Europa League 
/ Michael Cox / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
What does Marcelo Bielsa have planned for the second leg?
"Athletic take a one-goal lead into the second leg, but their approach is unlikely to be more conservative than in Manchester"
If this is anything like as exciting as the first leg, we'll be in for a treat. Michael Cox previews the second meeting between Marcelo Bielsa and Sir Alex Ferguson.
Athletic Bilbao v Manchester United; Thursday 6:00pm, Channel 5.
Match odds: Athletic Bilbao [2.82], Manchester United [2.58], The Draw [3.75].
Manchester United were flattered by their 3-2 defeat to Athletic last week. The Basque side were the better team for long periods, constantly pressing high up the pitch, winning the ball quickly and playing rapid combinations through the Manchester United defence. They could have scored many more.
The starting XI selected by Sir Alex Ferguson that night was ill-equipped to deal with Athletic's energy and passing skills, with the central midfield combination of Ryan Giggs and Phil Jones looking particularly uncomfortable, and lacking in mobility. Things got better when Michael Carrick and Anderson came on in the second half, and Carrick is a decent bet to start in Bilbao, despite the fact that he can struggle against sides that pressure him quickly. Anderson has been ruled out, and might not feature again this season.
What Ferguson really needs there is mobility to compete with the pressing of Marcelo Bielsa's side. Therefore, a rare central midfield role for Park Ji-Sung is not unthinkable after Giggs' struggles in the first leg. At the back, Ferguson said in Wednesday's press conference that Rafael, Rio Ferdinand and Jonny Evans will start, presumably with Patrice Evra at left-back.
Ferguson's major decisions are higher up the pitch. Ashley Young is in good form and should start on the left, and Wayne Rooney is a certainty. But upfront Javier Hernandez struggled in front of goal in the first leg, and Danny Welbeck hasn't scored since January. Athletic's high line means pace is a must, and Hernandez edges out Welbeck in that respect. Welbeck was fielded on the right at the weekend but Antonio Valencia might be a good bet there on his return from injury, especially as he'll defend better against the attack-minded left-back Jon Aurtenetxe.
There are three selection decisions for Bielsa. At the back, the hotheaded Fernando Amorebieta is back from suspension and will probably start as the left-sided centre-back. Bielsa has two choices here - he could move Javi Martinez forward into his more established central midfield role, but Bielsa likes his pace and distribution skills from the back, so Amorebieta could simply replace Mikel San Jose.
There are two injury worries further forward. Fernando Llorente is a doubt, though one would expect him to be risked even if not fully fit. His replacement would be Gaizka Toquero, who is one of the most hard-working, energetic forwards in Spain, but doesn't possess Llorente's aerial power or finishing ability. Toquero would make Athletic better at pressing, but less potent in front of goal.
Oscar De Marcos, the versatile player who generally plays a box-to-box midfield role, is another doubt. His absence could be solved by moving Martinez forward to form a three with Ander Iturraspe and Ander Herrera, or Iker Muniain could come inside from the left.
Athletic take a one-goal lead into the second leg, but their approach is unlikely to be more conservative than in Manchester. Expect Bielsa to instruct his side to press heavily from the start, and establish their superiority with the ball from an early stage. There will be a fierce atmosphere at the legendary San Mames stadium, and I'll back a goal within the first ten minutes, at [4.5].
Athletic will continue to play with a very high defensive line, and for United to compete in midfield, I think they'll have to do the same too, pushing Jonny Evans and Rio Ferdinand up the pitch. With both sides playing this way, it should be fast-paced and scrappy in the midfield, which might force the referee into action more than usual. The booking market is tempting, but a red card is also a strong possibility - with more chance of desperate last-man tackles when strikers try to get in behind the defence, there's every chance someone could be dismissed for denying a clear goalscoring opportunity, though at [4.0] it's not particularly tempting to back.
As far as the corners market goes, Athletic should be strong favourites - they 'won' that statistic 8-3 in the first leg. It looks like you'll be able to back them at odds against, so anything around [2.2] would be a good back here.
Recommended bets:
0-10 minutes in 'First Goal Odds' at [4.5]
Athletic Bilbao in 'Corners Match Bet' at [2.2]
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