The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 09 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Adam Scott – A reluctant in-play bet for The Punter
“Almost every time I’ve backed Scott he’s disappointed me but he had to be sided with at [7.2] here.”
The winds up and it's going to be a tough week. Steve fancies the early pace setters will have a say at the end of the week in Florida and he's reluctantly got one of the first round leaders onside already. Read his thoughts after round one here...
00.10 - March 9, 2012
The forecast suggests that the wind won't be quite as bad over the next three days as it was on day one, but even so, we look set for a real war of attrition around Doral. It was plenty breezy enough yesterday and the leaderboard is packed solid with wind specialists.
Jason Dufner birdied his final hole (the 9th) late in the day to join Adam Scott at the head of affairs on -6 and they're two clear of the rest. Scott had set the early pace with his excellent 66, and it could have been quite a bit better, but for a disappointing finish. Also playing the course back to front, he was seven under par through eleven holes but played the last seven in one over.
If I hadn't meddled just before the off, I'd be more than happy with my lot so far but a last minute back of Phil Mickelson took the shine off the day. I'm a bit of Lefty fan to say the least and I couldn't really work out why he drifted so badly before the off. I couldn't fancy him at [14.0] at the start of the week when the forecast looked atrocious but as the forecast improved slightly, he drifted a lot. I'm not saying he can't play in the wind because he most certainly can but he's always a better bet in calmer conditions so the improving forecast increased his chances in my eyes. Anyway, I couldn't resist [18.5] before the off and so he got added to the eight I'd already backed. He finished up shooting level par and that was about as well as he ever looked like shooting but it's highly unlikely to be good enough as a fast start here looks essential.
I'd pointed out in my preview that the last seven winners have all been right up there from the get-go, with Tiger Woods' win in 2007, from four back after day one, the furthest any winner has been behind at this stage.
Fortunately, three of my pre-event picks are right up there. Both Thomas Bjorn and Charl Schwartzel are tied for third on -4 and Kyle Stanley's in the logjam in a tie for fifth on -3. I thought I'd be getting further involved at this stage and I have, even though I didn't want to! Dufner's still in search of his maiden win so I'm leaving him out for now but I've felt compelled to get Scott onside, even though I really don't like him!
Almost every time I've backed Scott he's disappointed me but he had to be sided with at [7.2] here. Scott has led or been tied for the lead 13 times in the last ten years and he's converted on three of those occasions, including two huge tournaments (last year's WGC Bridgestone and the 2004 Players Championship). Given Dufner's poor record and the fact that three of the last six winners here were in front after day one, I felt I had to get Scott onside, as much as it pains me.
I'm tempted by Aaron Baddeley, he's on -3 and he's the latest in a long line of magnificent Find Me A 100 Winner picks for Paul Krishnamurty in 2012, but I'm going to leave it for now and see what round two brings.
Away from my bets, one round one finish worthy of note was that of Sergio Garcia. The enigmatic Spaniard has had his spells in the doldrums of late and it looks like he could well be heading for another dark phase - he finished absolutely appallingly, bogeying five in-a-row before finding water twice on the treacherous 18th. And to think some poor soul backed him at [7.0] in-running!
Just a quick word on the week's other event - the Puerto Rico Open. More bad news on the last minute bet front I'm afraid. As well as getting Lefty onside at Doral, I also backed Stephen Ames and Jerry Kelly here. Ames was awful, Kelly slightly less so.
Of my pre-event picks, my bright spark so far is Ben Curtis, backed at [80.0], who spent much of the day atop of the leaderboard. Matt Jones and George McNeill sneaked past him late in the day but I'm more than happy with his five under par 67 start.
I don't know whether the organisers have had the European Tour scorers give them hand this week but there were a number of errors, as there are week in and week out on the Race to Dubai. Two of my players had their scores amended way after they'd finished their rounds but for a refreshing change, both went in my favour. Graham DeLaet's was the most pleasing amendment - his one under par 71 was changed to a three under 69. I'd advise a little caution if you're betting in-running here.
WGC Cadillac Championship Pre-Event Bets
Phil Mickelson @ [18.5] (after the preview was published)
Charl Schwartzel @ an average of [34.0]
Rickie Fowler @ [55.0]
Kyle Stanley @ [100.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [160.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [210.0]
Paul Casey @ [250.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [450.0]
Greg Chalmers @ [450.0]
In-Running Bet
Adam Scott @ [7.2]
Puerto Rico Open Pre-Event Bets
Dicky Pride @ [55.0]
Troy Matteson @ [65.0]
Stephen Ames @ [70.0] (after the preview was published)
Jerry Kelly @ [70.0] (after the preview was published)
Ben Curtis @ [80.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [110.0]
Graham DeLaet @ [130.0]
It may well be playing second fiddle to the WGC Cadillac Championship but someone has to win in Puerto Rico. Has Steve found that someone? Read his preview here......
With breezy weather forecast for the second WGC event of the year, our man plumps for an octet of wind specialists at tasty prices, and he also has a plan for day one. Read his preview here......
The Tiger roars again but he still can't eclipse McIlroy, as the youngster wins the Honda Classic in style to top the world rankings......
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