Daily Tipping 
/ Graham Cunningham / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Al Ferof - a value price in the Arkle?
"I'm not convinced Hurricane Fly has as much in hand of Binocular as the prices suggest and that makes Nicky Henderson's gelding an appealing back-to-lay alternative to the jolly."
It's the biggest betting meeting of the year and the wildest four days of in-play betting in the calendar. Many horses will trade short and lose over the next four days and a select handful will touch huge odds before winning. The right strategy will bring profit from both groups. Can Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham crack the code on day one?
Yes, the hype gets tiresome nowadays and it can all end in anti-climax if you go in under prepared.
However, there is still nothing like a Cheltenham Festival where otherwise sane and sober souls spray money like counterfeit and sup Guinness like it's going out of fashion.
My brief this week is simple. "Keep it tight and get straight to the point" is the motto. So let's try to squeeze this quart into a pint pot.
13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle
No clear pecking order has emerged, hence the wide open market, but Steps To Freedom, Montbazon and Trifolium have much more to recommend them than most.
Steps To Freedom boasts impressive Flat speed and has made a sweet transition to hurdling, while Montbazon is a high cruiser who is improving fast and Trifoleum has thrived in Ireland with an aggressive style of racing on the pace.
Splitting this trio alone is tough and, on balance, this looks one for small stakes.
However, it goes against the grain not to try and get the week off to a flyer so I'll take my chances with Montbazon and Trifolium in the belief that both are capable of being in the mix and trading fairly short when the heat is turned up off the final bend.
14:05 Arkle Chase
Ah, the first of around six Festival "bankers." Sprinter Sacre could be the next superstar of the two mile division, but I'm not heading to this Festival to take odds-on when the horse in question faces a dangerous rival like Al Ferof.
The tactics here look predictable, with Cue Card bowling along in front and Sprinter Sacre help up taking a powerful grip.
But if there is juice in this market it lies with Al Ferof as he bids to improve an excellent Cheltenham record.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit [5.0] and bigger in the run given that he's unlikely to cruise like Sprinter Sacre.
And I wouldn't be surprised to see him trade a great deal shorter up the hill for the simple reason that he is a high-class novice who jumps soundly and comes up this hill with tremendous effect when on song.
15:20 Champion Hurdle
Ah, the second of the "bankers" of the week. Last year's winner Hurricane Fly is clear on Timeform and has the beating of most of these based on his 2011 success and a runaway reappearance win at Leopardstown.
But I'm not convinced he has as much in hand of Binocular as the prices suggest and that makes Nicky Henderson's gelding an appealing back-to-lay alternative to the jolly.
Binocular was the one horse missing from last year's race and, although there have been bumps in the road since his highly impressive 2010 win here, there were clear hints that he's back on track again at Wincanton last time.
I'm keener on Rock On Ruby than Zarkandar of the Nicholls pair, while the freewheeling Overturn has clear back-to-lay potential if allowed his own way, but I can see Binocular and Hurricane Fly running to the last together here.
And the reigning champ might just face his sternest battle for a long while if the former champ truly is back to his best.
16:00 Cross Country Chase
History suggests you need to be Irish with experience of this eccentric track here.
Scotsirish is the fastest horse on show - and his pace could be decisive if he truly stays the trip - but that can't be guaranteed and I'm backing last year's winner Sizing Australia for the simple reason that he has an ideal profile and running style to reward such a strategy.
Scotsirish will creep in rear, while Uncle Junior and Maljimar are also liable to be held up and course specialist Garde Champetre tends to be compromised by a tendency to hit flat spots nowadays.
By contrast, Sizing Australia is perfectly suited to bowling along on the pace to maximise his fine jumping. He was deadly accurate 12 months ago and if he repeats the dose then the chances of him trading at under [3.0] before the holdup merchants come to call are very strong indeed.
16:40 Mares' Hurdle
Some people love the fact that this has turned into a benefit for Quevega, while others feel frustrated that this fairly new addition to the Fez means she can avoid going in against the best males like Big Buck's.
Count me firmly among the latter group and rather than try and get a very solid odds-on chance beaten it's well worth seeking out a "without the favourite" market here.
Kentford Grey Lady is one with clear best of the rest potential. A notably smooth traveller, she's far less exposed than the vast majority of this field and another career best effort here could put her right in the mix.
Recommended Bets
Back Montbazon and Trifolium in the 13:30 and lay off at [4.0] in running
Back Al Ferof in the 14:30 and lay off at [2.5] in running
Back Binocular in the 15:20 and lay off at [3.0] in running
Back Sizing Australia in the 16:00 and lay off at [3.0] in running
Back Kentford Grey Lady each way in the "without Quevega" market
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