Moto GP 
/ Trent Burton / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Dani Pedrosa is under pressure to secure a race win
"Had he (Marc Marquez) moved up next year, you really got the feeling Pedrosa’s factory ride in 2013 would’ve been under threat. Pedrosa needs to win this weekend. It seems we’re saying that about Dani a lot lately but it’s a fact. At 2.34 he’s good value to finally get it."
Life is rosy in the Casey Stoner garden but this weekend he may just have to allow Dani Pedrosa a bit of the limelight. The Spaniard badly needs a win and it's a decent bet he'll get it.
Five wins in a row at your home Grand Prix, you move into fifth place on the all-time winners list, you wrap up the 2011 World Championship and it's your 26th birthday. Last Sunday, Casey Stoner had quite the day. But the Repsol Honda squad have had little time to celebrate as the bikes are back on track this weekend for the penultimate round in Malaysia.
With the championship now safely wrapped up, Stoner can afford to relax this weekend. The problem for everyone else is that a relaxed Casey Stoner is generally a much faster one. His race pace today was excellent and, despite finishing the session in second, he was a happy and confident world champion. It's not surprising to see him a [1.89] favourite yet again. The interest with Stoner this weekend though could come tomorrow.
A pole position would equal his hero Mick Doohan's tally of eleven in a season. His team-mate Dani Pedrosa was quickest today on the softer tyres that they'll use for qualifying. Stoner himself didn't do a run on the softs but was right on the pace with Pedrosa on race tyres. Stoner isn't one for stats but he's more than aware of his chance to equal Doohan on Saturday and if you're after a Stoner bet, I'd be more inclined to have a look at [2.2] for him to secure pole position.
After his accident at Phillip Island, Jorge Lorenzo will miss this week's GP, and most likely the final round at Valencia as well, which means that, race-wise, we're in for an all Honda battle. Pedrosa and Stoner's race pace was almost identical today and I expect them to battle it out for the win with Pedrosa by far the man with the most to prove this weekend.
Firstly, Stoner took Honda's first 800cc title, a job expected to be done years ago by Pedrosa. Secondly, he's the third Repsol Honda in the pecking order at the moment with the outgoing Andrea Dovizioso just ahead of him in the standings. And thirdly, and this is just a gut feeling from myself, he's got to be secretly happy that fellow Spaniard and Respol rider Marc Marquez has decided to stay in Moto2 for 2012. Had he moved up next year, you really got the feeling Pedrosa's factory ride in 2013 would've been under threat. Pedrosa needs to win this weekend. It seems we're saying that about Dani a lot lately but it's a fact. At 2.34 he's good value to finally get it.
Don't expect Stoner to take it easy though, just because the title's secure. He'll push Pedrosa hard while the rest battle over that final podium spot. I expect that to to be an all- Honda battle between the old sparring partners of Dovizioso and Marco Simoncelli. Simoncelli took the honours in Australia, but Dovi always goes well here and Marco has often struggled in the heat. At around [2.0] I'd be taking Dovi to complete a Repsol Honda whitewash.
The weather could play a big part on Sunday with storms a real possibility, in which case quite literally anything could happen with a half wet, half dry race as we saw in Phillip Island. Either way, it looks like we could have a good battle at the front this weekend, even if the title is already in the books.
Recommended Bets
Back Dani Pedrosa for the win at [2.5]
Back Andrea Dovizioso for the Top 3 at [2.0]
Trent Burton looks ahead to Sunday's big race and explains why he believes home fans could be in for a treat......
Casey Stoner rides a Honda and is bound to win the Championship, but it's one of the Australian's team-mate's that Trent Burton fancies to win in Motegi...
Trent Burton reports from Aragon where Casey Stoner has been dominating practice sessions - when the teams can get out on the track that is...
No comments:
Post a Comment