“Punters are always over-optimistic about players still out on the course, expecting birdies when in reality, pars are good. On tough tracks, those that come from off the pace and post a target are nearly always too big and Boo most certainly was last night. “
It's been a losing week for our man but he has no regrets. Read his final thoughts on the week here...
Thomas Aiken shot a superb five under-par 65 to comfortably convert his third round three-shot lead into a three-shot margin victory at the Avantha Masters and longstanding PGA Tour maiden, Kevin Streelman, showed considerable resolve to win the Tampa Bay Championship. Americans have now won all 12 PGA Tour events in 2013.
My Bets
At no stage did I ever look like winning at the Avantha Masters and I eventually lost a few pounds at the eventful Tampa Bay Championship - but only because I was far too dismissive of Streelman.
I'd written in the In-Play Blog how hard it was to hold-on to a lead at Copperhead and given 34 year-old Streelman, who'd started round four in a tie at the top, had never won in getting on for nearly 200 PGA Tour events, his victory caught me out a bit and I failed to profit from a good position.
I got onboard runner-up Boo Weekley in-running at an average of 11.010/1, having first backed him at 18.5n/a after his superb tee-shot on the par 3 15th and having topped-up at 8.07/1 as he played the 18th.
I also backed Justin Leonard @ 9.08/1 and I eventually backed Streelman at 2.1011/10, but all that did was reduce my losses.
Had Streelman failed to pass Boo, who was matched at just a shade over 2.01/1, I'd had a very good week and with hindsight, I obviously should have covered Streelman and/or layed Boo back but I've no regrets at all.
As discussed below, Weekley was very much a value play and I went for it. And I effectively took-on Streelman. It didn't pay-off this time but in the long-run, taking on players looking for their first wins after umpteen starts, usually pays off.
There's often value in the clubhouse
I've written about this before but after yesterday's events in Florida, it's well worth revisiting.
I can't praise Streelman's performance highly enough. Considering some pretty poor past efforts in-contention and bearing in mind that a target had been set by Boo, his two under-par back-nine was a magnificent knock and he deserves every credit, but it scuppered a rare and golden opportunity.
Punters are always over-optimistic about players still out on the course, expecting birdies when in reality, pars are good. The finish to the Copperhead Course is tough and the last three holes, known as the Snake-Pit, always average over-par, so finishing with a flourish and catching someone safely in the clubhouse is very tough.
After he'd posted his -8 score, Weekley's price slowly moved downwards as the realisation of the task set slowly materialised. I took a chance topping-up at 8.07/1 after he'd teed-off on the tough 18th and it nearly backfired when he left himself getting on for six feet for par but once he'd made that putt, for a very long time, his price did nothing but drop - eventually bottoming out at just over 2.01/1.
On tough tracks, those that come from off the pace and post a target are nearly always too big and Boo most certainly was last night.
What have we leant for next year?
At the Avantha Masters, the suspicion before the off was that length off the tee would prove advantageous at Jaypee Greens and so if proved. Aiken ranked 11th for Driving Distance, with runner-up Gaganjeet Bhullar and third-placed Wen-Chong Liang ranking 9th and 4th respectfully. If we return to the venue next year, look again at those that hit it miles off the tee.
There was plenty of money for a few Indians before the off but I fancy they were too short. Bhullar, Jaypee Greens' touring pro representative, finished second but only one other, Himmat Rai, finished inside the top-22.
After a run of South African events, where the locals dominate, it's easy to think that the Indians will follow suit but in reality, they don't have anywhere near the strength in depth or the history of top-class performers as the South Africans do and as a simple rule of thumb, dismissing them in future will probably prove the best way to go.
Aiken was the second South African in-a-row to win the Avantha Masters and it all makes sense. They're used to the grainy greens and they're used to being at the top of their game at this time of the year.
Jesper Parnevik tweeted on Friday that, "Innisbrook is one of the best courses we play all year!! Drives you insane but very fair!!!"
The course is fair but it is tough, really tough, and holding on to a lead is very difficult. If ever there were a week to switch from backing to laying then this is it. The leaderboard changed dramatically from one day to the next and simply laying the leaders between rounds would have put you nicely in-front.
We've a couple of nice events to look forward to this week. Luke Donald travels to Malaysia for the Maybank Malaysian Open and Tiger Woods will be attempting to win his eighth Arnold Palmer Invitational. I'll be back either tomorrow or early on Wednesday with previews of each event.
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