Pakistan v England 
/ Ed Hawkins / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Kevin Pietersen's inability to play spin is a huge concern for England
"It is impossible to recommend England following their implosion in the second innings in Abu Dhabi when they were shot out for 72"
Ed Hawkins has lost patience with England and can't understand why Pakistan are not favourites for the third match, which starts in Dubai on Friday
Pakistan
Pakistan, not surprisingly, are expected to be unchanged following their sensational victory in the second Test at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi last week.
Umar Gul, who felt his calf in the first innings in that game, is fit while Asad Shafiq's 58 and 43 - vital contributions - secure his spot just as there were whispers that Umar Akmal would come into the team.
England
Ian Bell should be fit despite suffering from a stomach bug. Bell's place is apparently not under threat despite a return of 36 runs in four innings.
England, surely, will look to replace Eoin Morgan with Ravi Bopara. Morgan has 41 runs in the series and although he is faring marginally better than Bell he is considered more vulnerable because he is newest to the team.
In that thinking you may have hit upon a weakness in the England camp. Batsmen are given chance after chance and there is a strong case for saying Kevin Pietersen should sit this one out. He has only 17 runs.
No matter. England must jettison one of the underperforming three. Reputation and past performances should count for little. The management should decide who remains purely on the basis of who is most likely to counter the spin of Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman. They can't all survive on that basis.
Venue and conditions
One could be forgiven for reckoning that we have a pretty good idea of how the Dubai surface will play given this was the venue for the first Test. But in reality England were so abject that it is hard to tell. The match lasted barely three days as England succumbed to spin. In their two innings 14 wickets fell to Ajmal and Rehman. So it will spin then. Otherwise Pakistan batted reasonably well on it, posting 338.
Match odds
It is impossible to recommend England following their implosion in the second innings in Abu Dhabi when they were shot out for 72. Ajmal and Rehman, the spin threat, have got into the heads of the England batsmen and when that happens the torment can only continue.
England are [2.76] favourites which seems ludicrous given that they have twice been outplayed. Pakistan are [2.86] and the draw is [3.45]. One wonders what it will take for the market to realise that in these conditions England are vastly inferior.
The best advice for a wager is to back Pakistan with a view to laying off, just in case they take things easy with this being a dead rubber. There have been positive noises coming out of the camp this week, though, claiming they are "desperate" to win 3-0. At least at some stage the spinners should given them a stranglehold to make the trade pay.
As for England, their spirits are good, apparently. James Anderson, rather curiously, said: "The mood is pretty good, considering the position we're are in in this series."
Top Pakistan batsman
Mohammad Hafeez and Misbah-ul-Haq are almost neck and neck in the race to be top Pakistan batsman in the series. Hafeez, who has 156 runs, is around [5.00] for honours in the first innings. Misbah, on 148, could go off at around [6.00].
Top England batsman
As we have written before in this series Bell, Morgan and Pietersen are unbackable in this market and you can probably chuck in Andrew Strauss, too. The first three have no clue as to how to play spin. Certainly Morgan looks the most clueless, if you'll pardon the clumsy expression. It is to be hoped he plays because he would represent a solid lay in the to score a 50 in the first innings market.
Recommended bet
Back to lay Pakistan @ [2.86] in 3rd Test
He's far from being the most obvious candidate for a Test captain but Misbah Ul Haq's tenure as leader of the Pakistan cricket team has been remarkable, especially in the longest format. What's the secret, wonders Frank Gregan....
Ed Hawkins says England's defeat in Abu Dhabi shows how they have taken their position as the No 1-ranked side for granted...
Tourists lose from a winnable position as Pakistan spinners cast their spell...
No comments:
Post a Comment