Premier League 
/ Mike Norman / 27 February 2011 / Leave a Comment John Carew is fancied to give West Brom’s defence a difficult time on Monday night
"At [1.96] to back Stoke look worthy of a best bet selection given both club’s respective home/away form, their excellent record against Albion, and the fact that the Baggies are incapable of keeping a clean sheet."
Stoke host West Brom on Monday night knowing that a win will give them every chance to challenge for a top six finish. Mike Norman previews the game. Best Bet: Back Stoke at [1.96] to beat West Brom.
Venue: Britannia Stadium, Stoke
Kick-Off/TV: 20:00, live on Sky Sports 1
West Brom fell into the relegation zone for the first time this season thanks to Wolves' 4-0 victory over Blackpool on Saturday, but such is the tight nature of the Premier League table currently, a win for Roy Hodgson's men on Monday night will move the Baggies up three places and just two points behind 10th place Everton. A win for the home side will set Stoke up nicely for an end-of-season challenge to finish in the top six and a possible Europa League qualifying slot.
Unusually for this stage of the season both managers have virtually full strength squads to choose from. Tony Pulis' only major doubt is winger Matthew Etherington who is still struggling with a back problem, but Abdoulaye Faye could return after recovering from a hamstring injury.
Hodgson will be boosted by the news that Scott Carson and Jonas Olsson have recovered from illness, though whether he will be equally pleased when he learns about his new club's poor record against Stoke is unlikely. Albion have won just one of their last 28 meetings against the Potters, and in recent years, Stoke have won seven and drawn one of their last eight encounters, including a comprehensive 3-0 victory at The Hawthorns in November.
Match Odds: Stoke [1.96], West Brom [4.7], The Draw [3.5]
This will be Hodgson's second crack at beating Stoke at the Britannia Stadium this season but he won't have fond memories of his first attempt - a 2-0 loss during his brief spell as Liverpool boss. The side he has inherited have now gone a club record 25 Premier League games without recording a clean sheet, and that sequence is unlikely to be broken against a physically strong Stoke side who will put the ball into the box at every opportunity.
Stoke have won their last four games at the Britannia whereas West Brom have lost five successive away league games, the last four without scoring. At [1.96] to back Stoke look worthy of a best bet selection given both club's respective home/away form, their excellent record against Albion, and the fact that the Baggies are incapable of keeping a clean sheet - especially on the road (none in 13 league games so far this season).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Six of Stoke's last seven league games on home soil have gone the way of Under 2.5 Goals - available to back at [1.86] here - but eight of West Brom's last 11 away league games have ended with Over 2.5 Goals ([2.12]) being the outcome. It's a close one then, but given the better odds on Overs, and the fact that all league games involving Stoke this term have averaged 2.4 goals per game, and for Albion it's 3.22 goals per game, then Over 2.5 Goals has to be the selection.
Stoke are the only side in the Premier League this season not to score a goal in the first 15 minutes, so perhaps In-Play punters might want to wait until this point before backing Over 2.5 Goals. If the score is 0-0 at this point then the odds should drift to around [2.4], but in my opinion, the chances of this bet being successful will still be the same.
Half Time/Full Time
As alluded to above, Stoke don't score early goals; in fact, from the 31 league goals they've scored this term, just seven have been scored in the first half of their games. There's no reason to believe that trend will continue, but given that Hodgson is likely to set his stall out to defend - especially in the early stages - then backing Draw HT/Stoke FT at [5.2] could prove very profitable.
First Goalscorer
John Carew - who could have joined Albion in January - looks to be a shrewd signing by Pulis as it's his height and strength that fits perfectly into Stoke's style of play. It's Carew that I feel will give the away team most problems, so at around [6.8] to back in this market, he is another speculative wager worth having.
Best Bet: Back Stoke at [1.96] to beat West Brom
Back Draw/Stoke at [5.2] in Half Time/Full Time market
Back Over 2.5 Goals In-Play at around [2.4] if score is 0-0 after 15 minutes
*Mike's record on his Best Bets this season is 23 wins from 47 selections resulting in a profit of £68.40 (£10 stake/liability per selection)
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