Michael Vaughan: Spin, Swann, Bell to toll for South Africa

"But it’s England who are the pre-match bet because of the run they’re in and because they’re at home; at 2.71/1 they offer the potential as a back-to-lay at worst."

The wicket at the Oval is likely to be a dry one so winning the toss and batting first will be the natural gameplan for both captains. But as a pre-toss selection it's England who hold most of the trump cards and should be backed, says Michael Vaughan.

First and foremost let's hope that this Series isn't spoilt by the weather. These are two really good teams up against each other and it would be a massive disappointment if we don't have enough play to establish who is the better of the two right now. Light showers are expected on Thursday and Friday but it's meant to be a lot better over the weekend.

The pitch at the Oval is normally a good one and the news is that it will be a dry track that will offer plenty for the spinners late on in the match. That means that whereas it would normally be an idea to bowl first if you win the toss, both captains will be thinking that chasing any sort of score to win the game will be hard work. So win the toss and bat is probably the wise choice. Graeme Swann and Imran Tahir will be major players in this contest but of the two it's Swann who is the more likely match-winner. Firstly because these are conditions that he knows better (even though Tahir has played plenty of county cricket) and secondly because he has bundles more experience of playing Test cricket. Other reasons why England may have the edge in this match are that South Africa are missing Mark Boucher and that they haven't had much of a chance to get much match practice because of the poor weather.

Either way, this will be far from straightforward for England. If it does something early on and SA are bowling then Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel and Vernon Philander can cause havoc. If they dismiss England's two left-handed openers early then Steyn can have a go at the right-handers who bat between positions three and eight inclusive. We've seen him rip through the best batting line-ups in the world over the years and he won't be feeling nervous about the challenge ahead. If the visitors bat and can make a good start, negating the new-ball threat of James Anderson and Stuart Broad, they can post a big total because theirs is a formidable line-up. You know who they are and the fact that JP Duminy will be coming in at seven is proof that they bat deep; even Philander at eight has first-class hundreds to his name.

As ever in a Test match the start will be crucial because it sets the tempo for the rest of the game and the first hour will give us a big clue as to who will be in the driving seat at the end of day one. The best sides in the world make the most of gaining the initiative and the way England and South Africa play the game, if you lose a session badly, you're half way there to losing the match.

But it's England who are the pre-match bet because of the run they're in and because they're at home; at 2.71/1 they offer the potential as a back-to-lay at worst.

Ravi Bopara will be recalled and bat at number six after Jonny Bairstow never really got going against the West Indies. Ravi will be nervous because he knows he has to perform in this Series but he comes into this game in good form after impressing in the ODI series against the Windies where he looked confident and composed. But the man to side with in terms of getting a score is Ian Bell. He'll be batting down at five after opening in the 50-over matches but that shouldn't bother him and he'll enjoy facing Tahir given that he's such a good player of spin. He's 2.61/1 to score fifty or more and that looks a bet.

For South Africa I like Jacques Kallis for top first innings batsman honours. A lot has been made of his indifferent record over in England but that's even more reason why he'll want to improve upon it on what is surely his last Tour over here. Write this man off at your peril but I certainly won't and he's my choice at 5.54/1.

Back England at 2.71/1
Back Ian Bell to score 50 or more @ 2.61/1
Back Jacques Kallis to be South Africa first innings top batsman @ 5.54/1

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Michael Vaughan: Swann needs to take early wickets on day three

Test previews / Michael Vaughan / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Chin up. Graeme Swann has a smile after a good individual performance but there's plenty of work still to do.

"It may just be worth taking a chance on England at [3.7] with a view to laying off at [3.0]. This isn’t a pitch that’s easy to get used to and the two men currently at the crease –Dinesh Chandimal and Suraj Randiv - will have to start all over again. So a couple of early wickets could well be on the cards."

Michael Vaughan tells us just why England find themselves in such a precarious situation at the moment and how Graeme Swann needs to strike early when Sri Lanka resume their innings on the morning of day three.

First things first. I've got no problem with the way England went about picking their XI. They chose the side that they thought gave them the best chance of winning the match and Samit Patel bowled well, taking two wickets on Test debut, which is a decent return. He misjudged the flight of a good delivery when he was batting but didn't look out of his depth at any stage. He didn't fare any worse than most of the England's batting order.

England's problems lay elsewhere. Firstly they let Sri Lanka off the hook last night - Monty Panesar twice dropping Mahela Jayawardene, who cashed in after being given two lifelines. You wouldn't expect any less from a player of his calibre. We'll have to wait and see just how important those extra runs he scored will be but they could end up making all the difference.

Secondly, England made a right hash of batting on what looks a pretty decent wicket. The England of a year ago would have posted 350 and put pressure on Sri Lanka, who would then be playing catch-up. To not match Sri Lanka's total on a decent wicket against a bowling line-up that is conventional and solid but lacks any true world-class performers was nothing short of criminal. Rangana Herath is a good spinner who doesn't bowl too many bad deliveries but England have made him look like Muttiah Muralitharan if his figures of 6/74 are anything to go by.

Andrew Strauss' side looks mentally scarred from that series against Pakistan. And if they were guilty of being too defensive and focusing too much on just on not getting out in the UAE, this time they've gone the other way and batted too aggressively. Erratically at times. There's been something of a mental failure, no doubt about that.

The only positives to come out of today's proceedings as far as England are concerned were that Ian Bell looks in good touch and that Graeme Swann bowled beautifully. The only reason they're still in with a chance of winning this match at all is because the Notts spinner took the prize scalp of Mahela Jayawardene, as well as the wickets of Kumar Sangakarra, Lahiru Thrimanne and Thilan Samawareera. He'll need to take quite a few more and do so pretty early on in the proceedings if England are to limit the hosts to anything that they could realistically chase.

It may just be worth taking a chance on England at [3.7] with a view to laying off at [3.0]. This isn't a pitch that's easy to get used to and the two men currently at the crease -Dinesh Chandimal and Suraj Randiv - will have to start all over again. So a couple of early wickets could well be on the cards.

I see that a finish on day three is currently trading at odds-on and that may be worth laying. Sri Lanka may yet bat for another session and if someone like Alastair Cook or Jonathan Trott gets in they could hang around and just bat time, knowing that the longer they stay at the crease the more of a chance they have of chasing a total. Nothing silly, the runs will come naturally. We've seen those two play like that before and if they build a couple of good partnerships that may well be enough to take the game into day four.

Given the way the England top order (Bell excluded) managed to find ways to get out, I'm not sure any of them deserve my money behind them for second innings top bat honours! But Jonathan Trott rarely fails twice in the same match and if it's patience that is required to play a big innings here, then he's the man to side with.

1pt Back England at [3.7], lay off if they trade below [3.0]
1pt Lay Test Match end Days One, Two and Three @ [1.98]
1pt Back Jonathan Trott to be England second innings top batsman @ [5.0]

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