Events 
/ Sean Calvert / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Roger Federer will enjoy the fast conditions this week
"But back on his favoured surface I can see Federer erasing the memory of the Davis Cup and obliging at around [2.2] at a tournament where, although he rarely plays here, he has a 17-5 record."
Sean Calvert isn't often in the business of tipping the tournament favourite but these days Roger Federer can be backed at odds-against. This is a tournament where he has a good record and is on a fast surface he'll like, so he's the call.
What a diabolical few days of betting I endured at the weekend, with some shocking luck manifesting itself across the board in both tennis and football.
Not only did Ivo Karlovic and Dan Evans suddenly become most unlikely Davis Cup heroes, but I also managed to back Luis Suarez to score first and Man United to win 2-1 at [85.0] at Old Trafford and Keith Andrews at [16.0] to score the last goal in the Black Country Derby (he scored in the 86th minute and it wasn't the last goal).
So, surely that misfortune can't continue and to put a stop to it, I'm having an investment in the week's biggest ATP event, the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam.
It's normally one of the quickest indoor hard surfaces of the year in Rotterdam and although they have altered the surface for this year's event I would imagine that it will be still fairly pacy, which will suit number one seed Roger Federer.
Fed was surprisingly beaten at odds of around [1.04] in the Davis Cup on clay by John Isner at the weekend and it won't be easy to switch from clay to quick indoor hard in a matter of days, but it certainly shouldn't be beyond the Swiss.
Federer has an excellent draw, away from main rivals Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro and has really only the unpredictable Alexandr Dolgopolov to concern him in the top half of the draw.
I'm not convinced, however, that Dolgo's junk ball playing style can beat a firing Roger Federer though and as ever with the Ukrainian, it's anyone's guess how he will perform on any given day.
Elsewhere in the top half, Mikhail Youzhny has found some form lately and the Russian, who enjoys the indoor conditions, will probably be Federer's second round opponent but he has a 0-11 career record against the Fed Express.
The former world number eight has a decent record here though, having won the title in 2007 and reaching the final two years ago.
Others in the top half include the returning Paul-Henri Mathieu, for whom this will be his second ATP Tour event since his comeback from injury, Feliciano Lopez, home favourite Robin Haase, the fading Nikolay Davydenko, and mercurial Frenchman Richard Gasquet.
The 'Gasman' was one of many of the top-20 players who skipped Davis Cup this weekend, but he's showing no signs of improvement so far in 2012 and will probably reach the last eight or possibly the semis at best this week.
The bottom half is much tougher to call with Berdych and Del Potro the obvious favourites, but also worth consideration are fast court specialist Michael Llodra, everyone's favourite racquet destructor Marcos Baghdatis, Serbia's Viktor Troicki, Marcel Granollers, Phillip Kohlschreiber and veteran Ivan Ljubicic.
Veteran Croatian, Ljubicic, enjoys Rotterdam where he has been twice a finalist and twice a semi finalist and it wouldn't be a huge shock if he found some form here this week and [90.0] is too big a price for a player of his class in these conditions, despite his advancing age.
Llodra won this in 2008 and will also enjoy the conditions, but his long flight back from Canada and opening match against Del Potro puts me off the [140.0] available about the Frenchman.
Berdych is a live contender based on his improved showing in 2012 and at around [7.0] he's not a bad shout, but he's never won back-to-back titles in his career on the ATP Tour and it's hard to see him starting now after winning in Montpelier last week.
Del Potro has been resting since Melbourne and is yet to win a title on indoor hard, but his draw looks pretty decent with Troicki and Ljubicic probably his main rivals.
But back on his favoured surface I can see Federer erasing the memory of the Davis Cup and obliging at around [2.2] at a tournament where, although he rarely plays here, he has a 17-5 record.
Recommended Bet
Long shot
Working out who is going to win each quarter is half of the way to working out how to make a profit on the winner market of this event. Gary Boswell separates the value back-to-lays from the poor value bets....
This event does of course lack the glamour of the Australian Open just gone but there's a lively outsider who can come good for us if he's in the mood. Over to you, Guillermo....
The world's best are in Australia ahead of the first grand slam of the year and it's one of the most improved tennis players of 2011 who is attracting tipster Sean Calvert's money after hitting a big winner last week...
No comments:
Post a Comment