Home and Away: Back Inverness to Butcher opponents

Bet 1: Xanthi (HOME) @ 1.77
Bet 2: Inverness CT (AWAY) @ 2.52

Jonno Turner switches his attentions to Greece and Scotland for two more picks to make up his Home and Away column.

We're off to Greece for our first pick of today, and Xanthi host struggling Veria in the cup, with the home side looking to secure their ninth game unbeaten at the Skoda Xanthi Arena.

Marinos Ouzounidis' side have looked formidable on their own patch in recent weeks, and three clean sheets from their last four indicates that the AOXARA rearguard is more than capable of holding out the Veria threat.

A penalties win against Ethnikos Gazoros in the last round of this competition will not have pleased Ouzounidis, and he will be looking for the hosts to make their mark on this encounter from the off.

Nine goals scored in their last five at home shows that the hosts do possess the quality in the final third to punish their opponents, and the likes of Benjamin Onwuachi and his six goals have fired the home side into 10th place in the Super League.

Visitors Veria are on a miserable run going into this clash, and sit in the relegation zone having secured just 16 points from 19 games.

And just one win from their last nine away from home indicates that Dimitrios Kalaitzidis' side may struggle in this one, and half a dozen goals shipped in their last three points to weaknesses in the Vasilissa tou Vorra defence.

Xanthi have lost just two of their last eight meetings with their guests this evening, and I think that they will continue that positive form here.

Bet 1: Xanthi (HOME) @ 1.77

Over to Scotland now, as second placed Inverness Caledonian Thistle look to cement their top two position with another win - at St Mirren.

Terry Butcher's Cally side have taken advantage of Rangers plight, and look set to secure their highest ever finish in the top tier, if they can extend the momentum they've shown in recent weeks.

Just two losses from 22 outings will have the visitors full of confidence ahead of this one, and 13 goals notched in their last half a dozen clashes shows that they will punish leaky defences.

But it is their form away from the Caledonian Stadium which has really caught the eye - and 10 games unbeaten on the road is exactly the kind of consistency that Butcher will want his side to maintain.

St Mirren go into this one sitting in 11th place in the SPL, and have won just one of their last four on their own patch.

Boss Danny Lennon will be desperate for his side to improve and match their eighth placed finish of last campaign, but they will need to improve their form in front of their own fans if they are to engineer a turnaround in league position.

Just one clean sheet in 13 outings on their own patch is one of the reasons that the Buddies find themselves at the wrong end of the table, and those defensive weaknesses are something that their visitors will be looking to take advantage of here.

Inverness are unbeaten in eight against the Paisley side, and with the momentum and vigour they have shown of late, I fancy them this evening.

Bet 2: Inverness CT (AWAY) @ 2.52

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Exploiting weak opponents

No Limit Holdem / Marcus Bateman / 13 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Most great skill games have areas that are extremely counter intuitive. Put another way, they have nuances where the correct play seems to defy common sense in many ways, and goes right against the grain of how our normal brain works. One of the best examples of this in poker is in making plays that seem very bold and risky to exploit weak opponents, and if they work, doing them all over again straight away.

In most walks of life, if we do something risky and bold, we expect our opponent(s) to counter very quickly, and not take such a move seriously the next time. If we make a sneaky attack on enemy lines from the flank, we expect this areas to be better protected next time. However, in poker this is frequently not the case, and particularly against weak players, when you make these types of plays and they work, your first priority is not to back down and try to use them occasionally, but to start making them constantly.

Most weak poker players have very set ideas about the game. If you make a play that to you seems a little out there but it gets a quick and easy result, you have probably found a move that they have very set ideas on, and as a result of this static state of mind, they will take huge prompting to change their mind and behaviour.

Say you check raise the turn against a weak player who seems overly cautious and get a pretty much instant fold. Many poker players reason along the lines of: 'Oh well I have done that once he is probably sceptical now so I shouldn't bluff check raise the turn again'. This is nearly always wrong. If you find a chink in someone's armour, exploit it. Keep attacking it until they close it or go broke.

Most of poker goes on under the surface, and as such, things which you consider very simple and obvious are often things opponents may literally have no idea about. Concerns to you about not being exploitable or staying balanced frequently have pretty much zero place in another player's thinking.

When you are up against these types of opponents, you might as well just keep firing away until they defend adequately - no matter how much your common sense wants you to back down. Bad players can't defend against what they don't see, and all the best exploitative players not only know this, but attack these blind spots with a ruthless zeal when they identify one.

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