Find Me A 100 Winner 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Mark Wilson looks over-priced prior to this week’s big WGC event
"It is baffling how five-times PGA Tour winner Mark Wilson continues to be under-estimated, having won the Humana Challenge only three starts ago and twice last year, including the Phoenix Open in the state of Arizona."
It's a different format this week but the aim remains the same, to find a triple price winner. Paul Krishnamurty marks our card on the best outsiders to back at this week's Match Play event in Arizona.
All good runs must come to an end somewhere. Having backed Bryce Molder at [150.0] last week, when he begun Sunday playing in the final group, it really wasn't asking much to get our lay order matched at the first target of [10.0].
Molder was indeed matched but only for £84, which isn't really enough to be recorded as a winner, so despite a great start to the season, the yearly stats had to take a hit.
Hopefully we can resume winning ways at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship - an event which requires a slightly different tack to usual. Of course we're still looking for triple-figure priced players who might plausibly win the title, but an extra critical factor this week is the draw.
Firstly, the plan is to pick one player from each bracket, therefore keeping the dream alive of having all four semi-finalists, even if in reality, just getting one would be nice! Secondly, winning their first three matches may well be enough for any of my four picks to hit the first lay target and secure an overall profit, so their early draw paths are key to my thinking.
Beginning in the Bobby Jones Bracket, Mark Wilson is ridiculously over-priced at [160.0]. Luke Donald is red-hot favourite in this section, but even assuming the world number one and defending champ makes early progress, Wilson needn't worry about him until the quarter-finals. Prior to that he has a perfectly winnable opener against Bo Van Pelt, and then worst ways some bigger names with poor tournament records such as Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson. In any case, it is baffling how five-times PGA Tour winner Wilson continues to be under-estimated, having won the Humana Challenge only three starts ago and twice last year, including the Phoenix Open in the state of Arizona.
The Ben Hogan Bracket presents a headache for this column. Only five in this section are within our price range, and of those, only two made any appeal. YE Yang is marginally preferred to Kevin Na on the basis of their weekend performances. Whereas Yang found some form with the putter, Na finished terribly at Riviera with 77/78. [140.0] is a big price about a major winner, especially one with a stellar record in Arizona, who made the quarter-finals last year. Yang's opening match is an intriguing re-match against one of last year's victims, Graeme McDowell.
Another South Korean player is selected in the Gary Player Bracket, where Kyung-Tae Kim catches the eye at [180.0] on the basis of an impressive matchplay performance in the Presidents Cup. Playing under the limelight of the opening final day singles match, against the massively in-form Webb Simpson, Kim took the pressure in his stride and upset the odds. Equally the previous evening, he and Yang showed their matchplay mettle to upset Tiger Woods and Dustin Johnson in fourballs. First-round opponent Anders Hansen has no pedigree in this event, and although the odds are he'll face Rory McIlroy in round two, Ireland's finest has an indifferent matchplay record too.
Finally, Fredrik Jacobson at [120.0] in the Sam Snead Bracket on what will be his first crack at the event since 2005. Following a short injury lay-off, Freddy opened his 2012 campaign with a decent 13th place at Riviera, saving the best round for last and prompting high hopes that he can carry on where he left off last year, when closing with consecutive top-three finishes. His classy scrambling skills should be a useful asset in matchplay, and a 50% past win ratio in this event is fairly encouraging too. Most importantly from our trading perspective, Jacobson is fancied to win an all-Swedish opening round match on Wednesday against Robert Karlsson, who is out of form and has a poor tournament record.
The trading advice is to lay out seven units in total, then place two lay orders for 20 units at [8.0] and [3.0]. Reaching the quarter-finals and then taking an early lead would probably be enough to hit the first target and bank a 13 unit profit.
Recommended bets
Place order to lay each player 20u @ [8.0]
Place order to lay each player 20u @ [3.0]
Updated 2012 Stats: +52 units
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