The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Kyle Stanley – Much happier this week
“Very occasionally someone bursts onto the scene that looks the real deal and Kyle Stanley is most definitely one of those.”
Pre-event pick Ben Crane comes up a shot shy but Steve was still happy to see Kyle Stanley win in Phoenix and he couldn't have been more impressed by Paul Lawrie's success in Qatar...
Paul Lawrie won his second Qatar Masters in quite brilliant style yesterday. Having started the day with a one shot lead, he shot a very impressive seven under-par final round to pull clear and win by four. The last time he won in Qatar, in 1999, he went on to win the Open Championship. Could lightening strike twice? He's a [48.0] shot to win at Royal Lytham & St Annes in July.
Over in the States, last week's final round collapse victim, Kyle Stanley, became this week's hero. He relinquished a five-shot lead at the Farmers Insurance Open, losing a three-shot lead on the final hole, but it hasn't taken him long to gain redemption. Spencer Levin had gone into yesterday's final round with a six shot lead but the fiery character was soon struggling and although he made a series of lengthy par saves around the turn, the writing was on the wall and he eventually shot a four over-par 75 to lose by two.
My Bets
The Qatar Masters was a very frustrating tournament. When I first looked at the event, Paul Lawrie was very much on the radar but I really wanted around [80.0] about him. He was most impressive yesterday but that was the first time I'd ever seen him play so well in-contention. He was in form and had great course form but given his very low win ratio, I just couldn't justify taking around [60.0] about him - though I obviously regret not doing so now! And even before the final round I felt he was the most likely winner but I still didn't get him onside. Oh well.
The WM Phoenix Open worked out much better though and thanks to Spencer Levin's collapse and pre-event pick, Ben Crane's strong challenge, I managed to make a profit on the week.
When Levin poured in par saves at the 9th and 10th holes from over ten feet I wondered whether he might be able to rally and hang on but he didn't and given I'd layed Levin during round three, prior to round four, and yet again during round four at heavy odds on, Stanley's win was a great result, though Crane, who finished a shot shy of Stanley in second place, would have been far better.
I'd backed ten before the off and Crane was by far the best of them. He came out of the blocks like a scalded cat yesterday and was four under par through as many holes but he played his next eight in one over. I did manage to lay a bit back at [6.6] but I was certainly shouting him on at the end.
Players to watch
Very occasionally someone bursts onto the scene that looks the real deal and Kyle Stanley is most definitely one of those. I thought he looked impressive at the Farmers for much of the weekend and felt he was unlucky to get into so much trouble at the last. Although I wanted Crane, I couldn't help but enjoy watching Stanley get his maiden win so soon after last week's debacle and I can see him winning again soon.
Players to swerve
Nicolas Colsaerts was again poor in the mix, shooting level par in the easy conditions and putting poorly.
Five under when playing in the final group to finish tied second looks like a very solid effort at first glance but I'd still be a bit wary of Peter Hanson in-contention. He was pedestrian early on, paring the first seven holes, and he played the last five holes in four under, once his chance was well and truly gone.
Whilst in the States, the big names that were supposed to put pressure on Levin were Webb Simpson and Bubba Watson. Playing in the final three-ball alongside Levin, both men failed to put an ounce of pressure on and Webb, in-particular, could be one not to bother with too often. The problem with Simpson is that he's very consistent and he'll head many a market in the near future but he reminds me a bit of Matt Kuchar in that he'll bob around the leaderboard on plenty of occasions without winning often. I'm not saying he won't win but I don't think he's likely to be any value to do so anytime soon.
This week's two events are the Dubai Desert Classic and the A T & T Pebble Beach National and I'll be back tomorrow with previews for each.
Steve takes a look at the state of play in Qatar, where he fancies a low round from someone might just nick it. And in the States, there's a warning for anyone tempted by the current leader......
Our man takes it easy from the get-go with just the ten picks! What will it take to win the W M Phoenix Open? See what Steve thinks here......
It's going to be a blustery week in Qatar, so who has the best draw? And what does it take to win around Doha? Read Steve's event preview here......
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