English Football League 
/ Andrew Atherley / 11 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Daniel Ward of Huddersfield puts in a tackle against Brighton. The stats suggest Lee Clark's side are in a good position to tackle the Play-Offs
"But the fact that the highest-placed team doesn’t win all the time indicates other forces are at work. No doubt one of them is luck, but two more tangible factors are momentum and away form."
Punters will have different opinions as to how to approach betting ahead of the Play-Offs but use of long-term stats are a pretty good starting point and Andrew Atherley is as good as anyone when it comes to number-crunching.
The Football League playoffs are effectively a mini cup tournament and the best team doesn't always win, but several strong trends have emerged in the 21 years since the current format was settled upon.
The stats help firstly to dispel one of the chief myths surrounding the playoffs: the notion that the best-placed finisher in the league table (third in the Championship and League One and fourth in League Two) has a poisoned chalice.
In fact, a top seed from at least one of the three divisions has gone up in 19 of the past 21 years and top seeds account for 40% of playoff winners (from 25% representation). The other seedings have an overall success rate below 25%, so it is they who have under-performed.
But the fact that the highest-placed team doesn't win all the time indicates other forces are at work. No doubt one of them is luck, but two more tangible factors are momentum and away form.
Momentum - measured by points gained from the final eight games of the regular season - has been particularly important in the Championship, with 13 of the past 15 winners ranking in the top two (this year Cardiff rank first and Reading second).
Overall, at least one of the highest-ranked momentum teams from the three divisions has gone up in 15 of the past 21 years. Along with Cardiff, Huddersfield (League One) and Shrewsbury (League Two) are this year's momentum teams.
Away form is also important. Teams that rely on a strong home record to reach the playoffs are often caught out by having to play an away leg and the final (if they get that far) on a neutral ground.
At least one of the highest-ranked away teams from the three divisions has gone up in 11 of the past 13 seasons. Cardiff hold the best away record in the Championship this time, while in League One it is Huddersfield and in League Two it is Shrewsbury.
It is interesting that Cardiff, Huddersfield and Shrewsbury rank top on momentum and away form, and even more so that Huddersfield and Shrewsbury are the top seeds as well (Cardiff would have been too if they had won instead of drawn at Burnley on the final day of the regular season).
From the handful of teams that have ranked top in all three categories (seeding, momentum and away form) five out of 10 have been promoted. That indicates Huddersfield at [2.76] and Shrewsbury at [3.15] are solid favourites, while Cardiff are well worth considering at [3.95].
The three teams who are up against it on the stats are Nottingham Forest in the Championship, Bournemouth in League One and Stevenage in League Two. All three rank outside the top two in each category and teams with that sort of record have fared poorly - in League Two only two out of 21 have been promoted.
In terms of the first-leg results, the stat that really stands out is the high draw rate in League One (24 out of 42, or 57%). Not surprisingly, there is a strong trend towards under 2.5 goals in League One first legs (71%), as there is in League Two (69%).
The stats on the FA Cup final point to victory for Manchester City (in the Premier League era, the higher-placed team in the league structure has won 14 times out of 18) in 90 minutes (14 of the last 18 finals) and possibly to nil (12 of the 14 winners in 90 minutes have done it that way).
Under 2.5 goals is strongly indicated (13 of the last 18 have had unders).
Recommended bets
Huddersfield to be promoted from League One at [2.76]
Shrewsbury to be promoted from League Two at [3.15]
Draw in Bournemouth v Huddersfield at [3.45]
Draw in MK Dons v Peterborough at [3.45]
Manchester City to win FA Cup final in 90 minutes at [1.93]
Back Under 2.5 goals in FA Cup final at [1.76]
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