June 26, 2011

Timeform Daily: The Irish Derby, Sunday 15:50, the Curragh

Race of the Day RSS / Timeform / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Carlton House gain compensation for his Epsom defeat?

Can Carlton House gain compensation for his Epsom defeat?

"Carlton House may have finished behind Treasure Beach at Epsom but he was poorly placed in relation to that rival and is a confident selection to reverse those placings."

Epsom Derby second and third Treasure Beach and Carlton House are set to renew rivalry at the Curragh on Sunday, but who will come out on top?...

Carlton House is an exciting prospect who was too strong for Seville in the Dante before finishing third in Epsom Derby, showing potent turn of foot 3f out but unable to sustain that effort. Compensation awaits.

Dunboyne Express won twice at 2 yrs, including runaway victory in Group 3 here only try on ground softer than good. Overall level of form some way off required standard though, and this trip is an unknown.

Memphis Tennessee won AW maiden in 2010 and built on that good impression in no uncertain terms this year, fourth in Derby last time under well-judged ride. Hard to see him reversing placings with Carlton House.

Native Khan landed Craven Stakes before creditable efforts in 2000 Guineas (third to Frankel) and Derby (fifth to Pour Moi). Will probably continue to come up short at highest level but could get placed.

Notable Graduate landed odds in maiden at Tipperary and minor event at Gowran in April/May. Unsuited by test of speed when only second last time and could go well at a price. Attitude looks a major asset.

Roderic O'Connor usually goes from the front and bounced back to his 2-y-o form when winning the Irish 2000 Guineas under an astute ride, but didn't see out 10.5f in France last time and now races over even further.

Seville was fast-tracked to top table when runner-up in Racing Post Trophy last backend. Behind Carlton House in Dante and then ran no sort of race at Epsom, but could bounce back on more galloping track.

Treasure Beach took Chester Vase on return (beat Nathaniel) and then fared best of this field in the Epsom Derby, beaten only by a head. Enjoyed a tactical advantage over the third that day, however.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Carlton House
2. Seville
3. Notable Graduate

Timeform's View: Carlton House may have finished behind Treasure Beach at Epsom but he was poorly placed in relation to that rival and is a confident selection to reverse those placings. Aidan O'Brien's best chance could be Seville, who clearly wasn't himself at Epsom but chased home Carlton House earlier in the campaign, while at bigger odds Notable Graduate should give a good account if it becomes a slog.

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Betfair are offering you cashback if Carlton House is the only leg of your multiple to let you down on Sunday. Click HERE to find out more.

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