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/ Sean Calvert / 15 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Can Rafa avenge last week's final defeat?
"Djokovic will be exhausted now after a three-hour stint against Murray and what he doesn’t need the day after is a match with Rafa Nadal."
The two best players in the world meet today for their fourth final since March with the Spaniard favoured to end the Serbian's phenomenal run - but does Sean Calvert share that view?
I've said many times that you can never tell which Andy Murray is likely to turn up on a tennis court and never was that more clearly illustrated than at the Foro Italico on Saturday night.
The error ridden Scot was awful in the first set against Novak Djokovic before coming back to serve for the match and then faltering again to move up another notch on the list of 'Great British Losers'.
If Djokovic wasn't tired before the semi-final - and he was - he'll be exhausted now after a three-hour stint against Murray and what he doesn't need the day after is a match with Rafa Nadal.
That's exactly what he's got though and we have the final that I predicted in my tournament preview.
In that preview I advised backing Rafa and I won't be changing my mind today. He'll be the fresher, the fitter, and the more motivated tennis player after losing to Nole in Madrid last week.
The pair are meeting for the fourth time since March after finals at Indian Wells, Miami and the Spanish capital, with the Serb winning all three of course in his amazing unbeaten start to 2011.
The layers reckon that the world number one will end that run today though, as he's been put in at around [1.5] to claim his sixth Rome Masters title.
A key factor in today's clash will be the slower conditions that Rafa loves, which should mean that far less of Djokovic's cross court backhand winners to the Nadal forehand will get past the Rafa defences.
Another one is the lack of free points on serve for either player, meaning more punishing rallies. The last time these two met in the final in Rome in 2009 there were no aces in the match, so if Djokovic is going to win this it will cost him physically.
I hope this match won't be spoiled by fatigue, but there is a good chance that Rafa could finish this one early after a tight first set, so there may some play in backing Nadal with a deficit in the handicap market.
The Spaniard is around [2.28] to win this two sets to love, which is another likely outcome, but as Nole has forgotten how to lose this year, it could be a risky play.
For me, the safest wager in the Rome Masters final 2011 is a Nadal outright win at around [1.5].
Recommended Bet
Back Nadal at [1.5]
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