“G-Mac’s wife, Kristen, is booked in to deliver their first child, a daughter, on Monday so he’s got plenty to think about besides hitting a small white ball with a stick and such a diversion can sometimes lead to success.”
Steve evaluates the latest leaderboard in New Jersey where we look set for a cracking finish to The Barclays...
10.25 - August 23, 2014
We've reached the halfway stage of the first FedEx Cup Playoff event, The Barclays, and we're faced with an intriguing puzzle to ponder. Here's the latest leaderboard with prices to back as at 10:00 UK and Ireland time.
Adam Scott -8 3.953/1
Cameron Tringale -8 23.022/1
Jim Furyk -7 10.5n/a
Brendon Todd -7 24.023/1
Kevin Chappell -7 27.026/1
Henrik Stenson -6 10.09/1
Jason Day -6 16.5n/a
Kevin Na -6 38.037/1
Ernie Els -6 50.049/1
Bo Van Pelt -6 55.054/1
Russell Knox -6 70.069/1
Hunter Mahan -5 38.037/1
Paul Casey -5 65.064/1
Patrick Reed -5 70.069/1
Erik Compton -5 190.0189/1
Justin Rose -4 32.031/1
Matt Kuchar -4 50.049/1
Bubba Watson -4 65.064/1
Graeme McDowell -4 70.069/1
Zach Johnson -4 85.084/1
Hideki Matsuyama -4 100.099/1
Brendon de Jonge -4 250.0249/1
Scott Langley -4 310.0309/1
Retief Goosen -4 310.0309/1
John Huh -4 400.0399/1
Danny Lee -4 620.0619/1
Rory McIlroy -3 12.011/1
-3 and 150.0149/1 Bar
Some of the golf Adam Scott played on approach last night was simply sensational but his putting left a lot to be desired and with 26 players within four strokes at the top of the leaderboard he's no value at less than 4.03/1. The Aussie ranks third for greens hit but right down at 64th for strokes gained putting and the frustration of repeatedly missing from short range could easily take its toll. And as I've written on numerous occasions, he's not the greatest of frontrunners.
We didn't get to see second favourite, Henrik Stenson's, second round yesterday as it was all done and dusted by the time the live coverage started but the stats suggest he's playing at least as well as Scott, if not better. The Swede ranks first for driving accuracy and greens in regulation and a much higher 37th for strokes gained putting but in such an open heat, I'm not prepared to back him either.
It's never easy to back up a low round and his seven-under-par 64 yesterday, matched by Jason Day, was the lowest of the week so far. He's clearly back to somewhere like his best but on such a crowded leaderboard he's going to have to pick up from where he left off and that's no guarantee.
Jim Furyk looks certain to hang around all weekend but he hasn't won for four years now and that's a huge negative. He never appears to capitulate in-the-mix but he has a very nasty habit of finding one to good on a Sunday.
After a rusty, ugly performance on Thursday, Rory McIlroy found his groove again yesterday, shooting a six-under par 65, despite playing with the ever-irritating Bubba Watson, who looks like he needs to address his increasingly irritable demeanour on the course. I'm not sure anyone can perform at their best whilst being that grumpy!
Rory is capable of all sorts of brilliance but this is a tough track with demanding rough and he'll need to repeat yesterday's 65 at least to give himself a realistic chance of winning. He's got an awful lot of traffic to pass and he's only got to have one or two bad holes to put himself in an almost impossible position. He makes no appeal at all at just 12.011/1.
In a wide open heat with so many in with a chance, including a couple of Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me a 100 Winner picks, I could very easily just leave the event alone for now and wait and see what today brings but at big prices, I've added two players that are fairly prolific.
I wanted to get Zach Johnson onside yesterday but missed the price so I'm happy to add him at bigger today. He's finding fairways and greens with ease so if he can just get a few more putts to drop he could easily climb the leaderboard nicely today and I've also backed Paul's each-way fancy, soon to be dad- Graeme McDowell...
G-Mac spoke positively about the venue but wasn't entirely happy with his game after round two. He will need to find a few more fairways and greens than he's done over the first two days so he's a speculative pick to say the least but he's putting really well and the distraction of becoming a father on Monday morning might be a plus. His wife, Kristen, is booked in to deliver their first child, a daughter, on Monday so he's got plenty to think about besides hitting a small white ball with a stick and such a diversion can sometimes lead to success.
21.30 - August 22, 2014
We've reached the halfway stage of the inaugural Czech Masters and pre-event favourite, Jamie Donaldson, leads by a stroke over France's Gregory Bourdy and by two over a group of five players that includes the Welshman's potential rival for a Ryder Cup place, Stephen Gallacher, and the man that won at the Ryder Cup venue, Gleneagles, at last year's Johnnie Walker Championship, Tommy Fleetwood.
Unsurprisingly, those men completely dominate the market. Here are their odds to back as at 21:25 UK and Ireland time.
Jamie Donaldson -9 3.052/1
Gregory Bourdy -8 8.27/1
Stephen Gallacher -7 6.411/2
Tommy Fleetwood -7 15.014/1
-7 and 34.033/1 Bar
There's no doubting Donaldson's talent but I'm more than happy to take him on here. He went odds-on this morning when he went four clear but instead of putting even more heat on the field he finished poorly, bogeying two of his last three holes, and having watched him in-contention for years, it wasn't a finish that caught me by surprise.
Donaldson's 38 years old but he's won just two European Tour titles and Gallacher is a year older, with just one more title than the Welshman. Neither can be described as prolific and with the added pressure of trying to secure their places on the Ryder Cup side, both are opposable.
In contrast to the market leaders, Bourdy is just 32 and has won four ET titles and although I realise I'm simplifying things greatly, he looks the value play at halfway. He won in Wales this time last year and looked to be in fine form this morning.
I'll take a detailed look at The Barclays tomorrow but if you missed it earlier, there's little doubt about the highlight of round two so far - Phil Mickelson playing his second shot from the hospitality suite!
Adam Scott is playing some sensational golf and looks the man to beat but he is missing a few putts and at the time of writing, he's one of four players tied for second behind Cameron Tringale.
12:20 - August 22, 2014
Hopes weren't very high after day one of the Czech Masters but they were at least off the ground. They're now dead and buried. My leftfield Danish inspiration theory didn't really materialise, although Lasse Jensen does lead on the Challenge Tour, but one of my three picks, Mikael Lundberg, shot an impressive five-under-par 67 to trail first round leader and pre-event favourite, Jamie Donaldson, by just a stroke but he's crashed quite spectacularly this morning and is now miles behind.
Donaldson, who wasn't feeling well yesterday, picked up from where he left off and was at one point odds-on and four clear this morning but a couple of bogeys at holes 7 and 8 have closed the event right up. I'll take a more detailed look at the event at the close of play but for now I'm turning my attention to The Barclays where there looks to be plenty of value on offer.
All three of my pre-event picks were as disappointing as pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy, who shot a surprisingly poor 74 and Bo Van Pelt ended the day in front, after shooting a six-under par 65 but with eight players tied for second on -5, three on -4 and fully 19 men tied for 13th on -3, it's absolutely wide open.
As detailed in the preview, a slow start at Ridgewood hasn't been disastrous at the last three events here and I've taken a chance on four players sitting on -3 at big prices. I really wanted to back Zach Johnson as well but was a bit too greedy last night - asking for 70.069/1 when I could have easily taken 65.064/1. Unfortunately, the layer realised he was offering too big and took it down.
Jim Furyk, one of those tied for second, is the current favourite but on such a congested leaderboard he looks plenty short enough, although the course looks ideal for his arrow-straight game.
Czech Masters Pre-Event Selections:
Mikael Lundberg @ 100.099/1
Lucas Bjerregaard @ 120.0119/1
Andreas Harto @ 230.0229/1
In-Play Bet
Gregory Bourdy @ 8.615/2
The Barclays Pre-Event Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ 28.027/1
Kevin Streelman @ 100/1 (Sportsbook)
Geoff Ogilvy @ 400.0399/1
Justin Leonard @ 810.0809/1
In-Play Bets
Bubba Watson @ 36.035/1
Ernie Els @ 160.0159/1
Justin Hicks @ 240.0239/1
Jason Bohn @ 560.0559/1
Graeme McDowell @ 75.074/1
Zach Johnson @ 85.084/1
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter
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