Spanish Football 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Bully boys: Osasuna's combative style could make trouble for Real Madrid
"Mendilibar’s been beaten only three times in 23 at the Reyno de Navarra, and only once was the margin of defeat more than an odd goal"
Osasuna will have their claws out for Real Madrid, says Tobias Gourlay, but the Lions of Athletic Bilbao will not roar in Barcelona
Osasuna v Real Madrid
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Osasuna [8.6] Real [1.45] draw [5.0]
After running with the bulls, visiting the Reyno de Navarra is about the next toughest thing you can do in Pamplona. Even the Big Two don't often have it easy: Barca lost 3-2 there last month and Opta reports that Real have scored just once in failing to win any of their last three games away to Osasuna (W0-D1-L2).
Osasuna are having an unusually good season too. Jose Luis Mendilibar's men are unbeaten in six at the moment and nose-bleedingly close to the Champions League places.
Mesut Ozil returns from suspension this weekend, but Real's recent record also suggests it will be a close game. Although Jose Mourinho's men have taken 13 points from 15 on the road, they have won none of those games by more than a single goal.
Mendilibar's been beaten only three times in 23 at the Reyno de Navarra, and only once was the margin of defeat more than an odd goal. What's more, the Big Two between them have only won one of their last ten matches there by a couple of goals or more. The Asian Handicap's the place to go.
Recommended Bet: Back Osasuna +1.5 on the Asian Handicap @ [1.80]
Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Barcelona [1.13] Athletic [26.0] draw [11.0]
Barcelona have won this fixture in each of the last seven seasons and the teams' 2-2 draw in a sodden Bilbao last November stands alone as a reason to suppose they won't emerge victorious once again on Saturday.
Traditionally unable to compete with Barca and Real Madrid for an entire season, Athletic tend to commit their more limited resources to cup competitions. The Basques have an excellent Copa del Rey record - they've won it more times than Real and are in the final again this season - and it seems that a rare dedication to the Europa League is damaging their league performances.
Athletic have impressed the rest of Europe with their performances around the continent - most recently they beat Schalke 4-2 in Germany on Thursday - but Marcelo Bielsa's game-plan demands huge commitments of energy from his players and since beating Manchester United at Old Trafford early this month los Leones have taken one point from 12 in La Liga.
Barca's nine-game winning streak came to an end in Milan on Wednesday, but the performance was good and, with Real's lead at the top down to six points, the motivation to win this match is strong.
Athletic are safe from relegation, have already qualified for Europe next season via the cup and have hardly stepped off the return flight from Germany. Pep Guardiola might rest a couple of players, but Messi should start, all will be keen to put this game to bed early ahead of next week's return match with AC Milan and Barcelona/Barcelona has paid out in nine of their last ten.
A word about the main man: in all competitions, he's scored in 15/18 at the Camp Nou this season, and on each of his last ten appearances. He's scored at least twice in 11 of those games, including five of the most recent six. And he's fired hat-tricks - or better - in 6/18, including each of the last three.
These numbers are without precedent in the history of exchange betting and some of the layers seem to have trouble adjusting to the heightened reality of the little man. Prices around [1.5] To Score, [2.3] To Score 2 Goals or More and [8.0] To Score a Hat-trick are possible and all would be generous.
Recommended Bet: Back Barcelona/Barcelona @ [1.50]
Malaga v Real Betis
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports Xtra)
Malaga [1.7] Betis [5.6] draw [4.0]
Space for just a few words about Saturday's other televised game, but no matter, because the stats say it all: Malaga have won five in a row at La Rosaleda; Real Betis have lost 10/12 on the road.
Recommended Bet: Back Malaga @ [1.7]
*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay
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