The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 16 September 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Mark Wilson – Joint-leader in Illinois
“Rose and Mark Wilson are now tied on -11, with Webb Simpson two shots further back. All three are now covered and I’m going to leave it at that for now.”
Great Britain & Ireland assume command in the Vivendi and there's an early start in the States today, as Steve looks to nurse his bets through to the final round....
10.50 - September 17, 2011
With the Vivendi Seve Trophy starting early this morning, there's fully 13 hours of live golf on Sky today, enough for even the most ardent fanatic surely.
Day one may have gone the way of the Brits at the Vivendi but day two belonged to the Continental Europeans and G B & Ireland now only lead 5 ½ - 4 ½, with this morning's matches ebbing and flowing nicely.
The Brits were on top for the first hour or so but the Europeans fought back well and the entire match was tantalisingly poised for a while but it looks as though the Brits are starting to take control again. They now lead in all four matches. I'm still happy to just dip in and out of the coverage and let the event roll along without any further interest. It's an entirely different matter in the States however...
I took the plunge and got Justin Rose onside last night and I'm glad I did but I also jumped the gun with Gary Woodland, who looks too far back now. I went out for the evening and I knew I wouldn't be able to even view the scores, so after Rose started ok I thought the safest thing to do was to get him onside. Woodland started really well but double-bogeyed as soon as I'd backed him!
Rose and Mark Wilson are now tied on -11, with Webb Simpson two shots further back. All three are now covered and I'm going to leave it at that for now. John Senden is only one behind Simpson and then there's a further gap of two to Bill Haas and Robert Allenby, tied for 5th.
Play starts early today, with the leaders going out at 3.15 UK time, presumably there's the threat of bad weather? It's live on Sky at 5.00, following the Vivendi.
I'd shown yesterday, that the furthest anyone has come back from after day one in the last 15 events at Cog Hill was six strokes. That was Robert Allenby, who happened to be five back at halfway in 2000, which, unsurprisingly, was the furthest back any winner's been at halfway. If you like looking for quirky omens when looking for a punt, Allenby was six back after day one on Thursday, and he's now five back, spooky. I wonder if he's aware of the coincidence.
I'm hoping for a stress-free afternoon and evening and I'm going to try not to dive in on anyone else.
10.20 - September 16, 2011
Thursday's are always a big day of the week for us golf bettors, hopes can be dashed in no time and the old adage of you can't win an event on a Thursday but you can lose one is so true. When I'm on a bad run I dread opening up the leaderboards and even if I'm on song, with my typically glass half-full persona, I still do so with plenty of trepidation but yesterday was a good Thursday, a very good Thursday.
At the Vivendi Seve Trophy, Paul McGinley's GB & Ireland almost totally dominated proceedings and they take a 4-1 lead into day two. Today's format is again Fourballs, with McGinley, very sensibly, deciding not to change any of his pairings. Having backed McGinley's Mob before the off, I'm more than happy with my lot right now and I'm not going to upset the applecart by getting involved in the individual matches, but if I was to do so, my idea of the best bets today would be Simon Dyson and Jamie Donaldson to beat Thomas Bjorn and Rafael Jacquelin and Miguel Angel Jimenez and Pablo Larrazabal to beat Darren Clarke and David Horsey. Both of those pairings look strong.
Over at the BMW Championship, Justin Rose has blazed out of the gates and shot a scintillating 63 to lead by two shots over my man, Webb Simpson and one of Paul Krishnamurty's two Find Me A 100 Winner selections, Mark Wilson. I'm chuffed with Webb's start but I really should have taken heed re Wilson, especially given another very shrewd judge in Ian at Sportsbetting.com also picked him out.
I've already been busy at the event and I've already backed three more players but I'm taking a chance and leaving out Rose...for now.
The series of numbers below represents the number of shots off the lead that the last 15 winners at Cog Hill were after round one - starting with last year's winner, Dustin Johnson, who was four back.
4, 2, 3, 3, 0, 3, -1, 2, 4, 6, -3, 2, 1, 1, 1.
In 2000, Robert Allenby came from six back to win but 14 of the last 15 winners have been within just four strokes of the day one lead. Cog Hill isn't a catch up course.
Given the above, I backed Wilson, who played the back-nine first, when he had two to play last night. As Harry The Hat points out here, the 8th and 9th holes are birdie holes. I got lucky; he scrambled a par at the 8th and drained a bomb for birdie on the 9th.
I also backed Camilo Villegas at the same point but he made two pars and finished up on just -3. And I also got KJ Choi onside once he'd finished his round on -4.
If the winner is going to be within four at this stage, then only Rose, Simpson, Wilson and Choi can win but it's never going to be that simple is it, and I'll take another look tomorrow.
Simpson drifted right out to [25.0] before the off for some reason and I took a chance and went in again. Once he started well I layed that wager back at [20.0] and then again at [5.7] and that gave me the funds to almost finance yesterday's trades, so it's been a great start.
I'm off out tonight, so I'm not going to be able to trade later but with Rose teeing off at 17.37, I should get a chance to monitor him early on. I haven't got the Englishman onside just yet but I don't want to jump in. It's a risky strategy, but hopefully he'll struggle a bit today. It wouldn't be a surprise if he did, it's never easy to follow-up a low one.
Vivendi Seve Trophy pre-event bet
G B & Ireland @ [2.2]
BMW Championship pre-event bets
Webb Simpson @ [23.0] & again @ [25.0]
Jerry Kelly @ [160.0]
In-running plays
Camilo Villegas @ [25.0]
Mark Wilson @ an average of [20.0]
KJ Choi @ an average of [19.0]
Webb Simpson layed back @ [20.0] and [5.7]
Justin Rose @ [5.3]
Gary Woodland @ [20.0]
GB & Ireland look to make it six in-a-row and Webb has designs on back-to-back wins in the States. Read Steve's thoughts on this week's golf action here......
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