The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Cheesehead Mark Wilson enjoys a great 24 hours
“Mark Wilson was winning the Phoenix Open 12 months too late! Amazingly, I ignored him this time around, having backed him before the off last year at a humongous [350.0], when he led at halfway before dropping tamely away.”
It's a frustrating week for the Punter, as a near miss in Qatar is followed by a winner in the States that's a year too late!
Thomas Bjorn held his nerve and putted superbly to hold off the field and take the Qatar Masters yesterday. Whilst in the States, Mark Wilson had what must go down as the best 24 hours of his life. His beloved Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl yesterday, before he returned to TPC Scottsdale today to clinch the WM Phoenix Open, beating Jason Duffner in a play-off.
My Bets
All my bets are detailed in this week's Live Golf Blog and it's not been a great week. The only thing that isn't listed there is my lay back of my bet on Phil Mickelson to win the Masters. He spooked me yesterday and I can see him drifting a bit if he doesn't get his act together next week, so I've dumped my bet back at the same price I took - [8.8].
Alvaro Quiros very nearly pulled off a decent gamble but stuttered at just the wrong time and Mark Wilson was winning the Phoenix Open 12 months too late! Amazingly, I ignored him this time around, having backed him before the off last year at a humongous [350.0], when he led at halfway before dropping tamely away- a painful pair of results.
All I can do is take a deep breath and move on....
Player to follow
Quiros was out of form last year but still finished 2nd, and playing in atrocious conditions this year, he was five over par through 15 holes on Thursday, and yet still managed 2nd again. He'll be a strong fancy again next year as I can't believe when his career is over and done he'll just have the 2009 Qatar Masters title to his name. Doha is so well suited to his game I can see him winning this title several times.
There will be plenty of punters that don't agree with my assessment after his finish yesterday. The missed par putt on 15 was terrible and his decision to take a wedge off the 17th tee mindboggling, but those sort of things are always possible with Quiros and as a backer you know it's factored into the price and you just have to accept it. Some would say he choked, and maybe they're right but for me he didn't. He'll still scoop up titles each year and often at a value price.
He also traded odds on last year in this week's event - the Dubai Desert Classic, and it may not be very long at all before he gains compensation for yesterday's near miss.
Players to swerve
There will be plenty of punters disappointed with Mickelson's pathetic effort this week as well and I can't pretend I wasn't one of them but like Quiros, it's all there before you and when you pay your money you take your chance. Lefty's been liable to go from brilliant to awful for years now and he's not going to change now. This game is all about price though and like Quiros, the negative aspect of Lefty's game often leads to him being over-priced. The same can't be said about short-priced American young guns Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler....
Johnson started very well in Phoenix, was matched at just [3.5] but then, yet again, went AWOL. It's a year to the day since I first started to wonder about Dustin's in-contention disposition when he gave up a great chance to win the Northern Trust Open. That dodgy effort was enough to put me off the following week when he scrambled home in most unconvincing fashion at the AT & T (which he defends again this week). He then went on to famously blow a considerable lead at the same venue at the US Open. He did manage another win last year, at the BMW Championship, but that was largely thanks to Paul Casey's choke and he appears to be getting worse in the mix.
As for Fowler, he was very in-and-out this week and that illusive first career win appears to be sliding further away. Both players are amongst the very, very best in the world and only a fool would say they weren't and that they won't win plenty of titles, but will they win as often as their prices suggest? I suspect not.
What have we learnt for next year?
Doha GC really is a course for a certain type of horse, as the saying sort of goes, and this year's leaderboard was again littered with the usual Qatar suspects. Recent past winners Robert Karlsson, Alvaro Quiros and Retief Goosen all contended, and even out of form past winners Paul Lawrie and Darren Fichardt showed up for a while. Thomas Bjorn didn't have sparkling form at Doha before this week, but he'd finished in the top-ten there a couple of times previously. In contrast, the likes of Martin Kaymer and Ian Poulter just can't seem to take to the place. Stick to the course form guys again next year.
With wind often an issue the draw is very important. Those with an afternoon start on day one this year were severely handicapped and I have to wonder how much worse Bjorn's first round score would have been (he shot a two over 74 with a morning start), had he played in the worsening afternoon winds.
I'll be back tomorrow or on Wednesday morning with a preview of this week's two events - The Dubai Desert Classic and the AT & T Pebble Beach.
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