General Politics Betting 
/ Jack Houghton / 17 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Casually-coifed buffoonery: voters beginning to tire of Johnson's antics?
"The Conservative-led Government are unpopular among moderates and Johnson will struggle to distance himself from his Westminster brethren."
Despite what the market might be saying, Livingstone should now be favourite for mayoral race, writes Jack Houghton.
Ears piqued politicos, it's pub quiz time.
Question one. Guess the year.
An eccentric, populist Tory, prone to gimmicky publicity stunts. An unpopular Conservative national government, two years into a term of cut-backs and austerity measures, facing rising unemployment and dwindling moderate support. Tension between the Metropolitan Police and ethnic London communities leading to the worst riots in recent memory. Ken Livingstone emerging victorious in May elections to lead the London authority.
The answer, you may have guessed, is 1981.
Question two. Are we set for a repeat in 2012?
The similarities between the casually-coifed Boris Johnson and the bow-tied and bearded Sir Horace Cutler - leader of the GLC between 1977 and 1981 - are easy to draw: both flamboyant Tories; both courtiers of the popular press. And, just as Cutler did in 1981, Johnson now faces Ken Livingstone against the backdrop of an unpopular Tory-led government, and as the man-on-watch when riots lit up the capital.
At a generous looking [2.76], then, no-longer-red-Ken looks a solid bet to regain the mayorship on May 3.
Question three. Why back Ken?
[Note to quizmaster: one mark for each of the following...]
The Conservative-led Government are unpopular among moderates and Johnson will struggle to distance himself from his Westminster brethren. In any election to a devolved body, national politics is a key determiner of voter behaviour. And although Johnson has tried to distance himself from his masters' cuts, opposition parties will constantly remind voters that Johnson campaigned for those masters at the last General Election. When Livingstone was defeated in 2008, it was thought to be largely due to him losing a swathe of swing voters disenchanted with the tail-end of New Labour. Many of those will now come back to him.
Voters have begun to tire of Johnson's buffoonery. I'm not a huge fan of opinion polls, but it's interesting that, despite Livingstone taking a lead in the last two conducted, it is Johnson's price that has shortened of late - albeit only narrowly. Of particular note, though, are not the headline polling numbers, but the significant decline they show, from polls conducted last summer, in how many voters view Johnson as "Strong" and "In touch with the concerns of ordinary people." A series of public order debacles (the most significant being the London riots of August 2011) and a panoply of public relations gaffs (from Damian Green to Chicken Feed to Veronica Wadley to Helen Macintyre) have given Johnson's opposition the perfect tools with which to beat him when campaigning gets going.
The supplementary vote system should favour Livingstone. Even if Johnson is able to win the first preference ballot, it is likely that Livingstone, sweeping up the majority of second preference votes from Liberal Democrat and Green supporters, will win the overall count.
*****
Over in the US, the race for the Republican nomination continues to fascinate. Back at the start of the year, I put up Romney as a lay at [1.30], saying that shifting allegiances could yet see Romney struggle. Since then, under a Gingrich charge, Romney has drifted out to [1.84], hardened back in to [1.13], and now, with Super Tuesday a fortnight away, is back out to [1.45]. It's now getting harder to assess the value in the market, and so I've traded out of my position on Romney for a small profit.
I suggest you do the same. Use your money instead to go back in on Obama to win a second term. Put up at [1.87] here at the start of January, Obama has since hardened into [1.58]. But that price still looks generous: the Republican candidates continue to trash-talk each other on a daily basis and it would take some inept campaigning from Obama's team to be unable to capitalise on that in the Presidential election.
Recommendations:
4pts back Ken Livingstone at [2.76] to win London Mayoral Election.
5pts back Obama at [1.58] to be Next President.
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