Premier League 
/ Michael Cox / 08 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
The battle for possession in the centre of the pitch will be key
"Arsenal need to make sure they're not caught out by City's clever short corners to the edge of the box"
Both Arsenal and Manchester City need a win in the weekend's biggest Premier League game. Michael Cox doesn't expect too many changes in the line-ups.
Arsenal v Manchester City, Sunday 4:00, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Arsenal [2.44], Man City [3.55], The Draw [3.15].
The last two Arsenal v Manchester City matches at the Emirates have finished 0-0 - but both were played when City had a very different mentality, when they were content with a point in a match like this. Now, with Manchester United likely to have extended their lead to eight points by the time this game kicks off, City really need a win.
Therefore, Roberto Mancini has some big decisions ahead of this match. The biggest question is whether Sergio Aguero is fit to return from injury - if so, he'll start behind the main forward in a 4-2-3-1. If not (which seems more likely), David Silva will probably move inside into that playmaking role. Samir Nasri and James Milner would be a good bet for the flanks, with Mario Balotelli upfront. Despite question marks over the Italian's mentality, Mancini prefers him to Edin Dzeko in big games.
Arsenal's side will probably feature no more than one change from last weekend, despite the defeat to Queens Park Rangers. Aaron Ramsey was poor in an unfamiliar role out on the left, and I think Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain might get a start here instead. Arsene Wenger fielded the youngster in that position at home to Manchester United, and he was arguably the game's key player.
So where will the main battles be? The first issue is possession - Arsenal have more of the ball at home than any side in the league (60.8%), while City enjoy more than any side away (58.3%). Neither are used to the opposition dominating, and I think we'll see a patient midfield battle at the start, while both try to establish superiority.
Arsenal will try to get Tomas Rosicky into space between the lines, but City are generally quite tight in that zone. Instead, a bigger threat might be the rotation of Arsenal's midfield trio - Alex Song has increasingly become a playmaker and moved ahead of Mikel Arteta. Watch for Song's diagonal balls into the space behind Vincent Kompany for Robin van Persie's run.
Another key player - and another likely to combine with van Persie - is Theo Walcott. In a game where the wide players will generally be looking to come inside, I think Walcott could be of real value here by staying wide and high up against his old teammate Gael Clichy. However, as the Frenchman has only picked up four bookings all season (including two in the same match at Chelsea), I'll stay clear of backing him to be shown a card.
At the other end, I think City might try to exploit the space in behind Thomas Vermaelen. The Belgian looks to storm into tackles high up the pitch, and if it's Silva in that deep-lying position, Vermaelen will be drawn too high up from the defence (a mistake he made a couple of times against QPR last week). Balotelli would be the right man to take advantage of that space in the channels.
The second approach will be looking for space between the Arsenal midfield and defence - while Song's attacking contribution this season has been excellent, he and Arteta can neglect their defensive responsibilities, and Arsenal's full-backs don't like being drawn into central positions. I can imagine a Silva coming inside to play a through-ball, and Balotelli running into the ball for a one-on-one.
The corners market is interesting - Arsenal are the favourites, and City will probably look to defend very deep and force Arsenal down the outside. However, in the home game against Manchester United, Arsenal didn't force a single corner, and if Ramsey plays on the left there'll be little chance of him moving towards the byline. That market is very unpredictable, but on the subject of corners, Arsenal need to make sure they're not caught out by City's clever short corners to the edge of the box, something they've triedin recent weeks, particularly from the left.
Instead, I'll look at the number of goals. City's last seven away Premier League games have seen under 2.5 goals, while Arsenal's main threat Robin van Persie hasn't found the net for 350 minutes, something a drought by his standards. Under 2.5 goals at [2.3] gets my backing.
Recommended bet:
Back under 2.5 goals at [2.3]
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