Michael Vaughan: Pakistan to carry on where they left off

Pakistan v England / Michael Vaughan / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Big guns. Younis Khan, Umar Gul and Shahid Afridi share a joke with coach Mohsin Khan (second from left).

"We have seen Pakistan struggle to chase good scores plenty of times in the past so the toss may end up being really important. Still, we have to side with Pakistan because of the momentum they bring into the one-dayers and their better knowledge of the conditions."

The momentum Pakistan are carrying from the Test series and better knowledge of the conditions should help them win the ODI series. Michael Vaughan discusses England's strongest team and the best bets.

The Test series was a rude awakening for England but they get a chance to try and redeem themselves with this four-match ODI series. If we're looking for positives then we can say that some of the England batsmen who now take to the limited-overs format should know how to play the likes of Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman by now. One of the guys who really struggled against them, Ian Bell, has been dropped and there are some new guys like Jos Butler, Steven Davies and Ravi Bopara coming in who may not have played against those guys before but then again, won't have nightmares about what happened in the Test matches to haunt them.

Kevin Pietersen is opening the batting just like he did at the World Cup and that's a good move. Firstly because he's probably still England's most dangerous player in this format and will enjoy batting when the ball (or balls as it now given that two are used throughout the match) is hard. And secondly because I think it's time to abandon the experiment of opening with Craig Kieswetter, who will drop down the order.

Jonathan Trott may contribute in terms of weight of runs but I simply can't have him and Alastair Cook batting together in the top three. You can't axe the skipper so if I was me, I'd be tempted to leave Trott out and play Samit Patel at three. The Notts all-rounder also likes to bat when the ball is hard and something England need to start doing is playing the batsmen in the positions they bat for when playing for their counties. Patel bats at three for his county so he should bat there for England as well.

If Jos Butler is going to get a game he should bat at four, which is where he comes in for Somerset. But I'd actually be tempted to play Bopara and find out for once and for all if he can cut it at this level. He'd also provide another useful option as a fourth seamer. Then it would be Eoin Morgan at five, Jonny Bairstow at six and the aforementioned Kieswetter in the traditional keeper's position of seven.

Of these Morgan would be my selection to end the series as top-runscorer. I know he only comes in at five but we saw in the Test series how one wickets leads to another and he may well be at the crease a lot earlier than England would have liked! He's available at [6.0].

The rest pretty much pick themselves with Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann, James Anderson and one of Tim Bresnan or Steve Finn.

Pakistan are arguably a better Test side at the moment than they are ODI team but this will be far from easy for England. Shahid Afridi is and always has been a match-winner and Umar Akmal has been accused of being a little reckless at times but he's another who can turn a game very quickly. They will both come into the side and could be big players for Pakistan in this series.

The big problem England have is that I wouldn't fancy them to chase anything above 250 and that's likely to be on the cards if Pakistan bat first. We saw in the Test series that England's batters couldn't keep their wickets intact against the spinners, let alone score off them so I can't see how that's going to change now, especially with the pressure of a tricky run-chase on. I can picture a scenario where England are chasing 230-250 and fall well short just like they did in the Tests.

England's best bet is to bat first if they win the toss, be aggressive against the spinners and try to set a decent total. We have seen Pakistan struggle to chase good scores plenty of times in the past so the toss may end up being really important. Still, we have to side with Pakistan because of the momentum they bring into the one-dayers and their better knowledge of the conditions. If England don't win one of the first two matches it could easily end up being another whitewash, just as it was in India before Christmas but I think they will, so 3-1 would be my idea of the series score.

1pt Back Eoin Morgan to be England top series runscorer @ [6.0]
3 pts Back Pakistan to win the series @ [2.22]
Back Pakistan to win the series 3-1 @ [3.4]

Kevin Pietersen has his own nemesis, and everyone knows it's left-arm spin. Except KP himself refuses to admit it publicly says Frank Gregan. And that could be England's downfall ahead of the ODI series against Pakistan....

Ed Hawkins crunches the numbers to answer the question: how has technology changed Test cricket?...

Ed Hawkins eats a bit of humble pie over the scoring ability of Azhar Ali and pours cold water on any faint England hopes of an unlikely victory......

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Move up where they respect your raises!

Pud's Poker Progress / Matthew Pitt / 04 February 2011 / Leave a comment

As a reader of many poker forum posts each week I frequently see new members posting their hand histories from micro-stakes games asking how is it possible to beat the fish who will call you with raggedy hands regardless of the action before them. The most common tongue-in-cheek response is to move up in stakes where the players respect your raises. Although this is completely wrong as if you cannot defeat the fish you are not going to be able to beat the better players found in higher stakes games, it seems to have worked for me!

If you read my previous post you will have discovered that I have been playing the dizzy heights of NL50 after realising that playing for any lower was basically pointless and a waste of my time and effort. For as long as I can remember fellow blogger and poker player Amatay has been telling me to ditch the micro-stakes and play much higher but I have always held back for one reason or another but now I am glad I have grown a pair and tested the, apparently, shark infested waters.

At time of writing I have played 3,076 hands and I am in profit by €87.76 for a win rate of 5.72bb/100, more than adequate for anyone, especially a newcomer to this level. My profits should be much higher too, €192.28 to be exact, but we all know that I run like dog turn when I am all in with the best hand but what I am most impressed with has been my discipline and lack of tilt when matters have not been going the way I would have wanted them to. By hand 1,500 I was down more than €110 and the old Yorkshire Pudding would have completely given up, withdrawn his bankroll and moaned to all and sundry. However, this new me simply kept playing, albeit over no more than two tables simultaneously, as I know I am better than most of the players, if not all of them, that I have come up against so far.

Concentrating on just two tables has allowed me to actually play some poker and take so many pots without a showdown that it is almost criminal! I have actually managed to win €81 of the €86 without showing down my holecards, which goes to show how badly I am running when I do have to showdown cards. The standard of players is obviously better than those I have come across at NL10 but only because they are more aggressive but aggression does not always equal skill. In fact some of these players just love to go broke with top pair and some are so transparent in their betting that they are essentially giving away their money to anyone observant enough to spot their tells.

One of the aspects of poker I have always struggled with is the money side of things, which is a big hindrance as money is what we use to keep score in this crazy game. I'm not sure if it is because I have always worked for my money so know its value or what but I have always found it difficult to disassociate the monetary value of my chips and view them as simply that, chips. For some reason moving up seems to have helped me do this, strange I know, but I've not thought about the money side of things for at least the past 2,500 hands. The only time I had previously was when I went with my gut instinct and moved all in with pocket jacks over the top of a turn bet on a board reading Qc-3c-8d-Qc only to see I was completely wrong and the villain held 8c8h for a flopped set and turned boat. At this point I thought that the €54.29 could have been better used but then I realised that if I had have been correct and won the hand then I would not be moaning about it. I must admit though that the old heart gets pumping when I find myself all in or running a big bluff!

My confidence is sky high at the moment but I need to be careful not to get carried away as it is very early days at my new level. I'll leave you with the biggest pot I have won so far, not surprising that I held aces, and the biggest pot I have lost so far too against an aptly-named "fish cun-t".

Until next time, thanks for reading and the very best of luck at the tables!

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