"It says plenty about leg three that Sleep In First, winner of a couple of pretty wretched races on his last two starts and now a stone higher in the weight than for the first of those successes, is only around the 1.75/7 mark."
There are tricky elements wherever we go for today's Placepot, but the small fields at Carlisle look the most easily managed.
14:20 - The opening novice chase can quickly be reduced to three, lack of ability essentially ruling out the bottom three on the racecard. Of those left, Dolatulo is clearly the best option, his chasing experience the most extensive in the field and his suitability for the trip assured. At a different course, we might have given more weight to Alta Rock's chasing experience, but the chances are that the much more able Drill Sergeant will cope with the demands of Carlisle's soft fences on his chasing debut and therefore he finds his way into the perm.
14:50 - The first of three legs which contain a bare seven runners, and although several are unexposed our choices in this race aren't too difficult to arrive at, with seemingly harshly-treated handicap debutants like Right To Rule and Somerset Island not really Placepot types. Although we're nominating Takaatuf first, he isn't necessarily our first choice, his inclusion based on the idea that this stiff 17 furlongs on better ground will bring out the best in him. A choice between Yorkist and Mojolika, second and first respectively over C&D last time, presents itself for our other spot, with the fact that Mojolika rather overcame the run of things that day, coupled with the idea that Takaatuf may not allow Yorkist his own way up front this time, leading us to land on Mojolika.
15:20 - It says plenty about leg three that Sleep In First, winner of a couple of pretty wretched races on his last two starts and now a stone higher in the weight than for the first of those successes, is only around the 1.75/7 mark. We could try and second-guess some of his rivals, but no clues are immediately forthcoming and it's much easier, and cheaper, just to bank on the in-form favourite.
15:50 - Despite a fairly big field, it looks as though there won't be much pace in this race (a view backed up by Timeform's In-Play Hints), something which could play into the hands of Nicene Creed, who was ridden prominently when landing a gamble last time. He's still very well handicapped on his best and has shown himself able to back up good runs in the past, so he's a sure thing for our perm. It's a case of hope rather than projection that Polarbrook will be ridden with sufficient enterprise, but the impression left last time (on his first start for Donald McCain, having left Kim Bailey) was so strong that we can overlook the vastly different trip unknown in terms of tactics.
16:25 - The final seven-runner affair in the 'Pot' (assuming we have no non-runners in the last between the time of writing and 16:55), but more significant here is that five of the seven have either a squiggle or an 'x' attached to their master rating. Super Ally is one of the exceptions, and although his jumping isn't exactly the most assured he's generally consistent and put in one of his better rounds over Carlisle's fences back in November, so he's worthy of a place. We could include both Lord Villez and Etxalar to pretty much guarantee passage to the last leg, but that might get expensive so we'll turf out Etxalar, who is shorter in the betting despite looking a bit vulnerable raised 11 lb for his C&D win last time.
16:55 - William Money is another case of a horse that is ordinary value in the win market, but is so because he's been solid of late and therefore he's worthy of inclusion in our perm irrespective of the fact he'll carry more of the pool than he'll deserve to. Second selection, Foot The Bill, has been placed on three of his four starts this season; he looked to be outpaced over something similar to this trip on his reappearance, though that was at Market Rasen and this stiffer track should be more suitable.
Selections:
14:20 - 2, 3
14:50 - 4, 6
15:20 - 4
15:50 - 1, 10
16:25 - 1, 4
16:55 - 3, 7
= 32 lines
There are no comments on this article.
No comments:
Post a Comment