The Cheltenham Festival 
/ Jack Houghton / 10 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Sprinter Sacre may be odds-on, but he will struggle to win the Arkle
"When you have an hour in the morning to get your kid to nursery, get your bets on, and get to work, you need to use your time efficiently."
When it comes to the Cheltenham Festival, not everyone has the time for hours of form study, but that doesn't mean you can't have a profitable few days. Just follow these simple rules, writes Jack Houghton.
There was a time when I could sit for hours, pouring over Festival form, and argue I was working. Then I left Betfair. My new office has no television, no Racing Posts, no internet access to any sites of interest, and no-one stopping-by my desk to ask if Hurricane Fly is under-priced in the Champion Hurdle.
This year, as for the last five, my Cheltenham Festival experience will be the same as that of most racing fans: I'll place my bets in the morning and go to work, hoping I can shield myself from any results long enough to watch a recording of the action unfold in the evening, as if live. Provided the flashing box under my telly hasn't instead recorded nine episodes of Bob the Builder, as it did last year, that is.
The problem is, that with so much good racing, and so little time, it's hard to properly assess what those morning bets should be. Thankfully, over the last few years, I've adopted some approaches that allow good decision making, even with limited time.
First, I rely heavily on speed ratings. Horses who have not managed to post a fast time are unlikely to cope with the frenetic and sustained pace that characterises most Festival races. I use my own ratings, but any commercially-available speed ratings will do. Find the best speed figure achieved by any horse in the field, and then eliminate any other horse yet to run within 90 per cent of that figure. It's amazing how quickly this reduces the field to a manageable number of more likely contenders and, more importantly, how often it gets rid of severely underpriced "fancies" who go on to bomb.
Second, I eliminate any horse who has run at Cheltenham and not been placed. If I have more time, I use Timeform ratings and instead eliminate any horse who has run at Cheltenham and, in so doing, has failed to return a rating within 10lbs of its best. In each of the last six years, between 80 and 90 per cent of all Festival winners have demonstrated Cheltenham form in this way, or are at least making their track debut.
Third, I take the Betfair SP. Even a cursory glance at past results will tell you that this will outperform anything else available in the market and, unless you are a much better predictor of market movement than me, it will also likely outperform those who try to play in the market directly.
Fourth, I often split my stake and place more than one bet in a race. This might mean backing more than one horse and laying another in the place market (particularly those short-priced ones who have failed the tests above). By spreading your risk, you might reduce your chance of a big win, but you also reduce your chance of a series of crippling defeats. And, particularly relevant for the evening armchair punter, you know that, in most races, you will have something to shout for in the closing stages of most races.
Form purists might argue that these approaches may arbitrarily eliminate a horse from your reckoning that is worth considering - and they'd be absolutely right - but when you have an hour in the morning to get your kid to nursery, get your bets on, and get to work, you need to use your time efficiently.
A working example - the Arkle Chase:
Al Ferof has posted the best speed rating of the field, and only Blackstairmountain, Cue Card, Menorah and Sprinter Sacre get within 90 per cent of it.
Neither Blackstairmountain nor Sprinter Sacre have run within 10lbs of their best, leaving us with Al Ferof, Cue Card and Menorah as the most likely winners.
I'll be having a point on each, as well as laying the odds-on Sprinter Sacre for two points - all at Betfair SP.
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