Premier League 
/ Soccer Widow / 01 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Antonio Valencia has been excellent since returning from injury but he and United will have their work cut out on Monday night
"The reason for this difference is probably because half the world is betting on the favourite to come good, and United’s win odds are once again way below their true value. In this game, the value bettor can decide whether to lay Manchester or to back the draw, with relatively small stakes and therefore not much risk."
The cold-hearted stats of Soccer Widow have spoken and the value lies with laying Manchester United or better still, backing the draw. Read on to find out why...
Monday night sees another huge game in the title race for Manchester United, whilst Blackburn Rovers try to distance themselves from the other relegation candidates. With Wigan, QPR and Bolton all winning on Saturday this relegation dogfight looks set to go to the wire.
Rovers and United have been local rivals since the nineteenth century, first playing each other competitively in 1892. 120 years on, and Blackburn are hoping these local derby meetings continue for some time to come as they cling on desperately to their Premier League status.
Although United have been at the pinnacle of English football for 20-years, Blackburn have of course also won a title during this period and always prove difficult opponents for the Red Devils. With Wayne Rooney dropped for a social transgression before the last encounter between these teams, it is absolutely certain that barring a late injury, he will face Blackburn this time.
Rovers took advantage of his unexpected but welcome absence from United's line-up plus a make-shift back-four containing Michael Carrick and Antonio Valencia during a well-documented injury crisis, all of which contributed to Rover's celebrated 2-3 victory at Old Trafford on New Year's Eve. Indeed, in 12 head-to-head matches at Ewood Park since 1999 in all competitions, United have only mustered two victories.
United's away form continues to be impressive with 11 wins from 15 matches played, which is more than double Blackburn's home wins for the season to date (just five victories). Despite this disparity it is certain that a full-house of over 31,000 fans will be at the game, most of them hoping that Blackburn can pull off another upset. With Wolves' apparent demise on Saturday, Blackburn's chances of staying up have improved from 40 to 50% even before a ball is kicked against United. That said, one relegation spot now looks filled, leaving the teams in 16th to 19th place dancing around four musical chairs, half of them strategically placed over ever-loosening trap-doors...
Salient statistics for the betting recommendations...
Head-To-Head (Blackburn Rovers home, Manchester United away: 12 matches since 1999, all competitions):
•Blackburn three wins (25%), seven draws (58.3%), United two wins (16.7%)
•Last six (most recent first): D-D-A-D-A-H
•United clean sheets: four (33.3%)
•Under 3.5 goals: 10 times in last 12 meetings (83.33%)
Blackburn Rover's last 25 Premier League home games:
•Eight wins (32%); five draws (20%), 12 defeats (48%)
•Last six (most recent first): W-D-W-L-W-L
•Opposition clean sheets: eight (32%)
•Under 3.5 goals: 18 times in last 25 home games (72%)
Manchester United's last 25 Premier League away games:
•14 wins (56%); six draws (24%); Five defeats (20%)
•Last six (most recent first): W-W-W-D-W-L
•Clean sheets: 10 (40%)
•Under 3.5 goals: 16 times in last 25 away games (64%)
Summary:
As mentioned, Blackburn are always a hard nut to crack for United and from 12 recent head-to-head encounters, seven finished in draws (58.3%). Soccer Widow calculates a mathematical probability for the draw in this game at 40.2%, whilst the market is offering odds corresponding to an 18.9% chance.
The reason for this difference is probably because half the world is betting on the favourite to come good, and United's win odds are once again way below their true value. In this game, the value bettor can decide whether to lay Manchester or to back the draw, with relatively small stakes and therefore not much risk. Soccer Widow has decided to back the draw to balance her portfolio of bets in this probability cluster group.
In the head-to-head matches we've looked at, there were only four in which Blackburn did not manage to score at least one goal and the calculated probability from the recent data makes a United clean sheet just a 25% chance.
As ever, Soccer Widow's predictions are made with just a cold-hearted computer spreadsheet, and gut-feeling never enters the equation. The New Year's Eve recommendation of backing Blackburn at odds of [32.0] was based purely on statistics and mathematics.
Value Betting Recommendations:
•Back "Draw at full-time" (odds [5.3], 'true' odds [2.5], value 112.9%, probability: 40.2%)
•Back "Under 3.5 goals" (odds [1.58], 'true' odds 1.32, value 20%, probability: 75.7%)
As ever, good luck with your wagers and never bet more than you can afford to lose
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