Premier League 
/ Lee Dixon / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Leon Best hasn't scored too many lately but can get on the scoresheet again on Saturday
"This market has been priced up based on name and reputation rather than facts and recent performances and Newcastle are a great value bet to win at 3.95."
Forget the hype, reputation and star names in Chelsea's line-up. It is Newcastle who are at home, look the more organised side and are carrying the greater momentum, says Lee Dixon.
There's that famous story about Nikita Kruschev's last days in power. I don't know if it's 100% true but it goes something like this.
When he was being removed from power in the USSR, Kruschev handed Leonid Brezhnev two sealed envelopes marked '1' and '2' and instructed him not to open them until things were going badly and he found himself in a political situation that he was unable to get out of. If he did, he should open the first letter. Some years later, the time came and Brezhnev opened the first envelope. Inside was a letter that simply stated "Blame everything on me." - he did and it saved his political career for a while. A few years later he was faced with further problems that he didn't know how to solve. He then opened the second one - which read "Sit down. Write two letters.".
I'm not sure Carlo Ancelotti handed Andre Villas-Boas any letters before clearing his desk at Stamford Bridge and the young Chelsea boss has so far resisted the temptation to blame others rather than himself but I suspect that at the moment he'd welcome some advice as to how to find a solution to Chelsea's problems. Back-to-back defeats to Liverpool in the space of a couple of weeks were sandwiched by a loss away at Bayer Leverkusen that has put them in serious danger of crashing out of the Champions League.
And things may be about to get worse this weekend.
Match Odds
We've waited and waited for Chelsea's fortunes to change but that simply hasn't happened so far. Fernando Torres is yet to find anything like his best form, Didier Drogba hasn't looked his old self either and though John Terry has been making some headlines by scoring goals, neither his performances nor those of David Luiz have impressed when it comes to basic defending.
But let's not make this all about Chelsea. We've also all waited for Newcastle's fortunes to take a turn for the worse but that hasn't happened either. Yes they were out-played away at Manchester City (who hasn't been this season?) but they went to Old Trafford last week and got a draw. Yes, it was a dubious decision for the penalty but these things happen and I think they deserved a point.
This market has been priced up based on name and reputation rather than facts and recent performances and Newcastle are a great value bet to win at [3.95].
Over/Under 2.5 Goals/Correct Score
Opta tell us that Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine Premier League matches whilst Chelsea have kept just two in their last nine matches in all competitions. The difference between the two sets of defences is that Newcastle have fielded virtually the same back five all season and don't look like conceding. Chelsea's defenders look like they don't know each other, let alone played with each other and always look like conceding. Either way, the stats suggest we'll have goals here so I'm backing 2-1 Newcastle at [15.0] and over 2.5 goals at [2.06] are the way to go.
To Score
Demba Ba has been the main man for Alan Pardew when it comes to scoring goals. Opta tell us that he's scored 16 goals so far in 2011 and that only Robin van Persie (31) and Wayne Rooney (19) have scored more. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him again but I'm actually going to side with Leon Best on this occasion. He's going through something of a barren spell at the moment but he could be the man to get on the scoresheet here with Chelsea more worried about Ba.
3 pts Back Newcastle to win @ [3.9]
1 pts Back Newcastle to win 2-1 @ [15.0]
2 pts Back Over 2.5 goals @ [2.06]
1 pt back Leon Best to score at anytime @ [4.0]
Michael Cox says:
Daniel Sturridge has scored almost identical goals in Chelsea's last two Premier League matches - moving from a right-wing position into a goalscoring zone to meet a cross from the opposite flank.
I think this is the main area of danger for Newcastle, and the stats back it up - Chelsea attempt 26% of their shots from the right, a higher percentage than any other club. Newcastle are without the suspended Jonas Gutierrez down that side, who does a great defensive job, and with Ryan Taylor very poor against Manchester City a fortnight ago, I think Chelsea will prosper down the right - so Sturridge to open the scoring at [7.5] looks good to me.
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