World Match Play 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 27 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Luke Donald is arguably the best exponent of matchplay golf in the world
"Matchplay is different, however, especially over 18 holes. Some players clearly prefer this format, and Donald is the ultimate example. Luke has won his five matches this week by an incredible 22 hole aggregate margin, compared to 11 for Kaymer. He is the only player who hasn't at least endured a bad spell of holes, except perhaps when taking his foot off the gas against Manassero."
It's been a marathon week and the reduction of the final to just 18 holes has been welcomed by Paul Krishnamurty. But who will come out on top and seal the deal?
WGC organisers have made a smart move in shortening tonight's final to 18 holes. While we would all like to see as much golf as possible, the week is something of a marathon anyway and previous 36-hole finals have tended to drag on, especially when they've been one-sided. US TV coverage is bad enough without giving them an extra five minutes between shots to fill. And in all truth, it will be nice to put my feet up for a couple of hours with the Sunday paper this afternoon, after yesterday's gruelling schedule.
Martin Kaymer may well share that sentiment after last night's late finish, though if the German needs a lift, all he need do is look at the updated world rankings. Kaymer thoroughly deserves his new status as the world's leading player, especially as his predecessor at number one, Lee Westwood, has started the season slowly. What better way to celebrate than to win his first WGC title?
Nevertheless, punters should be extremely wary of assuming that Kaymer is anything like an odds-on 'good thing' tonight. Indeed a closer look at those rankings shows that if Luke Donald wins tonight, the Englishman will himself rise to number three. It is the perfect illustration of golf's new order, where rather than one man dominating, any one of 10, maybe 20 or even 30 players are separated by a wafer-thin margin.
This final also presents the ideal opportunity to revisit the never-ending punting debate about the relationship between strokeplay and matchplay form. Frankly, if this were a strokeplay event in the desert, I'd be recommending a large bet on Kaymer. Whatever their rankings, choosing between a man with nine titles over the last three years, and another with only one during the last five years plus a plethora of final day failures, is a no-brainer.
Matchplay is different, however, especially over 18 holes. Some players clearly prefer this format, and Donald is the ultimate example. Luke has won his five matches this week by an incredible 22 hole aggregate margin, compared to 11 for Kaymer. He is the only player who hasn't at least endured a bad spell of holes, except perhaps when taking his foot off the gas against Manassero. Factor in Donald's previous record in this event, the Ryder Cup and even the Walker Cup as an amateur, and the Englishman has a strong claim to being the world's finest match player.
When the gap between the top players is so small in the first place, any match like this is going to be basically a toss of a coin affair. For that and the above reasons, my recommendation is to back Donald, although this is not a match for big stakes. Given how closely they are matched, the best strategy might be to lay whoever goes in front first.
The third place consolation match is equally hard to call. Bubba Watson has definitely been superior to Matt Kuchar over the week, but I wonder whether this inspirational player will be able to get his competitive juices flowing again so quickly after yesterday's marathon effort. Kuchar is a completely contrasting type of character, recently taking over from Jim Furyk as the PGA Tour's 'Mr Consistency', and rates a tentative pick.
Recommended bets
2pts Luke Donald @ [2.1] (vs Kaymer)
2pts Matt Kuchar @ [1.9] (vs Watson)
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