Premier League 
/ Lee Dixon / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Danger man. Gareth Bale needs to be monitored closely.
"They’ve (Liverpool) beaten the big guns in both Cup competitions as well as in the league, yet found it hard to beat the seemingly easier teams, more often than not, at home."
Spurs are the better side at the moment but home advantage should provide a good leveller again and the smart money is on a result that would please both managers. A draw it is, says Lee Dixon.
Before a ball had been kicked in anger, many were predicting that it would be Liverpool who would improve significantly on last year's finish (sixth) and that Spurs would probably finish in a very similar position to last year's fifth. But here we are, almost exactly two thirds into the season and it's Tottenham who have made all the progress, sitting pretty in third, not yet out of the title race and looking good for a Champions League place at the very least. As for Liverpool, they've had a strange sort of season. Steven Gerrard has been out injured for most of it; they lost the grossly under-rated Lucas to injury; Andy Carroll has spent most of the time on the bench; and other big money signings like Charlie Adam and Jordan Henderson are yet to find their best form. They've beaten the big guns in both Cup competitions as well as in the league, yet found it hard to beat the seemingly easier teams, more often than not, at home.
A win here for either side would be a huge boost, no doubt about that.
One of the keys to this match will be how much Gareth Bale sees of the ball. If he receives it in space and has a chance to run at defenders at pace, Liverpool could be in all sorts of trouble. Goals, crosses, cards, penalties, they all come into the equation. Bale is often accused of not performing often enough: looking brilliant one day and mediocre the next. But every time I've seen him play live this season he's been very impressive. Not quite good enough to have got my vote for Player Of The Season - the Betfair market has got that one right with David Silva very much the front-runner - but pretty good nonetheless.
This is a really tough match to call. A case could be made for Liverpool given that they were excellent away at Wolves in midweek and very professional in knocking Manchester United out of the FA Cup the weekend before last. The fact that they're one of only two sides who are unbeaten at home in the league seems to suggest they're very unlikely to get beat here.
As for Spurs, well I've touched already on the fact that they've been much the better team this campaign and got a monkey off their backs when a comfortable 2-0 win at Anfield last season ended a run of 16 Premier League away games at Liverpool without a victory (Opta). They've also lost just twice in their last ten away matches so the stats support the premise that losing here would be going against the grain.
We profited from backing the draw in Chelsea v Manchester United because we felt that the away side was the better team but that home advantage would provide a good leveller for Chelsea. I'm not sure many would have imagined the match would have panned out the way it did but the reasoning behind the bet was right and we should take the same approach again here. Back the stalemate at [3.55].
One of the ongoing debates this season has been around what Liverpool's best XI is. Glen Johnson, Daniel Agger, Martin Skrtel and Jose Enrique would be my defenders. Lucas has been sorely missed because Liverpool don't really have anyone with those exact same characteristics in their squad but Steven Gerrard's return gives them some proper steel in the heart of midfield. I like Craig Bellamy out wide and even though he's been a little inconsistent, I think Charlie Adam's range of passing makes him an automatic choice, too. Luis Suarez is their best attacking player and his return from suspension is massive to Liverpool. But beyond that it's hard to say who should play and where and perhaps therein lies one of Liverpool's problems.
I think they'll go 4-4-2 here tonight and I'm not expecting a repeat of yesterday with the floodgates opening in terms of goals. Spurs' defence is somewhat under-rated and they don't concede many themselves so unders is quite a confident selection at [1.99]. Those who are already on the draw may not want to double up on 1-1 at [7.8] but that would be my idea of the most likely scoreline.
Only Kenny Dalglish knows whether he intends to hand Luis Suarez a start tonight. But whether he does or doesn't, I think Andy Carroll may well keep his place in the team. In truth he hasn't made the best of his chance whilst the Uruguyan has been out suspended but he did score away at Wolves and that may have just been the goal he needed to get his confidence back. It's not my strongest bet of the night but if he does start, a quote of [10.0] about him may look pretty big once the game is under way.
2 pts Back the draw at [3.55]
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ [1.98]
1 pt Back 1-1 at [7.8]
1 pt Back Andy Carroll to be first goalscorer at [10.0]
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