than 4.5 goals (84%)
• Goal numbers if the last 6 away matches (most recent first): 2-3-0-5-2-1
Summary:
Comparing Liverpool's last 25 home matches with Manchester United's last 25 away games (all competitions) produces the likelihood of a draw at 32%. However, head-to-head, they have drawn just 3 times in 15 matches (20%), and are also level on 6 wins apiece (40%). Based on averages of each team's performance over the respective last 25 home/away games, Soccerwidow computes 38% chance of a Liverpool victory, 26% the draw, and 36% in United's favour. The market odds reflect these probabilities quite accurately and there is little value in any of the prices offered, although United remains the slight favourite in our view, purely based on the fact Liverpool will have had just two days' recovery from its last game, compared to United's five days.
Turning to the goal markets, 'Under 4.5 goals' seems overpriced: Liverpool with 92% of its last 25 home games under 4.5, and Manchester United with 84% of its last 25 away fixtures below this threshold. Therefore, the combined likelihood, taking the H2H performances also into account, computes to 91.7%, whilst the market price is based on 88.5%. This is a tiny mathematical advantage or 'value' bet.
This game is almost too close to call and what little significant value Soccerwidow has found is presented below.
Recommended Bets:
a) Back Under 4.5 Goals (available odds: [1.13]; zero odds are [1.1])
b) Lay 0-0 (odds [12.00]; real odds are [13.64])
c) Back United to win (odds: [2.88]; real odds are [2.78])
Sheffield United and West Brom start their home FA Cup fourth-round ties against Birmingham and Norwich as favourites, but Michael Lintorn doesn't expect either to win......
It took a penalty shoot-out for Brighton to edge past non-league Wrexham and set up this tie, but now that they're here they'll fancy upsetting the odds......
Mike Norman takes a look at three all-Premier League clashes as well as Stoke's trip to Championship side Derby, and he believes Bolton can follow up their win against Liverpool by beating Swansea....
No comments:
Post a Comment