Mali v Guinea: Underdogs set to spring a surprise

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mali's Seydou Keita is one of the tournament's biggest names

"The member of Guinea's younger generation that immediately leaps out is Sadio Diallo: this tall, graceful attacker has been excellent at Bastia in France’s second division this season and appears on the point of a €4m move to Ligue 1 Rennes."

James Eastham expects "The National Elephants" to defy the odds by seeing off Mali in Group D.

Mali v Guinea, Tuesday January 24, KO 19:00 GMT, British Eurosport, Match Odds: Mali [2.62], Guinea [3.0], The Draw [3.2].

This is an intriguing match-up between the two sides expected to contest second place in the group behind Ghana. Mali are [4.2] to win Group D, Guinea [7.0].

My feeling is the gap between the two sides isn't as big as those odds suggest. Mali have qualified for three of the last four finals, reaching the semi-finals in 2002 and 2004, but disappointed in Angola two years ago, going out against all odds in the first round, and have rebuilt since then. Barcelona's Seydou Keita is still there, but behind him there's an obvious lack of experience: 17 of Alain Giresse's squad are 25 or under.

There's a better mix in the Guinea ranks, with the likes of goalkeeper Naby Yattara and Ismael Bangoura providing a useful bridge between the squad's elder statesmen, such as seemingly ageless centre-half Bobo Balde and frustrating but occasionally brilliant playmaker-cum-goalscorer Pascal Feindouno, and the younger generation. The member of that younger generation that immediately leaps out is Sadio Diallo: this tall, graceful attacker has been excellent at Bastia in France's second division this season and appears on the point of a €4m move to Ligue 1 Rennes.

Looking at the prices, I'd rather take Guinea at [3.0] or The Draw at [3.2] than Mali at [2.6]. In order to avoid backing the wrong one of those two suggestions, an alternative would be to back Guinea -0 Asian handicap at [2.05]. That way, you'll make money if Guinea win, and get your stakes back if the game finishes all-square.

Over 2.5 goals is my other selection. This bet came off for us when Burkina Faso played Angola on Sunday. I'm selecting it again for the same reasons: 16 of 31 opening-round fixtures have featured three goals or more at the last four tournaments.

Best Bet: Guinea -0 Asian handicap @ [2.05]
Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.34]

* James Eastham's tips for betting.betfair.com made a profit at both the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America

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5 FA Cup underdogs who've shocked Manchester United

/ Dan Fitch / 18 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Dan Fitch looks at the unfancied teams who have bloodied the nose of Manchester United in the FA Cup.

Non-league Crawley Town travel to Old Trafford to face Manchester United on Saturday, in the Fifth Round of the FA Cup.

Crawley are available at a massive [36.0] to win the game and pull off the biggest upsets in FA Cup history. If they need some inspiration, here are five FA Cup underdogs who've shocked Manchester United.

Burton didn't beat Manchester United, but by grinding out a 0-0 draw, the then non-league outfit still pulled off a massive shock.

United had fielded a young side, including the likes of Gerard Pique and Giuseppe Rossi, and brought on Wayne Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo in an effort to win the game. Nigel Clough's team held out for a draw and a lucrative return match at Old Trafford, where a record amount of away fans (11,000) saw Burton lose the replay 5-0.

In 1959, Third Division South outfit Norwich City went on an FA Cup run that saw them reach the semi-final of the competition. In the Third Round they defeated Matt Busby's Manchester United, despite the presence of Bobby Charlton.

Norwich romped to a 3-0 win on a snowbound Carrow Road surface. They would also knock Tottenham Hotspur out of the cup, before eventually succumbing int the semi-final to Luton Town.

Manchester United were the strong favourites to win the 1976 FA Cup Final against second division Southampton, but in a major shock the Hampshire club won 1-0, thanks to a late goal from Bobby Stokes.

The Saints had just finished sixth in Division Two, though Lawrie McMenemy's team was deceptively strong and included England internationals such as Mick Channon and Peter Osgood

Manchester United were the FA Cup holders, having won the trophy against Brighton in 1983. Ron Atkinson's team had already been knocked out of the League Cup by third division Oxford and they completed an unwanted double, when they lost 2-0 to Harry Redknapp's Bournemouth - also of Division Three.

Frank Stapleton, Bryan Robson, Arnold Muhren and Norman Whiteside were in a United team that went 1-0 down to a Milton Graham goal, after a blunder by goalkeeper Gary Bailey. Four minutes later, Ian Thompson scored the second, decisive goal. Bournemouth's goalkeeper Ian Leigh won a lifetime supply of pizzas from a local Italian restaurant for keeping a clean sheet.

There would have been nothing particularly remarkable about this result, had it occurred in the early seventies. The fact that it happened in 2010 though, when Manchester United were the reigning Premier League champions and Leeds were mired in the third tier of English football, caused a massive shock.

Jermaine Beckford gave Leeds the advantage with a well-taken goal. Leeds then worked their socks off to keep Manchester United at bay. It was the first time during Sir Alex Ferguson's reign as manager, that his team had been knocked out at the third round stage.

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