Premier League 
/ Andrew Atherley / 08 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Stephane Sessegnon has bee superb since O'Neill's arrival at Sunderland
"While it is sensible to downgrade Sunderland’s form a little, the recent statistical evidence is that Saturday’s match is more even than the odds indicate."
Sunderland's form since Martin O'Neill has been in charge has been incredible and they're a good bet to get the better of Arsenal on Saturday. Elsewhere, this week's several 'six pointers' will give us a good indication of who's going down come May.
Take a look at the latest Premier League table before rushing to judgment over Saturday's match at the Stadium of Light between Sunderland and Arsenal.
Not the table for the season so far, which has Arsenal in sixth place and Sunderland seven points behind in eighth. Instead, look at the form table in the 10 matches since Martin O'Neill took charge at Sunderland.
That tells a different story. Manchester United are top but Sunderland are behind them only on goal difference, with Manchester City third and Tottenham fourth. Arsenal, meanwhile, have been far from a top-four or even a top-six side in that period - they rank 10th over the past 10 matches, behind even Norwich and Swansea.
Sunderland's form under O'Neill indicates they are underestimated at win odds of [3.65] against Arsenal. Their only defeats for the new manager have been on the road, against Tottenham and Chelsea, and they are clearly a top-half side on merit, even if we accept they are not really Champions League material.
Arsenal's form against top-half sides is patchy at best. Overall they have won four and lost six out of 11 in that category, with two wins and four defeats out of seven on the road. Sunderland, meanwhile, have won three and lost two out of five at home to top-half teams, but it is notable that the wins were for O'Neill (all to nil) and the defeats for Steve Bruce, his predecessor.
While it is sensible to downgrade Sunderland's form a little, the recent statistical evidence is that Saturday's match is more even than the odds indicate. Arsenal's 5-3 win at Chelsea is their only success away to a team placed as high as Sunderland and they rank only 11th on away form, with the third-highest goals against on the road.
The Gunners look poor favourites and solid Sunderland rate a decent bet off +0&+0.5 on the Asian handicap at [2.04].
'Relegation six-pointer' is likely to be the most over-used phrase of the weekend - even more than Jamie Redknapp's liberal sprinklings of 'literally' in his punditry - as Blackburn host QPR, Wigan make the short trip to Bolton and Wolves square up to West Brom in the Black Country derby.
In Redknapp's language, of course, this weekend's three showdowns involving the Premier League's bottom six will be 'literally' six-pointers, but behind the cliché there is more than an element of truth to the importance of relegation clashes.
In the past five seasons, 12 of the 15 relegated teams have been in the bottom three of the 'mini-league' involving the bottom six and the team finishing bottom of that mini-league has gone down each time.
This season Bolton and West Brom are top of the mini-league of the current bottom six, with 10 points apiece from five games. Wolves also have 10 points but have played a game more. QPR have eight points (but have played the most games - seven) and Wigan seven points (from six games).
Blackburn have fared badly with no win from five games (three of which were at home) and it's no wonder they are [1.47] to back in the relegation market.
In this weekend's clashes, the teams to side with appear to be Bolton (only one defeat in five in the mini-league and with most of their home games to come), QPR (who are open to improvement and can exploit Blackburn's home weakness) and West Brom, who have taken four points out of six on the road against other bottom-six teams.
Pick of the stats
Fulham v Stoke
Six of the seven Premier League meetings have had under 2.5 goals
Wolves v West Brom
West Brom have won 11 and lost only three of the last 20 Black Country derbies
Recommendations
Sunderland off +0&+0.5 on the Asian handicap v Arsenal at [2.04]
Bolton to beat Wigan at [2.04]
West Brom off -0 on the Asian handicap v Wolves at [2.10]
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