Premier League 
/ Mike Norman / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Expect goals when Bolton host Sunderland this weekend
"Don’t look for any other bets in the Bolton v Sunderland fixture, the stats suggest that Over 2.5 Goals should be available to back at around [1.6], so the fact that we can lump on at [2.0] is a gift from football heaven."
There's one outstanding bet this weekend as far as Mike Norman is concerned, and it comes in the Bolton v Sunderland game where goals should be the order of the day.
Aston Villa v West Brom, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [2.1], West Brom [4.2], The Draw [3.4]
On the plus side new Aston Villa boss Alex McLeish has overseen just one defeat in the league this season, on the negative side Villa have won just 25% of their league games under their controversially-appointed new boss. Put simply, a lot of Villa fans are still angered that ex-Birmingham manager McLeish has been put in charge and only a Midlands derby victory over West Brom will temporarily appease their disappointment.
The Baggies have also won just a quarter of their league games this term and Roy Hodgson's men face a difficult task in trying to improve that ratio in this encounter. As the Opta stats show, Albion have won just one of their 12 Midlands derbies away from home whilst Villa have lost just one of their 15 home derbies.
In addition, you have to go back nearly 30 years to find the last time West Brom won at Villa Park. A home win has to be the selection then, especially as the team news suggests they'll be at full strength, but perhaps the Goals markets offer the best opportunity to profit from this game.
Opta show that eight of the last nine meetings between these two have resulted in both teams getting on the score sheet, whilst six of those encounters finished with at least three goals being scored. Both teams to Score is available to back at [1.82], whilst the Over 2.5 Goals option looks generously priced at [2.1].
Bolton v Sunderland, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Bolton [2.26], Sunderland [3.7], The Draw [3.4]
Bolton ended a miserable run of form (six league defeats in a row) when they beat Wigan at the DW Stadium last week and now their task is to halt a horrible home run which has seen them lose six consecutive home games stretching back to last season. Alarmingly, despite some top clubs visiting the Reebok, the Trotters have conceded a staggering 15 goals in their four home defeats this term.
So perhaps the last thing Owen Coyle needs right now is a home tie against a side - Sunderland - that they have lost to on the last four occasions. The Black Cats don't have the best away record in the division, but they did beat Bolton at the Reebok at the end of last season and they will be confident of doing the same again.
Entertainment is usually guaranteed when Bolton take to the field, as Opta point out, the Trotters have the fourth best scoring record in the division as well as the worst defensive record. In fact, a total of 36 goals have been scored in the eight league games involving Bolton this season, and every one of those eight games has produced Over 2.5 Goals. Incredibly then, Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [2.0] here. Am I missing something? Seemingly not as Opta also point out that Sunderland's last five Premier League games have also resulted in at least three goals being scored.
Don't look for any other bets in this fixture, the stats suggest Over 2.5 Goals should be available to back at around [1.6], so the fact that we can lump on at [2.0] is a gift from football heaven.
Newcastle v Wigan, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Newcastle [1.6], Wigan [7.2], The Draw [4.1]
Odds of just [1.6] for a Newcastle victory, fans talking about an excellent team spirit, Mike Ashley not receiving criticism. Is this the same Newcastle that we all know and love? If the Magpies carry on the way they are going Ashley will be granted freedom of the city; they're a fickle bunch up there I can tell you.
On a serious note it's enjoyable to see Newcastle doing so well for a club that has had so much upheaval in recent years, and more importantly, hasn't spent much money this season. Contrast that to neighbours Sunderland who have spent twice as much this term and are languishing at the wrong end of the table. Early days and all that I know.
As far as this game goes I'm not prepared to back Newcastle to win at [1.6]; they may well do so, and I hope they do, but I don't believe Wigan are as bad as their league position suggests and this could be a tight game. Opta point out that Alan Pardew's men have the joint best defensive record in the division this term, and the fact that the Latics have scored just three goals in their last six league away games suggests to me that a Newcastle Clean Sheet is worth a punt at [2.3].
Opta stats also show that since 2005, six of the 11 meetings between Newcastle and Wigan have resulted in a scoreline of just 1-0. This persuade me to have a wager on the Under 1.5 Goals option at a generous looking [4.2].
Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.0] in Bolton v Sunderland
Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.1] in Aston Villa v West Brom
Back Both teams to Score @ [1.82] in Aston Villa v West Brom
Back Yes to Newcastle Clean Sheet @ [2.3] v Wigan
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ [4.2] in Newcastle v Wigan
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